2:22pm
My 110.40 still holding like a champ, it is also the 10,300 dow jones 50% retrace of the whole bear market. If we do break this to the upside, i don’t see the bears bringing this market down. But the dollar right now is rallying due to weakness in greece and it’s putting a damp on gold.
1:46am
I am currently sick with the flu… 
which sucks. But here’s a 60 minute SPY and fib retracement. Today we basically hit the 50% retracement. The 50% retracement when we fell in P1 was the major resistance, so i expect it to be the major resistance for P3. That said, a small peak to my black trendline 110.40-110.50 is also possible. Today’s action was definitely bullish, and if we do hit 110.40-110.50 we have a potential for a large inverse head and shoulders. The bears really must get back to pushing the markets down very very soon if we are to go lower, if not we’re back to new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p86848845250&a=181585575
fas is disgusting right now. i would not touch this stock until it gets above the 50ma or below the 200ma. it bounced off a major retrace and is now sitting in between this 6 point spread of 67.13 and 73.87.
Woo – hopefully feeling better now ?
Tylenol keeping me going
What type of flu and what are symptoms?
Varient of swine making the rounds in toronto area, if you have school age
kids, be careful. Quick recovery and keep chin and profits up!!!
no flu. just a cold. Idan has flu though i think. worse than me. i feel much better today. thanks guys!
yeah i have the swine flu i think… all the symptoms are there.
This morning the S&P 500 has been testing its 50-day exponential moving average at 1097.5. The same level also marks a 50% retracement of the January-19 through February-5 decline so, it’s no surprise that the index is hesitant to extend higher today. The index needs to break this resistance cluster either today or tomorrow at the latest ( with a close above 1097.5 ). Further resistance is at 1104.73, the February-2 high. Further resistance is at the Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% at 1109.98 and 78.6% at 1109.98 and 78.6% at 1127.78. It won’t be smooth sailing but, we are now setting out target at 1150.45, the January-19 high. The target is negated on a violation of 1044.5.
Delete the 78.6% at 110.98 ( it does not belong ).
1109.98 ( typing is not my strength )
we are all confused because the market is confused imo. — 1100 –
the WEEKLY CHART shows a MASSIVE TWO BAR BREAK of 1100 on volume back in SEPT 2008 … we all remember. this the largest RED VOLUME bar on the weekly in YEARS. we have only traded above this level for a few weeks since. only one week of this trade had any volume to the upside. the rest were light volume , very hesitant. then the market got smacked.
If we really do go to 1200 by June/July 2010, this will be the chart of the year.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/future-cycles?context=user
Going live on covestor.com soon, I suggest all traders to do it.
It audits your trading gains/losses and show’s it to the public — basically it establishes an veritable and reputable track record for others to see. Great for careers + sticking to your trading system.
I can’t wait.
zee, that’s certainly possible. I have reduced my short exposure significantly. I don’t want a repeat of July 2009 in my face.
ALERT TO EVERYONE DO NOT OPEN THE SITE ZEE POSTED!! FULL OF TROJAN VIRUSES!!!! REPEAT DO NOT OPEN THAT SITE. IF ANYBODY N HERE IS NOT RUNNING AN ANTI VIRUS PROGRAM THEN YOU BETTER START USING ONE.
be leary of sites like this. they can place a log run on your computer and collect your login and password.
EXACTLY RICH MY ANTIVIRUS PROGRAM IDENTIFIED AND PICKED IT UP AND AUTOMATICALLY DELEATED IT.
Why zee do this?
Enough with rigged trojan markets killing us, don’t need the site attacks too.
lol are you serious?
Zee – The questions is whether you will be expecting a move down into mid March still or not … ?
Last year, I linked Dubai debt crisis to subprime mortgage crisis.
(November 26 2009) to (July 20 2007). 84 days after July 20 2007, the market made the final top. November 26 2009 + 84 days = February 17 2010.
Theoretically, the market top was today if you go by that comparison, unless I made a grave error. The grave error: Spain debt crisis is in fact the crisis that should be linked.
February 4 2010 + 84 days = April 28 2010. Something still doesn’t add up.
