From Idan:
12:30pm
BDK has now entered the overbought list. While it can still move a little higher from here to 69-73 range. I do see it retracing back down to 60 or even 57. I will be taking a small short on it now, and will be adding as we get closer to 73. Here’s a 120min of the BDK chart with fib targets:
10.16am
Here’s a 120 minute SPY chart. Take a look. The Wedge formation the SPY has not broken yet. We have gotten 3 fakeouts to the downside already, in which on the daily chart we did not get a 2 day clear confirmation below it. We are now holding the wedge on intraday charts too.. until it breaks, you can’t go short. 1142 might be the only place to go short, but for now keep it going upwards:
From Unersaettlich:
This S&P chart is related to the one Idan posted yesterday and the ones Craig and I posted before that:
The longer-term picture using the Dow:
The S&P chart is similar. I tried to simplify the chart to emphasize the major influences combined with a plausible wave structure. Seeing the drop from 13137 to 6470 (S&P: 1440 to 667) as Wave [3] puts current action at a 61.8% retracement of [3] (Dow: 11590; S&P 1144), which happens to be colliding with the “Big Bear Market Log Scale Downtrend” that Craig and I and others have been raving about lately. Both daily and weekly indicators are negatively divergent and megaphoning.
After-hours and futures action have so far been fairly tame compared to the big swings during US market hours, with a slight downward drift that will probably be swamped by the moves that occur when US markets open again.
I see the bull trend still in effect because of higher highs, and higher lows.
The tide will not turn until we break a cycle low which has not happened since March. If you look at the S&P you can see heavy buying (support) in the 1070-1085 area, this is the Nov-Dec Cycle Low. Until this is breached, the bull trend will resume.
Yeah, I am still in cash, also waiting for that or something else that looks like confirmation of a bearish turn, but also too wary of the steadily declining momentum to get bullish. Lots of shorter-term plays are available, but geezers in cash accounts are pretty much stuck with riding a position for a few days to a few weeks, so I’ll head back down to the cucumber section of the produce department at the Food King.
Intra day scalp plays are the only thing happening right now pending a bigger move up or down.
huh?…Financials have coiled and sprung…that started on 12/31/09 and is still continuing…
Add some SCO
anyone comments on UYM?
It looks like it’s forming a blow off top.. I’m not sure it can still move to 36.80.. but might want to be thinking of this one on the short side very soon.
F- blow off top? Started a short position. Sold Jan 11 C (.57). Getting ready to go long GILD upon break of 44.9 for a day trade.
Does anyone know what time FOMC Minutes will be announced is it 2:00pm EST ?
Yep, It is 2 PM EST
Thanks Shar !!!!
Morris,
In for another 1000 shares of SCO @13.00. What is your thought?
Idan, Any idea on this upswing on low volume? Any significance?
I mean… it’s been on low volume for a while… I think you just have to wait this out and wait for a breakdown of the wedge that i drew… unitl then this can just continue.
GILD- In at 44.88 (900 shares). Now profitable. Stop at 44.88.
Got stopped out 44.91. Just enough to cover brokerage fees.
Has Wonderful Woo leaft the board ?? Anyone ??
He mentioned he was getting married in February (I think).
VIX in the 18s now
…
very dangerous for the market now!
What? Din’t you hear? CNBC says this is the new bull market! Obama, Bernanke and their cloonies told us that the market is not allow to go down. Dow to 20,0000!
What a joke! If thats the case then we both has to change our name!
Yea remember everything is better than expected! Markets soar there is no bad news at all! Total manipulation!!
Something tells me that the language coming out of the FOMC minutes today is going to move the market IMO..Something has to be done in the bond market the long term yield is going to get too high.
A quick spike up to Idan’s 1142 (or 1150) will be good so that we can move forward
Breath is slightly positive. Advancing volume on the NYSE is just over twice that of the decliners. Conditions are NOT overbought and the initial target is 1145 and should be achieved over the next few sessions.
