12:58pm
SPY 30 minute shows we are hitting up against the channel resistance, this is the place to I would go short with a stop right above:
Intraday Commentary ~ 02/11/2010
– February 11, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
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————– HTD.TO ————– i have this one. its my only hedge against my positions really. its the bear fund treasuries. take a look. its wacking the 40SMA now. this could signal a market top. the 20 – 40 – 80SMAS are all flat as a pancake. the RSI 55 . looks bullish but is stalling at resistance.
TOOK MY ————- VISA PUTS ——— off the table before i left.
its the only one that really has me worried and wastes my time.
Freudian slip…
This is an interesting video on what’s about to happen..take a look and please respond
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/deja_vu_aff/?campaignid=3
Sorry double post….
It’s a valid concern but we also have to keep our eye on the markets today. The psychology is the same but the markets are very different. The fed wants to do everything they can to keep this market up. I don’t know if that was true back in 1929-1932.
Would his theory be invalidated if the down goes over 10837? He doesn’t say anything about that.
Look at that short squeeze on CAT. LOL
Everything I touch these days become short squeeze candidates. Glad I’ve switched my strategy to using calls as puts.
maybe you should go with the big boys. sam any thoughts?
Haha, I should stick with big boys and make money.
No I am not worried about it, because there will likely be a pullback on CAT tomorrow. Depending on how deep the pullback is, I may add to my CAT calls.
——— CAME BACK FROM SNACK ———– she aint ready to go out yet.
HSU.TO … the ETF that tracks the SPX in CAD$ is just 1% away from
major resistance that was support and broke last week.
this is just 0.5% on the index ===== 1083.50
IVE PUT IN A BID ON………………………… FAS PUTS…………… to hit around this level.
if we break above this i see that 20WEEK MA as the last line in the sand to get
short. and then maybe i lose all i made early this month trying to get short in
the right spot on this retrace
those fas puts are going to be really fun haha. good luck!
Why FAS puts instead of FAZ calls? To my untrained eyes FAZ calls look cheaper than FAS puts…
————– SPY 30 MIN ———- IDAN
that looks like a strong break of 107.40 … hit resistance and now putting
in a bull flag. that 103.50 to 1084 area has to be the next target no? we
sure have alot of momentum here.
1083.50 to 1084 …………… really looks like the target.
I REALLY HAVE TO GO NOW. im going to just sit on what ive got
ill be adding to those that look the weakest when and if we hit 1083+
XLY ———– 20SMA $29.34 …. should line up iwth this 1084
It’s still NOT a perfect break.. it might be up to tomorrow’s action.
SPX seems to me a double bottom formed and now out from 2nd bottom.
SPX bears need to hold 1080-85 area or most likely off to 1100.
Their is a gap at 1090
Just pick the other side of my trades, seems to be working since Monday.
Look at CAT, up almost $1 since I shorted it.
that won’t work….if the market knows you are playing the opposite of what you planned on playing, then the market will think one step ahead and somehow get both people.
this happened to me in vegas with my friend who is ridiculously unlucky gambling. in roulette, he bet on red, so we bet black, and it landed green… never bet on the same table with that guy again haha.
I doubled my CAT short at $55.96
Good luck.
LOL, look at CAT going up again!
lol.
Fritz:
What’s your downside target on CAT ?
Thanks
I’m only in for a higher probability one day trade, so don’t follow if you can’t time your entry.
I have no idea what the downside target may be.
Fritz:
Are you basing this on the 2 day RSI ? It looks tempting.
Pattern developing from Monday.
At this point 56.7 is a magnet – 200 MA 60 min …. and inv H&S tgt is 57 – 50% retrace is 57.2 ….. pick you entry point ….
Feb options max pain is $57.5
SPX between 1082,5 and 1072,4 .
I will short at 1082,5 or if under 1072,4 for today !!
At SPY 108,4 I will dump my SPY Calls from today morning last half position.
