2:04pm
Those that went long my GLD recommendation on thursday-friday, make sure you have a stop above 107.40 now.. locking in at least 1.3% profits. I also believe a good target to get out is around 109.30. Right below the 20 SMA daily. Those that took my recommendation in FCX long Friday, make sure you have a stop right under 70 (locking in at least 4-5% profits) and a great target would be in the mid 70s (72-73).
1:55pm
Inverse H&S formation on the SPY 10 minute will break if we break above 108.90 again…. The target would be 110.40 technically, and that should be in line with my 38.2% about.
1.30 am:
BPI daily is very obvious here, we got a triangle formation. Even though I do have a slight favor to the upside, as I do believe we might see a bounce monday-tuesday.. a break to the downside of the red line would mean you have to cover your longs no matter what. We bought this at 15.15… and are stop is at 14.43. Here’s the daily:
Here’s the SPY 240 minute, which shows that we are on support and are likely to have a bounce today:
I also expect some bounce in gold, and other assets. So an FCX play right now with a stop slightly under it’s 200 SMA daily looks great.
Finally here’s the SPY 60 minute with some fibs, for those who like to look at EWI as we continue this correction. The likely hood is that we retrace to the 38.2% retrace which also will coincides around some blue resistance from earlier.
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From Unersaettlich:
To accompany Idan’s charts showing that stocks are sitting on support levels, with Fibs and other horizontal S&R levels for determining where bounces are likely to start and roll over (possibly constructing right shoulders for complex H&S tops, already occurring in tech sector), here are charts of S&P, Dow, and NASADAQ ($COMPQ). Observe how some levels are especially strong, with multiple Fibs, short-term tops & bottoms, gaps, etc.:
S&P:
Dow:
NASDAQ ($COMPQ):
With $COMPQ at 2160ish shortly after the maket opened, some sort of bounce is in progress.
————– WEEKLY CHARTS MY FOCUS —————-
— UNG — never, in all the rallying of the market, changed the weekly trend. failed the 20week moving average again. unseasonably warm in my region.
— GMXR — natural gas is its main play. HS PATTERN ON WEEKLY and the neckline broke. target from this pattern points to $3.50 . im looking at the MAY 10 PUT. this stock is oversold on the daily. however this market has changed trend and ive found many oversold stocks pushing a FOUR(4) reading on the FULL STO. this one is not oversold on the weekly.
— SD — another small cap energy play that trades options. HS PATTERN ON WEEKLY chart but the neckline has yet to break. have a target of $3.00. im preferring GMXR but maybe someone will advise that this is one is a better short.
NATURAL GAS, with all the bullsih moves in the market over the months has met with selling everytime it hits the 20 WEEK SMA so going long is out of the question imo. the only play i see that plays the percentages is to short companies that are weak and rely on NAT GAS revenues. SD is a 2007 start up as energy prices ramped up. the chart is saying that investors dont believe this company can keep the impressive earnings run.
YOU WILL PROABABLY STILL SEE ALOT OF “BULLISH” calls for this market. however the charts now say SELL THE RIPS. — PALM — has a 20/40sma cross on the WEEKLY. very bearish. look back into the chart and you find this same cross prior to the stock plunging under $1. dont you wish you were a seller there? i have a target of $5 for PALM. look around and you will find many more charts with this same cross or expected cross. it is tougher to find bullish looking charts this weekend.
——- 1078 – 1080 ——- hopefully we have a quick pop to this area.
i wouldnt touch natural gas until it hits 4.50(LT-support). it may take a while for it to do that though.
———— XOM $62 ———– did some charting and i see A B and possibly incomplete C waves down. if this is indeed a corrective move. if C = A then i have a target of $62. im going to be watching this stock most closely on MONDAY and may consider some calls if it finds support at $62. if it fails to head lower ill pass. certainly is an interesting chart.
XOM profit down 23% in Q4.
im going to wait. see if it tests $62. looks like it might be sell before the report and buy the bad report
……… may have missed this trade. find out by the end of the week im thinking.
Report? I’m holding FEB 70 calls…are you referring to the downturn after this “day or two” bounce Rich?
Anyone going long on GS Puts?? It looks like it could breakdown like AAPL did last week.
wait for a day or two of a bounce and then yeah why not.
