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04
Feb
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3:49pm
Tomorrow we have january’s jobs number which will shift the markets quite a lot, but the charts point to more downside of at least 2-3%.
2:43pm
A bear victory today would be a true close below 107.30 on the SPY… that was our last level of support, and i think we will break it this time around (with a potential for a slight hourly bounce).
2:05pm
wooooo, the gold triangle worked like a charm. We got the exact move up, and now the breakdown to the south. 60 min:
12:01am
On monday-tuesday we got the exact rally we were hoping for. We had a massive rally up to the 38.2% retracement stopping right at the 110.40 level. Yesterday, even though the market did go down, the market action was not necessarily too bearish. The SPY managed to hold above 109.50 the whole day. I would like to see that break to the downside before i start shorting hard. As most of you alraedy know we made about 5% on our BDK trade and around 3-4% on our EW (I got stopped out from both). BPI we’re still holding, hoping for another few up days, however we are moving the stop back up to $14.60 to limit our loss. Here’s a 60 minute of the SPY, and you can see where resistance is, and why 109.50 is important support. If we break 110.40, we’ll probably see the 50% retracement.
Here is a daily, and you can see, this is not the type daily candle you would like to see for a reversal, however, tomorrow and friday’s jobs numbers will probably sway the markets to decide where we go from here. Here’s a SPY daily.
The reason why I do favor the downside over the upside (ever so slightly) is because I believe the financials are weak here. Take a look at the XLF 60 minute, we broke down the wedge, same with GS (which had a very bearish day).
A potential short that we are looking at is UPS. Not only is it’s PE up in the 20s, and for it’s growth that is ridiculous. But we believe it might have some more downside. I’d be more confident shorting it if it broke my support red line, but even on a bounce, you can short it at a higher price with a stop above the blue resistance. Take a look at the UPS Daily:
—– BEZ —– i have the FIB at $26.50 and this one stayed thier for a bit and now shows failure. im holding these puts into earnings if it stays down here.
—- GIGM —- while i believe we are headed to 1025 …. im buying calls in this one.
ORDER FILLED — JULY $5 CALL $0.10 ——
February 4th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
ahhhh. GIGM!! i remember this during the china boom. i made ridiculous amounts of money on options on this sucker. good ol video games stock. haven’t kept track of this company in ages though. good luck!
Think the S&P breaks 10k? I think it will.
I meant Dow lol.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
If S&P breaks 10k, I hope I have some calls to cash in! Hehehe…
February 4th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Yea me too lol. Would be better than the lottery!
———- WGL ——- NEVER FLUSHED ME OUT OF MY PUTS …… this is pretty funny
LOOK at the DAILY candle being formed on this one.
———- NYT ——— ABC corretive puts a price of $11.50. however, also a gap in the daily chart back at $11.25. im UNLOADING my PUTS at $11.25 – $11.55 area.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
Any projections on BAC?? Also, still holding puts on BA, almost sold when you did, but after the airbus news decided to hold.:) Projection???
February 4th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
sold my front month BA PUTS but ….. i kept my long term PUTS BA.
im not trading BAC. have 20 positions. looking at the chart $13.50 is where id want to run out of a SHORT TERM short position. consecutive daily closes above $15.50 would have me concerned.
Wow SPY hit 106.95!
——— SRS ———- 80SMA DAILY @ $8.52 should be a barrier to higher prices. this ETF has driven me nuts so im probably not the only one that will want out at that spot.
I’m looking for another 1% down today, and hoping for that as mentioned 8 hours ago. Anybody with me??
February 4th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
…I don’t think so…really
February 4th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
If not today then tomorrow.
——— PBI ———- you want to gamble they beat ?? i unloaded my puts down at $21.30 for a reason. now trading above my key level $21.60. very oversold on the weekly. ugly balance sheet but they can still be rewarded by the market for good numbers. FRONT MONTH $22.50 CALL ahead of earnings today. i see something i like in a stock i hate.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
ORDER FILLED. $0.25 each . 5 contracts. small gamble.
