Here is another S&P count I am watching that has Minute wave 2 tracing a 3-3-5 Flat. This count is interesting because it takes out the wave 4 triangle with the short e-wave that never quite sat well with me. Thoughts?
Wave Tock ~ Tuesday 2/2/10
– February 2, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary
—–TRUST THE CHARTS —– dont take the extra time to read financials that say companies are falling to pieces under the weight of falling says. look at MTH … about to break out on the WEEKLY just like RCII …. really have to stop reading earnings reports and trying to make sense of the market action that follows. wish i never went to business school
what i see here is a 1150 to 1075 = 75 points . retrace half and we get 1113 . makes sense that we could hit 1115 intraday and close below 1113 with a doji candle to confirm this retrace. anything other than that and trouble brews for the bears imo. anything less than this over the next week or so and id say the market is very weak. this move today was very convincing that the market wants to take another stab at higher prices.
Nice count! Thank you for sharing it!
“We are appreciative of the posts and the teaching you do.
Don’t know if anyone caught this, cramer gave a tripple sell-sell-sell on I O C internoil
yesterday right before the stock took a jump 7.5% higher the next morning.
“Investigative and researchers?” When a stock runs it does not ask experts for perm.
I agree that we are in a 2nd wave. What I don’t agree with is the count of the expanded flat. The run up looks more like a three to me… You have the triangle as the second wave, I don’t really like triangle as second waves. It looks like more of 5 3 5 to me, with the triangle being the 3. At the end of the day we all get to same conclusion anyway, which is to short the market at the 50-61.8% retracement level. C=1.618 x A right around the 50% retracement mark, so that is a nice zig zag if they choose to make it that simple and not more complex. Great to have you posting again Craig. Really enjoyed your work many moons ago.
Thanks Cerebro. The count you describe is still my primary count. This is my alternate. Either way, you’re right, we are looking to short at the 50-61.8% retrace. Happy trading!
Well, after being all in 100% short for 3 months I finally took some profit on Friday. No I wasn’t smart enough to wait until Friday just before the bell, which would have been nice, but I sold about 90 minutes before the bell. I was up more than 20% on a couple of my triple leveraged bear etf’s, and about 8-10% on a couple others, and sold a bunch of but not all shares. So now I’m sitting 70% short and 30% in cash. I’m feeling we may see another 1% advance at most before we go back down, and down hard is my feeling. I’m prepared to use have of my available cash to go short again just as soon as I see the S&P break 1095 heading downward.
Any opinions/advice would be welcomed.
I meant to say “Half my available cash” NOT “have my available cash”.
Hey buddy. Scaling into shorts now myself. Haven’t been reading these boards since before the holidays but its nice to see you held your ground. Also nice to see Craig back. I would love to see a weekly EW video perhaps?
If the overall count is right then I think minute wave 3 will surprise both bulls and bears. I am trying to position my portfolio for a long term short position, so I’ll be ready.