Today: Post all your trades as you make them! I’m interested to see what trades you guys are making these days!
Here’s the 60 minute SPY with the red descending channel and major resistance areas! If we break back below 1054 we might see some more downside, to break 1045.
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The roller coaster ride begins.
No ones talking about it anymore but if you see the 1937-1938 chart and Big/Big drop coming our way. And so far we’ve been matching the pattern very closely.
And one more thing, there were two drops in Jan and March during 1938. I think there is going to be just one big one this time.
Target: 950 atleast, probably 870 by end of this month.
Excellent points Shiva, I agree and expect we’ll see a 4% or 5% plunge in one day very soon.
Additionally I think that since so many people believe we’ll have an up day tomorrow, that we’re going to see a big down day. The markets like to prove the majority wrong as frequently as possibly. So I’m staying positioned 100% short and may even buy some more short positions on the rips/rallies.
——— FUTURES POPPED ——— trade under the 2hr MA until a pop at 2AM MONDAY morning as markets around the world continue lower. SUPRISE! moved from 1057.50 to 1066.50 in 1.5hrs. im glad to have hedged with FAZ puts as this thing gets manipulated overnight. have no idea which way we head in next few days. fairly confident we hit 1087 in the next 10 trading days.
ORDERS PLACED:
SELL — MTD PUTS — never filled on Friday. reviewed chart. cancelled order. keeping.
SELL — NP PUTS
SELL — BZH PUTS
BUY — WY PUTS —- shallow bid MAR39 hoping for a breif pop to fill
BUY — LGF PUTS — strong bid MAR5 ahead of earnings
BUY — CERN PUTS — strong bid FEB75 ahead of earnings
BUY — GE CALLS — good bid FEB16
BUY — TAP CALLS — strong bid FEB40
SELL — HND.TO — strong limit …. want to rid of this for certain.
BUY — ZBRA PUTS — ahead of earning FEB25
SHORT TERM POSITIONS FROM LAST WEEK ( report today and ah Friday )
PUTS: OMC WCN BPL — CALLS: PFG
—- 1100 is the 80SMA on the daily —-
—- 1087 is the 20SMA on the weekly -
—- 1025 is the 40SMA on the weekly -
— WY — really caught my eye with the WEEKLY CHART. im using the 20 / 40 / 80 SMA on the weekly and you can clearly see the attempted cross of the 40/80. this failed cross can be very bearish and feel the risk reward is worth a short here. the balance sheet is weak and the company continues to bleed which backs up the chart action nicely. the two averages at $36.90 — a good short term target.
interesting hedging..
—- WY —- again . i plan my trades and make my orders the night before. WHAT A PERFECT OPEN for WY trade.
WY opens at $40, fills my puts, and quickly retreats below the averages.
Reponse to “post all of your trades”
I am all in cash as of now, closed out all my positions friday mid day because for some reason monday’s always seem to be up days.
I traded (all Feb. options) SPY 108 puts and SPY 106 puts and BAC 14 putsthis Thursday and Friday. Iv held these positions since for a week and added to them wednesday of last week. Friday ended up being a fantastic day, best day for me as a trader! I sold all my SPY puts for nice gains, I was underwater in those picks coming into thursday. I sold my BAC puts for a nice gain, but it was a really small position.
Looking towards monday as being a possible up day and maybe re enter (w/ a small position) long SPY 105-106 february Puts if S&P fails to break out of key resistance at 1080-1086. If they do not break resistance, then il remail all cash for now until it goes towards 1100 and see whats the situation there.
Again, great site, I appreciate all the info posted here. Thanks!
I’m looking to buy some
buy some SPY puts? looks like its gonna open lower. figures, the one monday i decide to be all cash in, is gonna be a down monday.
Thanks for the advice Sonny. I think you might still turn out to be right.
QID if it goes higher than $21.25 or so.
Sorry, meant to say if it goes higher than $21.50.
Good Morning crew. InTheMoney has an analysis on recent mm that’s worth a read. They look at possible indications of last Fri’s late day rally. Here it is:
By Nicholas Santiago on February 7th, 2010 2:57pm Eastern Time
The major indexes such as the SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY), Diamonds Trust (NYSE:DIA), Powershares QQQQ Trust (Nasdaq:QQQQ), and the IShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) have all had a high volume reversal on Friday February 5th 2010. This reversal took place in the final hour of the trading session and must be respected when looking out into next week.
