So you can only chart and analyze so much. Ok that’s not true, you can seriously chart for hours without end. However, sometimes it’s not so much about where we are, but how we got here. So if and when P3 hits, I wanted to make sure that the proper people were thanked for the money that the bearish traders will make in this secular bear market. This is still a work in progress and there are many more people and groups that need to be thanked. Feel free to add commentary, to disagree, to be angry, or to add your own thanks. There may be more bullishness to come, or maybe P3 has already started, but let’s try and learn from and enjoy the journey!
when p3 is confirmed this is the thank you speech:
first of all i would like to thank Obama for helping to make all this possible. dare to dream, that all things are possible if you reach for it. if it weren’t for you, i could not short/put the market so confidently. way to put bush behind you and take things into your own hands. there were so many chances to help the economy, but it was you who lead the way without looking back, to making mistakes and bigger mistakes. from giving bailout money only to large companies that never spent it to help any average consumer/worker, to focusing on spending even more money on redoing the healthcare system while the rest of the economy was failing, there was never a doubt in my mind that P3 wasn’t around the corner. Thanks to your great policies, unemployment is near lows, give or take 10%, and all banks and real estate companies have fixed their practices by changing nothing at all, which will help protect us in the future. luckily our tax money will help buy nice things for bank executives, whose bonuses will be taxed for only a small portion in the future starting from…some time in the future.
the FED, oh where would we, bears, be without your initiative to not learn anything from the Japanese economy and bring the rate down to 0. They may be having a horribly slow recovery, but I think we can beat them and make our recovery even slower. let’s at least beat them in this since we couldn’t make a better, more affordable car for the last 20 years.
this reminds me, thank you to the american car companies that made crappy cars for decades before finally deciding to make more dependable cars after people have lost the desire to purchase anything american. way to stick to your guns and make cars that break down and have frequent maintenance problems for so long. you know your company is doing well, when your commercials state that your car is now like a toyota camry. good thing the american GDP and jobs market is highly dependent on the auto industry! This also wouldn’t have been made possible if you weren’t overpaying your union workers and giving them lifetime pensions after 15-20 years of work, while letting people retire in their 30s so that you can pay salary to a non-working person for 40+ more years.
Thank you to the banks and insurance giants who paid record bonuses to your executives. For all the people you fired so that more money could be put into manipulating the market at ridiculous leverages that got us into this mess in the first place. 666 is stamped on the spx in your honor. I think the world was angry at first, but everything is fine now that you have apologized in front of congress. a few million dollars in bonus is only a couple thousand jobs. a smart man takes what he can before it’s gone. you go boy.
Who could forget the housing sector. the bread and butter of the collapse. it is YOU that help those with the american dream! have a history of not paying off credit cards, a bad credit score, no money for a down payment? IT’S OKAY! american real estate companies and banks have your back. this spirit of hope, of trusting in everybody and anybody whether or not they are reliable or not, is what all americans should embrace. let’s not even lock our doors anymore, everyone’s houses are foreclosing anyway. and now that some bailout money has come to help companies in housing, to approve barely any percentage of loans for small businesses and housing for those with even a good credit score is really helping make the world a better place.
and how could i forget, thank you to the american people who buy everything on credit – houses, cars, tuition, food, and clothes. we know it’s everyone else’s fault but our own because the 12 trillion dollar debt is such a huge amount in reference to the 50-300+ trillion dollars of credit going around within the United States. buy now and pay later is only something crooked politicians do with tax refunds and tax dollars. tax refund IOU’s in california?! the nerve! we would never dare to spend money from the future like that! for shame!
together we can and have made a difference. God bless america.
wait…what do you mean when you say the things we do in the US affect the global economy?
haha loved it.
AWESOME!!! Nice job Woo. sad but oh so very very true.
Woo, I know you are a master in EW but I think market is against EW people. For past few months I read some of famous EW blogs and website and all I saw was that they were wrong 80% of the time. They keep saying market is about to fall to P3 and always put a P2 a few point above the high, but the market just kept going higher and the EW people also kept moving P2 higher. Until the recent correction happen and now they say oh we told you. I think there is no P3 in the market and market is getting ready for a huge jump up toward 1200 and beyond because big boys want so. I would like to see when market reach to 1600 and take the previous high then what changes EW people want to make in their waves, I think they can say P3 is above 1600 for the sake of EW rules.
