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08
Feb
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Today: Post all your trades as you make them! I’m interested to see what trades you guys are making these days!
Here’s the 60 minute SPY with the red descending channel and major resistance areas! If we break back below 1054 we might see some more downside, to break 1045.
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1066.6 is 50ma/5min
1065.29 is 200ma/5min
also, i’m not sure if all people use this method, but the RSI is hitting a trend line on the 5 minute, and could start rising, or drop sharply, if the trend line breaks. but it’s bullish till broken.
basically the 1065.29 area is the place to look for a break, then we’ll most likely test the 1059 area pretty quickly. good for a nice quick short scalp if it happens. i’m leaning towards the 1065 area holding though. we shall see.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
agree…106.50 will invalidate completely this minor bullish formation started with Friday´s rebound
—- PFG —- im neutral now. this action aint pretty.
1065.06 …. right at 200ma.
cracked. broken.
———– MTD ———— holding these puts looking like the right thing to do thus far . look at BPL @ $55 offering a ridiculous 6.8% yield on some fancy accounting gain and falling top line. then consider shares in MTD @ $95 with no dividend and the same accounting principles. which would you buy if they were the only thing available?
February 8th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
IM GOING TO roll these profits over to PUTS further out. im becoming
more long term bearish on this one.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART
the most recent strength in volume was $89
and the next most recent at $75
you can see the 40SMA @ $89 which , if it fails, will lead to
a most certain mess imo. conosolidation was in the
$75 to $80 range on the rise. the pace of prices falling
is currently equal to the rise from $95. however this pace
usually quickens under the 20SMA. the 80SMA on the
weekly is flat at $81.50 .
my target out a few months = $80 to $85
the action today resembles goal keeping and i favour a failure
trying to goal keep $95 on a non-dividend paying stock with
a bearish earnings report.
find out in a week or so if this is the right thing to do.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
i took the APR 85 PUTS @ $1.10 ,,, moments after the
order filled… the price is now heading to test $95
February 8th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
hit $84.50 … close below $84 is ultimo bearish
———- LGF ———– order filled @ MAR5 PUT —- 10 for $300.00
ONE DAY SOON im going big on a position. if we head back up
to 1090 and fail on volume….. ILL start loading up larger positions.
i’m not going to take a position yet.
i decided against the possible scalp to 1059. until 1059 breaks i won’t short this market.
bears just had a huge chance to bring this market down just now, and fudged it up. that means the bulls are still in control and they’re back above that 200ma on the 5 minute.
this can gap up or gap down 10-15 points EASILY. need to be careful here guys.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
thank you WOO!!!!
PFG … bought my $23 calls under $22
and then got some puts $22 agains them
on your post. and its failling $22.50 which
is quite foo foo.
now it needs to make a move either way more than $1.80
Woo,
Which Moving Avg. should we use? EMA or SMA?
thanks for your advice.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
i stick to the sma, but both are useful. if you want to only use one, i would lean more towards the sma, but that’s a matter of preference. generally the more the better, but sometimes too much on your charts equates to a lack of clarity.
any other traders with their thoughts and preferences on sma vs ema?
i like to keep my charts linear as well without any log scales, but that is also a preference.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
in this market at this moment suggest the FOOFOO MOVING AVERAGE
February 8th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
took a small march spy call position on continued support in this area.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
Woo – I prefer SMA – 20,50,100 and 200 Ma and use the linear scale too
Can you share your thoughts on AAPL ? I took a position at EOD on Friday which is at BE …
Toggled back and forth long/short all day so far.
Opened day long GNW 13.75 closed it out when the spike didn’t happen for 13.80
Let the market fall went long GNW 13.69 rode to 14.02
Traded flip flop nibbled away about 10 trades 2 to 3 cents waiting for the market to choose direction which lookd short to me, finally ended up short same stock 13.97 still holding that position.
Each trade 5k shares
February 8th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
bought to cover @ 13.70 looking to go long now
February 8th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
Going short into close
February 8th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
looks like $15 is resistance on that chart. clear and simple.
put on my watch list. looks like its tipping. like to see a close on or below the 20SMA DAILY @ $13.50 before shorting.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Shorted it at 13.69
February 8th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Covered 13.59 quick scalp out and done for the day.