The Great Bear Market Rally retraced 62.38% of the first mega drop. 62.38% of 84 days is 52.4 days (rounded to 53). November 26 2009 + 53 days = January 17 2010. February 4 2010 + 53 days = March 28 2010. I like January 17 2010 better.
However, looking at the fractals, I see two possibilities, both bullish. One is the fractal from July 2007, and another one is July 2009. Both fractals point to new highs. Timing analysis and fractal analysis showing contradicting clues. Maybe I should stop staring at the screen.
Fritz,
i keep comparing and analysing and looking at the chart of MTH im simply jamazed that more people aren’t selling here today. its trading at the same level as it was APRIL 2008 .. same optimism now as then ?? wow!
im still SLIGHTLY MORE BEARISH than bullish. im thinking we at least pull back into next week and test 1085 . that is a key level to the downside imo.
SAID id go monster short if we close this week under 1105 and im going to stick to my guns with a few CALLS too. adding to my PIGS at 1100 cant be a bad play. if i added to them at 1050 then id say i suck.
OH … AND THANK YOU FOR COMPARING THIS ACTION TO 2007
———– ANYONE NOTICE THIS TREND ——– men are not big spenders for the most part. ive never told my wife to stop spending as much as i have lately at this cycle top. but what im seeing in the market is MEN’S ENTERTAINMENT going to FOO FOO land. guys tell thier wives to stop spending but ive actually frozen my own spending even more.
TAP ———– horrible quarter ———– ugly chart
FOSTERS —- just reported a bad quarter and they are in BOOMING AUSTRALIA
clearly beer drinking is taking a hit.
PLA ———- head and shoulders top on the weekly chart. looks ready to breakdown.
RICK ——– MEN”S fun houses and beer drinking quarters. came out with an ok
earnings report but investors appear nervous to hold.
I was fully invested in strip clubs when in my early 20s, lol.
———- GOOD NEWS COMES OUT @ CYCLE TOPS ?? ————
MTH — bullish housing info today — bearish move. just cant break that resistance
at $22.50. this stock is in a box . look at the WEEKLY CHART.
As expected, the FOMC didn’t appear to do a darn thing.
Fritz,
i just compared my two little banks IBOC and ONB
charts to that of two larger ones GS and BAC ——– WEEKLY CHARTS
if you chop off the bailout blow-off on IBOC and ONB you can
see they have clear resistance on the WEEKLY which they
are at now. GS and BAC have decidedly different looks.
this may be more reason to choose some banks to get short
rather than sticking your cash in FAZ. FAZ might be easier but
not all banks have bearish charts.
do you see the same thing comparing these FOUR on the WEEKLY
BLK is the other one im betting against. this WEEKLY
shows massive resistance at this level back in 2008
at $220 and it fell below it with ease.
———— TA’S AT THE FED………..SENSE THE MARKET TOP ?? ———-
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35442995
———– VISA ——— looks like a topper on the daily and MASTERCARD looks sicker than dog foo foo. FAZ going to go green today ??
Good post Rich, thanks.
————- 15 MINUTE SPX ———– trendline support for past 5 days = 1080
by next week this could adjust up to my key support of 1085
any pullback will have to hold this short term trendline imo
———- ALL SHORTS WAITING TO ENTER AT 1105 ??? —- SO WE STOP AT 1101 ?? on the first leg lower everyone was waiting for a back test of 1115 so the market stopped at 1105 and quickly moved lower.
THE 80 SMA DAILY is really holding this back JUST like it did at
the Beginning of the month.
Or we reach 1110 and get everyone confused ….
Burn, theta, Burn…
what a dam slow moving day… I shorted around open then went to sleep… I am glad I went to sleep else I would have cover my shorts early…
Shorted 2500 X at 51.95
Shorted 1000 SCHN at 47
shorted 800 POT at 114.79
I am hoping for a red day but i have my stp there so no matter what happens I won’t let WS MFs win today.
————- HMD.T0 ————- short base metals. bought some shares in this. it has only just dipped below the 40SMA on light volume.