Al, how on earth can you look at some of the indicators on the charts above and not see that they are both overbought and also negatively diverging? Dips in daily indicators below the values traditionally regarded to indicate overbought conditions are largely due to the negative divergence, indicating a diminishing momentum that usually is bearish, although the it doesn’t say much about the duration or depth of the ensuing drop, as we can see from the two previous instances of negative divergence, which is occurring in both daily and longer-term indicators.
However, 1145 is also about where I think the top might happen (making for a wave [4] that retraces 61.8% of wave [3], so perhaps we are describing the same scenario after all. I certainly won’t take longer-term bearish positions without more confirmation, such as clear topping of the 20-day MA (blue arrows in the above Dow chart), just as the top big yellow downtrend and the pink 61.8% Fib would have to clearly break upside for me to feel bullish.
Agreed
The operative Fib might be 1144+, the S&P 61.8% retrace from 667 back toward 1440, especially if Wave [3] was the move from 1440 down to 667. If the current action is the top of [4], the 61.8% retrace of [3] would make sense as a lid on it, especially since it is intersecting the log scale big bear market downtrend line that Craig and I have been raving about lately. I am about to post a Dow chart of the entire bear market showing a similar scenario.
Thanks for well illustrated DOW chart. Appreciate it. Like you emphasis on “log scale” Very astute.
What do you guys think of AMZn and GOOG right now?
I think both are getting ready to make new highs if the market takes off between now and OPex. Would you recommend a Straddle? I was sure yesterday on a good move by Goog but did not know the direction so did not take the trade.
Thanks
I think GOOG could still go down lower (maybe tomorrow?). Volume today so far is still high. A few long entry positions, I’m looking at right now:
20 day SMA (EMA) – 605.56 (607.2)
Gap support @602.85
Daneric EW has an interesting note on the weekly RSI. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SzQngXJ-2tI/AAAAAAAADMc/rgPDYc_nR9E/s1600-h/Google+weekly.png
Depending on how precise you drew your line, it touched it (and possibly violated it) today.
Thanks a Lot Jdub,
I will make my game plan accordingly. Have a great profitable day.
NP and thanks! Another thing you might want to look into if you’re looking to hold this a tad longer than just a swing trade–GOOG could have a 5-10% “correction” form its high so that the big players have a shot to get into it before it reports earnings on 1/21. Spent about a week between the low-high 590s in Dec. Scaling in would be the best approach.
AMZN has done 1 down, 2 up – so 3 should be down again.
Daneric has a chart on it: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S0PsaK14E9I/AAAAAAAADX0/lvfTuNfyP00/s1600-h/amzn.png
I C A INVERSE HS ON THE 3DAY…
What ticker symbol are you talking about ?
1,000 shares of SCO at $12.50
2000 shares in SCO and SDS
————- up late researching ————- placed some orders and had a few fills
1. RSH PUT FEB20 — $0.60
2. XLY PUT FEB30 — $0.80
3 X.TO short sale $32.99
prior postions LONG GPX.TO SHORT D
———- STOCKS IM WATCHING ———- for short positions
IBOC PBI PHM MTH TIN SHLD BEZ MIC
SRS – Now green !!!
10 minutes and fomc is out. Expecting some movement. Leaning towards the upside and positioned accordingly with Jan spy 113 calls. Gl all
Oops..meant spy 112 calls
———- MIC ———– sold short $13.25
———- BEZ ———- sold short $29.95
———- TIN ———- sold short $22.62
open orders in IBOC and PBI puts. may have missed entry on PBI
———- PHM ———– sold short $10.26
took more of this one. a set-up i like. back test of a clean
break in the moving averages 20/40 on the daily.
PHM … im looking at the weekly chart. smacking right into the MAs
Spy 114 puts
————— WRLD —————— wayyyyyyyyyy overbought on the weekly
grabbing some puts on this lightly traded issue. made a bet against it a few months ago and lost. but this predatory lender could fall quickly.
Hi Richard.
Overextended yes, but payday lender WRLD surprised on earnings forecasts for past 4 quarters by 17% to 65%. Just saying….