Nasdaq close to filling gap at NDX 1780-84. Top of it’s (bear flag )channel. Hope it’s a bear flag anyway.
I am looking at USO, it is chalenging 200MA on daily and it looks to me that big boys are going short at this point. If that is the case them look for a drop in in overall market as OIL usually have a big effect in the overall market.
Fritz,
Yesterday, you forcasted there was a gap down this morning. It was accurate.
Let see your forcast to Bidu.
———— IM BACK AGAIN LOL ——- UNFI puts filled
another PUT order filled for me ………………. UNFI ….
hitting up against the $26 20SMA and this is also
previous support that was broken hard.
the 20 40 and 80SMA on the daily all point lower in UNFI
however, the weekly 20SMA has conveged with 40SMA
Looks like we got a shot at 1100 on the S&P maybe not today but soon !!!!
…uauuu….what reversal…at least I stepped out in the limit that I expected..107.4…negligible profits (2%)
…I am happy to go long a soon SPY as it reach 109….beyond this point…this whole “bearish mess” will be completely invalidated….
..I will congratulate all bulls for their efforts…
Certainly so.
Bears got scared when they saw that PPT tape on Friday, and swore amongst themselves to not trade this market again.
Setup for tomorrow looks like at least a pullback.
BTW, anyone long VALE on this morning’s gap down? $2 move since
…I have 02 orders:
– bullish & bearish….ready for anything in the future….
today had a nice PPT move, failed bond auction, D grade and huge bid into
S&P futures 15 minutes later.
This ties in with china saying reducing bond purchases, we celebrate higher
interest rates with a 50 point S&P rally.
Unless this fails going into close there is no hope on the short side. When the
PPT bids up, you never see any weakness but a high continuation formation.
Great post..I am on board with this summation !!
It’s funny how 36 SPX points can change the mood so dramatically.
I actually wouldn’t mind the market closing in the green now. That RSI, MACD, DPO, and volume patterns sets up tomorrow well. I actually wouldn’t mind the DOW closing this week in the green.
Bidu from 1.48% dropped 0.73% in one hour. Tomorrow could be GAP down and filled the gap.
No, even if it ends in the red today it should end in the green again tomorrow.
That setup will be the most ideal as BIDU collapse will then coincide with post President’s Day market.
Fritz – can u share how you came up with a 380 target ?
200 SMA Daily expected hit on March 3.
================ ONB ================= took some off the table
so im running with the house money
ANYONE GET THE — CITI FINANCIAL NEWSLETTER ?? —
they going long the SPX with 1053 stop loss…. looking for 1150 …. OMG
IF YOU SHORT BANKS…. BE QUICK
lock in profits.
LOOK AT FAZ
now look at PALM puts……
OK, im gone for the rest of the day again. GOOD LUCK!
Wow 1150 ????? gutsy call !!!
And for those of you who tried to trade the small H&S pattern on the 15 min, the last four hours just screwed you over (mini repeat of July 2009).
That’s why, never focus on small time frames. Look at the daily and weekly charts (big picture).
we got to change the game.. 46 tries today and I was wrong 35 times
You too? I thought it was just me!
Anyways, I am not too concerned about holding short positions now. The setup on the three indices look like better than 50% chance of a 1% downside tomorrow.
If the DOW closes below 10100 tomorrow, I will go out on a limb to call a crash after President’s day.
are you planing to short anything and hold over night today? I am all cash now
I am holding overnight. It could kill my account on the short side, but I do have hedging calls to deal with that.
Hey Fritz, I really need to learn from you about your hedging… I am still thinking about how you made money from AXP when we shorted at same time. I lost over 20k from AXP when you end up making more than that. If you could I really wish to learn how you hedg.. thanks nabbasi@gmail.com
No crash. there is no volume or benefit to crash the market, no
small guys to screw.