There is something else that is also stands out about last Friday. It was the fourth negative week for the major indexes. The last time the stock market was down four weeks in a row was when the market made a short term top on June 11th and bottomed around July 8th before staging another rally. From this June 2009 high the point decline on the S&P 500 pullback to the low in July 2009 was around 87 points. This time the S&P 500 looks to have made a top in January 2010, and if a short term low was made on February 5th, 2010 which is 4 weeks in time the decline from high to close is about 84 points. While this decline it is not exact, the markets remain very symmetrical and often do.
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) is another index that displays symmetry from the recent past. In February 2009 the GLD pulled back 9 weeks into mid April 2009. The decline for this ETF was about 14 points. Before the end of November 2009 the GLD made a recent top at just under 120.00 a share. Since that high, the GLD has pulled back 10 weeks now for a decline of 14.86 points as of the close on February 5th, 2010. While the point decline is not perfect it is important to notice the symmetry in time and price.
There is no evidence these lows in the markets are holding up for the long term, however, they often do so at least in the short term. In many ancient texts there is saying, “as above so below.” Perhaps this is some evidence to the wisdom of the past. In any case watch those big reversal days.
I am thinking to start adding shorts at higher open today
I’m looking for today to behave like Daneric’s a-b-c pattern today in his post:
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/02/weekend-charts.html
If so, day end up in the 1080+ range and I plan on dumping my SSO and re-loading FAZ.
Long Faz @ open 2% trailing stop
—— ORDERS FILLED —–
WY PUTS
TAP CALLS
HND.TO sell
GE CALLS
BZH PUTS sell
anyone take the PUTS in BPL pre-earnings? read the report.
some of these earnings report are a knotted mess. very mixed
signals and you can see that in the stock price today. very muted
response to an increased dividend.
——- MTD ——— why i cancelled my sell order on these front month puts. take a look at the weekly chart using the 20 / 40 / 80 sma. the price trades a red doji last week below the 20SMA on the weekly. the MACD and FULL STO on the daily are not oversold. im thinking this non-dividend paying stock could have a few LARGE SELLERS in it. a break of 50 on the weekly RSI could lead to a big move. the 40SMA on the weekly is the target $90. this is below my initial target and gives strong risk / reward to hold.
NOW im more balanced in CALLS and PUTS. BALANCED
trade may be the way to go the next 10 days.
——— BPL ——— holding up but not rallying so far. im unloading these puts today if it cleanly holds above the 20SMA on the weekly. that price is $52.60.
——- HOD.TO ——- tagged the 40SMA on the weekly at $11.20. the daily chart shows the 20 / 40 sma flat. if this holds above $10.50 i may add to my position. bought into this position on the pull back to the 80SMA.
pull up the HOD.TO with 20 / 40 / 80SMA and you can see that 20SMA violently crossing through the two flat 40 and 80 averages.
I went long UCO @ $9.96 in anticipation of the dollar pulling back a bit !!!!
http://www.stocktiming.com__Their last trade was a dog but, I thought you guys might want to hear some of today’s commentary.__Typically, we would see an upside bounce after supports on Friday… so the intra-day movement should be UP today. At the same time, out-flowing and negative liquidity levels put the market at a high risk level… We are at a major pivot point and if for some unknown reason, Institutional Investors were to go into “panic selling” today, the results could easily be a market crash. I don’t see a reason for that to happen, but none-the-less, I at least want you to know that we are at such an important pivot point.
Interesting read Al. thnx.
— OMC ———————————–> selling my position ahead of earnings
keeps holding $35.12 WEEKLY 40SMA.
———- PALM ————- off 4%. i have MAY 11 PUTS …. im not letting go of them.
today is a good day to play for few cents… I bank .10 .20. 30 whatever comes in a way… market direction is not clear yet…
———- BPL ——— must stay below $54.50 imo. trading above this for two consecutive closes will make me believe this trade is doomed.
