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05
Feb
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5:32pm
The market did it’s thing and now we have to change our lines based on the action. Instead of using prior closes for candles to draw my trendline, I now have to use the lows which shifts the trendline slightly down. Here’s the 240 min SPX;
11:59am
Market is hitting up against that trend-line again! if we break it, watch out for another 2% fall.
10:45am
GE has been a stock that has managed to hold up relatively speaking in this type of bloody market. Today we hit long term support, if we break this support now at 15.65, we could see GE retrace adown to the low 15.10s and possibly low 14s fast after that:
10:27am
Well here’s the bounce that we looked for, right on the dot. AAPL is getting a nice bounce, it did not break it’s H&S formation yet, it might need a few days to form a more substantial right shoulder, but i do believe that the market once it breaks down, will shove AAPL below 190. Also XLF60 minute below shows that the H&S there has broken down, we might want to retrace the neckline first before some more breakdowns at 14.00-14.03:
10:07am
Here we go, we are down -0.7% as mentioned in my video, we should be getting a bounce around these areas 1054-1055. A break of my line is VERY VERY bearish, but i do expect a bounce.
9:39am
And there’s the puke trade i was talking about… make sure 1055 is really the level of support here.
9:33am
UPS despite gapping up with the SPY in the last few minutes, is showing strong bearish divergences compared to the broad markets. Any break below yesterday’s low would bring another shoot down to this stock. AAPL, go short under $190 because on the H&S showed in my video.
8:44am
Here’s my 240 min USO chart. As you can see, a break of the 35.40 level would make me bearish on the USO up until the high 30s (red descending support line). It looks like a head and shoulders formation held by that 35.40 level.
8:35am
Jobs data is a little mixed, 20K lost jobs in jan, 0.7% revision down of all jobs lost since depression began but unemployment rate dropping to 9.7%. I say, play it my way, hope for the puke trade and go long at my 1054-1055 levels.
7:07am
Jobs report coming out at 8:30 am, this is going to be a game changer, but here is a 240 minute SPY.. with strong support on my blue line (ascending) at 1055-1056. Like i mentioned yesterday, the puke trade is in play, people are selling down, we hit that line on the ES futures, but we might want to hit it again in cash trading. If this line breaks, 1032 is the next support (23.6% retracement of the whole rally since march):
4:00am
It’s as if the futures just saw my video and decided to dip from +20 to -60.
In my video I talk about a bounce on the blue trendline shown (around 1055-1056) but that might only be a momentary bounce of a few hours rather than days. We could fall down to a 23.6% retacement of the WHOLE move up at 1032 very fast. Will have a chart for your when trading begins!
Today we look at the market sell off that we were able to predict very accurately. For the past 2 weeks we have hit the nail on the head in every move, down and up. The SPY target for the rally was 110.40, and even though we peaked a little above that, the 60 minutes never closed above 110.40.
Jobs numbers will be coming out tomorrow, but we might get a little bit of that puke trade where we sell off a few more points in the morning and then bounce back. A break of the blue trendline would mean heavier sell offs.
We look at the GLD triangle, SPY, AAPL, UPS and BPI.
————– PALM ———– my $11 puts are out to MAY LOL. guess i figure its going to take its sweet time to $5 . so far so good. testing $10 now. ALL THREE MOVING AVERAGES I USE NOW POINT LOWER. wave structure is picture perfect.
FIRST LEG WAS $3 $13.50 to $10.50
NEXT LEG STARTS $11.25 ………. $9.25 ?? then bounce into OPEX target of $10 ??
ANYONE IN THIS TRADE WITH ME ?? ive been it for a bit.
1054.9 fib break means a probable move to trend line below, below the 1050s.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
break hasn’t been confirmed on the longer term chart.
