Woo:
AH:
This is for those who can’t use the links I provide in the intraday. You can see how ugly and ambiguous this close is on the 1 month chart.
Idan:
2:11am
I will be flying today and won’t be active. But yesterday’s action was very much what we expected (per my video). We saw a slight dip into the morning followed by a rally to hit the 107.40 on the SPY and then backed back down. Well now it looks like the move down from 107.40 to 105.90 is a 50% retrace of the rally. The likelihood scenario is that the move up from 1045 to 1071-72 was A wave (38.2% retrace of the last strong move down), 1071-1056 is B (50% retrace of the move up), and we will see another C wave to a max of 1081 approx or a probable 1076. If we break 1054 to the downside, i expect a fall to continue to 1032 (23.6% retrace) of the whole rally since march with a possible bounce at 1045-1046.
In the big scheme of things, you must continue to play the descending channel until we break out to the upside. Here’s a 60 minute SPY:
—- LOOKS LIKE THOSE CALLING MID-DAY TOP —– they got it right. SO FAR and looks like i picked the right price to add on PUTS. DID NOT add on VISA. im out of the trade where i got in. no harm done. MOST BEARISH : PALM BA MTD WY
Richard – where would you enter PALM ?
where is the big drop on the SPY? looks like its still holding up, got me worried.
eur/dollar
you should be worrried.
Amazing…after that candle down everything’s back up again.
————- ONB ————— patience wearing thin. im looking for a drop into the $10.25 to $10.50 area to unload half my puts. but it has sat at $11 for 4 days. this consolidation has been on lighter volume then the days it dropped from $12.50. one more dip and i take my profits and ride with house money.
———– RF ———— PERFECT SET UP. making a DOJI on the DAILY here . this retrace to the FLAT 20SMA DAILY is bearific. im adding to my position.
ORDER FILLED ———- 10 MORE CONTRACTS — MAY 6 PUT $0.56
Looks great
– where is your exit tgt on this one … I see support at 6.14 and then 5.22 …
this is the EXACT opposite of the wave 2 down which took 1.5 weeks. it explains the volatility, watch out for continued huge swings with consolidation lasting no more than half a day. need to be careful with any large positions this whole week. i would raise stops when the opportunity arises because stopping out on such huge volatility swings will mean that you sell at prices well below your stop if you’re not careful, so lock in those profits when you can when riding swings the right way, and stop out quickly when you swing the wrong way.
and if you are trying to sell some calls… .beg for a bid
im trying to sell under fair value and not a buyer in sight for the ones im ridding .
Do you think the S&P500, after today’s wild swings, will test friday’s lows this week? Its still showing a lot of strength even after the germany news broke. I dont understand why it hasnt tanked yet, what good news is out there keeping it up?
if this is indeed a 4 wave, then we will see friday’s lows tested before this week is over.
———– SPX ——— possible short term HS PATTERN pointing to 1062
—- HOD.TO —- held my key price of $10.25 … bought more $10.32
if and when XOM hits $62 im expecting this to be overbought. however this XOM hitting $62 seems more and more unlikely. $63 is the low for this leg down so far.
this market is going to end up putting me in a padded cell with a straight jacket on. INSANE!!! the violence of the moves is incredible. if your on the right side huge profits can be made in seconds…..on the wrong side..watch out!!!
Yea, it’s pretty wild. This morning when I was in TZA I was up and then no more. It turned around though, and again, and again, haha.
———– PHM ———- i got out of this trade pre-earnings. it is now sitting on the DAILY 20SMA after missing estimates. wild stuff. strong volume and enough buying power to hold the 20SMA. consider this . THE AVERAGE SHORT SALE in the past 20days will also be represented by this average. Those short sales have been underwater for the last 5 days. looks like those patient shorts who were under water now just want out.
woo, now that Greece fears is over do you thing this market will rally back from here?
no idea. charts aren’t pointing specifically in one direction clearly. we’re sitting in between the 38% retrace and 50% retrace currently of the last significant drop (1067 and 1074 respectively). also still not clear whether this is a 4 wave or new 1 wave.
short term there is a 3 day ascending trend line from the lows that is holding, which is still bullish.
market is also holding a number of significant levels below here as well. right now the market is bullish short term until proven otherwise, but mid term, it’s even.