Thanks, I appreciate it. I bought AAPL 195 puts last week and sold them before the IPAD announcement and then bought them again and sold them for profit, but a little too early, AAPL broke down to almost $190.
GS’s charts looks to presenting a Head and shoulders pattern, I need to do some more research, but it looks like its breaking down like AAPL last week.
All im in now is SPY 108 puts (iv been in them for over a week, buying and selling them) and cash. Lets see if we can test the long term 200 day support area of 1040-1035 sometime in the next two weeks.
A very strong S & R line is at 1030, and it is not yet clear that 1075 and especially 1070 (look at that gap on the 60min) have broken support.
Chat image: http://i48.tinypic.com/2qbgpib.png
Thanks, I appreciate it.
I am busy this week, but here is what I am seeing for this week:
-Trading range should be between 1068 and 1121
-Total volume this week should be lower compared to the previous two weeks, so expect choppy action
-Gains on the upside for the first three days of the week could be limited, setting up a potentially explosive Friday
-Caution, however, that although I expect 1120 to be reached, but just like 1068, it doesn’t have to be hit
Last week when bulls or bullish traders weren’t posting and bearish traders were exhibiting signs of invincibility, you know it’s time to go long for a scalp. I hope both sides can get out unharmed this week.
I won’t have time to be here, so I will not be responding to any questions directed at me. I am planning to get out of my OTM calls as soon as they’re almost ITM. I only want the premiums on them for profit, as they will be 100% guaranteed to be OTM by opex.
Victim #1:
LTD has a nice H&S on the daily and hasn’t declined much since its peak. It also has a high p/e ratio, a lot of debt, and declining profit margins.
Idan, thoughts on QCOM as a long?
Never been a fan of it.. you might get some retrace true but i’m scares on this stock.
Thanks to Fritz, sold my XOM calls, if it goes lower I may buy them back again later.
Still holding X calls up nicely from Friday.
Market seems very vulnerable today.
Mind the Gap, which calls did you have? I currently have the FEB 70…
I bought the Mar 65 calls. As a rule I don’t buy current month options because of the daily decay, that way if I’m wrong and have to hold it overnight it doesn’t decay too much.
Geezus, look at LCAPA. Been on a tear for the past five days!
– NYT — not popping with the markets.
–PALM — BZH — not heading higher either
— SNDK — above $25.50 like i wanted. going to hold these calls.
— RF — is the only posiiton that shows a print above any level
ive calculated. im sticking with everything.
WONT BE POSTING MUCH TODAY.. WONT be doing much.
good luck trading!
———- ONB ———– about to get a 20/40 SMA CROSS on the DAILY chart.
ONB MAR12.50s I HAVE. close below $11.75 is very bearish imo.
——— DST ——– took a couple of $45 PUTS FEB ahead of the earnings call today. the key level to close below for me is $45.35. barely above that now. $1.20 each. see negative divergences in the indicators vs. price action. im mostly using WEEKLY charts now.
———- RCII ———- nice pennant on the WEEKLY and pushing against the upper boundary with decent volume last week. this looks ready to POP imo.
——- TOOK a few $20 front month CALLS ——-
———— TUP ———– reports AH also. this is the last of three im watching for AH reports. TWO BAR BREAK of the 20SMA WEEKLY. this is a signifant event. this moving average stands at $44.60. the price has made no attempt to back test this break. just taking off the oversold condition on the DAILY in a bear flag formation. looks extremely weak. NO POSITION YET
Hi Guys,
Friday´s move showed a “text book” bearish Fibonacci formation. W3 reached exactely 161.8%
It looks like W4 topped, according EW theory (W3 is always the strongest). I expect a drop from current levels. Probably current gains will reverse completely, very short
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=435e9a7d-319b-4087-84c6-dc71007bcaf7
AAPL- Just went negative !!!
Market to follow!
I need to learn to trade options. Have study little bit about and and looking forward to trade. Not sure where should I start with.
I think not trading options I am missing out alot
any suggestion will be a great help
thanks
Since Fritz is busy this week per post #5, I hope it’s okay with him that I repost his information:
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Fritz replied:
January 28th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
VALE – $30 – $31. I’ll sell most at $30, leaving a couple for a possibility that it is actually in a bullish P1.
