3:59pm
Today was a good day for the bulls… managing to maintain above 109.60 was important, and it takes away from a fall scenario for now. I got stopped out of RINO at 20.60, meaning I made about 5% on the trade.
3:33pm
AAPL has a very nice H&S formation now on the 1/5/10 minute scales.. You want to see $205.94 break very nicely before you go short though… targets will be in the mid 202s.
3:11pm
Sorry, I just noticed I have sold 60% of my RINO stock at 21.4… and have a stop at 20.6 now for the other 40%. I hope you’re enjoying these day-trades 6% profit 
2:45pm
Former support and now resistance trend line sits at 109.60… if that’s not broken to the upside, i’m not taking any long positions on the broader market. The most ambiguous close is between 109.20-109.60 where we sit right between trend lines that determine possible long and short trades.
2:29pm
If we don’t move up above 109.20 by the end of the day I will be taking an SDS position (5%) hoping for a huge decline tomorrow. If we do move above 109.20, i will just keep playing my BDK short, EW short and RINO long.
2:24pm
AAPL stock shooting up on strong volume as the iPad tablet’s price tag was shown at $500. I’m excited about the product, not necessarily excited to be owning the stock right now. I think it needs to retrace back down a few dozen points and take a breather.
2:17pm
Federal reserve keeps rates unchanges.. massive drop and then a spike back up. The biggest issue right now is whether Bernanke will stay for another term. And even IF he stays, how much support is he getting? Do we have confidence in his decisions at all?
2:03pm
There’s a nice inverse H&S formation on the SPY 1 minute.. if you want to take a quick intraday trade long trade, wait for a break of the trendline at 108.85, but if we breakdown under 108.70, we can see increase selling:
SPY is now trading under the major support lines that were holding this market up for 2-3 days. I think this is a perfect set up for a 200 point down day. BDK is down almost 2 %, EW still needs to break 90.75-90.80 before it will see strong selling pressure. But RINO is up, you should be putting a stop at 20.23, so that I at least lock in some nice profits on the trade no matter what. I would like to see a bounce to a max of $24, will proabably take most off at 21.40 though.
Here’s an SPY 60 minute, so you can see that nothing is holding us up now…
Holy cow!!! Apple just launched.
Sold my T calls – almost at BE ..
Run up to earnings still on-going. I’m not convinced it will sell-off much.
Pump and dump must be complete, and it should not be completed this week.
— SHORT TERM BOTTOM PUT IN ? —– looking more and more like that
—— USB —— violating the FIB $24.75
guess the NEW HOME SALES falling means nothing to the banks.
yeah… we’re above $109.20.. so it’s not worth shorting anymore.. if we break $109.60 i’d consider going long
If it has been put in, I’m not going to complain. I grabbed 20 XOM FEB 70 CALL for $0.14 per contract. If all goes well I’d like to sell them @ $1.5 each.
I jumped in on VALE earlier as well.
If we end up with a sell-off tomorrow I won’t complain either, because right now the risk on the short side is too high for my liking.
Fritz – what VALE calls are you buying and what is your tgt ?
I bought VALE FEB 28 CALL. I’m looking for it to finish above $30 before the plunge, alternatively it may try for a run to $35 by April. This is a company that has sound fundamentals but got caught in the wrong time. It may want to re-test the low of $8.80 set on November 20 2008.
thanks
Wow what a massive spike
hit one of the retraces on that rise. 10205 is the area to watch of DJI
i say 10205 holds on the long term chart.
…or 110.4 for SPY…gap up tomorrow to this resistence?
hard to say…
frankly today changes absolutely nothing. we can pretty much pretend today didn’t happen in terms of fomc news haha.
——- AAPL —– THAT’S what RUMOUR did. $1,000 price tag comes out at $499. this company is going to bury PALM
palm is primarily cell phone based. they’re on verizon now, and going to at&t also. i’m not exactly sure how the ipad is going to cause PALM to do worse. the iPad isn’t even a cell phone.
WOO … youve got me a bit wrong on what im saying. im saying tha AAPL has their game plan in order. they understand the economy. the iphone is priced right and so is this. PALM on the other hand does not have the production capacity or connetion and is a one hit wonder. how can they compete with this GOLIATH.