—————- BXP ————— approaching the $62 target.
how many people took this trade posted by another board member?
gs just turned red
———— BZH ————— back to test $4 again. this is much different action than the two previous testS of $4 months before. then, it bounced with more conviction. this time its heading right down to it again. this is ahead of earnings. REPORTS AFTER HOURS
February 5th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
WHERE DOES EVERYONE GET THIER EARNINGS CALENDAR
AND ESTIMATES FROM? i use http://www.earningswhispers.com
SEE NOW …………they reported this morning already.
they reported a profit on some fancy accounting.
here’s the trend line below that i was talking about for spx. light blue.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75220322370&a=181956106
February 5th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
the 1054 area may hold though.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
———– V ———— cracked the 80 SMA
February 5th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
yeah…things are breaking down a bit on a number of stocks. i will probably sell my puts when my trend line hits and consider a call position there.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
while i maintain a target of $78 … seems a bit far for this one to get there today and i dont want to hold front month over the weekend. when i took this trade yesterday the intention was overnight.
IF IT TOUCHES $80 im out.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
i think that’s the smart play. the moves down, could be slow. and if you’re holding options, it might be better to get out on a swift move down and be done with it. good luck!
February 5th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
—- $85 PUT —- close at $80 OPEX = $5 value. this is probably
the goal of the market on this one. im going to just put these for
sale at $5.00 …………… 60% GAIN if they sell at $5
1054 breaking….now what 1035?
February 5th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
…I am waiting after 2:00 PM….we will see the truth…
…I don´t like to short at current levels….
———- SETTING UP MORE SELL ORDERS ——– at my price target for PUTS
some of my positions are approaching targets.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
rotating 20 positions this week you would never believe me if i posted how much ive made. all these tiny trades add up.
xlf broke the 13.72 area like we talked about. look to sell at 13.57 at 200ma. rebuy if 200ma breaks.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Woo, where’s the closest fib support?
February 5th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
oyy….i’m looking at LONG term charts so..the next MAJOR fib is in …12.53? haha, basically a gap down to there. however, i think the head&shoulders type play might be more likely, and i’m looking for a rise soon to offset some long term RSI (although it’s not necessary), but i think eventually we’re going to get to that 12.53 area…
i’m going to wait before entering short.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Thanks Woo!
I am taking a break from my busy week.
I hope all of you who went long with me last Friday all got out on Tuesday when RSI(14) pierced above 50. I was looking for a re-test of 1120, but I did say that it didn’t have to be hit.
On the weekly chart, the setup now is a high-volume two bar break (the final two weeks of January) of 1120, low volume rise re-test and now a high volume bar that may close near its lows. This action is bearish. I don’t care if the RSI(14) indicators are saying it’s oversold, I am shorting this market straight down to 956.
Next week, we’ll break 1020. Don’t try to get cute by attempting to catch all the small rips, or you’ll end up like the wounded bulls.
If any of you followed Morris into the GS long, get out today, it’ll be your last chance.
(I sold short JPM yesterday after seeing the breach of 1090.)
February 5th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
Thanks for your thoughts Fritz.
Are there any other stocks you’re looking at shorting? AMZN, GS? Or you’re thinking pretty much anything should go down, since you think SPX will hit 956
hard to say exactly where the trend line is on the spx. i zoomed in and it looks like it could be around 1045 or so. i might not be that greedy, and sell closer to 1047 levels, in case it’s a slow move to 1045 and it decays my options.
a 1045 break and that’s another great put entry position on spx which should allow for a move towards 1037.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
i’ll still be considering calls around 1045-1046 assuming we get at least a dead cat bounce at that trend line. i doubt it will break on the first try. this would be a quick scalp where you raise your stops as you go to make sure you’re in positive territory and lock in profits.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
…Do you consider any ABC for W2….or it is completely over and W3 (considering last higher highs and Monday/Tuesday rebound) already started ?
February 5th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
this is a pretty fierce wave down similar to the wave 1 down, so i’m assuming that if there is a 5 wave down to follow, it’s going to be slow and a bit painful to watch, most likely dried up volatility to come.
i think an ABC movement is to come and that wave 3 down MIGHT be over.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
preparing for the 1045 area. if taking calls here, take a tight stop underneath it. a break of this line could mean very heavy falling…
February 5th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
…I can´t find any reason for 1045, why? For me it is only a indication for a further drop….short….
