3:23pm
1142 is being hit on the SPX.. this is a strong fib target.. while I usually like to wait for a break of the wedge (if you’re conservative) , if you wish to take a short, this should be a great place with a stop above 1152. I’ll be adding some SDS here (3% of portfolio).
2:27pm
AMZN is building a nice H&S formation.. a break under 126 would be a great place to short the stock,it should be pretty devastating. Google is down due to its release of the new gphone.
2:23pm
Take a look at the SPY.. not managing to make any headway despite the financials rallying. It’s right now still hugging that wedge support… I’d go short once it breaks:
1:41pm
I’m taking now a bigger chunk of that short on BDK… it was 2% yesterday, and now another 4%. At $73 I’ll add another 6% short and end my shorting hoping for a strong retrace.
11:35am
Well the XLF obviously busted through that area of resistance… and you can see the volume pick up too. That should allow for a strong day. But the SPY is still going to be held by that 1142 fibonacci retracement first and lets not forget the wedge that held early today as well.
1:35am
The market as of right now could be hitting some strong resistance. The H&S formation on the XLF daily or 120 minute is not busted just yet. We could be building a double right shoulder and if that’s the case then now is when resistance should hit. Take a look at the double top on the 120 minute:
What are your thoughts for the next 5 days of trading? Will wee see:
1. 3-4 % Downside
2. 3-4 % Upside
3. Sideways action
Even though I’m not trading the SPY at this point and am looking at really overbought stocks to short, I do prefer the downside on the SPY at this point.
=========== from Unersaettlich:
Updated long-term log scale charts of Dow and S&P showing possibility that Wave[4] might be topping now (which could lead to sidewaysish or downish action in the next few days):
Sorry to forget that I had already done a better wave count a few weeks back, so here’s an updated discussion that seems to make more sense, especially with the features emphasized on the above charts. However, for some time, it probably really doesn’t matter whether it is [3] down or [5] down that we are starting, and similarly, if we turn out to still be heading up, it makes little difference if bears get killed by [2] continuing, or if [4] is what does us in.
Besides Idan’s S&P Fib at 1142, 1144.81 is the 61.8% retracement from 667 back toward 1440 on the S&P, just as 10590 is 61.8% from 6470 back toward 13137 on the Dow. It would make sense for [5] to start now, with [4] being the 61.8% retracement of [3]. This set of fibs has been very influential.
S&P=1440 and Dow=13137 mark the second touch point of the big bear-market log-scale downtrend line (yellow); first touches are ATHs of 1576 and 14198. Craig and I were raving about this line as also resisting further rises, helping roll [4] over into [5].
The fundamentals at work to help our prognosticaions come true will include the diminution of the normal early-Jan inflows to IRAs etc., along with other countries actually debasing their currencies faster than we are. Also, a colder-than-normal winter (you can trust me on this) with forecasts of higher fuel prices could weigh on markets for a while.
HOWEVER, . . . without more confirmation, I am still in cash. Continuation of the wave [4] or [2] bear rally probably depends increasingly on how long Ben & Timmy & co. want to print $$$ to buy equity futures and pull other shenanigans. They already showed a capacity for peeing in their pants to keep warm that long ago exceeded the horizons of my tiny imagination. Therefore, the bulls may keep being right in spite of all the brilliant bearish charts that we generate, and I will, as usual, leave the first few % of the action to others, since my accounts can’t scalp intraday moves.
some stocks will go 3 or 4% up, some will go 3 or 4% down, and some will go sideways.
Thats my prediction and I’m stickin to it. hehe.
I like that.. probably true.
Any one else playing GNVC
The thing is a bullish machine right now
Long @ .87
We are reaching to my target for XLF. I said on Monday that the target is 15~15.20. I like to see a gap up and then quick reversal but looks like big boys are pushing this up slowly and slowly (In my psychology method this is called climbing in a wall of worry).
