3:39am (Markets will close early today at 1PM)
The market is very close to breaking out higher.. if it does so.. the next levels will be in the 1125-1128, and 1142 eventually. I want to also point out that 1142-1156 level would correspond very nicely with the rally from the 1929 crash lows to the midway (slightly above 50% retrace) highs, before crashing down for 2.5 years in a row later.
But right now as we stand, the futures are slightly higher.. and we haven’t quite broken out of the channel (though we are very close). I suggest, you stick with the individual names that worked to the upside, like GOOG, RIMM (which might get a bounce as long as it stays above my red line [chart was shown yesterday]) and so on. Here’s a 60 minute SPY:
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays!! (i will be gone until January 5th, but maybe woo can take over!)
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From Unersaettlich:
The weekly view:
Live chart (may require a subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p13198691506&a=172754902&listNum=2
This is not only the 50% retracement of the original entire bear plunge, but also a 161.8% retracement of the last big drop starting a year ago. Both of these Fibs continue to resist. As Idan mentioned, the bear market rally from the initial 1929 plunge was also about 50% before it continued on down to misery. The overall downtrend is still intact and continues to resist, and an upwedge (usually bearish) is converging to a point. Quarterly Bollinger Bands and the quarterly MA are also helpful with weekly charts. Indicators on the weekly chart also exhibit negative divergence; i.e., they slope downward when the chart trends upward. This says that momentum is decreasing, and usually hints at topping action.
Again the short- and long-term views agree. However, just because the previous two holiday rallies dissolved into Jan-Feb plunges, it is not guaranteed to happen again.
HO HO HO to all!
Good morning crew. As you know the jobs data, manipulated though it may be, came in slightly better than expected. Durable goods ex autos stats also slightly better than expected. 1+1= market up. Or up intitially and then so flat you can skate on it. 20 below here and snowed in so I’ll play the market for awhile and see if Santa can be scalped just a little. POT if it has it’s usual fall at the open and TNA.
Ho Ho to all.
HO HO HO from a bit farther south, getting a nice thick ice glaze on top of the snow, with more snow to come, up to a foot of it. THEN comes the below-zero stuff. Oh well. This is usually a heavenly place to live, even in winter, but once every few years, winter can really be miserable. I stocked the fridge, arranged for somebody else to chip & shovel & salt, and have amassed a huge collection of choice DVDs to enjoy with neighbors from multiple leather recliners with the very fancy video and audio of two grotesquely expensive home theater systems acquired with obscene trading profits sheltered in part by various tax dodges from being vaporized (along with a few hundred thousand people) in southwestern Asia because of decades of idiotic actions of politicians of all parties of all countries in response to the perceived wishes of their constituents when they could have just appointed ME to be dictator of the world, which would have made everything everywhere wonderful. For me.
“This is usually a heavenly place to live, even in winter, but once every few years, winter can really be miserable. I stocked the fridge, arranged for somebody else to chip & shovel & salt, and have amassed a huge collection of choice DVDs to enjoy with neighbors from multiple leather recliners with the very fancy video and audio of two grotesquely expensive home theater systems acquired with obscene trading profits sheltered in part by various tax dodges from being vaporized (along with a few hundred thousand people) in southwestern Asia because of decades of idiotic actions of politicians of all parties of all countries in response to the perceived wishes of their constituents when they could have just appointed ME to be dictator of the world, which would have made everything everywhere wonderful.”
Double wow. You may just have gained a place in the Guinness book for the longest sentence. You go Uner!
Flat trade day for me. Rode FCX for a little holiday moolah but that’s about it. See y’all next week!
“You may just have gained a place in the Guinness book for the longest sentence.”
