12:17pm
**We realize there is a bug with the login and are trying to fix it.** While this is happening, we will be looking at EW for a possible short. Take a look at the daily charts, massive run up that is definitely going to burst soon. My upper target for this run up is 92.50, but might as well take 2-3% of portfolio and start shorting now, will add another 2-3% later:
11:31am
If you haven’t gone short just yet on BDK.. well you can wait a break for the double bottom right at 71.50. Here is a 5 minute!
2:50am
The futures are UP but slightly off their highs at this point. I would like to reiterate my short on BDK.. I do have another 3% I will go short if it moves higher, but most importantly if it busts through 73, I will buy some front month out of the money calls to hedge my position as I add more shorts to it.
Hi Guys,
It looks like that current future bullishness will cause another gap up. I bet that SPY will hold and drop after reaching 115.50 area. This is 161.8% Fibonacci extension. “Usually” once reached this level a reversal will come soon. Also PPO daily/hourly is VERY overbought
Strategy – short if it drops below 127.2% Fibonacci
Enjoy and trade wise!!!
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6e72e712-615d-40eb-a5f4-9edc7926542a
Idan,
Where are you setting your stop on BDK? To me it looks like a rise to 74.24 is possible (to test the swing point from Feb 1st 2008). Any thoughts?
Rajeev
add SDS
MED timber!!!!
CAAS CAGC CYD keeps on giving, CGA getting volume.
stuff/junk from Friday moving again PEIX ANX ALKN
MED complete breakdown on volume. nice
More lod’s on MED. Did anyone join me on this great short?
nope, but I should have, didn’t even look at it. Why is it tanking like this?
I shorted it cause it was an overbloated PIG, fundamentals did not support the valuation. Others are short for other reasons alledgedly including fraud.
I’ve been stalking for quite some time and have mentioned here repeatedly. It was #1 on my short stalk list. Got a short on at last week just below 34, about 33.83 I think. Still holding it> I think it’s good for at least another day or two of tankage.
PEIX nhod. Hot
FED goosing the stock market:?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/more-observations-federal-reserve-buying-stocks
Current reversal is very health and makes me more confident that AA earnings will trigger a short run to 115.50 area (post #1)
We have a minor bullish formation composed by: Friday´s spike and today´s weak reversal
TZA and FAZ positive
Maybe traders are finally starting to get a wiff of that smoke
ASBC trying to raise equity after more write downs with I’m sure more to follow that wagon train.
If XLF changes direction then it should lead the markets down
Here come the commercial traders……this will be shorting heaven for the pros!
Great post Idan.
What do you mean by commercial traders?
More smoke?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1841-Uh,-Whats-Up-With-Effective-Zero-Auctions.html
And a very good quote:
History says that strong upward moves do not die on bad news – they die on good news that “isn’t good enough” when traders find themselves without proper protection for their positions, lulled into complacency and salivating at all the “long side” profits they are sure will be imminently forthcoming.
___TLT___ the iShares 20+ year T-Bond Fund is trading at three year support ( highlighted on the weekly chart ). If a bounce were to develop to the $90 level, it is likely to travel all the way up to $98.
TZA: Not 1, not 2 not 3 but 5 attempts to bust up over 9. PPT beating us down like whack a mole.
Add SCO
Goog is down fro a couple of days. It is good time to long?
——– BDK ———- im short this one with you IDAN. on second look of the WEEKLY CHART i find it shocking that this one is above the 200 WEEK SMA …. JAMAZING. has the recession even started. what the hoodangle is going on with some of these equities.
—— IBOC —- took puts on this FRIDAY FEB20 . .. cha ching so far. good time to get short on this overbought junker. the current daily candle is ENGULFING
—– RSH —– up on these puts too but im not as excited for this as im for IBOC
—– PBI —- im short shares here and glad to be back in the trade. still , after more resarch this weekend i can not find a worse balance sheet.
—- TNS —- this is my new position found over the weekend. sold short this morning.
—- NYT — doubled my position this morning after taking off 2/3 last week . glad i did.
GOOD LUCK TRADING !!
The Chinese government now allows futures, margin trading, and short selling, which could influence U.S.-listed shares.
According to various reports, the Chinese government is lifting its ban on index futures and margin trading, opening new doors for hedging and speculation. Wang Yihuan of China Asset Management told Bloomberg the development is “a milestone in the development of China’s capital markets,” and so far investors have reacted positively to the news.
This means we should be prepare for a market downturn in China soon
SEED on the move again. got .Skimmed .80/share out of it today
I was in it at 12.90 and out at 13.33 In about 100 seconds. It was too fast and too quick and made my monhtly pocket money
—– FELLOW CANUCKS —- i follow this one and got short just a bit ago … WFT.TO. lightly traded but volume has picked up lately.
HW.TO is another dog food eater that is way overbought. im shorting this too.
HW.TO … short at $12.52
Hmmm… Alcoa trading was just halted after hours…. Big beat or big miss?
SPY bids down $0.20/share from open, I think AA has missed.
Excluding charges, Alcoa said it earned 7 cents a share. Analysts had forecast 5 cents a share on sales of $4.9 billion, according to FactSet Research. Sales have now ticked higher for three straight quarters. Alcoa shares closed up 2.5% at $17.45.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alcoa-posts-narrower-loss-improving-sales-2010-01-11?tool=1&dist=bigcharts
Trading resumed…. Down 1.16 as of now
———— MONDAY FLAT TRADE ———— unusual action. im feeling very confident about tomorrow being a down day. we have had many up Mondays followed by flat Tuesday.