15.19 just hit. Wow! wondering how much more it can run…
BIG flare down on BAC. Reversal coming…
It’s do or die for FAZ
Double bottom or on to new lows ?
New lows as earnings approach
It’s definetely possible we hit new lows with earnings.
I’m shorting both FAZ + FAS in equal amounts.
I am up about 1.5% on the trade, but that’s because I shorted FAZ at 1070 and shorted FAS at 1100; thus my results are not a result of decay. If I wanted to capture decay, I would of had to short both on the same date..
How are you shorting FAZ and FAS? via puts?
Did they announce oil inventories yet today it was suppose to be at 10:00am
inventories came out yesterday
Inventories were positive, I think +1.3M bls instead of a 1m drawdown as expected.. Had the inverse effect on price
Another 1K shares of SCO at 12.56
just add more here
I just sold half of my calls on XLF, I still hope to see a gap up may be tomorrow or Monday to get rid of my second half position and then go short. we are going to have a very beautiful year guys. Stick with big boys.
Looks like Fazzers are pissed on YHOO.
“had enough. i’m about to have a nervous breakdown fighting this.i can make the money back but if i have long term mental damage its for life. we should ahve crashed long time ago. this could go on for months on end ”
Here’s another message:
WHO DA FCK IS BUYING AFTER 70% RISE 3 minutes ago DAY IN DAY OUT NO ONE AMONG MY FRIENDS ARE BUYING BS….. SOME FORCE IS DEFINATELY THERE WHY WE CAN NOT AUDIT THE FED? WHY THIS ORGANIZATION IS ABOVE LAW?
Fazzers have a right to be pissed because small banks are falling like domino’s and XLF keeps going up because all it is tracking are the big boys who are walking dead on injections from the US tax payers. Unfortunately they are fighting Timmy and the Fed and thats a hard game to win.
We’ll see who gets the last laugh
— WINNERS AND LOSERS — from my picks yesterday
PHM …. covered at a 5% LOSS — covered 1/2 yesterday on sinking feeling it may suprise
TIN … holding at a 5% GAIN. trading below the 20ma. watching closely.
rest of trades are flat.
interesting move in SHLD today. it is on my watch list. it looked like it could pop. ill wait 3 to 5 days for it to get overbought and decide then.
Tell you what, the lending at big banks is way down. The profits that are being made is from huge deposits have have been piled into the big banks in fear of small bank failures, then the banks turn around and either are buying securities or treasuries. Lending is so far off and the losses continue to mount. This is BS with upgrades based on normalized earnings. When are normalized earnings going to appear….3 to 5 years?
I agree lending is down big. They are also holding a lot for forclosed properties too and I am not sure what gives.
My cash offer for a single family home was accepted today. I was 4th in line with a cash offer below asking. They initially accepted a conventional loan offer 15K above asking and it fell through…banks want plain ole cash now.
Just sold my second half of position in XLF calls. Price reached to my target without gap up and so I would expect to see this to start declining pretty soon. I think start loading some short from here is not a bad idea with 30~40% risk, if we get below 15 in next few days then that would be a sign that big boys are done with pushing this up and now they push it down.
Don’t pretend you know what is going on with the banks. Your 15 call is already way off and I felt great pain thinking you knew what you were talking about.
I never said I know what is going on. I have no idea about technical analysis and I always said that. I know most people here know much more than me. I have no time to watch the market like you beacuse I am very busy and this week is the only week I am at home, Since I have no time I made some formula for my self based on big boys acion and that has worked for me all the time. I said XLF is going to 15 ~ 15.20 and sure enough it reached there. I start shorting here. Do I know it is not going to 16.00 or 17.00?? No sure I do not know, but I know big boys eventually go short and push this down, so I will wait with no stop loss until that happen. Simple.
Jeff,
I would only use this board as a lead into what may be good or bad trades. I would recommend doing your own research too and not going purely by what is being said here.