I’m 75% cash, 25% long. Waiting for a clear picture as well.
hey woo do you think we are in P3 and headed for a 3of 3 in 1 later this week
February 8th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
hard to say for sure at the moment. bullishness needs to break more first.
volume extremely light on spy as it has dropped from 107.3 to 106.5 – BB are very tight…..I favor an EOD move up but we shall see
——– PALM ——– looking uglier and uglier every day. im glad i have a position but i also have this on my TOP SHORTS if and only if it should bounce sometime in the next 10 days. it is getting oversold on the daily but that never guarantees a bounce especially in a chart this ugly.
SPY – march 107 strike. 3.00 entry.
———– PBI ———– daily. what does that DOUBLE DOJI mean ?? anyone ??
February 8th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
see the same pattern late august
February 8th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
notice more. this is the 40SMA WEEKLY …. $22.51
——— GE ———- needs to hold $15.22 imo. the WEEKLY 80 SMA. at best im seeing this bouncing back to $16. calls out to $20 look improbable. im in the $16 and not feeling great about it. have more bearish than bullish positions.
————– V ————– if it closes aorund $83.25 i may take another overnight trade in the front month $85 PUT. all it has done is back test the daily 20SMA on lighter volume. creating another bearish looking candle.
February 8th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
bid $2.70 now. will hold if under $83.55 at the close.
A decent long here is KO – near the bottom of a channel with tgt @ 55 which is also channel top – however it has earning BMO tommorrow … without earnings, this would be a good long setup ..
February 8th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
3% yield. ok balance sheet.
looks better than buying VISA
February 8th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
20 WEEK SMA flat
40 and 80 WEEK SMA pointing up on oversold FULL STO.
thanks for the heads up. did not have this one on my list.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
took some front month calls. decent volume in them.
$55 ——- looks like a “pain zone”. took the $52.50 . if it hits $55 they better than double in value.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
Hope it works out Richard – thought it was a great setup
– my account is too small to try earnings play right now 
———– BPL ————- coulda woulda shoulda took $1.20 for my PUTS and a profit of $450.00 on these puts before earnings. just bailed on them…. the action is just wild on this. they have failing top line revenues and they do some fancy footwork to increase the distribution. the volume is average . sellers are clearly exhausted. the buyers love the enticiing YIELD. cross it off my list.
Bought some SPY Mar 106 puts @ 3.18
Woo / Richard –
Can you share your thoughts on AAPL ? I took a Mar put position at EOD on Friday which is at BE …
February 8th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
that one tagged the lower BB and bounced. its oversold. looks like it wants to move sideways for a bit. take a look back at how long it stayed in this range $190 to $200.
on the weekly it looks like a backtest of the 20SMA WEEKLY failure. sure looks like a bear flag forming. however, it is quite possible it continues to form on the weekly into OPEX Expiry before failing.
personally i like your KO calls better than taking AAPL puts in this spot. if i was to take AAPL puts id consider them with more conviction in 8 trading days.
raised my stops and went to sleep and sold at 3.05 for a really small on the stop out, meaningless profit lol.
will watch to see how the 1059 area holds. if it breaks there, it could gap down.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Woo – thoughts on AAPL – LOL feel wierd posting so many times – hope you see this
February 8th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
sorry i went to go nap.
i’d like to see aapl below 194.51. even then it needs some work to break down. currently is still not bearish.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Thanks Woo
So what levels would you watch for a breakdown and what level would you say its going bullish at ?
February 8th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
Are you feeling ok ?
——— LGF ———– trading at low of day. this company is located quite close to me in VANCOUVER BC . the stronger CAD$ has to be hammering these guys. the chart
is saying so. i have the MAR5 PUTS.
it completed a 50% retrace from its March Lows throught to October. a test of the March low would be $3.75
CNBC says 99.57% institutional ownership.
———— V ———– just tagged $83.55 ……… see if sellers step back in here. otherwise im gonig to have to bail on the trade. want a close below this price.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
have trendline right here. ive added on to the position $2.55 for a couple more.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:39 pm
hopefully that $2.55 is the low of day
trendline holding.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
if you take any credence in OPEX PAIN #S this one to
provide max pain should rest at $80 imo. this would
put 12,000 contracts ITM . thare are almost that many
contracts in the 85 CALL alone
Hey Richard, how is it going. Remember us talking about SRS a month ago? I sure remember you telling us to buy buy buy… well I did and just sold it today for a nice profit
Thanks and I may go in after a market bounce tomorrow.
February 8th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
yes. sold my calls when it hit $8.50. however, it underperformed most my positions.