The fact that the market is STILL consolidating above 20 SMA daily should make any bear nervous. The fact that my portfolio is slightly up from yesterday should make me even more nervous. Big green candle followed by a small candle, can mean huge green candle tomorrow on the big name financials. Glad I have three call options per 1 lot short on AXP and JPM.
i added long on the dip. i added short on the rise. im adding more short in the middle here. will the frontrunners lose control of the market? will they use the futures again to gap this up. really tough to know for sure.
IM NOT ALL IN. but im getting more interested in being so.
CAN YOU LOOK AT MY POST 7 and tell me if you agree
on the down channel weekly for these small banks.
Certainly at resistance, but I don’t want to enter any new positions except keep hedging.
I swore off FAZ in July 2009 to improve my health
.
I swore off 3X ETFs long time ago.
i keep going in and out of SRS and its only paid me off a few times all eaten up by commissions. keep telling myself to stay away.
im better off trading clean charts like MAR which is showing a ton of weakness here for two days when the market is strong. they put the
dividend back on to try and prop up the stock. but all they can afford
is $0.15 which is about 0.5% . everything about this chart says TANK.
nonetheless…. VERY BULLISH PATTERN on SRS 15min.
Stop thinking SRS, not worth the gamble, never was.
Today’s slow drift up with no sales at all tells the story. Now they will
gap up in the morning like always. Same script as last month.
Why lose money in -2x SRS when you can lose it even faster in -3x DRV?
3 minutes to 3 pm ET. Market above 50% retracement.
This likely means that we’re headed to 1110 tomorrow or Friday, unless the global markets collapse overnight (seems like the only thing capable of putting a dent in this train right now).
Yes Idan the rebound of the dollar is keeping the market in check. If it had continued the slide from yesterday the market would have bounced up bigtime. IMHO that Greece issue is not just going to go away.
the FED keeps saying that the US is in recovery and all the ENRON style accounting confirms it. this gives the dollar a boost. lie and pay the price.
———— VPRT ———— looks like the SPX . failed the $56 resistance.
but not much of a pull back.
——— AMZN ———— how many here are short this? great short!! 56X earnings and pays no dividend. this thing really needs to come back to reality.
the daily 20SMA may hold prices back until this thing corrects to a more reasonable value.
I`ve got Mar 115 puts. Next target, maybe tomorrow, 113-114.
———— BLK ———– bought another contract when it hit $213.50 … hopefully dats it. MAX PAIN IS $210 on this beastly priced holding.
Inv H&S on SPY – tgt 110.82
do you mean that pattern 11:30 low on the 15min ??
if so its 1099.50 on the SPX to break out … right ? have to make a nice two bar break on volume of 1099.50 to confirm?
yes richard ….
if that pattern is valid the low volume attempt after that pattern completed should be the break out attempt. after that failed we had two bar break of 1097 most the volume trade on the 15min was under 1098 following that pattern. im not feeling strongly we can complete this.
feels like we are in theta burn distribution box. that is most like to continue all the way to FRIDAY unless some brokers have real big sell orders to dump and think that this bullshitish opex is the time to do it.
We’re still in P2?
I think so. I am hedging myself big time so a repeat of July 2007 or July 2009 won’t kill my account.
always good to play it safe. market hasn’t confirmed P3 yet at all. can’t be jumping the gun.
Yeah, that drop from 1150.45 to 1044.5 looks like a big fat ABC to me, plus the fractals just look too similar to 2007 and 2009.
I am maintaining a 3:1 hedging calls to shares short ratio.
yeah i was telling people that a 3 wave has finished south, and we could be starting a 5 wave up. we’re also above all the retraces of the C of ABC down. It’s definitely not bearish right now.
im not so sure. most the volume of trade came under 1098
so no one is really chasing this move. price chasing is needed to push the indices higher and they are not getting any help from traders it appears.
the market achieved MAX PAIN SPY 110 and now it looks like they are just going to support this each time it dips under 1098 to achieve this goal.
I honestly get the feeling that if war broke out overnight they’d still gap up by 10pts on the
S&P just to rub it in your faces.
Let the big boys cheat and steal from each other.
POST OF THE DAY!