——— SRS ——— i unloaded all my shares and calls in this POS @ $8.50. im really tired of all its bullish appeal and fake outs lower. the chart is a mess. makes little sense to trade this for me. so many other better options imo. would not be suprised to see it in the high 7s again in the next 10days. maybe i should have took SRS puts instead of FAZ.
I went long xom @ 63.65 hit a support.
Rally week….here’s why
http://www.milliondollartarget.com/flash/2010/February52010_free/February52010_free.htm
so far so good….
Roo – is this a paid site ?
And your e-mail to his list and receive a free video ever 1-2 weeks. His pay service is a bit expensive.
———- BA ———- MAY52.50 PUTS ………. these look good. the daily chart says to me “the damage is done” looks very vulnerable on the daily chart sitting on the 40SMA. the sell side volume is decent and the support side buy is not there yet. day is not done, but the way everything looks on this chart… higher prices look unlikely.
For scalp traders only:
Friday´s pop up and current behaviour, fits in a perfect Fibonacci formation.
I expect SPY to reach 61.8% retracement (108.20 which matchs with 161.8% extension using this minor formation)
Beyond this..wait until 76.40% (SPY already reversed in the past at this levels). By the way it is the beginning of an open gap… probably all bearish formation will be invalidated and I will be happy to hold my calls for a while
76.40% retracement is 109.00 for SPY
im using a much simpler method
PULL CHART OF $SPX
place the 20 / 40 / 80 SMA on your chart.
target 20SMA @ 1089 …. but this SMA is rolling over.
watch the volume on the retrace confirming bearish trend.
lower boundary 40SMA @ 1028
——– PFG ——– nice bounce off the double bottom. im liking these CALLS so far. took the FEB23 CALL on FRIDAY when it hit $22. this one reports AH today.
i use http://www.earningswhispers.com for my calendar . very reilable.
dont rely on the “whisper” number but when you like a chart and
you see a “whisper number” above the estimate then its nice.
this one has consensus $0.65 and whisper $0.69
NDN had a whisper above consensus. take a look at its chart. i took profits too fast.
———- M ————- unloaded my PUTS. this one really looks like its turning the corner . and im not going to wait and see. it looks like a potential BLAST OFF. thought everyone was going to move into high quality holdings LOL… CNBS is great entertainment.
———- PBI ————- struggling to make a move on that neutral earnings report. go back to late OCT when it hit $26 for you high. $21 is the low late JAN. this is a move of $5. the 80SMA on the daily is $23.22 . this is close to the 50% retrace. if it fails to rally to that average less than 10% away in the next 10 days im getting PUTS again.
———- BZH ———— note i bailed on my PUTS first thing this morning. this was after a weekend of staring at this WEEKLY CHART
no balls to take calls but wise to take great profits in this trade selling in two parts at the $4 level. it is up 10% from the LOD.
pull up the WEEKLY on BZH using the 20/40/80 sma. you can see the 40/80 cross and the flag pulling back to test the 40sma. this thing is on the fence.
that 200EMA may act as resistance around $4.5.
——— LGF ———- this debt ridden company looks very sickly on the chart. my bid for puts ahead of earnings was never filled. im going to MOVE BID UP.
BID $0.30 MAR5 PUT . im not paying $0.35 ASK. fair value in my bid of $0.25 never filled. OTM puts at more than 5% of the stock price sitting 2% above the strike seems a bit pricey.
got my OTM …. CERN PUTS @ $2.00. the stock hit 77. this is 2% above the strike of $75 front month. and less than 3% of the strike. im not the best at calculating the fair value of an option. however i need to see at least the potential for a doubling in value based on chart targets.
anyone here an expert at calculating FAIR VALUE of options?
no matter how i look at the charts on the spx, it looks like consolidation. below we’ve got 200ma support as well as the 38% retrace. above we’ve got the rest of the retraces, and we’re sitting right in the middle of a channel.
this is probably going to be a slow day. i’m leaning more towards the long side though because 50ma support is below here also, it’s currently sitting at 1062ish on the 5 min chart, but will keep going up as the day progresses and eventually meet the 1067 area where the 200ma/5min and the 38% retrace are sitting.
also a longer term fib at the high 1069 area, so if we get above that it will remain support, if we get below it, it will just keep coiling/wedging between that area and the 1067 support.