———– GLAD ———- this one just hit my radar ——— 9.8% yield lol.
————— PALM ————– look at this FREAK SHOW . i sure got in at right time. don’t chase this move. this is beyond my expectations.
great call rich!
this is on the NEWS that APPLE is gaining market share. remember when APPLE put out the TABLET at half the price the market expected. they under price thier phone too. they own PALM and probably hurting RIMM too. i remember making this post and —- WOO — was quick to let me know the TABLET is no phone
hey, i know that. the thing is that APPLE is simply a monster in every market they are in. they dont spread too thin. is PALM DOOMED? hopefully it shows something next week … rally back up to $10 so others can jump in.
the MAY 11 im in trades at $2.80 and is $1.60 ITM
Yeah apple is definitely a beast. the iphone is eating up a TON of market share in the cell phone market.
palm recently came out with their pre and pixi on the verizon network. if they don’t do well even while on verizon, it could really be the end of palm. we won’t know for at least a quarter.
I am still not sure where the markets does wanna go.
Market turning point is still valid 11 th Feb. short term low around 1025 or corrective high around 1088……….
SPX DRIPPLING OFF 1071.
——– RF —— i hit the next entry point i believe. LAST CALL .. i mean LAST PUT. they are on the “have not paid TARP” list and this is a TOPPING CANDLE on the daily im almost 100% sure. it only has to trade at this level to confirm TOPPING ACTION. however, im thinking it may just finish in the RED.
as a trader …. you can not ask for a better set-up NO ? others ?
Richard I posted above …
Anjali replied:
February 9th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Looks great – where is your exit tgt on this one … I see support at 6.14 and then 5.22 … I am thinking of entering with Mar 6 …
correcto mundo. im looking for the $5.20 to $5.25 for any hint of support. im not going to blindly sell the whole position. probably take half off if we get their quickly to avoid decay. then wait and see. of course this sucker may have us fooled and we must be nimble.
hit the 20SMA on the daily twice. dont want to see it up there again.
———- BA ———– not looking like its finding the expected resistance.
if it holds up here im not holding front month position. too risky. it never
did hit long term resistance at $65 and the chart is yet to turn bearish.
if you go back to JANUARY… .two big volume days at $58. this has found support again at the same price which currently is the DAILY 40SMA
———— CONFUSED MARKET ———— im thinking so. half the CEOS come out on earnings and say 2010 will be a tougher year. the other half say its going to be a better year. so its not just us. the market cant find direction due to mixed message imo.
———– BA ———- a great example. lots of debt. failed to meet contract deadlines for new jet so many orders cancelled. then airlines are coming out and saying business is improving. are they re-stating those orders for the new jet? the current action of buyers at $58 seems to say yes.
if BA holds $59.87 today im out of this trade too. the market, imo, should have reversed off of 1078 already. we can go to 1088 and then softly fall into OPEX and still maintain the bearish feel. maybe we hit 1088 before OPEX week.
this 20SMA WEEKLY actually now stands at 1089.25
———— OIL ————– news says “ENERGY PRICES SURGE” i say and the charts say. OIL prices stall at 50% FIB on the daily and NATURAL GAS prices are down.
————– MTD —————- lags the market on lack lustre volume. total YAWN
im taking a break.