I’m just a patzer when it comes to that, being torn between Franklin, Twain, and Churchill’s magnificently eloquent brevity (which, Shakespeare reminds us, is the soul of wit) vs. what I learned by osmosis along with the German language after being sent under the auspices of the US Army to help deter Russian tourism west of the Elbe. Afterward, when again a college student, I reminded all English teachers who liked short sentences that Thomas Mann (a) won one more Nobel Prize for Literature than they, and (b) used 74 and 64 words in the first two sentences of “Bekentnisse des Hochstaplers Felix Krull” (which Mann worked on for over 40 years, encompassing both World Wars, and never finished, which did not prevent it from being printed and sold in zillions of copies, and made into a movie). For the sake of completeness (no need to thank me), here are those two sentences:
“Indem ich die Feder ergreife, um in völliger Muße und Zurückgezogenheit – gesund übrigens, wenn auch müde, sehr müde (so dass ich wohl nur in kleinen Etappen und unter häufigem Ausruhen werde vorwärts schreiten können), indem ich mich also anschicke, meine Geständnisse in der sauberen und gefälligen Handschrift, die mir eigen ist, dem geduldigen Papier anzuvertrauen, beschleicht mich das flüchtige Bedenken, ob ich diesem geistigen Unternehmen nach Vorbildung und Schule denn auch gewachsen bin. Allein, da alles, was ich mitzuteilen habe, sich meinen eigensten und unmittelbarsten Erfahrungen, Irrtümern und Leidenschaften zusammensetzt und ich also meinen Stoff vollkommen beherrsche, so könnte jener Zweifel höchstens den mir zu Gebote stehenden Takt und Anstand des Ausdrucks betreffen, und in diesen Dingen geben regelmäßige und wohl beendete Studien nach meiner Meinung weit weniger den Ausschlag, als natürliche Begabung und eine gute Kinderstube.”
German is also more agglutinative than English, meaning that it forms some long single words out of what would be multiple words in less agglutinative languages. This means that, if anyone could adequately translate them, these sentences would probably be even wordier in English. One fragmentary translation “. . . meine Geständnisse . . . dem geduldigen Papier anzuvertrauen“ (six words), as „to entrust my confessions (confide my admissions?) to the patient paper” (eight words) illustrates both agglutination and translation agonies in Mann’s wonderful context. The trick, of course, is to write long sentences that the reader does not perceive as long. It looks like I have a way to go yet in that direction.
Advanced trivia questions (no fair looking it up on the net):
The film “Bekenntnisse des Hochstaplers Felix Krull”, Release Date: 25 April 1957, West Germany, Company: Filmaufbau, directed by Kurt Hoffmann, with Liselotte Pulver as Zaza, Ingrid Andree as Zouzou Kuckuck, Susi Nicoletti as Madame Houpflé, starred as Felix Krull a man who spoke many languages. His English was so good that most movie-goers may not have realized that he was German. He was one of the major characters in a US film that may be the most popular of its genre ever made, spawning three sequels and a TV show, along with one of the most durable series of TV commercials. Most of the film’s cast, not that well-known previously, became major stars. The film’s lead star was also multi-lingual and foreign (Swiss), but with a heavier accent. Who played Krull? What was this famous US film? What product used the commercial?
Hints:
This German also starred in a well-known comedy directed by Billy Wilder.
The film and its Swiss star are so well-known and so strongly linked in the public mind that mentioning one almost certainly brings the other to mind.
The film’s music also endured, but mostly in the commercial, rather than as material for popular hits.
It is MMMOOSSSSTTTTTTTTTT beaultiful time of the year…..enjoy your xmas….
I will bother you guys again next week!!!!!
you sent good info. to me yesterday re:SHLD–appreciate. Do you also have a fib. on CHK–it has been doing extremely well, overbought? Thanks.
I could not find anything for CHK. Current scenario doe snot show any valid Fibonacci formation
Add SCO, TZA
I am shorting SPY…reason: 161.8% is very strong. I really doub that it can beyond this
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=189c990a-de40-484f-a005-23a29db300ba
Shorted!!!
Especially when it is up against MULTIPLE 161.8% levels, along with 50% of the whole bear. (see chart above)
yes…it will drop something
But I still think that the whole truth will come only next year. Weak volume sessions like today are targeted for MM manipulation.