———— HOW FAR WE HAVE COME ————- it just does not feal real. to think less than a year ago i was posting a trade in DOW CHEMICAL for $10 CALLS at this site is almost beyond belief. i even remember how hard it was to click buy on that order despite the chart saying it was go time. now look at DOW $31.41 and upgraded to overweight by Barclays. were they around to say BUY at $7.00? simply JAMAZING market action
———— FDO ———- crushed estimates. amazing that a company that improves with a strong USD can do so well in this dollar environment. im going to take my XLY puts off. did people really spend it up this XMAS? are they charging to credit cards and not paying them off…. doesnt matter to the retailers. they get thier money.
———- XLY ———- cancel trade for small loss ———– bought $0.80 sold $0.75. that FULL STO may just embed here and prices go higher.
keeping my RSH PUTS . up a nickle so far. im just thinking they underperform other retailers as per usual.
@ Richard
How are you feeling? Better I hope.
feeling much better but still have some problems . intermittent brain glitches. but not as bad as MS Windows
XLF is up to $15.03
Huge volume in Mar 13 puts…ask @ .18
————- PHM ———– took more short $10.34
20week ma $10.40 40week ma $10.30
the current daily candle if prices maintain this level is bearish.
——– DRE – PUTS——- removing this position. not shaping up the way i want
LOST $145 including commission. this is more gambling. the chart is shaping up to neutral. it looks more likely imo to pop to the upside.
Hi Guys,
I have 02 stocks in my short list…..yes I am still a BEAR
USO – It is far from overbought in every TA indicator. PPO is at extreme levels both daily/hourly. Just reached 423% expansion for W3
I am trying to short it again. My stop orders will be set to last highs, 42.11
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d1c87b99-3863-4b62-9dd5-866d56895884
BAC – Very overbought on hourly basis. It also already reached 423% expansion for W3. It also reached 50% from last highs (18.60)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=71072c29-a9fd-4388-b8f2-36864da04d18
——– PBI ——— getting a bit oversold on the daily . should have a bit of a pop soon. expect this one to fight for the options strike price of $22.50. just above this will be my entry point.
————- BDK ————– as per IDANs post. agree this one is overbaked on the weekly. the upper BB is $72 so that should put a lid on further rise. many stocks like this. bubbly
—————- MIC ————– this one i took today. 7th green week in a row. if you look at the weekly volume it just keeps declining as the price heads higher. this is a good setup imo. the FULL STO and RSI at are at extremes and you have rising prices on declining volume. the likelihood of a corrective move with this pattern is high. of course you can get another move higher. if that is the case i will remove the position. for now it looks to be playing out.
————– PHM ———— not liking the late day bids coming in. removing half the position if it gets a late day pop above $10.35
covered half $10.37 … the bids are coming in now
——– DRE ————– support coming in hard at $12.49 and then quickly gets gobbled up. not sure if this market has enough to push higher. supportive bids are not being jumped by weak buyers. then those bids get pulled.
Lots of topping signals at the end of day today. I think we’ll see some kind of a top if not tomorrow then Friday.
so where do we think oil is headed. thought it might break 82 after the report today. i didn’t hear the report but guess inventory is down. any idea where it is headed or is this a good short entry?
Idan,
Any thoughts on gold and natural gas? Thanks.
Ah gold, well you know it’s gold. Became even much more bullish after Daneric gave it a $400 price target the other day.
Idan – It seems like long GLD and short USO is a good trade – comments?
I think oil has a little more upside IMO
I would say crude looks pretty damn bullish with a close well above 82.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37465699005
you guys gotta look at these Bakken oil shale plays.
CLR, BEXP. KOG, own them all
could actually run to 87.20 before next stop, IMO. After that 96?
Look at today’s trading volume of SCO, 3.74M/ vs 1.43M yesterday. It seems SCO is approaching bottom.
all it means is 3.74m think it is the bottom
Good answer chris.
European retail sales… HORRIBLE. I do not expect to see US recovery pull Europe out of the abyss. Some of the big boys are talking about a significant pop in the morning tomorrow due to jobs # which may be very good due to seasonal adjustment factors that don’t really apply as much this year as retailers did not hire as much as historically for the holiday. Once they kinda give these numbers a 2x over, the pop will likely be faded giving way to the start of the correction.