———– BREAK WAS GOOD IDEA
———- break 1070 should see 1062 fast
VISA right back on the trendline after failed attempt. so im back in for another try.
first try result was ZERO PAIN .. hopefully this try is cha ching! $85 FEB PUTS
holding again if this closes below my trend line. now stands at $83.50 ..
sitting on it now. got my fill at $2.40
yeah…the 1071.21 area is the 50ma. we’ll need to break below that to see any downside at all, but there’s also a daily trend line around here which is giving additional support.
if the market dont crack and hit my 1062 then i will crack. because ive managed to unload almost all my calls here and my FAZ PUTS.
if 1074.65 breaks again to the north, i would be careful…
depending on how long you’re willing to hold.
…I am almost ready to short….SPY reached 61.8% retracement and dropped….still waiting for confirmation on PPO
…probably last behaviour will repeat again…tomorrow will be a dull day…but it will crash on Thursday …like what always happened …..
…and remember…109 is a key area for the bears…beyond this the whole bearish formation will be invalidated
————– 1074.50 ———— stay above this for more than 15minutes and bear scare will begin im sure. BA will be my first bail. nothing bearish going on in BA.
yeah… a strong consolidation or rise above that mid 1074 area and the bears are going to start bailing. and with this volatility we could get a rise straight to 1081 if not higher.
VISA ———– $83.85 ………. dont want to see above this level short term.
interesting. V printed $83.85 for about a nano-second on my screen.
BB lines tightening on SPy, big move coming, I’m leaning towards a down move.
———- BA ———– THE RSI daily hit the resistance line making another lower high. this one has so many mixed messages im not sure why im trading it. trade stocks that have confirmed down trends and failing technicals that are not oversold. so many to choose.
50ma broke. i see richard beginning to drool…
Even though we have rallied, you must trade this increased volatility because it is here to stay; not to go. I mentioned owning
I’m still short FAZ/FAS from Nov.. the decay factor is finally coming in and making me a bit of return.
nice drop, there’s the 50% fib, 50ma/5min, and daily trend line break that i was talking about.
1071.4 backtest…
expected.
———– V ———– if there are enough people paying attention to technicals… this should sell of hard here. crawling over each other to get out above $83 imo. if i dont see this happen into the close im out of the trade.
watch out at the low 81 to high 80 level. strong support there. if it breaks, it will be joyous. it has hit a few times now so it might be the time to break, but they won’t give in without a bit of a fight.
if this touches $83.85 again im out.
Woo, any thoughts for UAUA.. i went short at 14.50
not sure if i should hold ..
i haven’t been charting it, so i don’t have any opinion currently, but will try and take a look AH.
Sam was saying the big boys are going to prop it up.
If Sam had mentioned yest a lot of people may have been rich today with a 15% move
yes…mentioning things during market day prior to major moves helps. problem with using market psychology is that you react to the market after moves to interpret what is going on. it’s basically like reading the news on google finance, where you can get how a majority of people interpret the move and which way the direction is heading based on that sentiment. but sentiment is always a good thing to pay attention to.
i have charted it and said it should find resistance at $15 a week ago or so. avoid it and BA . target for BA was $65 . so what did i do. just took puts on BA LOL. but UAUA should fail $15 if you want to get short. ill wait and see.
oy. yeah i remember when a lot of people were shorting amzn and i was worried of a break out.
same thing with UAUA, it’s at highs for the year. when stocks break out like this, it’s sometimes hard for them to get back down. some investment companies only buy a stock on breakouts like this on high volume.
i guess it depends on how long ur willing to hold, and how big a position of your portfolio it is overall.
actually it looks like the trend line is holding…we’ll see how it reacts if it hits 1074 or not.
here is the 1 month chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
———– WOO ———— i was drooling because i took 10mins to mix
some dough. not the kind the market makes me. a loaf of bread.
should be ready to bake in an hour.
save me a slice. i can eat while the market decides what to do.
———— UAUA ————- look at weekly and see that $15 should provide some resistance. if it does not. stay away
im looking for a position if it fails $15. may take a few weeks.
Hourly Fly Paper Channels are holding.