February 4th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
back in SEPT this dog defied the deathly DRAGONFLY DOJI to gap up.
..I am not pissed off because I sold my PUTs very early (17% gains)….50% is always a very strong Fibonacci support…therefore this is the main reason why I did not enjoy the full ride with much higher profits….
..By the way… my TA indicators are showing extreme oversold levels without any long signal yet…however those levels triggered the rallies that we had this week
February 4th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
So whatcha thinking? Consolidate tomorrow or dig even deeper tomorrow and or look for a bounce Monday? Or possibly bounce tomorrow?
February 4th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Check post #47.
Reason:
- ABC correction
- TA daily indicators are bullish
- Sentiment indicators (McClellan and Zweig) are bullish
About dates, I do agree with you. Mondays were always bullish
February 4th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
VERY INTERESTING ….. a week ago or so i posted a cycle low to be made on the 4th or 5th. id like to see a capitulation type move tomorrow. if we do or dont get that im still going to trim back some postions ahead of target. you can have targets and everything says they hit. and bam … profits gone.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
….I accept a further drop…mainly because PPO hourly still has some room to go..anyway it looks too risky for me…so I prefer to wait for a more reliable move…
..sitting on cash in order to scalp some SPY CALLs in a short term
sold AMZN puts for a 7% gain. Will keep an eye on it, market looks very oversold. May pick up some calls before the close.
Richard, what are your top 2 short candidates?
February 4th, 2010 at 4:26 pm
id sell PBI STRENGTH here. but be patient. it is oversold on WEEKLY
NYT has 4% to go imo.
ONB …see it gonig back to $11.25 and then $10 … but dont know when.
trying to pick the best short candidate for a rush move is tough. a chart
im in 20 positions
may show news that is coming out a week or month later. it gives you a
sell signal but the emotional sell comes when the news comes. this is
why i have many MAR APR MAY puts in stocks i believe will be driven by
some news. however, the news may come in JULY
at a time for this reason. always one of them moving and keeps things
intersting. watching one stock wiggle and squiggle makes me crazy.
———- GMXR ——— cashing in half my PUTS based on the HND.TO weekly chart. this chart looks very NEUTRAL barely holding the 80SMA.
THESE PUTS ARE +69% so nothing to sneeze at. i still predict further downside. HND.TO daily is bullish imo. im ok taking profits on half and riding the rest to oblivion.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
There is horizontal support around 9.50-10, I think I’ll wait for a bounce.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
——— PHM ——– also have these PUTS up for grabs at $0.75. this chart has gone wacko imo. the short squeeze in the homebuilders JAMAZING
ORDER FILLED. sold HALF my position.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
GMXR …. order filed.
Put an order in for July 2.50 calls @ 0.70 for GIGM.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Order filled 30 contract @ 0.70.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
we are both in. i took the $5.00 at $0.10 (just 15 – peanuts). may get some more if it tests that $2.70 again and the same thing happens.
stuck in meetings all morning.
if this 1068 retrace collapses we might just head towards the 1059 area. i hope people were able to take that entry position i talked about at 1079, or the original top in the 1104-1105 area i mentioned a few days ago.
i sold puts earlier, and will wait for a 1068 break before even consider more puts, but may sit out a day in case there is consolidation or a dead cat bounce.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Hey woo…when you and others say “enter at spx xxxx” are you buying SPY calls/puts or other options while using the spx as a reference?
February 4th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
….might be enter option for stock XYZ, strike XXX….
…sometimes I buy options from other stocks triggered buy SPY prices targets…my broke call them “contingent orders”
February 4th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
spy options. sds and sso don’t have enough volume.
Sold all DZZ @14.96 (bought @$13.54 2 days ago); up 10.3%. GL.
