Intraday Commentary ~ 01/28/2010

By
FocalEquity
– January 28, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

2:18pm
GOOG got stopped out at 535.20, with about a 0.6% loss… this is actually my 3rd loss for the year so far… out of about 25 intraday trades and 6 swing trades. I still think it’s a swing trade buy, make sure you got a stop below 528 though.

2:09pm
The VIX will not rally substantially until the $30 mark is broken with a 2 bar clear break on the daily charts… we are still far from that..

1:32pm
With financials in positive territory, and google holding my 535.70 level, i’m going to take a shot at this and buy some of that GOOG right here $535.50 (2%) small position for an intraday or 2 day trade. STOP at 532.50. I also recommend maybe taking a long with a stop at 527.50, for a swing trade.

1:25pm
GLD could see a push higher in the next couple of days to the resistance of the triangle formation (blue line).. it can also break the blue line and start shooting higher. A break of the red line would be very bearish though, and the UUP afterall has an inverse H&S. My guess is a slight push higher for 2-3 days, and then a break down. Either way, i’d be playing it long here  ($106.04) with a stop underneath todays low:

12:55pm
Now that Google has hit close to the 530 mark.. a break of 535.70, would be a bullish sign.

12:36pm
For those that have been shorting EW since it was in the mid 92s-93s well you’ve definitely made a few %, but now we have the H&S that i’ve outlined breaking down.. we do have some minor support at 90.60, but a failure to get above 90.80 would mean a crash scenario for this stock, here’s the daily:

11:48am
I made the charts click able.. sorry for the inconvenience.

11:23am
Todays pull back/fall is a great way to be buying those oversold stocks that were on your radar for a while. What oversold stocks do you guys see? I have BPI on my screen right now, and it looks like it’s worth buying here at 15.15 with a stop under the 61.8% retrace of the last massive rally at $14.52, so lets say a stop of $14.43 to be safe. A possible target is the 38.2% retrace at 17.32, or the 50% at 15.92. However, as always we play the safe way by putting a trailing stop:

11:16am
Google might be a buy if it falls to the 530-532 range. There is no doubt that we are forming a massive H&S formation, but we can see a 3-4% rally in Google (it is way oversold), I would buy it at 528.5-530 to be safe. Here’s a daily:

11:10am
Wow we only rallied to 1100 (although 1103 was hit on the ES futures), and we are hit badly. Today can easily be the day i was talking about a 250 point loss… there is barely any support under us, and the Dollar (UUP) has a very nice inverse H&S on the daily that is breaking out. To me this looks like the dollar could regain at least another full point on the UUP:

8:42am
Jobless claims down to 470,000, which is not at all bullish for the markets. That said I do believe a small upward spike in continuation from yesterday’s momentum is possible. A maximum upward target would be around 1116.6, unless we haven’t stated a correction lower, and we are going to new highs again. Other levels of strong resistance would be 1103-1104, and 1013. I would look to short the broader markets at 1013 with a stop at 1118 if we ever reach it.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.