3:42pm
Even though the SPY 110.40 level is holding relatively well, in order to jump on the short wagon I’d like to see the daily candle finish at least closer to a DOJI candle and not near its highs. As for now I say, keep those trailing stops long, if you want to get short make sure you got a stop no higher than 110.65.
2:50pm
Well 110.40 so far is the top of the day… lets see if we start breaking some support levels now… keep tracking GS wedge, broke on the 10 minute timescale.
12:38pm
GS 60 minute shows that we are in a wedge formation in the last 2 days of rally. GS is now actually weaker than the overall market, and a break of the support of the wedge will be the first signs to go short. 110 40 on the SPY was my target for this rally, which coincides with 38.2% retrace of the move lower. Here’s the GS 60 min:
11:40am
I believe this might be the place to take your gold longs out..we had a nice 4-5% rally…. 110.40 was my target. You can see the triangle resistance:
1:19am
Futures are down slightly, but i’m not sure if the upside is done yet.. I think there might still be up to another 1% higher from here (over 1-3 days). But any break of 107.30 on the SPY will be very very bearish.
Financials have not made a new high. Lagging.
Ya, but there are bouncing nicely…See Fas
Bought FCX calls for 3.60 on the break
Thar she blows!! Hold on to your seats!! 1200 here we come!! Nuttin stoppin this freight train be long be strong this train to paradise is a chuggin.
BAC still below 15.70.
hit my spx trend line and bounced south.
————— AIG —————– after all this buy the financials this one still trades flat.
————— RF —————– im in this for a reason. not just the chart. however the chart is playing out. broke above $6.50 and now back tests it today. im thinking it has to a fake out break out as this latest report and its inability to pay back TARP going to bite the price.
—————ONB—————- bought more PUTS here at $11.80. two days not it has dipped below the lower support. im thinking 3x lucky. if im wrong i bail.
——— IBOC ———– very suprised it did not pop today. was ex[ecting a move to $21.50. this stock for 8 days now has consolidated in a down channel flag like pattern. if touches and holds $20.50 i make take some profits on half my position and wait for that pop.
————— HOLY HOMEBUILDERS ———– PHM , BZH taking out my R1 no problemo now. pending home sales is up and away they go
we have alot of empty homes here but re-sale homes are moving. people cant afford new homes and are buying distressed properties. anywho. the chart says im wrong if it holds this move. im in these two.
Your RF short is still looking good.
——————- BA ————————- bailing on the SHORT TERM puts. $65 looks like it is in the cards. LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART
SOLD $0.95 each. saw $60 and change or $65 as the next move.
HOLDING THE MAY $52.50 ….. adding if it fails $65 this month.
I wasn´t expecting this rally….so bullishness is still alive..
PPO hourly is very overbought…I expect some drop…sideway moves…..
If this 02 day rally formed any W1…(it depends how it will retrace in a couple of days)…W3 will be huge….
Still on cash…waiting for this drop
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=12673d45-89dc-46cf-a567-6cf76c8af4ee
bought a couple of SPY puts…scalping for tomorrow only…
however…looking for major formations…
SPY only reached 50% retracement….major bearish formation is still in force
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=12673d45-89dc-46cf-a567-6cf76c8af4ee
What are your plans once you’ve determined W3 has started?
I don´t like when I find opposite formations in different time frames…best scenario is a coincidence…
1 – current 02 day rally may formed a minor bullish formation
2 – major bearish formation is still in force because SPY retraced only 50%
Anyway, tomorrow should be red
I am only GUESSING but the following scenario is quite feasable, based only on Fibonacci structures:
- drop at most 50%, 109 area
- raise 161.8%, which will match with a 23.6% retracement from the major formation
- W3 from this major formation will start in full force and will reach November lows
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=4d237653-fa0a-42a6-b706-ab20e0838946
Why I expect the formation just shown?
TA analysis. SPY on daily basis is very oversold and PPO is showing a bullish cross
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8c06a941-dc05-42a8-9706-d72f04a4f687
—————- UUP ————– pull back fills the gap
somethings are pulling me this way. others pulling me the other way.
maybe i should just trade ahead of earnings and forget about trying
to precict market direction. market direction seems to only have a
small influence on the positions im in.
———— DRIV ———— pulls back on an up day to test gap support from back in NOVEMBER at $24.50. this one looks a mess. but so did BZH . so find out in a few days.
have the front month $25 PUT
————– BXP —————- trouble brewing for the shorts? DRAGONGLY DOJI on the daily has been reliable as a bearish pattern. this one got it today. if this confirms with an inside day and a close below $67 tomorrow, the shorts might just be safe from being decapitated.
what about the spy did it end with a doji…not home…so can’t check
NO… closed on its highs basically. looks very bullish imo. but UUP pulled back to close the gap. we can do anything from here. as per always. however id have to say i favour higher prices after todays action.
Yeah, doji on the hourly and 90-min
Guy and gals, check out this blog, he seems to be using EW and Fibs.
http://www.hamiltonewave.com/
He’s one of my clients that used to do institutional trading, now he’s just trading on his own.
good to know that from different heads…we found the same result…
charts at post #9….enjoy!!!!
——— ONB ——– http://social.stocktock.com/photo/onb-feb2010?xg_source=activity
todays close puts ONB below the trendline and more volume came in. very bearish considering the market mood for XLF +1% today. XLF hit resistance.
PUT MORE MONEY AGAINST THIS HOLDING………. should confirm this week
or im going to have to change my mind
10 CONTRACTS ……. MAR12.50PUT ……… AVERAGE STRIKE $1.00
This year is a great year for me. A big thanks to the big boys. Last Friday when market close I said “big boys are done with their selling and are ready to push things up” well, market did excetly as I said. I am geeting ready to start taking my profits off the table and watch for market reversal. Any big sudden drop in all major indexes is a big signal that big boys are short again and then we should see the new low after that. Watch closely and stick with big boys and make money.
So Sam, when do you think the big boys will start shorting again? Friday or early next week?
I am thinking about Friday when job number comes out, or maybe Monday next week. I think tomorrow we can consolidate after these two days rally and then a one more rally on THursday would set everything up for a big reversal on Friday. My sign is a big red candle on the hourly
Since this rally started…Mondays were ALWAYS bullish…
This is the reason why I was sitting on cash since Friday waiting moves…we must had a follow up today…in order to confirm yesterday bullishness…
Now it seems that something is happenning..bull will be happy at most by the beginning of next week….next week OPEX will very bearish
What are is your “big boy” indicator?
What is*