———– MTD ——— daily BEARISH ENGULFING if it closes here. $97.10 or lower.
nice battle at this level. looking to reenter calls I was stopped out of this morning (spy 111 Feb). risky biz for sure as my feeling is that if this level breaks to the downside could be swift drop. Not doing anything at the moment as the fear has set in and it runs deep
Oh great the house just passed the debt ceiling to now 14 TRILLION!! Holy Smoley! Our beloved TV president really believes he gonna buy this recession out. Never happen we fooked.
The more the market stays here, the more likely that 1068 will break down.
SPY hasn’t been this low since Nov/8
February 4th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
True but when we have not seen a level for a long time it generally holds up pretty well..So far 107 is holding lets see if we close below it.
———— V ——— very interesting. bullish earnings call. all it managed was to hit the 50 FIB and reverse on the daily. i have this FIB $85.75 . also have the 20/40 SMA CROSS
IM A BUYER OF PUTS HERE —– good set up for another leg lower. perfect WAVE
February 4th, 2010 at 2:18 pm
looking at the $85 IMO put to trade a move to $78
February 4th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
looking for $83.50 as entry point. need a wee bounce here.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
BID $2.85 …. overnight trade. not hit. $2.86 was filled.
not going to chase these.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:42 pm
FILLED …. took a bigger pop to get them.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
FILLED on a hit of $83.80
so now what…. if this thing holds $84 for the day im going to bail.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
Hi Richard,
Are you holdng these overnight?
Thanks
Ims
February 4th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
IF IT holds under $84 its an overnight trade .. yes. no more than that because of the VOLATILITY PREMIUM you have to pay.
I’m thinking this market has already priced in a bad employment number for tomorrow, so unless the employment numbers are really horrible, it may go up either way.
February 4th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
…I prefer to stick with TA….usually I don’t care about news, otherwise I will be completely crazy…anyway looks very feasible indeed
We are exactly at the resistance level indicated by me in Tuesday. So far no surprises retest of 10050 and 1072. Remember this 9900-9025 or 1062 is the ultimate resistance and after that a very violent move to 1032 or 9575-9625 is expected. I am not thinking we will do it today and I thinking we will end the day around 10120 or 1077.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
JROD – you mean 1062 is support right ?
——– XOM ——— hopefully everyone took profits on calls. the target of $62 is looking more and more likely. if it hits $62 im unloading my SHORT OIL and buying a few calls in XOM.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
Richard – yes I did – waitn for 62 as well ….
..I don’t like PPO on 30 min charts…sometimes it shows fake moves (yesterday it closed very bullish), but it is showing a bullish cross…hourly one is still bearish…anyway it LOOKS like that some consolidation is in force
———– MTD ———– looks like a confirmed BEARISH ENGULFING on the daily unless this one pulls off some final hour magic. $93 TARGET
Al,
Any updates today?
—————- AFTER HOURS EARNINGS PLAYS ———
PBI CALLS — HOLDING
MTD PUTS — HOLDING
BEZ PUTS — HOLDING
UVV PUTS — considering ridding of 2/4 .. have them up for $1.05 . failed to
ORDER FILLED.
break the HS neckline at $45. the volume … very very light similar to OTEX.
and i remember well what happened to my OTEX PUTS
February 4th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
———— SRS ———– ST TARGET of $8.52 ……….. so close to it now. not worth the risk of holding over to gain another $0.13 …. im putting half my CALLS out.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
ive got them priced under value and cant get a buyer. DOH!
February 4th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
HA HA….. MR. MARKET hates me on this one. orders filled
up to $1.13 and i had mine out for $1.15
February 4th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
GOT $1.07 ……..im out of SRS . im sick of watching it underperform almost everything i pick over and over again. need reward with risk.
No reaction to the upside on 1067-1068, I’m thinking this thing is going to tank, if not today or tomorrow, then next week.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
I’m with you. I think we get below 10k djia and 1050 spx in short order today or tomorrow.