Bears moving in taking more and more control of market~
———- MAYBE IM STUPID ——– im still short term bearish since i just put more than $1,000 against VISA in PUTS for a short term trade. are we heading to 1025-35 ?? and then rally into OPEX?? im favouring this trading pattern after today’s lack lustre action.
we can head lower quickly, than rally into OPEX to take off the oversold condition before plummeting again. maybe im not getting the message correct but the action in the equities ive bet for and against tell me this story so far.
how us everyone feelnig after today. go lower first and then bounce? or continue a bounce now and drag it slowly out for 9 more days?
February 8th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
one more strong piece of evidence comes from the candle pattern resistance held in VISA. VISA reported numbers; as good as any. if that wont hold it up you have to admit bearish for the general market short term.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Richard – Visa could be looked as a bul flag on the 60 min – no ?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Anjali, i only use Daily and Weekly charts. i mostly trade on the open and close of the market. most my trades are limit orders based on these charts. morning fills are from hit limit orders made the night before. im a short term trader but not that short term
February 8th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Cool – was just trying to pick your brains
On the weekend you shared how you setup your charts …. do you mainly look for hits of the MA from top or bottom to see what patterns they form … and only the MA as tgts ?
bought puts into close.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
do you see that trendline in VISA cutting throught $8.55. really had a struggle in that spot. you said stay away
and i agreed. but i couldnt help myself to keep watching it. first tags the 20SMA. fails bad. rallies back up to the trendline and fails it into the close. hopefully its true to form and heads back to 80SMA
Um…so what just happened in the last 20mins into close?
Market sure is nervous,what do people think of this?? http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.e0b08e9e64fe15a987c1cf73dd8c5fe2.521&show_article=1
February 8th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Wow!!!
Perhaps zee can comment ?
Okay, so my envisioned “drop-and-crap” Monday didn’t turn out exactly the way I expected it to, but it didn’t matter to my stock/ETF picks it seemed.
May I have a “drop-and-crap” Tuesday please?
February 8th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Yup, I feel the same way. Currently loaded with BAC March 13 puts. Willing to wait for 2-3 weeks.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
looks and feels like a highly probable drop/crap tuesday for some stocks.
some of my picks finished on LOD : MTD LGF
some of my picks finished on HOD : CERN BPL
think the best game plan here on in. take some CALLS and some PUTS
and keep a decent balanced portfolio. we may just wiggle in a range
not sure if its the right time to go “ALL IN” one way
Fritz your cooking you were buying puts when most everyone else was looking for a move up too 1080 Monday
February 8th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
That’s because I had to believe in my forecast, and I got confirmation on the weekly charts.
The reason I didn’t go all in on Friday was because the major decline date at the beginning of each year can be up to two days off. I was saving my ammunition for any pop today.
I shorted the financials at market open, and they did turn out to be drop-and-crap.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
Nice Fritz
– can you share what all you are holding now and what you are looking to buy / where ?
February 8th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Shorts: AXP, JPM, GS, COF, IBM, JNJ, MRK, DOW
Puts: AXP FEB 37, JPM FEB 38, GS FEB 150, IBM FEB 120, V FEB 80, JNJ FEB 60, DD FEB 32
Calls: SKF FEB 26, DXD FEB 33, VIX FEB 27.5
Looking to buy VIX MAR 30 CALL tomorrow, any price below $2.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Any reason why you are not holding BAC puts? Wanted your analysis because I am holding them now.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:02 pm
Don’t laugh at me. I tried, and missed the entry by a penny.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
if you don’t mind could your share your cost for these shorts? Also are you short stocks or options?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Thanks for sharing
– your cost basis would be great …. would you still add on a bounce tomm ?
good for you,always looking for your posts along with Zee & Woo,you 3 rock .(Idan too)
——— PALM ———- trust this one to fall so much i hardly watch it all day . its soft after hours after a clean break of $10. lost 5% today alone.
Eliot wave update end of day:
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/02/elliott-wave-update-8-february.html
Yesterday when everybody including some very expert people were talking about market to close positive on Monday I posted yesterday here that big boys are still short and sure enough there are exactly as I said. So today again was a perfect opportunity to take short at the mornign bounce. As I told you guys big boys need time to cover thier short. They went short huge when market was @ 1150 and it is going to take some time for them to cover thier shorts then we can see a little rally. So keep this in mind and stick with big boys to make money.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Question is not “how much” or “what to short/buy”, it’s “when”.
I will be buying at the same moment as GS and JPM.
February 8th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
I am sure everyone here will have same question. How do you know what “big boys” doing? Or it’s just simply a guess?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
thank you!!!!!
