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05
Feb
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5:32pm
The market did it’s thing and now we have to change our lines based on the action. Instead of using prior closes for candles to draw my trendline, I now have to use the lows which shifts the trendline slightly down. Here’s the 240 min SPX;
11:59am
Market is hitting up against that trend-line again! if we break it, watch out for another 2% fall.
10:45am
GE has been a stock that has managed to hold up relatively speaking in this type of bloody market. Today we hit long term support, if we break this support now at 15.65, we could see GE retrace adown to the low 15.10s and possibly low 14s fast after that:
10:27am
Well here’s the bounce that we looked for, right on the dot. AAPL is getting a nice bounce, it did not break it’s H&S formation yet, it might need a few days to form a more substantial right shoulder, but i do believe that the market once it breaks down, will shove AAPL below 190. Also XLF60 minute below shows that the H&S there has broken down, we might want to retrace the neckline first before some more breakdowns at 14.00-14.03:
10:07am
Here we go, we are down -0.7% as mentioned in my video, we should be getting a bounce around these areas 1054-1055. A break of my line is VERY VERY bearish, but i do expect a bounce.
9:39am
And there’s the puke trade i was talking about… make sure 1055 is really the level of support here.
9:33am
UPS despite gapping up with the SPY in the last few minutes, is showing strong bearish divergences compared to the broad markets. Any break below yesterday’s low would bring another shoot down to this stock. AAPL, go short under $190 because on the H&S showed in my video.
8:44am
Here’s my 240 min USO chart. As you can see, a break of the 35.40 level would make me bearish on the USO up until the high 30s (red descending support line). It looks like a head and shoulders formation held by that 35.40 level.
8:35am
Jobs data is a little mixed, 20K lost jobs in jan, 0.7% revision down of all jobs lost since depression began but unemployment rate dropping to 9.7%. I say, play it my way, hope for the puke trade and go long at my 1054-1055 levels.
7:07am
Jobs report coming out at 8:30 am, this is going to be a game changer, but here is a 240 minute SPY.. with strong support on my blue line (ascending) at 1055-1056. Like i mentioned yesterday, the puke trade is in play, people are selling down, we hit that line on the ES futures, but we might want to hit it again in cash trading. If this line breaks, 1032 is the next support (23.6% retracement of the whole rally since march):
4:00am
It’s as if the futures just saw my video and decided to dip from +20 to -60.
In my video I talk about a bounce on the blue trendline shown (around 1055-1056) but that might only be a momentary bounce of a few hours rather than days. We could fall down to a 23.6% retacement of the WHOLE move up at 1032 very fast. Will have a chart for your when trading begins!
Today we look at the market sell off that we were able to predict very accurately. For the past 2 weeks we have hit the nail on the head in every move, down and up. The SPY target for the rally was 110.40, and even though we peaked a little above that, the 60 minutes never closed above 110.40.
Jobs numbers will be coming out tomorrow, but we might get a little bit of that puke trade where we sell off a few more points in the morning and then bounce back. A break of the blue trendline would mean heavier sell offs.
We look at the GLD triangle, SPY, AAPL, UPS and BPI.
as i mentioned earlier, this wave 4 will be MUCH faster because the wave 2 was so drawn out for a week and a half. i didn’t think it would be THIS fast though… lol
February 5th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Woo:
What do you think is the most probable bounce level of wave 4 ?
Thanks
February 5th, 2010 at 3:29 pm
i really doubt that the 200ma isn’t going to play on the 5 minute chart since it’s sitting in between the 38-50% fib retrace of the wave 3 down.
1067s is the 38% retrace, but the 200ma is sitting at 1072.98 at the moment. 50ma at 1074.5.
so even though 1067 is a good place to stop, the 1070s looks better.
have to be careful though because this is a signal of a wave 3 finish which means that a new wave 1 north could begin instead of a wave 4.
best position is to buy drops and sell rises until u see 1067. if we start breaking north of 1081, then we need to consider bullishness and possible new highs.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
thanks for posting all your levels woo. i write them all down.
noteable trade in VISA. after holding above the lower BB this thing is now holding a key level in my books. the DAILY 80SMA @ $81.86
id say this VISA candle is more bullish than bearish. however, how bullish is it other than for a small bounce.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
no problem rich. glad it’s useful.