….It will not stop at those current levels…middle of nowhere
February 5th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75220322370&a=181956106
if BAC keeps heading south like this, it’s going to break down towards 14.31 in a hurry…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25088602712&a=190186487
Wow…big dump….enjoy the enema!
I just covered my shorts although big boys still are short but they may start covering slowly. I think Monday could start with a big gap down but my guess is that that would be just an opportunity for big boys to cover thier shorts. So Monday should close positive even if we start down, If that happens then i would consider that as a sign that big boys are long going to next couple days. The strenght of the rally could tell us whether we are going to 1200 or we are setting for another move down toward 1000. The good new news is that big boys will tell us, so stick with boys and make money.
here’s my updated chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p98899442695&a=181956106
close enough to my trend line for me. my trend line could be off too.
bought spy at 1.82. sold at 2.36
—————– V —————– anyone who followed me into this GREAT TRADE. im up 60% in these puts. only have a couple. ive put them out for sale at $5. look at the daily chart
LOWER BB = $80 …. and this also psychological support level as even number. while the wave count points to $78 sometimes its better safe than sorry. they are trading at $4.85 right now and it would not be bad to get out here either. im holding for even $5.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
lowered my ask to $4.90 ———- lots of wiggling and squiggling here.
ORDER FILLED $4.90
————- RF ———– trading under $6. you can see this resist back in DEC.
this is an interesting spot. its also my strike price for my MAY PUTS $6
s&p is crazy oversold….approaching levels not seen since Feb/Mar 09
February 5th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
AGREE. holding a bunch of PUT positions over the weekend is not the smartest move. im unloading most my front month. keeping my earnings plays.
i’m going to wait on buy calls.
there’s going to be some decay and possibly consolidation. 6 month chart says bounce.
1 month chart says, bounce, but consolidation.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
there’s a chance we could wedge below that light blue trend line. until we break back north of that trend line, i’m going to wait on my calls because decay will eat away at any current month, and a hold over the weekend followed by decay will even hurt march options a bit if we move sideways.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Woo:
What do you see as the most likely level for a decent bounce on the S&P ? And, to what level ?
Thanks
February 5th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
this current area. 1045ish on the long term chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75220322370&a=181956106
it bounced perfectly. also it is almost the exact same length as wave 1 down. so this wave 3 has met it’s minimum requirement and has also hit the 3 month trend line.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
but a quick note to add. the 2 wave was very drawn out in an expanded flat correction, that means the 4 wave up will most likely be strong and fierce. watch out for this up move (whether it’s a 4 wave or a 1 wave to start a new up movement) to take a lot less time than the week and a half that wave 2 took.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Sorry to be the slow one here on the boards but I just want to double check with you masters…Wave 1&3 were the movements down and Wave 2&4 were/will be the movements up right?
February 5th, 2010 at 2:17 pm
correct. labeled for your convenience:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
February 5th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
woo, do you think we will have a bull monday again?
February 5th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
if market opens above 1052, there’s a good chance.
areas to watch will be 1052 (trend line), 1056 (50ma/5min), 1067.4 (38% retrace), and 1074 (50% retrace, but 200ma/5min will also probably be around there monday).
but just in case there is a fall, i’m going to hold off on my call position until consolidation is gone, or we gain more support north of here at the levels mentioned above.
Market behaving as predicted. Speed of drop increased after 9920. Just as planned this leg down should stop around 9675-9725 or 1032-1035. I would favor a bounce at this level To retest former support now resistance of 9920 or 1062. Long term we are going downtown to at least 9250 or 973 by March.
——— MTD ——– has failed $96.20 so not bullish. but there is no lack of buyers here either. im probably unloading this today. even if it does not hit $93. dont always get what you want
——— BPL PUTS ——– i cant believe i got such a nice fill this morning. someone just paid 75% more for the same contracts. REPORTS AH. $0.70 for $50 MAR is still not bad.