AA dealing the market a dose of reality check.
Lets see how they spin this one
SPY down -0.28%
AA down -5.4%
The earnings report from Alcoa, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, traditionally marks the unofficial start of earnings season. With a presence in diverse economies around the world, Alcoa is watched as a global economic bellwether.
Who here thinks we’ll have a bearish earnings quarter?
Me thinks we are going to have a bearish earnings quarter-just too much optimism. I think this will be the opposite of July 2009 earnings where we had a correction before the big rally.
Do you think that we are in the edge of reversal?
Well, some contrary indicators are showing that there is no bear left:
VIX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64005010486
Call/Put ratio
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67453296547
NICE!!!
That means everyone is bullish. You know what’s about to happen?
10%-15% CORRECTION.
The CPCE recorded a reading of 0.49 today. was on October 16th where we topped in the 1100 area if you recall.
Tomorrow i’m buying a ton of Long-term vix calls, and selling short-term calls as a hedge.
* the last time we recorded a reading on the $CPCE (which measures the put/call equity ratios), we topped out (ex. oct 16th, $CPCE was around 0.50).
To see a REALLY overbought chart of market statistics, try the hybrid indicator that combinesthe effect of two of them:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX:$VIX
$BPSPX is a computed “Bullish percentage” measure that tends to peak when $SPX peaks; $VIX tends to bottom when stocks peak. Thus their ratio combines these effects in a fashion that adds emphasis where $BPSPX and $VIX agree, while cancelling out areas of disagreement, producing a more obvious visual result. $CPC:$VIX and $CPCE:$VIX are similar, but “noisier” than $BPSPX:$VIX.
$BPSPX:$VIX is at its highest level since August 2007. Peaks have uniformly led to dips in the S&P, but do not give a good indication of how deep the fall will be. Rather dramatic peaks in $BPSPX:$VIX during recent months led to noticeable dips, but the corrections were about 10% or less.
“Bullish percentage” market stats also have the advantage of being reported for a number of broad indices and even stock sectors:
Broad indices:
$BPCOMPQ Nasdaq Composite
$BPINDU DJIA
$BPNDX Nasdaq 100
$BPNYA NYSE
$BPOEX S&P 100
$BPSPX S&P 500
$BPTSE TSE
Stock sectors:
$BPDISC S&P Consumer Discretionary
$BPENER S&P Energy Sector
$BPFINA S&P Financial Sector
$BPGDM Gold Miners
$BPHEAL S&P Healthcare Sector
$BPINDY S&P Industrials Sector
$BPINFO S&P Technology Sector
$BPMATE S&P Materials Sector
$BPSTAP S&P Consumer Staples Sector
$BPTELE S&P Telecom Services Sector
$BPTRAN DJTA
$BPUTIL S&P Utilities Sector
Thus if trying to figure out whether to ride ERX or jump to ERY, I might incorporate $BPENER:$VIX into the chart, while $BPFINA:$VIX is part of my chart to help with switching between FAS and FAZ.
The main drawback to the $BP… stats is that they are first reported after markets close, but that may stilll be the first indication I get of a reversal in an index or sector.
Since there are very few buyers per the weak volume any strong selling will make the markets fall quickly thus making a reversal possible.
Everbody thinks this market is strong till March-May.
If it rolls now it scews the mass majority because most are not positioned for a drop.
Remeber how bearish everone one was in March…now we have the flip.
If rates go up from the lack of buyers on the treasury side ole Ben and his boys will become PAT Plunge Acceleration Team
No shortage of big movers and traders again today;
8% or more gain;
PEIX MMR EXXI ANX TUES MAPP EPCT ZLC AMAG SEED KAZ PED INHX CIIC JOEZ PAL ENTR BBX DSTI TASR PRXL SCLN CAAC PPHM MR TFX CAAS YTEC BEE VRNM SMI
BB’s and pinkies;
WTKN ANYT ALKN MDCE CHFI ISCR YYIN MNAP SIAF CSKH MFGD BPAC
Tanked on huge volume;
MELI (Idan’s pick-hope he is still short)
MED (my short pick)
NEW YORK (AP) — Video game publisher Electronic Arts Inc. cut its full-year guidance on Monday, as ongoing weakness in its game disc sales didn’t ease up over the holidays as the company had hoped.
The news sent shares down sharply in extended trading.
That’s not good at all.
IMO, Christmas is the time where earnings should be at its highest (kids getting PS3 EA games, etc..). Now that Christmas is over, where’s the demand?
I didn’t read the whole report.
Check out the small buys pushing up spy in the last hour of extended trading:
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?&pageno=2&selected=SPY&mkttype=AFTER
… I’m assuming the SPY has some type of algorithm which follows the S&P 500 Futures no? I don’t think the SPY can be manipulated..
The computers that rig the market are programmed to consider many more factors than we can, and more complex factors related in more complex ways. They make their decisions and do their trading much faster than we do, and with better connections. Rest assured that they manipulate everything all the time.
Here are the complaints of an MM upon discovering that in his case, MM is More and More coming to stand for Mere Mortal, and heaven help us if the black boxes Make a Mess:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rambus-hft-fat-finger-precursor-things-come