V is one of those stocks that i am a little scared to touch haha. i’ll try and chart it over the weekend.
the current market action is good for monday. if you’ve held calls/longs starting from down below, then it shouldn’t eat up too much of your profits. i would place stops below the 50 ma just in case.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
Woo – just saw your links for SPX also working now – thank you so much
BULLISH POSITIONS IM HOLDING : FAZ PUTS, PFG CALLS, GE CALLS (GE looks dead)
most front month PUTS are now cash
holding these FEB PUTS — MTD (live) — M (live) — OMC (live) — OTEX (dead) —
SIMPLY JAMAZING WEEK. GOOD LUCK NEXT WEEK!
February 5th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
one more POINT…did i post enough today?
PFG CALLS. …. this one opened $22.80 …. lod = $21.59
$0.60 from LOD is the 50FIB for todays action.
$22.19+ at the close leaves me more confident
February 5th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Double up next week Richard. They luv ya. Have a nice weekend.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
good times. i think you’ll be fine into monday. might see a small drop into open, but you should still be fine. watch those SPX points i mentioned above to look for good positions to get out.
whether we head north or south after this rise, there should be a good amount of time to get out, if we drop i think the 5 wave will be drawn out since 1 and 3 waves were fairly fast. if we rise, there are a couple significant points that will let us know to look out.
Yep, i’m covering more sds
Re-posting:
Mind the Gap,
I am on a buying spree to get my hands on all February puts. I don’t care if I lose a bit into Monday, because I am seeing a sell-side continuation all the way into February opex.
Don’t go all in though, I won’t. I am leaving a bit for any rip higher on Monday.
Pretty much any stock I picked are turning out to be the biggest losers right now (biggest profit makers for me). Don’t be fooled by the daily candle formed today even if it looks like bullish engulfing. It is the weekly candle that counts.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
——— DAILY AND WEEKLY CANDLES look like probable reversals —– this is what im seeing. the Daily Candle especially. however looking at the WEEKLY chart and the 40SMA…. it looks like a magnet at 1024. this matches the wave count for A = C = 75 from 1100. stall out MONDAY and plummet TUESDAY… and then get a capitulation like move. id like to see that so i can get this 1025 out of my head. it will keep haunting me until it hits
also, if 1067 hits TODAY, i would consider getting out of long positions. then the spx is too overbought and the retrace has hit. it could mean a sharp drop to come, and a retest of the 1045 line.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
woo, do you plan to go short if it hits 1067? or you would wait until Monday?
February 5th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
i’m going to wait until monday. hit 1067 on the dot. scary.
potential to rise to 200ma or fib retraces above. or it could tank into new lows.
after a 3 wave, it’s too risky to bet on 4 wave vs 1 wave without more confirmation in the charts.
PPT
————- UUP ———— a case for the bulls.
WEEKLY CHART
OVERBOUGHT … RAN INTO RESISTANCE.
DAILY CHART
DOJI REVERSAL ?
February 5th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
ya Rich looks like uup hit is upper trendline resistence today i bot some dgp double gld for a scalp.
———– MTD ———– now clearly violating any retrace point. $96.20 was my key. now trading at $96.74. this only a 3.25% drop from $100.
GAP SUPPORT TODAY hitting $94 ………. volume came in.
GUESS I JUST TAKE PROFITS
February 5th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
going to wait until the last minute and see if it holds $96.50
February 5th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
PRETTY AMAZING . buyers step up on a less than stellar earnings report in a company that makes expensive industrial scales and pays no dividend on shares that cost $100 each. never cease to be amazed.
no bid for these puts. im going to bail on any weakness.
for positions taken after the 1054 50ma break, it is fine to hold into tomorrow, any positions taken after that it’s a bit risky. the 200ma is probably the most significant resistance north of here at 1072, and the 1054 is the support below. trend lines for the channel are outside of these two points. that’s roughly 10 points to either side, which makes it rough to take any new positions right now into monday.
lol touched 1067 exactly HAHA.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:07 pm
oh nooooooooooooooo…. lol.
