Comments on: Wave Tock ~ Friday 2/5/10

By: Leland

Leland — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 21:31:50 +0000

thx craig

By: Craig

Craig — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 21:29:58 +0000

I’ve been searching for a valid count that supports this but none work well. And with so much overhead resistance, I think its unlikely Minute 1 ended Friday.

By: Leland

Leland — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 19:26:09 +0000

The common EW count is that we are in Minute Wave 3.

Any chance that friday’s low marked the only end of Minute 1? If so, Minute 2 could take us all the way back to ~1110 (62% retrace from 1150 to 1046).

By: Craig

Craig — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 23:09:17 +0000

In Primary wave 1, benefit of the doubt went to the Bears almost every time. I remember because I was trying to play bounces and got killed. It’s a tempting but dangerous game.

By: Anjali

Anjali — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 22:21:26 +0000

The only thing that concerns me is that everyone is expecting Monday to be bullish – like they have been the last 13 times out of 15 times or something like that …. does the mkt surprise and not be bullish this time round ?????

By: Anjali

Anjali — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 22:20:02 +0000

Woo – any thoughts on the AAPL chart – do you see this bouncing or going down and what would you be watching for – thanks

By: Mind the gap

Mind the gap — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 21:58:35 +0000

If your rational is only based on inflation adjusted then you’re just looking at it one sided. Technically gold should be over $2000 once it’s adjusted for inflation too, but I bet you’re not buying gold hand over fist. Inflation adjustment value is just one side of the analysis. Just like the markets can stay oversold/overbought for a long time the same can happen with any inflation adjusted models.

So you think the government can just keep printing money at this rate and still balance inflation and deflation? What’s your target on the SPX by next year 3000?

By: zee

zee — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 17:50:38 +0000

The implied volatility is not the same as it was back when the S&P was at 1145. You have to watch out, a 2% up-swing in the SPY, and a 15% drop in the VIX, can literally destroy your put value; while a 2% drop in the SPY may not even make you ITM as the premiums you pay to buy a put are big.

By: Lochne

Lochne — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 14:19:38 +0000

You ‘mercans sure does talk funny, LOL. All them fat cells round
your mouth or trying to talk with a mouthful of mcdonalds.

By: Freewaver

Freewaver — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 12:36:23 +0000

Most Wavers see exact the same count, that means it’s now clearly impulsive.

Buy Puts and get some money back, which we lost on the Up Correction!