4:04pm
I am obviously holding on to my shorts into monday, but this is not the perfect end scenario for the bears. I would have rather seen nice DOJI candles form. I favor BDK’s fall more than the SPY short or SDS long.
2:57pm
I would love to see BDK close below 71.90 dollars with a nice DOJI candle on the daily, with low volume, above the bullinger band… that would be perfect.
2:31pm
I really like AMZN short and let me tell you why. You can see how over the last month or two the up days are very few and huge while the down days take their time and just fall until the updays are completely negated. That to me is a sign of weakness, I think taking a nice hedge AMZN short and long QQQQ might be worth it here..
12:58pm
Current Positions (after adding a chunk of short of BDK at 92.68$): 3% SDS $33.48 and 14% of BDK at $72.15
11:40am
Still seeing that resistance on the SPY.. it looks like a H&S is forming on the 10 minute if you include yesterdays last few hours too. The level you want to look at as potential breakdown is first of all $113.90, a nice break of that would mean we are probably going lower.
Will be gone the first half of the day. But I am already short the SPY using some SDS… and short 6% of BDK.. hoping to add another 6% short BDK at 73 though a break of 71.10 would mean a potential reversal for BDK already.
Add SDS and DXD . Now i’m with idan.
any thoughts about shorting oil at this level???
Check my post yesterday, EOD. It will go much further
Yetserday I told you that we should see a rally on GLD and a correction on XLF. Sure enough it happened exactly as I said. I am very happy about all of my trade that I made for this week. Get ready for next week. For next week I still would like to see a gap up thru 1150 and then a quick reversal which would mark a set up for a significant coorection thereafter. Usually big boys like to start any significant coorection with a huge gap up, that is when they shake out all remaining bears and they sell thier shares to all people who come to the party late. This mornign job nunber ruin the plan that big boys had for a gap up. Monday or Tuesday next week could be a good day for that. Stick with big boys. Good luck
——- BUYERS FALLING OVER EACH OTHER—— im bailing on my RSH PUTS also. this thing is just consolidating on light volume. everyone loves this store too so best to say goodbye to this idea with a small profit.
——— RSH ——— out of the trade before it hammers me
SRS ———— 50% retrace of the pull back is $7.55 — im thinking it gets hammered here. im not playing with that toy anymore today.
What I tell ya? There is the infamous miracle comeback!! Will be green EOD.
yeah, looks like it wants to go higher–options next week could be keeping it afloat?
——— OBAMA ——— so what did he say? hes putting the rest of his life savings
into SPY CALLS MARCH ?
—– BDK —- light volume DOJI … im in the front month $70 SLOTS GAMBLE
S&P hitting the fibs again 1144 is 61.8%. We’ll see Monday. I’m 50% cash and the rest is in puts of SPT, FNX.TO, also short oil through HOD.TO avg buy price of $8.50.
Hey MG
I don’t know if you had time to review that Fibonacci book. Anyway current move is a text book example. Check my response, at post #24
———-SRS———– finished the day above a 50% pull back. maybe a little shake out Monday morning before SRS alas makes a move higher? i dont agree with a CRE collapse this year. but it certainly is in the making. take a look at Palm Springs.
MOVIE THEATER …. closed … NOW A CHURCH
RESTAURANT …. closed … NOW A CHURCH
the TGIF near the main drag is gone. my Sis-In-Law has a Condo there. the main drag has alot of empty space … unlike ever before. more to come. it will take time but SRS will soar one day. anyones guess when.
YEAH s&p at 52-week high!!
nasdaq closes at 52-week high
BULL PARTY!!
Late 30 minute run-up!! yipee
/end sarcasm.
The government is going to engineer a stock market correction to push money out of the stocks and into treasuries. They need more money in treasuries to be able to meet their debt obligations on the national debt, and also to build some ability to support all the States that are going bankrupt. In some States it’s so bad they can’t afford to pay the basics – teachers, police, etc. Without 0% interest rates, the stock market will correct to more reasonable levels.
I’m heavy in front month SPY puts and FAZ calls. Good luck.
How much pain can you bears take, I am not a bull or bear, just a realist. This country and market is a scam, selling pressure is does not exist because our wonderful government now gives free credit to Wall Street sluts…..
Just Buy GS and sleep in peace.