XOM – $70 – $71. I’ll sell on February 4 no matter what.
CVX – $78 – $79. Same with XOM on exit timing.
AXP – $41, I’ll sell all except FEB 42 CALL, that’s my short protection.
COF – $40
T – $26.6, I’ll sell on February 4 no matter win or loss.
I may pick up some more calls tomorrow if we gap down, but no more trading for me if we gap up.
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CBOE.com will give you a ton of information on options.
Just remember it’s easy to lose money with them so depending on your risk tolerance I would use just a portion of your account on options.
———- DRIV ———– pushing under $25 after many attempts to break the trend.
———- BXP ———– dont want to see this above $66 for more than two days. this is a new position taken on Friday. the daily 20/40SMAs crossed and now prices are moving back up to test the 20SMA. going to add to my position here. if it closes above $66 for more than a few days straight ill re=think this one. ——— ADDING TO $65 PUT ——-
FILLED
———– BZH ——— $3.86 ……………. still yet to hit the lower boundary of the channel this has traded in for some time. awaiting a trade below this boundary at $3.80. at this time im expecting a capitulation type move from the buyers at $4.00. still sitting on my $5 PUTS
Long 1K shares of FAZ at$18.97.
———- SNDK ———– sold HALF my calls. needs to hold $25.50 and this muted response has me concerned. take my profits on some and see if it can hold this level.
———- SRS ———– daily chart looks like a high base formation as the
20/40 SMA about to cross down at $7.75. the 40sma is nice and flat. and
RSI above 50. this is a classic POP set-up.
so long as it does not see a close below $7.75 for consective days
im holding on to these APR8 CALLS.
——– PALM —— looking the most ugly of my positions. the 20/40 SMA cross and the bare minimum being done to keep this afloat. no buyers to push prices higher so far. will need a strong push above $11.75 to reverse this lowering trend.
—— 1088 —— SPX …….. have this written down as my BEAR FEAR number. consecutive closes above 1088 should put the fear in the bears.
right at it with one hour to go. see if this market can close above and get some follow through tomorrow. most of my shorts dont care at this point.
Richard, would appreciate your thoughts on SOA.
looks like a happy camper bu getting near or at the end of a run. $14 has kept a lid on its weekly price. maybe it can bust through this week. 4 days to go.
Thanks Rich!
——– AIG ——— anyone look at this chart lately? is this company not a key building block for any recovery in the financial system? getting a reading of 4 on the WEEKLY FULL STO. with the stock split it has essentially come from $1500 down to $23. this has to be one of the sickest charts out there and they play a key role in global finances.
So gross Richard the chart everyday is grim death… You thinking of a play at all on this thing. I tried to buy some call options a while ago when the stock was messing around 28 30 bucks but to no avail…
im not touching it but it is one to watch . something sick is going to happen and it will affect the market imo. it just keeps going back to the FED for more $$
What is it with all the flares on so many stocks like AMZN? On the 5 min chart there must be at least 8-10 of them shooting higher.
that was it.. the bottom.. mega-long.. stops at 1080.
LONG SPY=
0.5% risk for 3% reward.(target 1110-1120). love them odds.
Are you talking about SPY call options? If so, what month?
——– RF ——– prints $6.66 ……….hmmm. 3% above my level. this bank has yet to pay back tarp and the last earnings call was less than bullish. it is the only position giving me trouble so i’ll allow this DEVIL some leeway.
Market in classic distrib, all traders looking for a bounce to 1100/1120 = not gonna
happen.
MO-MO stocks hitting a wall, check out I O C as a primed short.
i didn’t hold any positions over the weekend. the market is back over a trend line after bouncing off a retrace and depending on tomorrow’s market action we’ll know whether we’re going to remain back in the channel or not. i most likely will not hold any positions today or into tomorrow.
bears need to break the low 1080s, bulls need to keep it propped here into tomorrow.
——- AVY ——— sold my calls
——- TUP ——— shaping up like a bear flag on the daily stopping at the 1/3 reracement of the last move lower. fell $3 . cant hold $1 retrace so far.