February 4th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
..in order to recall you..last Friday it closed very ugly without any bullish signal..it was only very oversold …what happened on Monday? I mean I expect the trend to change…no bullish Mondays any more
February 4th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Correct. I’m thinking with this trend change bullish Monday’s will go back to being bearish Monday’s, as they were and are during bear markets. Just my thought, could be wrong, but doubt it.
Sold my FAZ for a nice profit (for a change). Will re-load after the bounce tomorrow (and maybe through next week?).
February 4th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
not a terrible idea. im going to slowly unload positions. the majortiy close to 1035 area…. if we get there. going to continue running charts ahead of earnings. at some point ill be buying more calls than puts… hopefully. or we are all doomed… i say doomed!
Anyone buying spy calls into the close for tomorrow? Market is oversold however I am tentative given the level we are at and employment numbers come out tomorrow. Seems like a high risk high reward payoff…..thoughts??
February 4th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
I probably should have… I think we bounce tomorrow.
EW looks like it is going to crash. Earnings after the close. Could always be wrong but options look to be picking up more premium in the past couple hours. Expect a big move. Holding Mar 85 puts.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Brian, im holding a few into earnings. even the most bearish candle pre earnings is no guarantee. you just have to get more right than wrong. take the time to pick the best charts and you should do ok.
you may lose 100% or 50% on misses but you can gain 200% and 300% on hits. i just take my message from the daily and weekly charts prior and cross fingers.
another thing we see, like in VISA, wise $$ is selling into postive earnings strength. no better time to sell when buyers chase higher prices into a dieing economy.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
So far short looks to be the right side to be on
——– DRIV ——– thought to myself today…. not in my lifetime. watching this trade on light volume day after day holding $24.50. alas holders realise buyers will not pay up. now trading at $24.18. i have front month $25 PUTS
——- WGL —– took this position off the table. it is a defensive stock and looks like it has mostly completed its decline. better than having postion expire worthless.
————- MTD ————– i believe this company may meet or beat estimates. the USD$ has been very weak and that is good for them. however, the future with a stronger dollar will put pressure on earnings. the stock could still decline on strong earnings. the chart says lower we go. missing earnings will be a complete disaster consider the USD$ going up.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
————– PBI ————– beat, this was my expectation. its future still looks bleak but hopefully my short term trade on an oversold weekly chart works out.
im in the $22.50 front month calls at $0.25 . trading at $22.13
February 4th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
—– MTD —- $94 PRINT after hours. my target is $93. looks like it makes it and decide what to do there.
picked up a few spy calls for tomorrow…nothing crazy…but just enough to keep me interested and get me up bright and early for the open tomorrow. GL everyone and great posts today. Curious to see what Fritz’s take is on the market once he returns.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
spy 111 feb calls….in at .44
Thinking of getting into EDZ tomorrow, You guys think the best price will be early mid or late day tomorrow?
February 4th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Depends on market. If it tanks, wait for a buy the dip to set in. Seldom has a
buy puts on open worked in a down market.
EWZ short brazil, they have the most to fall ?
February 5th, 2010 at 3:36 am
Much appreciated Lochne, that makes a lot of sense. I will take that advice, and follow it. Thanks again my friend!
————- MY BRAIN HURTS ———– glad im out of a few things.
GLUCK TOMMORA
Sold my BA puts at close. Took the profit as i think we may bounce tomorrow, that is if the jobs numbers are not terrible. BUT, i will look to reload within a couple of days as the S&P punching thru 1065 level was critical and very telling for what may be coming. Still holding BAC puts as there may be more to that story!
With this close for sure big boys are still short. But this does not mean that stock can not rally for short term. I told you guys that Friday will be a huge sell off. well it happened one day eariler. Stick with big boys and make money.
Any way to buy options after hours?
February 4th, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Not that i’m aware of! Options are only tradable during reg market hours.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
no way to buy after market hours, however options trade for 15 minutes after the closing bell
February 4th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
You know I always wondered about that. I noticed Scotia has an after hours trading section, I wonder if they do options as well.