That is true of ANY message board. It can serve as a source for ideas and starting places, but it’s YOUR money that gets gained or lost, so it is YOUR responsibility to do your own research and use it to develop and modify YOUR trading.
Well there is your 15.20 plus target and the financials continue to roar and on a basically flat market. Something not right here. The market should be up way more than it is now. As for FAZ if you are holding it get out now! This looks to be heading down to 15! Look out below!!
BIG flare down on the 1-minute BAC chart.
Looks like the USO is close to a double top @ $42 looks like a good short.I know alot of you use SCO but why not ERY ??? Thanks
Idan did analysis 2 days ago, ERY outperform SCO.
Thanks Pete then why don’t more people play that instead.
I was the one who did that stuff, not that it matters, just that sometimes SCO outperforms and sometimes ERY outperforms, but right now, I am wary of both:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?SCO,ERY,SCO:ERY|B|P20,10,8
Not only do the charts look like perfect examples of the old adage to “never try to catch a falling knife,” we also have bad winter weather with lousy forecasts for what is to come, so oil & gas demand could be high for a while, meaning that you either might want to look at the other side of that sector, or something entirely different. Look at the daily and weekly views in this chart set:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ERY
Wouldn’t you rather own something where the trend looks more like your friend (SCO is no better)? However, with so many trends running into other trends and Fibs (see the reverse situation to ERY above for the Dow and S&P), why not just lurk with cash until something comes along that looks more like a sure thing?
Nobody compels you to trade all the time. It sounds boring, but sometimes the smartest trade is no trade.
will follow idan’s BDK short trade from yesterday with at sell ordre at 72,9 if it gets there, while I’m at ballroom dance whit my wife.
sorry in at 71,9 not 72,9 seems good rigth now
———- X.TO ——— short is working nicely. still a good short.
——– GPX.TO ——— long is working nicely. may pull back a bit in this spot.
———- NYT ———- overbought on the weekly imo. im taking short this one. many stocks overbought on the daily but im feeling the safer play to short is on the weekly charts.
— NYT — sold short $13.83 ———– the $14 area is an area of support back in 08 and may show some resistance.
——— IBOC ———– also running into long time area of resistance at $20. it is showing some weakness prior to hitting this round number. looking at the $20 PUT
I’m short BTU at $50.25 as a swing trade. I think it could go back to the $41.50 area. My stop loss is a 60 min close above $52.35. I know many here are bearish oil and play SCO, but is anyone playing the oil companies rather than the commodity itself? If so -which ones?
Just shorted SHLD via puts
FAZ and SKF hit year lows look out below!!
Something seems amiss with this big push on financials
Somebody’s ramping so they can dump before the shit hits the fan
I agree with basically a flat day and roaring financials and shorts bloodbath I must admit that is the first time I have seen such carnage with such a flat market. If this starts going higher best to seek cover and fast!
Exactly
In ERY 1000 at $9.95..
I am brand new in stock world i have $1000 to invest. What are the best stocks where i can invest and get instant gain.
No such thing as an instant gain IMO.Do you want to invest it or trade it ?
Two totaly different things !!
Sorry to say…but this is any trader nirvana…small cash and huge gains….
reality is much more painfull….
..my advise is study…study…test…test…..then trade…and learn from your losses..
try the link below for a good learning tool…it provide you stock, futures and options..
good luck!!
http://www.cboe.com/tradtool/virtualtrade.aspx
Thank you!
——— TIN ——— im up 7% on this short
…. looks like it is will erase the last 3 days in just one day. the key to my trade picks is more than technical. im looking for high debt/equity ratios based on the rise in interest rates. this rise in rates will hurt these companies. further, im looking for technically overbought equities that sport these ratios. TIN fits the bill.