February 8th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
I am asked several times that how do I know what big boys are doing. I tried to explain this before. I do not do my analysis based on TA. My analysis is based on psychology. psychology is telling me that once big boys go short it takes some time they cover and once they start covering it is not going to be in one or 2 days, it takes some time. Why? beacuse if they cover all thier short in one day then market will jump huge and them my grandmother who does not know how to read also would know that she shoul dgo long. So big boys do thier short covering slow and also they need to keep the price low so they can make more money on thier short. So while everybody is thinking that market is crashing I based on psychology say that big boys are covering thier short and it takes time for them so they will keep the price low for a while so they can complete thier hsort covering. Now does that mean market will rally to a new high. The answer is that we do not know. We need to wait and see what big boys will do and then we follow them. Stick with boys guys and make money.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
What if we are straight and prefer girls?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
Sam, are you trying to make us go nuts? i swear you posted BIG BOYS covering shorts on Friday. are you sure the big balls are stil short?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
I said on Friday they start covering but I did not say they completed thier covering.. If you look at my post on yetserday weekend I said they are still short while all expert including inthemoneystock who call himself a MASTER said today will close green.
Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 February [Update 4:45 PM]
[Update 4:45 PM: The Wilshire (and DOW and SPX…) shows the Head and Shoulders pattern. Today backtested the neckline perfectly. Its not a “classic” looking H and S pattern here yet the sneaky patterns are the ones to look out for. This one is sneaky.
What happened to the rally?
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/02/elliott-wave-update-8-february.html
Sam,
When sp hit 1150. vix was 17 that mean calls are much more than put. People were long the market. Pleaser advice how you identified big boys short the market by that time?
February 8th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
Sam,
When sp hit 1150. vix was 17 that mean calls are much more than put. People were long the market. Pleaser advice how you identified big boys short the market by that time? via short interest?
As I said in #41 today (watch out for a test of 1055 again today. last hour of trading is key again, if any weakness then 1055 !!)
Finally it came true, and I am short some SPY.
My target is not a number, it is first of all Thursday the 11 th of Feb.
When markets goes down to that date, I will cover my short and go long for a quick rebound.(1088 possible)
OPEX could be up again. We will see on Thursday, maybe Friday in the open.
..I am happy because TODAY was a bearish MONDAY…something is changing finally
…besides this…I am still following my logic….maybe I will be burned, who knows….but I still believe in a positive bias
Why?
TA – PPO hourly/daily are still bullish
Fibonacci – everything can happen. Today´s retracement (50% from Friday´s mini-rally) is very health
February 8th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
..also sentiment indicators..Zweig & McClellan are very bullish
For gold, weekly RSI10 dropped to21, It is close to a good time to long
February 8th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
asked Idan about this last week, he seemed to think about 100 on gld (200sma)–don’t know if this has changed, going to wait.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
…for me it is still risky in any direction….mainly because I have opposite forecasts:
- TA – PPO daily/hourly are bullish
- Fibonacci bearish structure only reached 138.2%. Normally W3 reach 161.8%. It has some room to drop further
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2669f0dc-8412-45e5-9c26-49ccd6d59551
February 8th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
I have shorted GLD today at 104,70…..my target is below 100.
Long term (2-3 month) Gold, will go to 820-840.
Corrections can go up to 1093-1096 again.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
What the USD, that is still key for Gold as is the stockmarket. They do now correlate all together.
Re: Post #32
Stocks listed under “short” were sold short on different days including Friday.
Put options bought:
AXP FEB 37 @ $0.7
JPM FEB 38 @ $1
GS FEB 150 @ $2.5
IBM FEB 120 @ $1
V FEB 80 @ $1 (this one could crash and burn)
JNJ FEB 60 @ $0.4 (this is to prepare in case there is a vote on Health Care before President’s Day, so it could crash and burn as well)
DD FEB 32 @ $0.7 (I’m not looking for 5x profit on this guy. I want to let it expire ITM and see if I can get short shares from my broker in return.)
Call options:
SKF FEB 26 @ $0.9
DXD FEB 33 @ $0.6
VIX FEB 27.5 @ $1.25 (jumped in too early on Friday, but won’t worry about it)
February 8th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
I will not jump in on any pop tomorrow except CAT Feb puts and VIX March calls.
I will not try to get cute playing any bounce. I said over the weekend that I will play against all those who try to play the bounce.
February 8th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
Thanks for sharing Fritz ….