If this is the start of the institution pump, I’d like it to go as high as DJIA 10650 just to cause the most amount of pain to bears and short sellers who got a bit ahead of themselves. I’d like to see more capitulation on the bearish side and more complacency on the bullish side next week.
I think we go to 1115 on the spy to put in a lower high which will complete the 1-2-3 reversal then drop…
That’s what I’m seeing as the most likely scenario, but I would really like the prices to go back up sharply so not many bears will be left standing…
bull trap. don’t get caught in it. go short or stay on the sidelines.
I’m not worried. I know there has to be a pump next week. I know when the crash will take place so I know I am taking a calculated risk. Besides, my portfolio is positioned on both sides, the only way I get slaughtered is if the market remains sideways.
You’re calling it right so far Fritz. Should have listened to you.
Idan,
RINO up huge. Great call. I was with you on this one. Took half off at 21.38.
Yeah it’s amazing how my long went up so much, and my shorts are plummeting.. BDK and EW.. great shorts.
———— VPRT ——– such a monstrous short postion in this …… feel like something big is going to happen to this equity. but not sure what .
MAR50 PUT $2.35
MAR55 CALL $2.35 …….. took a couple of each.
need a move of 10% for this to pay off decent.
One of the most volatile days in the markets for some time. These violent swings up and down is telling me there is major unrest out there. Got all my positions sold this morning and I will now sit on the sidelines until the dust settles and there is a more direct move either way for the market.
—————— SYMC —————– im keeping all of this position. at one point today considered bailing on half. however, it sold hard at the 50% FIB on the daily that price point was $18.70 …. smacked it and backed right off. they dont report until AH THURS
nice. 10205 on long term charts held so far.
yep…. PLUS PLUS FOR THE BULLS….. SAVED 1087
and… PLUS PLUS FOR THE BEARS…… WE GOING NOWHERE FAST
only one of my stocks is really violating ……. ONB
but ill hold on to see if buyers arrive tomorrow above $12.50
———- RYL ———- making me BONKERS ….. the key price i have is $21.12. trading at $21.11. really need this to sell a bit to feel better about this position. they report AH
above the FIB but below the upper channel line on the daily. any other time this kind of action would have me adding. but these guys are reporting AH and it is strange that the whole sector is going nowhere and this one is doing this ahead of the report. they going to spin some bullshitishness im feeling.
it certainly is not about manipulating price to get cheap puts. SOLD HALF
BUYING SOME CALLS AGAINST THE OTHER HALF
the chart is technically bullish holding the gap and
moving above the falling channel
I’m thinking we close at 1085 on the S&P and below 10,150 on the DJIA. 100% short for the past few months and finally in the green on all positions, but just barely.
———— ZION ———- strange action. light volume. not the reversal candle expected. im going to hold over and see what the rest of today and tomorrow brings. perty wacko.
———- FAZ vs SRS ————- simply JAMAZING
Amazing alright they both tanked bigtime.
I had TNA I was down. I get TZA, I am down. Something tells me I should sit out for a while and rethink things.
lol. market hates on everybody. some days i feel like a contrarian indicator and sitting out is the best way to not lose money haha.
Yea, that’s my next move. I’m not entirely sure what I’m doing. Lost close to 1k today between the two.
the big boys make it easy ….. they all hit the button at the same time
EVERYTHING THEY WERE SHORTING ABOVE 1140 ……. HIT switch position and the puters do the rest… BUY TO COVER…. BUY LONG.
just do our best to compete with it. at least i made something in this down leg. i got hammered in the first part of it.
Got stopped out twice today. Glad that I picked up some DDM before I headed out to pick up my kids. Recovered my losses earlier today. Good chance we bounce from here for a day or two??
I had a stop the first time I went in with TZA, got stopped out. Clever me decides, let’s try again, this time without a stop. Poof!
i feel we will get a large gap tomorrow am. dont know if its up or down
70% chance it will be up.
I am seeing GS & JPM attempting to engineer a squeeze.