Sam. Not all EW bloggers believe in P3. Please feel free join in the conversation at my blog.
http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/
I personally will not believe in P3 until 985 gets broken. After rallying for 6 months since March, the market put in a 6month bottom on September 2nd. Here is the blog post with a picture of the 6-month cycle: http://social.stocktock.com/photo/cycle-analysis?context=user.
Unfortunately for me if this is really P3, I will miss out on the initial 10% gain, but atleast I wont get screwed like what happened when I shorted through April-July
haha sam, you could be right. i have no qualms with the market going higher. as i’ve been mentioning i’ve been trading the market day to day and week to week, with larger amounts in day trades and if i hold overnight, they are next month smaller positions.
you have to remember that EW isn’t something new. it’s been around quite some time and i used EW to predict the 666 bottom, and i’ve used it to grab a good amount of money on short term tops. EW isn’t the only tool though, and there are points like now where it is hard to tell if it’s a top or not. i would never recommend using EW as the only tool, but i think that it’s a valuable tool. depending on how the counts are, a 1220 may be possibly and it’s also a 61% retrace of the overall drop. i actually do not have an overall count for this upward movement because the only count i could come up with (which was a slight stretch because the 2 wave wasn’t a full 38% retrace) fell apart after a certain point. this has been one of the hardest overall moves to count in my opinion, but as more time passes by, the more clear a count will become and EW will become more valuable at that point.
i am still leaning towards a P3 though not just on charts but also economic fundamentals and just cyclical markets as a whole. there are generally 20 year secular bear market cycles and we are currently in one.
either way, more than anything this was a post for fun and for enjoyment (and a bit of complaining). i feel like atlas shrugged has come to life and stupid people are running and ruining the world. no matter what my rant is, the way i invest money will always be based on the charts in the moment. the better the long term, mid term, short term understanding of the market, the better i believe an individual’s probability of profit is.
Nice, woo, I completely agree..
Wow Woo — you are so prepared
….
I haven’t even gotten started yet !!!
Investors.com
IBD just flagged stock rally as ‘in correction, raise cash now’.
Like they did in Oct 08 and feb 09. Bad news? Cramer said sell, no better bullish
index than he.
———– VERY WELL RANTED ——— ive had my fair share of ranting for the months of this FALLY of a RALLY based on HOPES and IMPOSSIBLE DREAMS… profits without production. Homes used as ATMS. once this mess is over the re-building can begin.
We can all learn how to work hard for our money and pay for what we need with what we earn. Borrowing from demand tomorrow by offering CAR LOANS with payments that are posted by the week instead of by the month this is how you grow DEMAND in North America. Make them payments look cheap instead of expecting your customers to work harder. Yes…………… it has all gone HAYWIRE IN A HURRY!
that said. im working hard tonight. i looked through a ton of bank stocks. i came up with this list which im buying PUTS ON TOMORROW ………. it may be the LAST CHANCE …. if we rally into OPEX so be it. 1120 is only 20 points away and id expect that to be a stopping point. you are NOT CHASING shorting now imo. this market is capable of MOVING 50 POINTS lower every week for weeks on end as the WEEKLY CHART is far from oversold like it was hitting that DEVILISH 666.
HERE IS THE LIST…. ADD THESE TO MY OTHERS
USB — ONB — KEY — BXS
USB $23 MAR
ONB $12.50 MAR
KEY $7.00 MAR
BXS $22.50 MAR
these are much cheaper than those wacky ZION puts i was buying today. the value is much better than the 10 contracts i took in RYL ahead of earnings.
IM ALSO COVERING ALL MY SHORT SHARES TOMORROW …. IMO …. IT’s go time for Bears
im covering all these shorts so i can pump all my $$ into PUTS and have the funds necessary sitting in my account to not get a MARGIN CALL should we push back up to 1120
HERE IS A NICE NEWS PIECE ………. this may help my NYT puts i took against a failure to even touch the 20SMA today. sellers could not wait for prices to hit it.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35084979
what has me so convinced…….. SRS ACTION TODAY
the truncated C wave SRS 15MIN ABC corrective from the move higher
has me feeling very bearish . the action folowed in NYT where
sellers piled over each other before the 20SMA…. these small
nuances differ from the previous moves in the market. if this thing
breaks 1090 now its going to get pretty bad pretty quick imo. it
bounced around 1090 for weeks on end before moving to 1150
if we just push through 1090 after a few days …. YIKERS
And … take a look at the short position in VPRT
i think you’re thinking in the right direction by going right back to the charts. when people start yelling bear bear bear or bull bull bull, it’s time to go and decide what position you want to take based on your own analysis. i always make sure to put together my own thoughts before looking around for the opinions of others, from there sometimes people build you up and sometimes people break you down and you make decisions from there. appreciate all your posts richard.