February 4th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Options on some indices trade for 15 minutes after the close, like SPY. To my knowledge no individual stock options trade after the 4 pm EST close.
February 4th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
you can trade some options 15-20 minutes after close like SPY depending on your broker.
Decided to pickup a handful of SSO afterhours as an alternative…
February 4th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
I think we might get a little bit of that puke trade early tomorrow and then bounce.
February 4th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
I was thinking little blip back up to 1080 or so and then collapse lower from there. Could be wrong, but I think we’ll try to get back up above 1080 and fail before too long.
February 4th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Do you really think anyone will hold long over the weekend?
February 4th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
Hard to say… will have to see how Friday plays out.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Any call on the low for gold at this point? Thanks for your charts.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:56 pm
104 was a very strong support for gld that was hit today.. a bounce of 1-2 days is possible, but the ultimate low could be 100.
Where is Fritz?
This site rocks!
Job well done to all shorts. The market has cracked and the next two years the bear will in charge.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Fritz said he was going to be really busy this week so he wouldn’t be able to post here much, if at all. This site is certainly a wealth of information and I’m learning more each day from reading the posts. Thanks and good luck to everyone!
FAZ broke out of the weekly channel and heading higher…can anyone confirm JPM after breaking down of its head and shoulders and retested…heading south? and target? thx..
thinking bout rolling out of GLD and buying JPM puts
WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?
JUST CAME BACK FROM SCHOOL?
WHAT -3% DOWN DAY?
WHAT?
WHAT?
\WHAT?
WHAT?
WHAT?
WHAT?
WHAT?
WHAT?
THIS HAS TO BE THE BOTTOM.. HAS TO BE… OR ATLEAST CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 4th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
Seriously. These moves are getting way too predictable.
WallStreet knew amateur buyers piled in at 1085 after we bounced off 1070. What does WallStreet do to all those retail accounts? They give them the middle finger. A big fat middle finger. Manipulation to the insane. February will be a relatively bearish months, however understand that WallStreet will push the markets down to kill the buyers. They will pop it up for one day, then bring it back down… This will happen for the next 3-5 weeks (this is not to say that we won’t have rallies, which we will, but they will be short lived.
From March-December 2009, it was fierce rallies, and small pullbacks.
From Jan-Mar 2010 it will be the opposite, fierce DROPS, and small bounces higher. Those who have a longer term perspective will come out ahead, for now, the S&P will be stuck between 1000-1120 !!!
February 4th, 2010 at 6:39 pm
And a final note, some of this move down is $USD related..
Lastly, I am a perma bull. I think 1040 is the lowest we go.. if 1018 breaks (38.2% retracement of the whole move lower) i’d be surprised.
USD/CAD was 1.02 just 2 weeks ago. It’s now 1.07.
I called the exact waves ‘http://social.stocktock.com/photo/future-cycles?context=user’..
let’s see if it holds.. I now think 1030-1060 is the bottom.. stops at 985.
February 4th, 2010 at 11:21 pm
Zee – you still expecting a move down into March ? If we reach 1030 in next 2-3 weeks then what ?
Also, is there any smaller picture you have in mind on when to play intermediate ups / downs on a weekly basis ?
February 4th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
School?
You told us you were a hedge fund operative working out of london/paris
and flying home to montreal ? A $400K portfolio and 100K profit whilst in
middle school mate?
I sold some ofmy FAZ @ 21.35 booked a profit and as usual when it hits there it falls back and if that happens will load back up and wait for the major correction. We haven’t seen these numbers since early November and so I took the profits and will see if we get a bounce tomroorow and if we do then play the game again.
Always remember don’t be greedy a profit is a profit. Good job richard you has SRS on the dime I missed it by one cent. I had a sell @ 8.52 and the best it could do was 8.51. SRS has been a pistol I figured that would be way higher by now but I guess the commercial numbers aren’t being shown at this time but hopefully will start moving up much higher when the rates start turning over and going higher. GL everyone and thank you everyone with your insights.