SPX
http://www.theuptrend.com/60-5/N7-0020.gif
TSX
http://www.theuptrend.com/60-5/N7-0021.gif
NDX
http://www.theuptrend.com/60-5/N7-0004.gif
XAU
http://www.theuptrend.com/60-5/N7-0031.gif
————- V ————- is an options holders nightmare. fence sitter. this could be construed as a bull flag on the weekly. it is still bullish on the weekly chart. i dont know if id be so comfortable holding puts into the end of next week. it can easily close at $85 based on the weekly chart.
holding the trendline ive drawn. right at $83.50. ive had enough
im getting out break even again.
made a tiny bit on the trade. im not so comfortable messing
with this so close to OPEX with this market action.
i think that’s smart. i don’t like the bearish play on V at the moment. too dangerous and we’ve barely broken anything to the south.
BAILED ON —- BA —- short term puts for loss. long term puts for a gain. the chart says nothing about tanking to foo foo land imo. and now UAUA is all fired up. that wont convince BA holders to bail.
Yes – I thought BA may test 64.24 … but once it went above, I thought to wait and watch
UAUA – typically on this kind of BO you see followthrough for 1-2 days … so wait before shorting …
mr woo..
thoughts on GS…been in a wedge for days..broke out south and trending…do you think it’ll head to low 140′s in the next week or so?
it’s currently below the 50ma on the 60 min. but i might wait till a 147.5 break occurs (the 50 retrace) before shorting to be safe. that’s probably the gap down point, and you should see a fairly solid profit lock in (and can probably even raise your stops after your position is green.
right now that area is still acting as support, and will be bouyed a bit.
———- 1074.50 ———- looks and feels the market wants to close above this level. im taking my OIL SHORT off also. SITTING RIGHT ON THE DAILY 50 FIB.
——- PHM ——– misses and holds up easily on big volume. this has to make any bear sick to thier stomach. im bailing on my WY PUTS too.
———– WY ———- sold my PUTS.
MAYBE IM WRONG TO DO THIS. i just dont like the risk of holding
right now. the market is not trading light volume in these holdings.
im only keeping my positions that are confirmed bearish
PALM , MTD, GMXR, ONB, RF
im holding IBOC puts despite it holding 40SMA on the daily.
so this is the one speculative holding.
FEEL THIS IS THE SAFE THING TO DO IN THIS SPOT
alright folks…almost market end time…
what needs to happen, is the market needs to stay down below this 1073 area. if we rise into tomorrow at all, we could get two trend lines colliding and cause a strong bounce to push the market up more.
a downward movement into close, allows for the market to hit that double resistance as a ceiling instead of a floor.
updated 1 month…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
WELL ———— i cracked before the market did …. LOL. at least for most i simply got out where i got in and gave some commissions away.
cracked below the daily trend line…
Nice job today woo. Your the master. Let me know when you start your own pay site. Just make sure you make it a cheap pay site.
haha, i didn’t make any money today though except a small portion off erx, which barely covered two of my SPY stop outs. having a day job and being in meetings throughout the day doesn’t give me the flexibility of getting in and out as easily as i would like (especially in this volatility).
i wish that good TA equated to tons of profit haha. risk management is harder than charting lol.
Hi Woo,
Have you considered quitting your day job and doing full time trading ?
i think i eventually will. at the moment 401k, consistency, and insurance benefits are what keep me here. after a certain point, i think i will just trade full time, but the more money you make, the more money you can lose. =P
Al – did you know that you could still make a donation to Woo without him going away somewhere else ?
Hit the make a donation button on one of Woo’s posts
Al’s had some money plays, he deserves a little donation himself =P
Last minute reversal??? Scared bulls
———– MTD ———– that is one UGLY DAILY CANDLE on light volume. i feel better about building a position in this than anything.
one more update:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
market is still not bearish even with this drop into closing and a break of the daily trend line. the 200ma is still sitting below here as well as that good ol 38% fib.
this is almost as neutral as you could close the market LOL.
thank you Woo, your posts are so helpful.