the charts better speak to us …. nothing else to really go on imo. look at that candle today in ZION … ive seen so many candles like that followed by hearty declines. have to play the percentages. ive been on a bad streak but you have to consider VARIANCE. im ok with it and ill just keep playing the percentages.
hahaah jokes!!!!!!!! history will repeat itself shucks.
care to elaborate?
People on this board have been wrong a few times on the way up. now take a look at the daily chart and compare this pull back to the others we have seen. this one is much different making a 2 candle break of the 20sma on the daily.
this is also the first time the 20sma on the Weekly has been touched since July. at that time the moves in the market were much sharper and it took several weeks for the market to pull back to this moving average. as the rally faltered here now the move took just one week to meet the 20sma Weekly,
those two big red candles on the daily are not what we have seen in the past pull backs and the volume confirms the move. like many i dont want the market to fall apart but i have to take the signal and go with the percentages. if we hold the 20sma on the WEEKLY chart im sure we have a muted bounce. but we are far from oversold on the weekly and that chart has shown negative divergence on almost indicators since November. since November the rally has been fluff imo. the strength and conviction of this move came at prices under 1000 SPX. im thinking that stocks are more fairly valued in the 666 to 1000 range based on this.
im not sold on P3 …. im sold on further downside into that range minimum based on the chart comparing this move to past pull backs.
well said richard. i completely agree. this drop is much more significant than any of the other drops we have seen on this bullish rise from 666. it’s broken significant points on a number of levels, that’s why my thank you letter is a draft and i didn’t declare P3.
i would love to see P3 though haha.
maybe he’s refering to 1929-1930? or a number of other similar charts where the market tanked quite a bit.
all i know …. the smallest position ive taken in a while was a crowded X PUT 60 trade. well … now we know why it was so crowded. looking at charts of X HOG ZRAN and RF after earnings is pretty convincing. then a company like AAPL hits a homer and the reaction is muted. this is much different than early in the rally where anything was good enough. im thinking that was because people truly believed in recovery. now its how many months later and no recovery is in site. only a bump in the road. this reality is hitting everyone except the pump and dumpers of main stream TV
next time i buy PUTS in a crowded trade like X …. encourage me to buy more and hold longer
i need help in hanging on to trades. MAR60 X
bought $2.57 and was happy to get $4.10 …. now $11.40 … woops
I’m not good at EW by any means. My major short sell timing during what EWT called P1 were all start of the third waves. My major short sell timing during what was called P2 were all the end of zigzags. The melt-up of 2009 almost had me convinced that there will be no P3. However, market actions spoke loud and clear recently. If my short sell timing this time also works as they did during P1, then I will probably catch the start of Minute 3 of Minor 1 of P3 (or whatever EWT call it). All of my major short sell dates produced at least 10% decline within 4 weeks, with the exception of October 19 (that one was a brutal tape to trade).
As I said before, I am looking for S&P 920 during the upcoming swift down move, and I am willing to put my money where my mouth is right before the start of the mini crash.
Regardless of how bad the downturn may look in a few weeks time, just keep in mind that we’ll probably have a 10% loss day coming up in late 2010, when short selling is banned outright.
hum… big down day?
TNA/TZA….big ups, big downs…what the heck is going on…
Bear Market
One of the funnier things I’ve read in awhile. BTW, you really forgot to drag Clinton into the thank you speach.
So many people bearish, economy, jobs, production, etc.
I don’t trade stocks as much as I use to, I trade the ES futures contract. Based on my charts, calculations, etc…you might see the real bull come out as soon as tomorrow. The critical levels have been tested and held. The fib time extention indicators tomorrow. So many things happening. The market just went through a 5W D structure and has started to bounce. This will ultimately lead to a test of the 61.8% level before the real pain comes to the market.
Just my 2 cents, but I wouldn’t at all be suprised of a test of 1155 (SPX) or 1147 (ES) in very short order.
sorry about a few missing words…I have to replace the batteries in my keyboard or type slower…
This blog helped me explain this subject to my son. Thanks