Any downside is nailed shut by PPT. Failed bond auctions, strong
dollar, up market huge.
They will only allow a crash when it benefits the big boys, trade with the
big boys !!!
BTW, what time span for 1170 was Citi projecting?
..I am in cash either but with orders set in every direction…ready for whatever unfolds…
Anyone looking for the best stock to buy for 2010, it’s VALE.
If it holds $23 by March 5, it will go to $36.
*one of the best big cap stocks
…as brazilian..I have ashort history about VALE…
..it belonged to the government since its foundation until 90´s. It was sold very cheap for some very smart and “fortunate” “friends”. Like what happened in Russia with Boris Yeltsin…
..VALE & PBR are at least 40%-50% of brazilian stock market volume
..we say in Brazil: for my friends everything…for my enemies only the law…it is funny but looks like what is happening in US with all those bailouts….
looks like a 3-3-5 correction just happened if u ask me…
On what time frame?
starting feb 10 bottom,
from feb 9 peak, down is a 5 wave, then a 3 up on feb 10, another 3 down, then a 5 up
woo, where do see market going from here?
Where do you see us headed tomorrow?
My expectation is a pullback, but the surprise will be to the upside. If it surprises to the upside, I will participate in the short squeeze.
if it is really a 3-3-5 correction…
we’ll see a 3 down tomorrow (may be really quick), and then we may see the continuation of further rising.
on the 1 month/5 minute chart we saw a break of the upper trend line that has been around for almost 1 full month.
if anybody is holding short/put positions, tomorrow’s drop may be the last chance to get out if there is a rise. however, there could always be another correction.
if the market drops, i would trail stops to be safe on puts. if the market breaks 1081, i would consider a call position, with stops under 1081.
Woo – can you share a chart of what correction you are looking at ….
..there is only one big issue with all those counts….(I mean for W5)….W3 is too short…shorter than W1…
no it isn’t
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
i’ve labeled the wave 1 and wave 3 with blue fibs. the wave 3 is slightly longer.
Woo – whenever you can post a static image – thanks a lot
Woo – also, does this mean the the entire correction expected is complete ?
sounds good..thanks
bears dead yet? bear traps everywhere….
…burned & alive…and sometimes eat grass …like every bear
I’m short
As I said above based on the action I see in USO and the fact that it failed to break through 200MA I think big boys seem to going short again. Be carful going long at this point and see where big boys wil go then follow them.
Thanks for sharing during mkt hours Sam
Also, are there specific stocks that you look for action in by the big boys ?
Big Lots, Big Macs.
From Daneric’ sight:
“Every index traced a triangle as shown below, even most subindex’s. Every index achieved a post-triangle minimum new high requirement for wave c of (ii) of [iii]. The primary count is that (iii) of [iii] must commence down soon”
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S3Rxj2iZ3mI/AAAAAAAAD70/wS3Kva2p3xs/s1600-h/spx1.png
Soon or uh oh?
…good…match with my count is…beyond 109 this bearishness is completely over….have orders to buy calls at this point..
…I mean form daneric perspective it will never happen…
He’s got 1082 as the 68% retracement line (Line in the sand for short term bears?) aIf fails I see 109-109.82 gap on spy the 110 area as net resist.
….in order to recall…
..Last Monday was mute…
..This Thursday very bullish…a very placed bear trap….
..Tomorrow, Friday, will complete Daneric study….so bearish Monday?
Is something changing?
I think I’ll go long on HD tomorrow on any pullback.
Wow, I guess my crystal ball must have been broken this morning, sure didn’t expect this action. The PPT definitely had some fun today. In any case, in light of this, I’m feeling very strong about ending in red tomorrow. This seems like a giant bull trap to me!
It sure does for me as well. So i’m fully loaded – in not only shorts – but hotpans!
Next will be G-string.