A part of me actually wants the market to make a new high, just to see what Prechter will say or if EWI will cancel their newsletter services altogether. When Prechter capitulates, that’s probably when you should sell everything.
couldn’t agree more – just waiting for prechter to revise his wave count from the 16th century and come to the conclusion that W3 just started..
goog is below a long term trend line. if it falls below 535, there’s a good chance it will head straight towards 526 area. if it breaks south of there we’re looking at 512, then a large support area in the 488 with some fibs and 200ma/60 min.
556-558 is strong resistance.
amzn is currently below a 3 year trend line and there’s good resistance at 116-118. we might backtest that area before the month is over and then start hurting. anything back above 118.9 is very bullish.
yes. that one looks very sick. fundamentally it should be lower too. its nice to have fundamentals confirm the chart.
WE HAVE NO TWO BAR BREAK of 1095 on the daily. the
average we keep hitting 80 SMA = 1099.30
the only confirmed break on the daily is the one at 1110 on volume.
this is what im getting from the candle pattern. it would be strange
to see prices back at 1110 on volume. this would confirm the sellers
are the buyers and games are being played.
either way, this movement is going to remain ugly. we may not get more of a clear direction until friday, if not monday. high volatility with no major action can be devastating to a portfolio on an opex week, even if ur not in front month options.
i still say we’re going to head south into tomorrow. RSI, trend lines, resistance, they are all there.
but this doesn’t mean we won’t touch 1102-1104.
I hope you’re right. I need to increase my March call positions. I need a dip tomorrow.
if this can get above 1108….your call positions will be worth bajillions of dollars…
What are you looking to buy calls on Fritz ?
Just on AXP and JPM, the two shorts that I am still holding and not stopped out.
If I feel like it, XOM and VALE are good.
OPTIONS MUST CLEAR BY THE 24TH so i have that date as CRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRACK on my calendar
if we are below 1085 by the 24th this train should start moving again.
How do you come up with the 24th date Richard ?
Opex goaltending – yes.
Checked Max Pain on all blue chips – right where they’re trading currently.
this is why i added to BLK … $110 PAIN and $3.50 above it seemed a safe place to add on. i added $0.18 from the top of the day
— SO LONG AS — MTD and BLK — dont breach highs im going to sleep ok.
IM NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT VOLUME IN — VISA or MRK which
are pretty big names. DTG is seeing 4x regular volume.
where is the volume of trade flowing ???
———— XLY ———- look at this chart. this rally is being held together buying consumer discretionary stocks ?? wow!
HD is up 2% ERTS up 2%
i dont follow many but the downtrend in XLY looks done.
I told you guys about GGWPQ this morning. It keeps going up and up since big boys came in. I just sold my positions though as I think big boys may take a breath before another run. Stick with big boys,
good play. going long a bankrupt company with takeover rumours is risky but you got the fair reward. im glad you got out with a profit. id stick with quick scalps with that sucker.
It has got a lot of properties, so this is not like bank that you see they go to zero value. Beside you have to just day trade these and with stop loss in play, then there is nothing you would wory about.
If the market closes right now, the setup would be called “FAZ destroyer”.
sounds like a horrible stock sex toy.
any dip under 1098 will be computer bought. it will search for the right stocks to short squeeze for maximum gain. the CPC went wild as they hedge thier bets in case this game went wrong imo. but im still mostly short as im concerned that this may be the last great entry. this game can fail.
WADDA YA KNOW …. SPY 110
Gap on Vix at 21.62 is still not filled – so we may still have some upside left …
I’d like some credit for calling >$110 on SPY for OpEx week for about the past 2-3 weeks. My Custom Max Pain has never failed since it was developed 10 months ago. Maybe I should put this on a website and sell it???
‘pat on shoulders’
Cyan – definitely a good call
How much would you be willing to pay (per month) for this information (assuming it was [nearly] always correct)?
Of the info were free and gteed to cover losses it creates i’m in for free trial.
I was thinking something like $5/month. Not trying to get rich off of it. Just wanting to cover costs so I can share this info to all…
What’s the track record on it ? Max DD? Accuracy? External Factors?