I am holding AAPL and JNPR puts at this point … AAPL fell out of the bull flag channel showing great weakness …
February 8th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
——— V ———- in and out once. hoping for another the same. its
getting quite volatile this one.
thanks for posting your trades.
Excellent day! Had a strong feeling it would go this way, as I mentioned in the wee hours in the morning as well as early afternoon on this board. Of course I was probably the king of incorrect predictions late last year on this board so I guess it comes out even in the wash. Just glad the tide as turned for me, as I felt very strongly about this day ending about 1% down, while the majority of folks all over the internet expected up. In any case, I hope you guys made money, or if not, didn’t lose too much.
What are your thoughts about tomorrow’s action, as I’m not at all sure what we’ll see.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58089497819&a=184607634
long term 20 year chart. the red line broke again today into EOD which is why i decided to go with march puts into closing. i think this is pretty significant, but i’m not sure how many will agree with me.
we’ll see how tomorrow’s trading day goes, the most ideal situation for the bears would be to open and break down hard and pull another 2+% day. however, if this is the 5 wave down, it’s going to take some time to complete because the 1 and 3 were so swift.
if wave 5 down is indeed starting, it may be a better idea to go into mid term trading mode, where you grab a short position or a next month put and hold it for a bit.
won’t know until we get a confirmation move south tomorrow.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
Prior to January opex I mentioned Feb puts make money, even with only two weeks left.
The reason I knew that was because not only were we at 61.8% retracement in terms of time, but also the market needs to crash post President’s Day to send a non-confidence message to Obama.
My target has always been SPX 956 or lower for this drop. Feb puts are for me to raise cash to grab more March one week after Feb opex, and to raise more cash to grab April calls on stocks that will pop during the next major counter-trend rally. Towards the end of the major counter-trend rally, I will buy VLT SPY puts when the VIX is still in the upper 20s or lower 30s.
VIX will reach 100 by the end of September if the fractal plays out.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
Wow – based on this – what would be the right point to get out of the 401 K – or is it too late to ask
February 8th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
I was wondering the same thing about 401k.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Problems in euro-land are giant. Spain has as many foreclosed homes
as the entire usa. East block is ready to implode.
This is the same secondary wave as in 1930’s as the export markets in
europe wither and die.
FWIW most lost huge in the 1929/30 crash on the SECOND DECLINE !!!!
Charts don’t lie. Someone pls do a 29/30 overlay to current decline so
the magnitude can be seen.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Fritz,
Why do you think VIX will go to 100? When it rose to 80 their was sheer panic in the air, an absolute possible collapse of the financial system. I do agree with you that we will see the re-test of March lows around that time frame, but just think that it will be very orderly and VIX will rise gradually but not to the level of the fear that we say during the same time frame in 2009. Thoughts? Thanks.
Take care,
-Mo.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
If the S&P breaks the March lows with speed, even if only for a few days, panic will set in.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:51 pm
Thanks. I hear ya loud and clear now how much panic now would arise from such an occasion the second time around…
February 8th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
very plausible fritz
keep us updated.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
No one, absolutely no one, saw the vix at 80 as possible until that was
upon us.
Its the nature of panic for that to happen.
As for europe and the PPIIIGS (add an extra I for Iran) They are not complacent
pusses and will riot in the streets. Remember, in france the politicos fear
the public as do the other ECU members.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Its just my call, but I don’t see this downtrend to keep continuing until September. Everyone is expecting a P3, but I think the bull market already started last year. If anything we will have a rally into summer, another dip from July/August to october, and then a rally to higher highs by the end of the year.
Just my call though.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:57 pm
I don’t expect us going to DOW 1000. I expect DOW 6000.
Frame a photo of DOW 10729.89, and admire it for the rest of 2010.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:24 am
I agree with you 100% Fritz. I just wish I knew exactly how quickly we’ll see the drop to 6k, and how large the upward corrections will be.
February 8th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Fritz,
I read your comments on the Olympic thing. When 9/11 happened I knew right off the bat it was done with the knowledge of the government. Things like that don’t just happen on their own.
Thanks for you input.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:59 pm
I hope my predicted market crash will only be related to Obama’s incompetence and not another false flag event.
Excellent insight Woo & Fritz, what you say sounds very accurate thanks for posting!
Gonna get stupid and take some shares of CTIC–total gamble, as I am not close to Las Vegas!!!
February 8th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
CTIC calls were being touted on ‘fast money’ due to huge buying of
$2. March options . . . yes they have options on peenies, lol.