You are right Jim it is the biggest scam going and people keep buying it. As long as the money presses are in full force it is a no win situation unless of course you are on the bull train to paradise.
“I am obviously holding on to my shorts into monday, but this is not the perfect end scenario for the bears”
You been pulling this stunt for 8 some months.
All these blogs function agenda is:
1) Set them up for bearish positions.
2) Then create doubt of taking those bearish positions.
3) Results in forced covering of bearish positions, thus pushing the mrkt to new highs.
I agree, this blog has lost much of its mojo in my opinion. EW is just a theory that is fun to watch but one need to be careful; the methodology is outdated and based on principles that do not exist in today’s marketplace(Thanks Ben). I do appreciate everyone’, a few like Woo had a good take on the market and macro economic situation. How long has Kenny, Daneric and everyone else been calling the top and the end of P2…I believe it has been over 6 months.
The S&P can easily get to 1400 this year on inflation alone……
Jim, it is unfair to pick on this blog in particular.
The majority loses. Thus the majority of blogs and the majority of internet posts will also be wrong.
You know how many insiders sold their stock in June after a 20%+ gain? Had they waited another 6 months they could of enjoyed a 70%+ gain!
The problem with EWT is that it is so hard to figure out what wave we are in!! There’s a difference between being a smart bear (which is SHORTING AFTER A 10% RISE). THIS TECHNIQUE HAS WORKED FOR ME PERFECTLY. Short the S&P after a 10% rise. Also we have never made a lower low except in one occation in the past 6 months. That was the H&S pattern where the s&p bottomed at 869. HUGE FAKEOUT WHICH WAS ENGINEERED by wallstreet. Now that you look back on it, I ask myself why didn’t I go long? CRAMER, CNBC anchors were saying WATCH OUT BELOW !! H&S PATTERN IN EFFECT!! Guess what happens after that? we blast off to the 1000s area (AND DO NOT EVEN FACE resistance on the way up at 950-1000)!!
Agree there are a few such as
woo uners morris fritz
that have had great inputs and charts.
It the ones that actually own/run these blogs
that seem to have agendas to mislead.
And yes daneric & kenny blogs have been calling
top in with their charts for past 6 months.
Charts always show within a day or two top in,
but as you know, for past 6 months not so.
Hey, woo and I are two of the people who “own/run” this blog.
Funny thing is for everybody, look how nicely it would have worked out to be switching between BGU and BGZ based on the default indicators RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) [I prefer the equivalent PPO(12,26,9) because the curves are easier to read]. No need to care what wave is where. It also has been working for FAS & FAZ and probably others. Just switching between FAZ and FAZ based on reversals in FAZ’s EMA(5) of RSI(14) (with a bit of common sense based on PPO(12,26,9) would have turned $100K into about $1.5mil in the past 6 months. Too bad I didn’t do it. I did start trading in similar fashion recently — bought FAZ@17.01 today and watched it go up 1% then down 2%. Then it dropped a few more cents after hours. Such is life in the fast lane. See ya at $24? Yeah, right. +20% to +40% was what happened the LAST few times FAZ bounced up from its lower hourly and daily BB and bottomed its RSI and MACD and a few exotic indicators of my own devising. Sucked me in:
http://i48.tinypic.com/2ldhv8l.png
Buy Sell Sym $100,000 Shares
$46 $55 FAZ $119,515 2173
$38 $75 FAS $235,875 3145
$26 $28 FAZ $254,016 9072
$67 $80 FAS $303,280 3791
$23 $27 FAZ $356,022 13186
$69 $88 FAS $453,992 5159
$20 $24 FAZ $544,776 22699
$71 $91 FAS $698,152 7672
$18 $23 FAZ $892,078 38786
$69 $78 FAS $1,008,384 12928
$19 $21 FAZ $1,114,512 53072
$71 $76 FAS $1,192,972 15697
$20 $21 FAZ $1,252,608 59648
$71 $85 FAS $1,499,570 17642
Where should I set my stop? About $15? Trouble is, when I set a stop, it always gets hit. “Running the stops” is the favorite sport of MMs, most of which are now computers.
It’s kind of hard to set stops when we are close to 52-week highs. I’m in the same boat as you.