———- SHLD ——— roars on. im watching this but far from making a trade. i’ll be looking at puts in 5-7 days or 3-5 trading days. look at the weekly and you can see it probably has more upside despite being overbought. gap up overbought stocks usually consolidate for days before making another move. buying PUTS now would lead to decay through this period. THE 200 WEEK MA = 110.69 and sports a flat look. this is a likely target.
——– X.TO ——- failed the 200 DMA and now holding the 20 DMA . im going to take profits on this one. i know less about the financial condition of this company.
FILLED $31.65 +4% … cha ching
—- PBI —- still waiting for this one to rally back up to the 20 DMA around $21.80. but it is soooooooo weak. i dont know a company with more debt to equity than this one. all the research i do and i cant find anything that looks uglier. tempted to just jump back in now but my instincts say to wait.
$22.80 is the 20 DMA …. sorry
GOOG target ???
100
If it doesn’t make its way back 598-600 by the close, could be the 50 day SMA currently at 583.06. I actually hope it reaches that tomorrow or Monday so I can sell some Jan puts
Anybody have any recs against getting SPY Jan 114 Calls – range – 1.10 – 1.12
—- DRE — this hunk of BS looks like a long. im switching teams
in at $12.74 for DRE
RSH —- +15% on my puts. holding.
I think big boys are going to make one more push up on GLD. I played GLD several time before and worked very well for me. Unfortunatly I was on vacation when GLD hit 106 otherwise I would have been a huge buyer. I think one more push up i think could happen tomorrow.
anybody like PG here?
Geez – the real estate sector sure shot back. Hurting my shorts.
or how about TRV? HGX broke out, I would think its adding to the real estate boost. Foot firmly still on SRS’s neck.
———- NYT ——– adding more short.
Just short of IDAN’s 1142 on the S&P!
Topped it. Now where?
The 61.8% Fib retrace of what could be wave [3] (1440 down to 667) is at 1444.81. This is in an S&P chart posted above.
RSI on the FAZ chart stopped just short of 0!
Financials have always lagged the market (specifically NASDAQ) for the past few months, but when NASDAQ seems to be showing weakness for the past two days, financials have been on fire. Does this smell like sector rotation to anyone ?
Just as I assumed, market now soaring higher as all the shorts are takin it like cold roll steel up the arse. XLF will hit 16 before any supposed correction will happen. Have to think when everyone is calling for a correction it not gonna happen. Gigantic manipulated set up.
not all the shorts are taking it up the wazzooo… i put in my time. did not blindly jump into FAZ. im up $$. BEZ TIN MIC
if you take the time you will make the money. if you are quick snap crackle and pop into whatever you feel like you are more likely to enjoy some pain.
BDK is on fire
as posted yesterday. …. wait for the UPPER BB on the weekly for a short.
GS still breaking to new HOD.
Man this market looks like it wants to go to the moon. I’m debating if I should add to my SPY Feb 113 puts here, it looks over extended.
Any thoughts?
I really think $15.40 was the top for XLF. If we get a gap up tomorrow then we’ll sell off through out the day just like Dec/2009 when jobs reports came out way better than expected. So I’ll hold all my puts and add more tomorrow morning depending if it gaps up.
Well of course the jobs are going to be “better than expected” that’s all they ever are. Market will take the “better than expected” and run hard with it. I expect to see a plus day tomorrow big time.
There was also a massive buying candle on FAZ around 3pm. This site aside, it seems as if bullish sentiment is on the high side with everyone expecting 1200 S&P to hit.
Nice call Idan on the 1142! Now they done watch the market dive and EOD red!! Today was most definitely a test for everybody!
well done man~
Closed my spy Jan 112 calls. In at 1.91 and out at 2.55.
Does anybody have any idea about AIG. It seems to me that we may be close to a bounce to the upside after several days being pushed down. Anybody knows what is going on and if buying calls is a good idea?
$28 seems to be support, a break of that would be very bearish.
imo don’t play calls on AIG..
wait for a breakout of $32 to buy and buy if it stays above .
remember aig is still only $1.50 pre-reverse split.