Woo – could you pls post this one up top … I guess the timeframe which are less than daily are not accessible to stockcharts non-members
Interesting finish. Got a strong feeling we close in the red tomorrow.
i get a strong feeling that i dont know where we go. can only go by past experience of GOAL TENDING to OPEX in a down or up trend. once the bulls get ahold of this market they may throw all the margin they can get thier hands on to steer this market into the OPEX pockets. then they can unleash the hounds a few days later. when i dont see the action i expect id rather stay out.
this is a really good point richard. if they can draw this market out until next week, we can have a possible end of 4, or a continuation of wave 1 while still leaving the market ambiguous. then a HUGE swing into opex week in either direction would confirm the wave 4 or wave 1, but would leave the average trader with their mouth open…
hopefully we get some nice entry and exit points this week, and some hints into next week.
i’m leaning towards the possibility of wave 4 ending as early as tomorrow. but still need that confirmation candle.
Woo – for BAC you mentioned that a few more hits of the Fib should cause a breakdown.
When coming into a Fib or TL, how do you determine whether it till break or bounce ?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25088602712&a=190186487
it’s really case by case. the reason i say this for BAC is because the trend line below here isn’t exactly a strong trend line, it has also broken twice recently, but it’s significant enough to chart. below here is a fib projection that seems to point downward and above here is a number of resistance points, from a shorter term trend line that hasn’t broken, to the 200ma and a year long trend line that broke a few days ago that extends back to february.
i think there’s a chance that 14.55 could play again tomorrow, and would consider shorting around there, with a tight stop above that area. BAC could rally though, but the 14.86 , 15.03, and 15.41 fib points dont need to play again anymore since they’ve already proved their significance.
i think the more solid play on BAC is a break below 14.30
Hi Guys,
I was busy during all afternoon without any time to follow the market…
Anyway, my bias is bearish. SPY topped at 61.8% retracement but closed at 38.2%. Bulls were not able even to hold 50% what normally is a huge support/resistence
PPO hour is still up but it may show the bearish cross any time tomorrow
Conclusion
Bull scenario is not good but let´s see what MM will do tomorrow (probably a dull day). I bet for a sell off next Thursday, as always happened in the past. W3/W3 wil start in full force (102.70 is the minimum target)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=308be746-a324-49e6-be0e-92cf7220e734
I agree BB, other than Friday the selloffs have been in full force and didn’t really reverse, where as the up side has been gaps followed by gradual sells offs and whipsaws. This is not a sign of a healthy market.
My portfolio got whacked today on the short side!
Not that I didn’t expect it. I actually saw it coming based on all the RSI(14) patterns I observed on the positions I held yesterday, but since this week is when my forecast major decline event trigger takes place, I held over all puts. Bad idea, should have hedged based on the charts. The DOW, the S&P, the Nasdaq charts screamed at me “gap up” yesterday, I totally ignored it due to my bias.
Usually, after a forecast “gap up”, there is a smaller scale pull back. While I am still confident in my decline forecast, I am going to lighten up on my puts. To avoid time decay risk, I’ll just short the stocks themselves and hedge them with calls. That method has worked out quite well for me.
Same here, just 1 bad trade UAUA got me good today
I think tomorrow we’ll see a slightly up day followed by a reversal and then more heavy selling on Thursday. I’ll be buying more puts tomorrow.
Fritz,
What do you think about puts on BRCM. RSI is right at 50 and Stoch is over 80. Tomorrow should be a good day to buy puts on this thing right around $30.50-31.
mr woo..
i’m sorry but you’re talking about this wave 4 ending…are you talking about a gap up then sell off…???? to 1076? then a sharp sell off to what….
thanks..sorry for being out of it.
if you can see my monthly chart (i’ll post it for today or tomorrow’s intraday, you can see that we’re currently in either a wave 4 formation or starting a wave 1.
by wave 4 ending i mean that either wave 5 down is going to begin or a minute wave of wave 1 up.
right now the minimum 38% retrace has already been met and we’ve gone up past the 50% retrace as well, so if the market wants to start wave 5 down, it can do so.
the market doesn’t need to go up any higher than it already has, which is why traders need to be careful here, because we can easily see a 5-10 point move in either direction into tomorrow.
mucho gracias…..