Bernard
Hilarious comment Bernard, much appreciated
———– ONE SMALL GROUP WITH DEEP POCKETS ———- it dont have to be no PPT for this. if one group has all the money and power they start a panic decline. then you saw that hammer on Friday. they hit a button called REVERSE POSITION 1/5 …. we have seen two of these pops since. if the same people who control the long side also control the short side they have a timing effect. it takes many days for the crowd to get bearish. and as soon as all that bearishnesss is solidly in place. CLICK THE MOUSE and REVERSE POSITION.
———– MTD ———– filled the gap i was waiting for this morning and i sold my PUTS. now hopefully they hit “REVERSE POSITION” so i can add on to my longer term short in this doomed scale maker.
Thanks for the comment Richard, it makes perfect sense to me. Its a pretty cruel game they are playing, and I guess its just up to us to figure it out as often as we can.
Just don’t be part of a historical short squeeze
Not that I’m saying that will happen.
LOL at everyone screaming ‘PPT’!!
Record puts were being purchased (the most since this crisis actually begun).. just saying.
Can u share what you are looking at Zee ?
they desperate to keep the market up so they can load up on PUT OPTIONS? ONB … sold 7 of my contracts and buyer was quick to snatch up my puts. 5 days of bouncing off of $11.00 ….. driving me nuts.
they were the only 7 contracts to change hands.
HERE IS WHAT IVE DONE FOR FIVE DAYS. with some of the
stocks on my radar. especially VISA:
wait for it to hit resistance. let it get slightly above. buy puts
let it fail. wait and wait. let it suceed. wait for pull back . get
out where i get in. let my broker have $20.
anyone else LOL… dont trade during consolidation periods.
What I will look for tomorrow to decide whether to be bullish or bearish into opex week and beyond:
1) Bearish scenario
DOW closing below 10100, ideally within 7 points of 10067. This setup points to a 400 point loss the next week.
SPX closing below 1075, ideally within 1 point of 1073. This setup points to a 30 point drop the following week.
Nasdaq closing below 2150, ideally within 2 points of 2147. This setup points to a 100 point loss the following week.
2) Bullish scenario
Breaching DOW 10200 on volume or a close above 10150
Breaching SPX 1090 on volume or a close above 1084
Breaching Nasdaq 2200 on volume or a close above 2180
That bullish scenario is a scary/exciting one depending on your current position. If that plays out it will likely be a repeat of June/July fractal, and in that case you’ll be looking at DOW 12334 by August, but getting there very sluggishly (and one of the most difficult markets to trade).
im not counting on a big drop OPEX week. but if we trade flat through it id count on a BIG BIG drop 2-3 days after the 19th ….. FEB 23 or 24th …. KABOOOM
of course CITI says go long at 1075 close your eyes. when you wake
up you will see 1150
Markets today as related to Greece and the dollar:
http://inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog_single.php?id=5589
————- RF ———— look at the daily chart pattern
1 3 hard down days
2 5 day retrace
3. 3 hard down days
4 5 day retrace
WOOOOOOPSY …. took off my position yesterday. all of it. now i have to buy it all back at the same price tomorrow ?? not sure im wanting to.
ID stay away from this despite this symmetrical pattern
1. flat 20SMA on the daily
2. rising 40SMA on the daily
3. rishing 80SMA on the daily.
is this a bull suck in on light volume… feels and looks like it. but at the same time
it is so obviously bearish it has to be a bear suck in. its like it has been painted
FAKE BULLISH to suck in the bears. I DONT KNOW… SKIP IT IMO
————– MAR ————- i stayed in these PUTS despite looking at this 10% short interest and wondering how many they can squeeze out at the cluster of SMAs on the daily chart. 20 – 40 – 80 SMA all sitting around the $27.25 mark and pointing lower. a fast and desperate attempt to keep everyone who bought the rally in the last 80 days faithful could be in the works here. when a stock holds 4% below the 40SMA you have to think not many will panic sell.