Jim as long as we are below 15500 on the Dow, P3 or whatever wave is still in-effect LOL.
yeah, i hear you uszly, but under normal market conditions idan would have been more right and by the way he still makes money, he just has had a harder time since Ben and the boys have been playing with the futures market.
I think its silly to be short the SPY going into mutual fund mondays…
I have been listening to what professional managers are saying about investment themes. There are 3 short term themes that one can talk advantage of:
1. Higher bond prices. There is massive supply of bonds not only from U.S, but also from Japan, UK and Europe. Long dated bonds will continue to rise and the risk of shorting them is fairly low
2. Higher inflation expectations. Steel stocks have jumped 50% to 100% in the last 6 weeks. Copper is near a 52 week high. Other base metals and energy prices (like coal and oil) are also near 52 week highs. This theme is nearing completion and it is not a good time to jump in. Better to wait for a correction
3. Good earnings. This will push the market higher.
All 3 of these themes are bullish themes I expect these short term themes to play out till early February.
In the medium term, there are three new themes expected
1. Higher bond prices results in lower stock market.
2. Lack of new stimulus and starting of monetary tightening. Once oil breaks over $90, there will a lot of discussion in the media of higher inflation and central banks will start taking steps towards monetary tightening.
3. Housing market slows down. Once interest rates rise and the fed stops buying mortgages, this is expected to happen.
All the above 3 themes are bearish themes and I expect it to push the market down sometime in the February to March timeframe.
no way. not going down for a while yet my man.
go long, end of story.
Didn’t someone mention that >75% of mondays are up days since March?
Insider Selling Highlights
Black & Decker Corp. (BDK)
$16.03M, Form4Oracle Insider Sentiment Rating – Strong Sell:
Mangan Michael D, Sr. Vice President sold $3.12M, decreasing his holdings by 43%
Schiech John W, Group Vice President sold $2.70M, decreasing his holdings by 58%
Ireland Les H, Vice President sold $3.26M, decreasing his holdings by 94%
Tyll Michael A, Group Vice President sold $411.62K, decreasing his holdings by 20%
Raskin James R, Vice President sold $156.14K, decreasing his holdings by 12%
Brooks Bruce W, Group Vice President sold $521.50K, decreasing his holdings by 21%
O’Keefe Amy K, Vice President sold $534.77K, decreasing her holdings by 113%
McMullen Christina M, Vice President and Controller sold $62.18K, decreasing her holdings by 3%
Rothleitner Mark M, Vice President and Treasurer sold $1.86M, decreasing his holdings by 91%
Fenton Charles E, SVP and General Counsel sold $3.01M, decreasing his holdings by 71%
Clark Kim B, Director sold $106.22K, decreasing his holdings by 40%
Here is the US government’s job recovery plan. Maybe this wouldn’t be a jobless recovery after all
I can just see these people carry the economy artificially for another 3-4 years until the next down turn comes to wipe out all the wealth out there.
1.2 million jobs being created by Census.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aEws7wrt8FY0&pos=10
Good article on the house of cards market:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/181182-wednesday-outlook-the-fake-rally-follies
Very interesting article. It seems to be a bear biased view and they are the same concerns I’m having. I love it when people say the market is going higher on low volume and it hasn’t come down so the low volume “theory” isn’t working. The manipulators want us to discard the basics of the markets and become complacent, that’s how they get you.
As long as Goldman and US Government are long .. we will see higher prices,,,
FUTURES UP AGAIN!!
GUYS DOW 20,000 HERE WE COME.
dollar hitting another low. commodities aka metals and oil look strong. Might push us up into the 11000 mark by end of week. I’ll be long the miners and mining. For you day/swing traders. Buy bucy on any daily pullback.
The Nas was going vertical when it ended abruptly in 2000
I’m sure the bounce from 29 looked pretty damn convincing to
Greed and risk abound
No one believes a meaningful correction is near
Earnings better be fantastic or else look out
Futures moving up as of 11:35 PM EST +44.00. So far looks like Monday gonna be a roaring day. Don’t forget to jump on the bull train to paradise!
hardest trade day is when the darn market opens way the F up and refuses to make an 0800 retrace. right now that’s how it looks. No economic data due out until Wed wh/ may mean no retrace- unless the $$ does an intraday surge. bucy, fcx, clf.