I am already in the following longs:
VALE, XOM, T, AXP (non-hedging long), COF
If it’s a gap down, I’ll buy more tomorrow or Friday, focusing on stocks that have RSI(14) < 20.
You can pretty much trust that the TV president will have his rosey tint glasses on and put a wonderful spin on the lies he will talk about and the market will soar. Remember be on the bull train to paradise all is great and there are no problems at all.
—- RYL ——– have 5 $20 PUTS and 3 $22 CALLS …… what a mess
———– ZION ———- sold off during that rally or spurt or whatever you want to call it. so ………. im not too bad off here. im holding on tight to most positions.
—————– SYMC —————– look at todays volume in the
FEB 18 PUT …………… this contract looks desired.
——— ONES IM WATCHING AFTER HOURS ———
REPORTING ::: DRE RYL SYMC
Fritz,
FOMC meeting seems bring good news for near 0 interest rate that pump market. You think market will be up from today instead of next week.
Absolutely!! All is fantastic ride the bull baby!! Make sure you are on the train to paradise after the TV President tells us all his lies of how everything is just so fantastic the market can only do one thing………go up up and away!! Be long and strong it’s the American way. Come on 1200 you can do it !! We have all the big banks blessings buy that stock now!!
I’ve been losing money recently being overly bearish. We all know this is a big lie and they’re fooling all the people. We can either go long and make money as long as this bear rally continues or stay in cash. But going short would just lose our money, which is what they want.
Thursdays have been bearish since March. If we get a down day it should be tomorrow. I’ve been doing more research on the CDS spreads and everytime they hit levels they did last Monday the market hit bottom. If we don’t see a red Thursday I’ll be buying on the long side.
I’d like to see Fritz’s thought on that as well.
mind the gap, thanks.
Normally when Fed keep the low interest rate, market will rally on next day to show appreciation.
Key word: “normally.”
Not feeling too bullish on financials yet as the XLF didn’t manage to close above the $14.38 trend line – hit this 5 day resistance (used to be support) and fell.
Still in a descending channel until it breaks this upper trend line.
same goes for the SPY/SPX.
If we gap up tomorrow, we will at least need to backtest this as support, so that will be where to evaluate going Long…
Mind the gap,
you’re right that most Thursdays since March 2009 had been bearish. That being said, I don’t care if we get a gap down tomorrow. If we gap down, I’ll buy more. If we gap up, I’m already positioned for that. Ideally, I’d like to see the market react negatively to Obama’s speech and carry that into Friday.
Theoretically, the cycle low is Monday February 1, but due to the global nature of marketplace Monday may already be too late to get any decent position filled at low prices if Asian and European markets start gunning for it. So I put January 29 as the low. It doesn’t have to be exact, as I am already seeing positive divergence showing up on the charts, that’s why I wasn’t waiting until Friday to buy VALE and XOM. Tomorrow if we gap down I’ll buy CVX.
I think GS and JPM are already engineering a squeeze. Follow them.
Pete,
News don’t matter. That market always makes up its mind which direction to go before the news releases. This next upswing isn’t about “showing appreciation” for the FED (makes me sick just for typing it), it’s about pumping the market so that institutions can dump to the next fool (unsuspecting retail investors who thought they know which direction the market will go based on fundamentals, earnings, and news).
I have no problem participating with the institutions, GS & JPM during this pump they engineer. I know exactly when to get out and I will sell short with GS and JPM as well, on the same day. The pump before crash always offers good trading opportunities because I know how much I will get and when I should get out.
Fritz,
Thanks for your advice. Follow market about 1.5 year, I alway seem one step later, and does not have forcast capability. But I do observe that big jump after down days and big dump after updays.
You mentioned a couple times of GS and JPM are engineering a squeeze. Do you mean they set up a bull trap like Monday?
You, Woo and Idan, three master traders, all sent bearish signal. Idan, this morning, even warned DOW could drop another 200 in one day.
I am following your previous forcast, plan to enter half into SPY tomorrow, and another half Friday. Waiting for next week, and sell them all.
Richard or Woo, could you give me your opinion about JASO right now?
There were some posts on the board yesterday by others and Anjali,
don’t know if they were authentic or not…