—————- DTG ————– how the market can make you feel like a donkey. i remember someone making the call to go long this stock at $2.35cents. im not kidding. i have good memory. at the time i took some DOW CALLS . this is back when the world was going to end because banks were oooooozing toxic sludge.
im pretty sure the call was at $2.35 but maybe im a few pennies off. DTG is a prime example for all of us to be very clear about the markets. THEY DONT TRY TO VALUE ANYTHING FAIRLY especially if its off the radar like this thing.
THIS IS CAR RENTAL OUTFIT … i mean comon. its price at NEGATIVE 13X earnings and can you tell me if this is FAST GROWTH INDUSTRY? the “investment raters” of CNBC have a price target of $34.00 and expect $0.08 cent loss when they report in a week. my money says they post some profit even though ive bought puts at $27 resistance. what kind of profit do they need to justify this price valuation of $34.00 TARGET ? even to hold this current price they need to beat the 8cent loss estimate by $0.50 cents. so say $0.42 quarter. this sort of profit must also contain an outlook that is 90% accurate to continue with close to $0.40/quarter. they have 6.7 Debt Equity ratio and a book value of $12.00
ITS STUFF LIKE THIS THAT SHOULD MAKE A BEAR DROOL. BUT …. why am i hesitant to take a monster position? because this thing went from $2 to $27 and showed zero fear on this latest pull back. 400,000 shares traded hands above $26 today. where the hell does money come from buying stocks like this. $2.35 was a good buy. im mad at myself
if this thing POPS on earning of $0.42 or less………………………. IM GOING MONSTER
SHORT VIA PUTS. this tops my list right now. i hate it more than PBI and PALM
charts pretty bullish overall….hourly especially. look for a slight pullback in the morning but will be bought into heavily and will inevitably draw the market up to 1100 level. If close above 1105, previous high will be taken out for sure……
If another auction fails tomorrow we might see 1500 by the end of day, LOL.
Banque Credit Agricole in France issued a research paper showing a
40% chance of hyperinflation being used by world gov’t to try to speed away
from massive debt issues. Gold, PM’s, stocks will be seen as hedges
but not realty due to taxation at hyper levels.
Official inflation rates of 15% and interest rates at 7 ?
Something about launching in a downward direction:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S3R-g-6TkJI/AAAAAAAAD8U/-J7e_XLGzJA/s1600-h/nymo.png
“[Update 5:10 PM: I have shown in the past how Minute [iii]‘s tend to launch from at or just above the zero line on the McClellan’s Oscillator. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2ikPhQi1VI/AAAAAAAADzs/5xLz1PmYdLM/s1600-h/mc.png At least they did during P1. When the market topped at 1104 some trading days ago, the NYMO was still -21 and it didn’t work out when I thought it would. At the time a 50DMA backtest move would have made the NYMO maybe go back to zero. Of course neither happened the backtest move occurred nor the NYMO moving back toward zero.. ”
“But now the NYMO is just about zero and close enough for my liking to kick off the rest of a Minute [iii]. Thats a great spot to launch a destructive wave (iii) of [iii] down from. Also note the negative divergences on the adv/decline, the up/dn volume and the daily tick as compared to the other day. In fairness I should credit EWI for pointing this out although its something I would have probably noted too. Also note the CPC finally got corrected downward a bit]”
OK here is somethings the bears can sink their teeth into.
US dollar forecast (E-wave) Dollar up stock market down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvo-sddlzEY
On a bullish note we broke the down trend lines on the dow, russell and nasdaq (actually broke the nasdaq down trendline yesterday for a good leading indicator).
So watch the news the spx and the dollar manana. Spx broke the downtrendline but hasn’t overcome the 1080 area yet.
LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGE I USE ………….. 80SMA WEEKLY
amazingly it is still on the RISE in UUP >>>> long term trend up intact.
Interesting video on the foreclosures and how the banks are profitting on it.
http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/player/tbws/23088/1288413