Well tomorrow they are forecasting a blizzard for Providence RI..My biggest fear would be waiting for my entry to buy or sell and then losing power !!!!!!
Had that happen in 2008 with 550K in SDS when lites went out due to winter
storm. Cost me 70 large. Never again, one eye on weather at all times!!!
posted the current 1 month at the top for those that don’t have stockcharts.com
thanks, while ive done well gambling on earnings calls.. that is all it is. most stocks sit around an ambiguous area and pennies either way mean little. much like todays close of the market.
was going to take a postion on SWI pre-earnings. probably would have just got shook out on todays candle. im looking more for stocks like SWI that have confirmed trends. ie the 20/40/80 SMA on the daily all pointing lower. this SWI is not oversold on the daily and has these properties. it also had a weak retrace in a channel up and todays action ends below the lower trendline.
BIDDING ON PUTS FOR A MORNING FILL :::: SWI
im realising that im getting caught up in the intraday swings. this is a habit that usually has me making only a headache. it makes my broker comissions. after so many great days its hard to have a day like today. waste of time getting in and out of positions at the same price.
MY LITTLE GROUP: SWI ONB RF MTD PALM
— IBOC ….. can earn a spot bcs im keeping it for now.
i believe the short term trend is lower or sideways over then next months and im favouring bearish trending stocks. alot of stocks like VISA BA and more look overvalued but the CHARTS say little about the direction. the daily and weekly charts show conflicting messages.
I told you guys that big boys are covering thier hsorts which may take a few days, so exactly happened as I said. I also said yesterday that XLF will hold 200MA and sure enough it did, although bears tried several time to break it but it held niclly as I said, but situation is dengrous now. If we hit 200MA on XLF one or 2 more times then it could be broken and then we may go back to 13.00 easily. I also said yeterday that UAUA is going to rally hard in next rally and sure enough it did exactly. I did not use any kind of TA on UAUA and I just looked at chart fr a few second. That is a good example guys that I always say that you can look at big boys and then know what to do. I saw UAUA is holding firm in recent huge correction, That was enough to conlude that big boys are seating there. There you go, stick with big boys and make money.
Sure, sure, sure. . . .
What are the big boys having for diner tonight?
Just tell me what the opening and closing numbers for the SPU’s will be and i will
be a beleiver.
By the way Lochne, made some stupid money on CTIC–went too low, retraced, won’t touch it again. Thanks for your post.
Glad to be of help, did you do options or stock ?
Went short ioc @63.22 today. Just waiting for that to implode.
Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, after all that bullshit, what do you think will happen tomorrow? According to first sentence, all should go long, but to what extent?
be nice.
Sam, I have to agree with what you say but the term you use “follow big boys” is confusing… You should share more info that can help other to understand..
is big boys is your guess or anything to back your statement.
thanks
nabbasi@gmail.com
Sam, I appreciate your view. Hope you do well.
it was also a very oversold market
Put call ratio during todays massive rally was 2:1 (.53)
On a 9:1 up to down volume day the put call is at the other extreme? Oy vey !!!!
That and the last minute sell down tell me this market can reset into expiry.
World top bankers seem to be meeting at a secret location, what’s coming next?
http://www.news.com.au/business/secret-summit-of-top-bankers/story-e6frfm1i-1225827289543
maybe more ways to get bonuses with tax money.
Ha ha ha …. so true
hahaha…could be anything, but we know it’s not anything that will benefit the every day person. Usually if it’s secret, they have something cooking.
woo any update on UAUA chart? I am still holding it