IM IN A GREAT MOOD …….. +$0,000 today. dont
hopefully i can continue
want to disclose exactly how much
at this amazing clip and finish the month +$10,000 or more.
since im basically unemployed at this time… need it.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:09 pm
great job! play smart and you will have more than 10k this month
February 5th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
good times! =)
February 5th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Awesome Richard
spy closed at 106.66…scary
February 5th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
great posts today everyone!!! Have a good weekend
February 5th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
thank god my screen says 106.71
At 1.42PM when I covered my shorts I told you guys that big boys may start covering thier shorts as well and it happened exactly as I said. stick with big boys and make money.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
“I told you guys”, “it happened exactly as I said”. Dude, give us some concrete information that can be used. You constantly make comments like you know everything–if so, Wall Street needs you!
February 5th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
The problem is that I do not have anything concrete so you would like it. My commnets is enough concrete reason that you do not need concrete info to be successful. Basically a large average of investors lose money in a long term beacuse they have a lot of concrete info and those concrete info are acting like a dam to be successful. Yo may not understand thiese thing but I know a guy who have 40years experince in trading and he knows several time more concrete info than anybody here. He runs a website and charge people to give them advise. Last week he went long on Gold when gold was above 1100, beacuse the concrete info told him to do so, but I was short gold till this afternoon just based on big boys action on Gold.
February 5th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
Trying to figure where you are coming from. I follow TA, have made several hundred thousand dollars since Jan. of last year–don’t trade on the “movements” (who can tell!!) of the “big booooooys”, just my own intuitions.
Absolute amazing day!! Market goes down 167.09 and then makes another miraculous come back and ends green plus 10.03. Talk about a volitile whipsaw mercy sakes alive.
Despite the sentiment on this board, I see us going down quick.
People are still way too careful with shorts. Call me reckless, but I went 85% short at the end of the day. Why? Because I saw the same kind of action on February 6 2009. Remember I said I expected a 250 point gainer for February 5 2010? Measuring from the bottom up we have the DOW gaining nearly 200 points and S&P gaining more than 2% off the lows.
We shall see next week.
BTW, can anyone let me know if Morris got out of GS?
February 5th, 2010 at 4:27 pm
well we hit the 1067 area and we can tank hard after open on monday if the market wants. i’ve got no new positions into monday. the rise into close makes it overbought, and a slightly more bearish lean. good luck.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Truly, the markets have changed.. dipbuyers will get slopped in half.. my cycle of feb 1st did not hold.. target is unknown where we finally bottom..
HOWEVER WE HAVE YET TO TEST THE 200DAY MOVING AVERAGE and we are still trading in a bullish channel (longterm perspective)
here is my chart:
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/9450/spcharts.png
man.. i havent traded a bearish trend in 9 months time.. it sure is different LOL.
THE $CPCE has never put in a number above 1.0 since the start of the initial downwave. This really scares me. I took this screenshot at 9:37AM.. it closed even higher than this.. http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/1618/cpcechart.png
Since March 2009, this indicator has been very reliable, but why are so many puts being bought? Is it smart money buying the puts at 1060 when IV is already a ton higher than on Jan1st, 2010?
thoughts? guys?
February 5th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
GS and JPM are long puts, short calls.
Most traders/investors have been conditioned to buy the dips throughout the past 11 months. This works to big institutions’ advantage because when they short, they know people will likely hang on to their shorts.
My initial target for this drop is 956. I am shorting fearlessly because I see formations that I like for high probability and high profitability trading. No longer will I trade to get stopped out for 2% or 3% meager gains. I will aim to trade and gain 300% to 900%.
zee, I know you’re bullish biased, and I can see why. The first two years after a severe crash generally do not result in corrections greater than 10%. However, historically, bear markets have never had V-bottoms. My bias is not DOW 1000, but rather a quick visit to DOW 6000 and a double dip recession. If it breaks below DOW 6000 though, look out! DOW 2800 is the next most significant support, and below that is 1000. God help us if DOW breaches 6000.