When does it give signals? How often does it give signals?
email me at zeeshan_maq@hotmail.com or make a blog post because Im not going to be on the comp thur-friday-sat
seriously.. if you have good info.. buy some options and just make money off of it.. why try to make money by selling it to us?
good job. hopefully you made a nice profit.
fritz, has there ever been a case where OPX goaltending failed and every prop desks rushed to cover their axx ?
October 2008, November 2008, February 2009.
thx
They will not fail this time.
Without panic selling, opex goaltending usually do not fail.
Not in the past year.
July 2009 was odd because the entire street was short, and so the market makers (prop desks, “big boys”, etc.) sold a ton of calls and had to scramble to get long the SPY (due to the high gamma). This caused the market to rise even further and blow out the typical max pain numbers. This is why the tradition max pain (optionpain.com) isn’t accurate because it doesn’t take into account volume of the underlying shares and a ‘sample’ of the gamma involved.
Here’s a Goldman explanation:
“Pin Risk” means that the delta-hedged trader will either have to hold zero shares of stock or be long/short the entire notional amount of shares at the end of the day. (If options are in-the-money, he will need to be long or short 100 shares of stock per contract. If they are out-of-the-money, he will need to hold zero shares.) Traders will be adjusting their hedges all day long to account for changes in the stock, to avoid unwanted positions when the options expire. While delta-hedging occurs every day, it becomes more of an issue at expiration for ATM options, since deltas are changing very rapidly. Traders are likely adjusting their hedges more frequently due to the binary nature of their exposures at expiration.
——– RICK ———– big distribution today. not that bearish after all.
THE MARKET IS AN ……….. SRS / FAZ hater.
should we all just buy SRS and FAZ puts 10 days in front of OPEX ??
this dummy bought them too soon and then bailed on them.
you coulda bought FAZ $20 PUT MARCH at the lows for $0.35 if i remember correctly. that would be nice 300% gain.
if this heads north, and breaks 1104, it could go straight to 1108.
if it breaks south we’re looking at a possible 1088ish, i would like to see 1085.
right nwo market has 50 fib and 50ma support under here at 1097-1098.
1085 by the 24th . we can just wiggle and squiggle and make everyone nervous until then
SPY 110.40 on the nose AH . wiggle and squiggle.
———– PCLN ———— one ive been watching today but no position. put in a doji on the daily just above the DAILY 40SMA . Volume in the trade and the SMAs look bullish with all 3 pointing up. but its overbought. Travel has been strong so this will be interesting to see what the market does with this high priced stock. My MOTHER went to HAWAII not because she is swimming in money but because her business is FAILING. strange but true and im thinking this may explain the rise in travel of late. PEOPLE HAVE TIME to travel and think the economy is rebounding. this may come to an abrupt end so we need to watch how the market treats these stocks including the pricey BA. HUMAN BEHAVIOUR is quite strange these days just like the markets. UNEMPLOYED people finding time to do things they always wanted to do and spending their last dollars doing them.
PCLN —————— +6.4%
one day very soon imo…. this will be a MONSTER SHORT that will give you an amazing return once people realise the economy recovers very little and it does not include them in the NWO of Corportism.
now up 8% and TRADING ABOVE THE WEEKLY HIGHS
AND ALL TIME HIGHS.
— LVS off 5% — this is travel related too.
clearly PCLN is the dominator in this sector as they
thrill the market every quarter.
——– JACK off 5% ——- read on CNBS today that thier were alot of puts trading hands in this stock. guess fading that trade would be painful.
JACK was very overbought on the weekly.
THATS IT FOR ME. GOOD LUCK TOMORROW.
BIDU, GS, AXP, JPM, XOM, CVX, GOOG, … any stock that is slightly down after a big up move yesterday, will likely have another big up move tomorrow.
The surprise will be a huge (>5%) down move tomorrow. Even if it ends up surprising us with a huge down move, I will still increase my hedging ratio to 5:1
True, I will need the market to drop a lot more to break even on that hedging ratio, but I could lose a whole lot more if July fractal is allowed to be replayed.
5% moves are very very unlikely 2 days before OpEx…
That’s why I said it’s a surprise, meaning I do not expect it.
to the downside? Not sure about that. I wouldn’t be bearish anymore…
A. Joseph Cohen (GS’s investment guru) says 1300 on SPX by end of this year.
I POSTED EARLY TODAY 1200 – 1300 would bring the weekly into overbought territory like we did in 2007 … then kaboom
im open to that idea but im thinking we pull back into next week. seee if we hold 1085 into next week.