++thinking of taking some $40 FEB PUT @ $0.85
According to http://www.mysmartrend.com/ _____ as of today, UUP is still in a down-trend since 3/19/09_______IWM – XLF – XLY – XLP – XLV are all in up-trends______ SSO – XLB – XLE – XLI – XLK – XLU are all in downtrends. Enjoy
For some reason SPY is in an up-trend but, but not SSO ( it must of just shaved the indicator ) SSO was a confirmed downtrend this morning. It shouldn’t take much to change that. I think the mark must be walking on a razor.
Sold my X calls, 22% gain since Friday. Bought ACI calls earlier in the day, target of $23.
Mostly cash now.
that’s the smart play.
Hi Idan, I don’t mean to hijack MtG’spost but I’d like to ask a question. I am new to options and currently hold XOM FEB 70 calls, which are currently up 50% from my buy-in (20% or so post-commissions). I only have 20 contracts so not playing with a large amount here.
Since options can decay quite rapidly, is it recommended to sell as soon a profit is attained? I’ve been following the analysis here predicting a plunge after this bounce so I’d like to sell them back before that drop occurs, if it happens. Thanks for answering this elementary question!
Paul – I would take the profits and run if you are up 50% – I closed mine at 66.13 … and 65.73 this am …
Reload if you get 65.50 – 65.60 – but cash some out …
Paul, just like any other investment, you want to take profits. Again it all depends on your risk tolerance how long you keep an option and risk losing your profit. I personally look at how predictable the market may be at this point. If it seems like there is risk of down side, which I think there is, in my opinion, I take the profits and wait for the next opportunity. You can also take your principal out and let the profits ride if you don’t want to take the whole thing out. Remember that you need to protect your principal to keep trading and have more chances for profitable trades. Try to have a sell price in mind both on the up and down side before you buy any options. They fluctuate in price quite a bit so it’s easy to say it’s going up another 10 cents, so I should hold.
I’m sure Idan has been doing this much longer than I have, just wanted to give you some rational I’ve learned over the years.
IM STILL WAITING FOR $62. i may never get into the trade but that is the price my chart says to watch for. when people bought $65 i said at min it should touch $64 and it hit $64.01. all it has done here is shake off oversold condition.
sometimes you take your 50% profit and you woulda made 300% . othertimes you dont take it and make nothing intsead. nothing wrong with cashing in and watching.
—————- TUP ————- puts filled at re-touch of $43.00 . these earnings plays are pretty small. cant suggest making huge bets based on a few days of price movement ahead of earnings. i have just 3 plays at a total of just over $1,000
———– DST ———– have PUTS into earnings. $45.50 key spot for this one. looks like another fence sitter into the call. always
——— 1088 ——– ONLY SCARE PRINT FOR ME …….. dunno. i would want to see this print and follow through the next day. all i see that is done is make room for another fall.
——– GDP NUMBER —– this number keeps ringing in my ears. if this number was for real would we not see an interest rate adjustment? let’s give our heads a shake and think about it. no wonder the market failed to react to it. what a confusing bunch of bs
—————- TUP ——————– bought $0.85 ………….. sold $0.80
dont like the late day action
————— RCII ———————— keeping CALLS
————— DST ———————— keeping PUTS
RCII ——— see if this pennant on the weekly sends this sucker back up to the 52week high. the action of the past 2 days sure hint it.
same old story. falling sales. falling costs. fancy accounting. raising guidance. beats the street. stock up 3.5% after hours which will push it over that trendline on the weekly if these gains hold. personally i dont like what i see but im just trading a pattern here. quite possible that this gain reverses when the market opens tomorrrow. as a long term investor id sell any pop.
DST ————– down 2% AH
TUP ————— bailed on it at last minute but its FLAT AH
another fun day. kinda.
———- 1088 ———- THAT CLOSE ………….. smells like BEAR FEAR
Idan / Richard – what are your thoughts / targets on JNPR ?
At least for me, it looks bearish. Retraced exactely 50%.
Wait if it holds below 38.2%. PPO hourly shows that it can drop further
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=28609b86-f32f-429b-bd4b-6ee7d4f86ed9
I would have to be longer term bearish on the name, but today’s action was very bullish, so i could see a continuation of the upside, but when the daily candle starts looking more bearish, you can hope for another push lower.