February 5th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
*hang on to their longs
sorry
February 5th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
Well until a couple key support levels get’s broken (i.e 985 and 1018) I will remain bullish. I’m sorry, but a 8.5% selloff is not impressive. Since March, the average sell-off has been 7.5%.
The $CPCE is recording record levels of investor bearishness sentiment. Since WHEN has the majority been right? NEVER.
Now tell me, is smart money the one who is bearish, 8-9% off the highs of the year and VIX being up 50%? Or is it dumb money getting bearish after finally being down 8-9% and paying huge premiums in puts and calls.
I understand the tide has changed (secondary trend); however, eventually we’ll bottom out…
Last Trade for the SPY: 106.66
I wouldn’t be suprised if this is the low of the decade.
(yes bullish, and yes im kidding, but techncially I could be RIGHT until proven wrong..
Fritz, look at the SPY volume: 493,485,900
someones buying it up
look at VXX volume, someones shorting
look at DIA volume, someones buying
look at XOM volume, someones accumulating
look at F, someones accumulating
huge volume days usually signify a turnaround. im not saying that the selling has stopped but until Greece defaults or some catastrophic event like that happens, I’m bullish mayne.
February 5th, 2010 at 10:12 pm
did you answer the question yesterday when the poster asked why you were getting back from class if you work for a hedge fund and have a 400k portfolio?
before you start calling lows for the decade I was just wondering if you were a college student or a pro..
February 6th, 2010 at 6:24 am
See you at 970 then.
I don’t disagree with you on XOM, though. I am actually still bullish on this stock, and the entire energy sector as a whole. I think, just like 2008, the financials were leading the first leg down (until Bear Stearns), and the energy/mining sector were leading the counter-trend rally up until May 2008. VALE is still in a bullish formation, and same with CVX. I need to look up more energy/mining sector stocks to buy for the second leg up.
Again, my bias is not the same as other P3 believers. I am only looking at DOW 6000 being my ultimate target. Until my indicators suggest otherwise, I am not going to adjust my view.
February 5th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
Your calls have made me considerable monies–thank you. Thought that the 400+ day was yesterday, but held on. Don’t do puts or calls, will hold for 1025 until going long. Also, don’t know about Morris–he also was into UCO for a good bit. The market giveth, but also taketh. Having said, still appreciated his posts, even though disagreements abounded.
February 6th, 2010 at 6:26 am
We’ll very likely blow right past the 1015-1025 band.
I am happy today and I do wish everyone to do good. I have been trading full time since 2nd week of Jan 2010. I thought I had Jan 2010 the best month but looks like Feb will be much better. WOW. I did made good money for TOS (commission). I have traded over 1400 times past 4 weeks. I think over 800 times I was stop out! For Jan 2010 I was up 22% and for Feb 2010 first week I am up 35%+ (Yes that’s 57% profit this year! Actually I had almost doubled my money but gave back some and I think that’s fair
2009 was the worst year of my 9 year trading life and I never even wish to think about it. Idan, knows I lost huge $$$, but it was all because I was not willing to use stop loss! Thanks to Idan who had I realized that stop loss is actually your profit!
Have a nice weekend.
nabbasi@gmail.com
February 5th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
Awesome Nas
February 5th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Wow good stuff!! Can you elaborate on what you changed and how you go about your trades?
February 5th, 2010 at 6:36 pm
I would love to discuss on this matter but we are here in VA having a snow storm expected snow is over 30″ so have to go out and shop for food..
February 5th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Maybe after you’ve dug yourself free? Hehe…say safe nas!
Woo – what do you think of AAPL here ?
February 5th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Hi, I can’t answer for Woo, but have you looked at gs on the 5, 60 and daily?
Broke out of Idan’s wedge yesterday to the downside. Broke up out of its new wedge today to the upside. Several days ago, I mentioned March 150 calls to you. Since that time I have traded those amd 155s intraday with 5 figure results.
Also, do you recall Fritz writing he would sell on Feb 4 win/lose and he was long gs. Seems I can recall something like that, but since I don’t follow him, I am not sure.
February 6th, 2010 at 3:15 am
yes…got some feb puts today? predictions for mon and next week??
thanks ..
Market updates with elliot wave counts:
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/02/elliott-wave-update-5-february.html