Turnt out to be a time bomb, CTIC is running out of cash and options so be
bearish !!!
This is just a natural cyclical correction.
The real bear market happened and was 18 months in length. Currency adjusted the ^DJIA hit 4500 in terms of Canadian Dollars. (yes cheap analogy)
The counter-trend of the bear (Bull) was 9 months in length.
Cycle theory predicts this bear run to last 3-6 months from it’s start. No long positions shall be taken until a 10% correction (i.e 1000).
Zeeshan Maqsood on October 7, 2009 at 8:14pm :http://social.stocktock.com/photo/bull-until-jan-2010-or-march?context=user
IMO, the bull is here to stay probably until late 2009/march 2010.
Then we’ll get a nice correction of 10-15% that everyone is looking for.. and we’ll go from there
February 8th, 2010 at 7:36 pm
Assuming your applying those accurate comments of 4 months ago to today’s action as well, that’s good insight Zee, and I want to also give you credit for very accurate analysis on these boards.
I remember when the S&P was at about 1025 and I was calling for a top, and you said no, the top would be 1100 or slightly higher, and you were absolutely right.
However, I disagree with your analysis of just a 10-15% correction, although once again you might very well be correct. I feel we’ll see a 10-15% correction, followed by a rally of maybe 5-8%, and then a further correction of 15-20%. Just my thoughts.
In any case, the 10% correction is pretty close now, maybe another 1.5-2% away, and I’m wishing my crystal ball would tell me if we are going to reverse ground and rally at 10% or closer to 15%. If its 10% I need to plan to be around all day watching the action this week, so I can sell before the rally moves too far.
So if pressed, would you say we’ll see that rally closer to the 10% correction area or the 15% area? Your insight would be much appreciated!!
February 8th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
Congratulations for holding on. I was afraid you capitulated since you haven’t posted much recently.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:10 am
Hey Jeff Graubart,
Thanks buddy. Yeah, I was just starting to feel like a broken record and a jackass admitting I was 100% short week after week and being wrong. So I just took a break from this board to enjoy the misery alone
I’m feeling pretty optimistic now, and hoping/believing in a bunch more downside to come for this market.
Hope all is going well with you too.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
How is that ’sure-fire’ C trading system working out?
February 8th, 2010 at 9:09 pm
Goingtoretire: Are you still short from the top? Good job if you held through!
All my system tells me is that until we break 1085, the bear trend is still IN effect.
If your scared of a rally, hedge your shorts with strong longs that won’t move down too much if the market tanks (VZ, T, XOM).
Lochne:
I haven’t backtested the model in 3-4 months. It still seems to work.
However you can optimize the results by buying C only when it hits its lower BB or when it’s -2% for the day. Also the model does not take into account you not getting filled at the limit price.
February 8th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
10% or 15%?
I don’t know sorry. Fritz/woo could prob. give an idea.
This trend is very hard to trade since it is new to me and probably most of us (9months since march09!!). I’ve said this numerous times, but expect 3-4 days of flat/+0.3% market action and then dips of 1%. This way few people get a good entry point to short and dip buyers get screwed. MAX PAIN to traders.
Kudos to those who are making $ off of it.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
zee,
I’ve traded this trend before you entered the market, it’s not hard to trade.
All you need is identify a few highest probability topping dates within a nine month window and short the heck out of the market a few days before that and cover at the seasonal low turn dates.
I enjoy this trend, because I can see myself making lots of profit very quickly.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
Fritz – can u share how you come up with these dates ?
Thanks
February 9th, 2010 at 12:16 am
Hey Zee,
Thanks for the response buddy, and yes, I’ve been 100% short for the past 4 months straight. I scaled into positions throughout October, November, December, and January, and hold all bear etf’s, some single, double, and triple leveraged. I’m up approximately 18% at the moment, and feeling pretty positive, but would really like to see another 10% profit or more before I start taking some off the table. I know that may sound greedy, but to be down for so long really sucked, and I want to make up for that by making some really good profit. Just a bit nervous that this correction may reverse before I see another 10% profit.
In any case, thanks for the tip on the 1085 level on the S&P, and I’ll look to take some profit off the table if we see that level soon.
Thanks again for all the help my friend!
Fritz, where do you see the VIX headed over the next two weeks?
February 8th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
VIX 100??????????????????????????????????????????????????
jk
February 8th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
Not 100, but enough to screw you over.
Just like SAM I am going to say “stay with the market and you will make money:
The bulls got whacked today expecting a green day..but the vol was lot lower today compared to other down days.