JUST KINDA DECLINED ON A BIT OF VOLUME TODAY
look at BPL daily
February 5th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
—- OMC —- already in the money … front month. REPORTS MON MORN
——- SWI —— doing nothing. may bail at the close and take a position
after they report MON MORN
Hitting the 200 day Exponential ma
Next Supports on SPX – 1040, 1020, 978,956
200 SMA – 1018 …
Looks like we might be heading to 1040 to 1020 range for short term.
the market needs to open below today’s lows in order to have a strong down day on monday, but i don’t think this is likely.
..Hi Guys..
I have some formations that might explain this move:
- There is a nice bearish formation from 107.50 level to today lows. It just reached 161.8% and retraced a little bit
Summarizing:
- if it drops further, it will go until 102.8, 261.8% (match 02 Fibonacci formations)
- if there is any rebound, go long for a scalp. 161.8% is common extension for W3
I am ready to trade in any direction if something unfolds
February 5th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
…my strategy based on post #27..it looks like minor W4 is in force
…Current reversal only reached 23.6%…too weak..
..I will go long, today or Monday…if it goes beyond 106.5 area….invalidating this minor bearish formation….
…short beyond today´s lows, 104.5
——- U V V ——- this one i was so excited about failed to break the neckline at $45.
im out of the trade only losing commissions.
UUP hitting 50 week ma
——– BXP ——– bounced before the target of $62 ………. put them out for sale.
getting out of MOST my FEB PUTS.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
SOLD THE LAST 3 …. $2.90 each. $2 ITM + $0.90 premium. that is a hefty premium imo. this should decay over the weekend. if the market stays flat then these puts will simply go down in value with out the need of a price move.
Taking some profits in uup and sds.
IS ANYONE GOING LONG ANYTHING TODAY….. or looking at an entry point?
XOM —- never made it to $62 bullish ?
SWI —- this one is trading volume and holding ahead of earnings.
i have puts but im considering switching teams.
PFG — i have calls ahead of earnings on the double bottom, oversold.
PBI — still holding these calls
ANY OTHERS ?
February 5th, 2010 at 2:29 pm
i might take a march SPY position before the day is over.
if we break above the 1052 trend line area, i’ll probably start jumping in there. now i regret not taking a position at my 1045 bottom haha.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
funny you say that as i had no idea we hit 1045. took the SPX ticker off my screen as i tried to follow positions. ill put it back on and look for 1052
Risky one here, but I bought some GS Mar 155 calls @ 6.15
February 5th, 2010 at 2:31 pm
charted that one yesterday . remember seeing $150 as a floor.
what did you see in this ?
February 5th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
$148-150, plenty of resistance. but this is the 2nd time it has hit those levels. next time it goes down to 148, it might break down. Looking for at least 152.50 if not 155.90 is gap support.
I’m sitting it out unless cascade down to 1020-30 area on SPX. Any news is still bad news to this market. But I am starting to scale out of shorts/hedges a bit.
————– PBI ————- every buyer who bought in the last 40days … happy to get out
LOOK AT THE DAILY CANDLE …. YUCK
im selling my calls.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
unless it has a sudden surge in the last hour of course. im doubting that.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:42 pm
further evidence. not trading in the front month calls. if anyone had confidence they could buy this up youd think theyd load up on some $0.30 calls first.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
IM OUT OF THIS ONE
Richard,
If you don’t mind, can you provide me your thoughts on MTW and THC?
February 5th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
sorry i missed this during the day. maybe you read this later.
pretty weak retrace in MTW. may just be slightly range bound.
id put a limit short order in PUT that line up with a a tag of $11.50
and then keep the position so long as it trades below the 20SMA.
if it does not pop enough to back test $11.50…. $11.25 looks like
the next best spot to take a position. it is a bit oversold so may
wiggle and squiggle in this area for a few day before failing.
THC wait and see if we get a small market rise early next week. you could then take a position against the 40 or 80sma on the daily. $5.40 or so.
my goal is to watch alot of stocks. once you know what to look for you will find spots to take positions in a few each day.
market breaking down, but AAPL still hovering breakeven..
hm…??? break today???
February 5th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Was expanding diagonal from top, now in wave 2, passed a of 2, today b of 2, expect up till ~200 as c of 2 – and then down with wave 3
…my strategy based on post #27..it looks like minor W4 is in force
…Current reversal only reached 23.6%…too weak..