Next week probably we will have light volume as well
Only sleeping BEARS are checking this blog during this holiday season
Timmy G said publicly they will do anything they can to keep this market from repeating last March’s lows and I’m sure that means legal and Illegal.
We all know how things end when the Government starts screwing with something but between now and then it’s looks like it’s their game until something blows up they can’t contol.
Watching closely AMZN:
short – below 137.50
stop – current levels 140
target – it may reverse this full recover
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c55b981a-ddbe-4c10-bea6-9029b47ce8ed
Out of the game with ORCL. 15% losses
TBT- is rocking this morning the US goverment raised the debt ceiling again shorting lond treasuries is a great play and provbably will be in the future..
Dave…have a look at tmv
Hey thanks Jon that is right up my alley…Happy holidays …:)
BB, RIMM broke the line
We have to learn from our own pain. Yesterday I shorted ORCL because it was showing a nice bearish Fibonacci formation on daily basis. However PPO was positive. I was just stopped out from this trade with a 15% loss (options, so not a big number)
Lesson learned: I was too greed. Everything should match, Fibonacci and TA, in order to increase our odds
About RIMM:
- Finonacci formation is very nice and bearish on daily basis. It just broke it
- However it is very oversold and hourly PPO started to become bullish.
Conclusion
- From my former painfull experience with ORCL, too risky to short
Take a look at the char.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=cf494fe1-d0be-49e5-bb81-0ae169723ef4
And also, based on the same assumption, I will sell my WFC Puts. Nice profits but PPO hourly is starting to show a bullish cross
In fact I just found that I was stopped out. Anyway 15% profit is offsetting ORCL losses
Merry Christmas to all..have a great time with friends and family
I am shorting AMZN now!!!!
Shorted!!!!
did you get stoped out again?
No…AMZN is showing several minor Fibonacci formations…
Currently it is showing other 161.8% which is usually the summit.
Set a stop order to today highs. But I doubt that this will happen. It will drop at least at 136.50 region
Take a look at this minor bullish formation
Reached 161.8%. Expected retracements are in yellow
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=775b6192-3c36-4a16-97bf-da0d536d7474
OK guys…I am leaving for today…enjoy the holiday!!!!
Xmas gift…check post #4….shorting SPY will provide a nice surprise next Monday….
Loaded with AMZN and SPY for this weekend
Bye
Adjusted my stop order for AMZN to 141 (23.6% Fibonacci). Beyond this I will be completely wrong with this formation.
I don’t want to be out of the game caused by any fake push
Gl to you BB…I have been playing amzn to the upside lately and it has been working out. TA aside…strong holiday season along with snow on the east will propel this higher-pure sentiment play
I am trying ORCL again, based on the same formation that stopped me out. Same criteria, holding at 161.8% W3 extension
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=7f25c01a-8b39-4f6a-bc9a-a69d820ed435
In the end, I am shorting 03 positions: ORCL, AMZN and SPY
All of them have the same behaviour:
- PPO hourly is very overbought
- All are showing minor Fibonacci formations that topped at 161.8%
I will see you next Monday:
- Merry Christmas
- feliz natividad
- feliz natal
Thanks to you BB and all the others who are contributing to this great site.
Wish you all Merry Christmas
I think next week will be just like this week flat to up with low volume then after the 1st of the year i look for big moves..
How higher MM will push it?
My take is:
- Shallow drop next Monday, at most reversing current gains (-1%)
- PPO hourly will show bullishness again and we will start a new cycle. SPY will finish with another higher high
- Fund managers will be happy because they were able to show their “proficiency” to their clients
- Everybody will be happy and no bear will be left this whole 2009
It the most beautiful time of the year!!!!
Season’s Greetings to all Stocktocker’s…i don’t post much due to work schedule but still follow the daily comments and blogs and enjoy learning from all you guys both Bulls and Bears…many thanks to all who run the ST website and the traders who share ideas…
Warmest regards this Holiday and blessings of good health and prosperity to us all…
TNbear
(Memphis, TN.)
ps: Christmas at Elvis’s Graceland is Rockin’ and Rollin’ this Holiday!