Hi Guys,
Unfortunately I am too busy during trading hours to follow the market.
Anyway, below is my analysis for XLF. The formation “looks” very useful to explain the current financial behaviour:
- The index stopped for a while at 02 main Fibonacci extensions: 161.8% and 261.8%
- Current level (423.6% for W3) is VERY overextended. I have no doubt that it will drop at this level
- PPO hourly is far from overbought
How far it will go? According EW theory, W1=W4. Therefore a shallow drop to 261.8% (15 region) and W5 will complete a double top at 15.75 area
Conclusion
- it may have a shallow drop but it will resume the bullish trend
- it will be very bearish in a couple of days. Probably by the end of next week.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=dbcb75ef-017c-45a2-aca6-b5167819f647
The information below is for bulls only:
Some statistics about the SPY options traded today (Call/Put ratio):
Expiration Trade Interest
February -17.18% -65.34%
March -368.60% -327.14%
For bears only:
Some statistics about the XLF options traded today (Call/Put ratio):
Expiration Trade Interest
February +369.11% +31.37%
March +236.39% -57.16%
Gold (GLD) looks very bullish:
Very conservative trading strategy, based on Fibonacci levels only:
long – beyond 112 area
stop – last lows – below 105 area
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d7177893-6fd9-4789-b674-91fefc61da60
Oil (USO) have 02 formations:
- daily basis is bullish
- hourly basis is bullish but very overextended (already reached 423.6% Fibonacci)
It will drop a little bit (40 area) but the trend will resume much stronger again
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3875aaf8-794e-442e-b80b-f10a8061fcf2
Hey BB, what do you think about Nat Gas? I am looking to take a flyer on NGAS. UNG might be a good play too though.
thanks for the input.
SPY…..YES…IT IS VERY BULLISH…
It may have a shallow drop only because PPO hourly is overbought. The trend will resume strong again
The facts:
- Gold, Oil and Financials are bullish based on major Fibonacci formations
- Short time TA is overbought for most of them
Conclusion
- Side way moves but the trend will resume again (well, did it stop at all?)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3875aaf8-794e-442e-b80b-f10a8061fcf2
SPY will reach at least 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
the markets are so boring at ^vix 19..
i cant imagine trading the markets when the ^vix reaches 10..
Not boring at all for a daytrader. Actually it was another daytraders dream today, lots of action and highly profitabe.
I love girls, but Lululemon clothing is another fad that will go. Bell bottom jeans, CROX, now Spandex pants and Uggs.
LLL.TO has reached a new 52-week high. They speacialize in women’s (and men’s) yoga clothes. Like CROX, the yoga phase is a fad and will soon die out. It’s trading at 75x P/E. Give me a break. Every girl I know has one or a similar type of pant. How much MORE popular can it get? IT CAN’T.
I am going to allocate 3% of my portfolio short, and then add another 5-10% when it breaks $30. No stops.
They have a $2 billion market cap but they earned about $50 million in 2009.
Something is wrong here. If this does not scream to you SHORT, I’m not sure what does.
Markets other fitness apparel besides yoga. Over 100 retail stores in US and Canada + several franchise stores. Only about 13% extended since breakout of 8 week base. LULU on U.S exchange PE 49 ROE 32% +82% Ann EPS growth debt 0 expected to grow EPS by 20 to 78% next 4 quarters. last Q EPS % change 54 last Q sales % change 30 next Q expected EPS% change 45.
Doesn’t scream at me to short, but then it certainly doesn’t appeal to me to long either, unless it would pull back maybe towards 29.on light volume, and provided the market were still healthy.
was meant as reply to Zee. Sorry Zee, I wasn’t trying to shoot down your short prospect, just trying to be helpful. Good luck.
actually that PE i gave is incorrect. It is more like 55. there are some pretty high expectations built into it.