..I will go long, today or Monday…if it goes beyond 106.5 area….invalidating this minor bearish formation….
…short beyond today´s lows, 104.5
February 5th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
…105.5 is 38.2%…
Anyone calling a green Monday now
I’m just waiting for the day when Mondays will not be green anymore.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
i am.
part of me wants the market to stay below this 1052 trend line so i can buy a good position into monday, but it looks like 1052 might crack, and i’ll have to buy earlier than later…
February 5th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
this shouldn’t break on the first backtest though.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
..yes…missing old times…..
February 5th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
are you going to gamble for Monday?
February 5th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
i am going to go long into monday.
——— SWI ———- out of this trade — NO WAGER EITHER WAY …leaning to bullish.
EARNINGS PLAYS ===== HOLDING OVER === OMC BPL WCN
1054.5 is the 50ma/5min, if it breaks above that, it’s very bullish into monday.
—— BEZ ——- violated my level and wil clearly close above it. bailing while these PUTS can still fetch something. SOLD
—— BPL —— im up 200% ……. and they have yet to report. ill take the risk.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
if my memory serves me correct…. they are OIL SERVICES
Mind the Gap,
I am on a buying spree to get my hands on all February puts. I don’t care if I lose a bit into Monday, because I am seeing a sell-side continuation all the way into February opex.
Don’t go all in though, I won’t. I am leaving a bit for any rip higher on Monday.
Pretty much any stock I picked are turning out to be the biggest losers right now (biggest profit makers for me). Don’t be fooled by the daily candle formed today even if it looks like bullish engulfing. It is the weekly candle that counts.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
Thanks Fritz, I sold my GS calls I bought earlier for a scalp. I already have some calls going into Monday which I bought yesterday so I’ll hold them and sell them on Monday and switch to puts again. What stocks are you considering to short. Is it the old list?
AXP, GS, JPM, etc.
BOOYAH! gg
—————- MONDAY ————– im getting some SPY CALLS against my remaining positions as a hedge. hopefully this time my hedge dont cost me $500
February 5th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
———- PREFERRING ………. FAZ PUTS………. FRONT MONTH ———
February 5th, 2010 at 3:13 pm
TOOK some FEB20 PUTS FAZ —- good luck MONDAY
im still holding some front month. INCLUDING MTD
February 5th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
MTD staying under $96.20 is my key. sold my X puts for so litle profit to watch them go +800% … .this one feels similar.
…I am almost ready to jump in the wagon….61.8% is over…..
February 5th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
..reached 76.4% and dropped a little bit….
..I have orders for 106.5
February 5th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
..I am happy to go long…happy Monday
Market is rallying in anticipation of Mutual Fund Monday
February 5th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
i know what you mean. im more bearish than bullish out to MARCH as im holding many puts past MARCH. shorts are covering in fear of an up MONDAY and swing traders buying like mad thinking its a sure thing.
Monday will be interesting. if we dont pop. the selling may
come fast and hard. im actually going to get up for the open
1067 is the next point to watch.
however, there could be a slight drop monday at open before rising.
if the market drops at all on monday prior to hitting 1067, it’s an automatic buy signal for me.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
God damn, Woo you are good. I got interrupted right after you responded to my bounce question and I come back and the S&P is up 15 points before I have a chance to even make a decision.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
haha thanks =P. beautiful bounce off the long term trend line and EW wave 1=3. 1052 trend line break for further confirmation. 1054.5 50ma break for even more confirmation. chaching!
February 5th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
market is oversold now. took spy call profit at the 1062 area. will wait for monday for the next move.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
I need to learn discipline from watching you guys trade. I’m so much better at capturing losses than profits. My trading times are ok but I buy the wrong side…good learning experiences tho. Again, thanks for all the commentary from you, idan, fritz, and everyone here! Good luck to all!
February 5th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
fast markets,
woo and Idan and Fritz are doing a great job here !
thanks a lot!
Time to add to short positions. Will buy QID and EDZ in a minute.