————- CERN —————- FEB75 PUTS — filled @ $2.00. patience pays off.
nice bear flag on the daily. im looking for a single digit FULL STO . this one never back tested the the break of the 20SMA on the weekly. that is one small concern going into earnings. this is one of my riskier grabs.
erx is currently below a long term trend line and also below the 60 min 200ma. this is pretty significant to the downside.
34.28 is a long term fib and 34.31 is the 200ma. that’s as beautiful a resistance as you’re going to get. if entering erx, place stops above that level and ride it down as far as you can.
31.66 will be first support, then 30 dollar level, a break below that will probably result in 27.60 or so very quickly.
Do you still follow WFC? Looking at 26.6 area for a bounce. Your thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFC&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p34611356367&a=162854003
currently moving sideways and in between not only the 50ma and 200ma long term, but also a few fib retracements. that means it’s neither bullish nor bearish, this is a tough stock to trade at the moment until it chooses a side. the long term head and shoulders leans towards a possible drop, but i would wait until confirmation with a break in the low $26 area to short/put for a quick gap down to the $25 area. until then, options will just decay, and there is more money to be made in other stocks that lean more towards a particular direction.
did some short in GLD at 104,70 1/3 position, will add more at 106,75 stop at 110,20
fas is currently between a long term fib and the 200ma. i would say it’s a non play at the moment. looks like people don’t know what to make of the financials at the moment. i would wait for a break below on fas of 63.33 to go short, or a break above 66.33 to go long.
took calls in PFG yesterday. am i nuts woo? look at the chart and
let me know what you think. 2.22% yield at this price.
yikes. 23.22 is a long term 38% retrace from october 2008 until now. so we hit the minimum retrace and then fell south. bearish. on top of that below the 50ma, also below 200ma which is at 23.49. RSI is neither significantly overbought or oversold. macd bear crossed a while ago, and it doesn’t look like it will be going the other way anytime soon.
i would wait for those levels i mentioned to be recaptured before going long on this. if you’ve made profit on it, i would take it and run unless you’ve got some really good short term charts in your favor. long term says don’t touch this with calls.
this is my smallest position. ill keep it that way. dont like it touching $22.50 support again. im using the weekly chart as direction and the daily chart for entry point. the volume buy to $22.50 is what caught my eye but i guess that was soooooooooooooo long ago in MAY.
this is looking more and more like a 50-50 roll of the dice and as the day rolls on id favour the bears. however, the close can mean alot.
think ill take equal $22 PUT and $23 CALL. it really feels like it will make a move. maybe im getting sucked in by Mr. Market and it just sits here for options decay
haha. i think it will move soon too. good luck richard =)
amzn is still bullish until it breaks the 117 level. i would not short it until that area breaks.
thoughts on AAPL?
He’s still strong as shit I got puts and never took my profit thursday or friday and waited for a move lower. That squeeze on friday killed me I covered a bunch today for break even… If this market breaks again he goes with it but he’s unusually strong
Woo,
Regarding your post #31, do you see the timeframe for this move to be short enough in duration that a long position in ERY would be a good move, or would you just short ERX due to the potential decay?
ohhhhh good question haha. short position would save on decay. with the market the way it is, it’s really hard to say how quickly these stocks are going to move. it really depends on how comfortable you feel holding these positions, and what type of trader you are. generally it’s better to short these because of the bits and pieces of decay you mentioned (although it’s not as bad as options). but i always hate how shorts look in my portfolio, and for some reason, it gets my brain all screwy. at this point, i would say that i don’t think we’ll be seeing as much decay as we did before, the market pretty much has to make a decision very soon, and this wave 4/wave 1 will most likely be fast after this consolidation day finishes.
Thanks Woo. Please refresh my memory….wave 4/wave 1 will be to the upside?
yes. we’re currently already in it, in my opinion. wave 4 minimum requirements have already been met because we’ve hit the 38% retrace of wave 3. now we’ll have to wait and see if this is a wave 4 or a wave 1 up.
——— MY MAIN PLAY ——- im 50% CASH
I am with you. 75% CASH… have traded over 20 times with not much just $478 for day but i like to hold on to it… I am hoping for a rally higher. let see…
im up over $0,000 for the day
and its looking very good for my TAP $40 CALLS too.