3:1 hedging ratio (calls:short shares) sounds bearish to you?
I am expecting a relatively big up day tomorrow (1%), followed by a pullback on Friday for opex goaltending. Big name financials may explode to the upside tomorrow because they were consolitating, working off overbought conditions the ENTIRE DAY.
All I am saying is, the market can surprise us with a huge move to the downside, but I will use that opportunity to increase my hedging ratio to 5:1
Ah, I thought you mean shorting 5 shares for every long call. I had your ratio backwards.
One scenario I had been entertaining for the past week is for us to head straight to the top at 1334 (DJIA 12234 – 12243) by summer of 2010, before a drop to 920 quickly.
This scenario assumes that we exited our bear market with a V bottom, historically unheard of. This is why I still keep a bearish bias.
I am not at all as bearish as P3 believers. DJIA 5000 (or SPX 444) is the lowest I let my forecast go to. The market needs to drop below DJIA 5000 for me to revise my forecast. The lowest I let Nasdaq go before I revise my forecast on it would be 1300 before 2011.
Nuclear war and market flat only to surge in a/h and gap open.
5-7% opex failures happen every 17 months. You’ll hate me but we are due.
Huge bear flag in dow and S&P with the average 2 day extension that has been
the norm.
Go short into opex. This opex overbought in anticipation, same as it was in
Jan ’10.
WE ALL HAVE A CALL
1. blow off top tomorrow to trigger all the stops above the WEEKLY trend line break of 1105. maybe WOOS 1108 will do it. gap up and panic run to 1108 and then back to tend 1098 .
2. fall short of the trendline at 1102.5 or so and then back to 1098 to trigger stops just above 1100 level. of course we cant see all the stop losses in these areas but im pretty sure some big players waited for sub 1100 to get short.
3. neither of these and just slide along happily at this level and burn those holding options in decay. SPY 110 —- MAX PAIN saved again.
of course this is all wishful thinking because if we just start rallying like a banshee with a hot stick up the JAHOO … im in trouble.
if we rally hard ill be forced to overpay for CALLS in my illiquid option positions just to prevent massive losses.
At 1085 tomorrow (if we ever drop tomorrow), I will be adding calls. I did some fiddling with the numbers and it seems like a good place to hedge, especially if we are indeed headed to 1333 by June.
Gold just took a big hit (FYI, GLD closed @$109.25, now trading @108.40 as I am typing this). We might see a down day tomorrow?
IMF to start selling gold worth up to $6.9 bln to market
DJ reports the International Monetary Fund said it will soon begin selling to the market the remaining 191.3 metric tons of gold it has slated for release, though the sales will be conducted in phases to avoid disrupting markets. The sale of gold, currently worth nearly $6.9 billion, will begin “shortly,” the fund said in a brief statement. “In accordance with the priority of avoiding disruption of the gold market, the on-market sales will be conducted in a phased manner over time,” the IMF said. The IMF noted that central banks in Europe have said they can accommodate the fund’s gold as part of their scheduled sales in the Central Bank Gold Agreement. The IMF board approved sales of 403.3 metric tons of gold in September to create a more stable income model and boost support for low-income countries. About 212 metric tons have already been sold off-market to central banks of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. The IMF didn’t rule out further off-market sales, which would reduce the amount sold to the market.
At the risk of being wrong 3 days in a row now, I predict we end in the red tomorrow. I was surprised we didn’t on Tuesday, very surprised we didn’t today, but I’ll be pretty damned shocked to see a close in the green tomorrow. Anybody with me on this??
Nope, I think the bond market is getting the jitters and we all know the bond market runs the table, any move out of bonds will go to cash and large caps. I think we could see a slow move up over the next few months as interest rates fears mount. No big deal, but a 5% ten year is very possible by this summer.
Gotcha Jim, and thanks for the reply. I guess one of us will be right, as we disagree completely. I think the next few months will bring a steady decline, possibly as much as another 30-50% down.