V – be careful shorting this stock. long term charts lean towards a possible move to the 95 area. don’t short until 80.71 breaks. and as soon a 84.56 50ma breaks one more time to the north, go long.
took my scalp. verified that i took profits in the right spot. now trying
to keep it off my radar this week. completely agree. looks like taking
profits on that long tail on the daily was the right thing. it found alot
of support there.
yeah. good stuff richard. just wanted to put the warning out there for ya.=P
—— OMC ——– posting again that i got out of my PUTS this morning. im favouring WCN ahead of earnings. WCN is more speculative and the decline is less advanced. OMC looks more likely to bounce from this spot and may enjoy DIVIDEND pump.
——– ZBRA ——– FEB25 PUT — moved bid to $0.20 and FILLED.
now trading below a declining 20SMA on the WEEKLY. roll over at $28 resistance ahead of EARNINGS TUESDAY. back tested the 80SMA on the daily failed. managed to barely come off of oversold reading on the FULL STO.
if this heads higher after earnings ill be watching the retrace levels for a larger position out a few months. really like this bearish chart set up if it fails $27.50 following earnings. pays no dividend. im not biased for upside based on the fact i love my ZEBRA inkless label printer
. biased short side based on chart.
watch out for a test of 1055 again today. last hour of trading is key again, if any weakness then 1055 !!
Friday’s turnaround on the S&P 500 drew an intraday V bottom. With this morning’s follow through, that V has progressed into a now confirmed inverse Head & Shoulders. That pattern targets a move up to 1088. The target should be met over the next several hours of trading providing there is no drop beneath this morning’s low of 1059.24
Appreciate post Al, but seems too easy–been following formations for awhile, they never tend to work out. Having said, am watching, cash in hand at this point.
i’m not a big H&S fan either. when it’s there, i’ll take it into account, but i’ll never use it as a primary indicator. that being said, sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t hehe. they’re good gap indicators.
I just like putting my 2 cents in, then we can see who gets it right.
i think it’s a good observation.
It better be, I stole it. He he he
Al, appreciate–just have gotten burned too many times looking at various formations. Am now trading longer levels.
hahahahaha. nice.
i agree with everything you said, just don’t like H&S too much in general haha. sorry, didn’t want to make it seem like i didn’t agree with your analysis, because i’m thinking along the same lines or leaning bullish at the moment as long as there is no strong break below the 1059 area. i see some other shorter term resistance above before the 1088, but that’s just getting nitpicky.
keep up the good work =)
*or = of
i know a lot of people are looking for a drop and for weakness, but let me show you this long term chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58089497819&a=184607634
we broke below that red trend line recently to hit upon another trend line, but then went back above. this is not considered a strong break of the trend line, trend lines crack for fibs and other trend lines all the time and it doesn’t take away from the strength of that original trend line. this 10 year chart is BULLISH.
if that red line breaks, look for a strong fall.
oops, i meant 20 year chart.
idan or anyone please confirm..
last week idan talked about GS in a wedge…the way i drew it…it broke out slightly only to come back in to the wedge and broke south…it retested..and is sitting right at the point….does it move south?? and for how long before support.
thanks
thinking of getting some puts
if 1072 breaks, i’m going to go long.
the chart looks like target and fib of 1229 is reachable, but before I would like to see 960 around for going long on both feet.
At the moment I am not short in the stock market. But if last hour went down I will step into some puts.
There is also a possibility of a rebound until 11th of Feb !
lets wait and see, sometimes it is better not to trade all nimbles and just stay aside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58089497819&a=184607634
should be response to #43
Just bought 1,000 shares of QID @ $21.15
I believe the S&P closes today at 1060 or below and the DJIA 9950 or lower.
——– BPL ——- cleanly above $54.50 . the market likes thier fancy accounting and share the wealth on falling revenues theme. wasn’t sure if the market would like this. looks like this is going to be a ZERO trade. probably not going to wait for 2nd day confirmation.
just going to be patient as 3 more hours of trading. look at
the daily chart volume yesterday and today.
—– HSU.TO —- tells a clean story about SPX price action
bounced off gap support $9.25
rallied nada
trying to rally above the gap fill area now.
looking more and more like bear flag on the daily. very weak.