2:13pm
If the market stays up and manages to break the 112-112.30 SPY levels.. RIMM could benefit a lot, as it could move much higher upon a break of 67.70.. I think RIMM is an undervalued stock too, so it just sounds appetizing for a long:
Here’s the 60 min RIMM:
12:26pm
Xlf 120 minute.. showing how the neckline held very nicely.. which is why we went long FAZ, with a stop right above the XLF neckline… with a stop in positive territory, you can just play the waiting game-stress free:
12:18pm
Those people who bought FAZ with me yesterday, make sure your stop is in positive territory now..
11:17am
we are undearneath the channel resistance and therefore i favor shorting with a stop right above at 112 .35 if your’e a risk taker, or 112.00 if you’re okay with getting stopped lossed.
3:05am
Futures are now about 0.3-0.4% up… if we can sustain this and open above my channel resistance on the SPY.. I will be taken a long with a stop below the resistance. If we open below and fail to break it to the upside, I will go ahead and short the SPY hoping for a push down to the bottom of the channel (with tight stops above resistance):
Here’s a 60 min:
1:33am
GOOG 60 minute.. still showing the same trend.. it’s still in its channel despite being over 600 now… until it’s broken.. no reason to stay long, when it breaks, going short makes more sense:
Maybe we get more of the pump fest all week long. Here is the headline for the delayed release of the mass layoffs report:
Mass layoffs hit 16-month low in November
The Labor Department said the number of mass layoff actions — defined as job cuts involving at least 50 people from a single employer — dropped by 330 to 1,797 from October, the lowest since July 2008. A total of 165,346 workers affected, also the fewest number since July 2008.
Slew of data at 8:30 ET. Personal income, personal spending, PCE prices. Michigan consumer sentiment and new home sales around 10 ET and crude inventories at 10:30.
Simple facts for a positive market
Weak dollar = market goes up because of strong multinational earnigs and flight to hard assets
Strong dollar = market goes up becasue sign of strength of economy
Raise GDP estimates – Market goes up on expectations of improving economy
Lower reported GDP/miss estimates = higher market because it will be better in the yet to complete unreported quarter becasue of holding on to INVENTORY
Government controlled healthcare = Higher market because its somehow good for private healthcare firms (Oh yeah, if that’s true we are surely going to REDUCE costs via GVT healthcare!)
Oil goes up= market goes up becasue “big Oil” will do well.
Oil goes down = market goes up because helps the cost structuire of all businesses.
government pumps trillions of “printed” money into economy stock market goes up as too many $ chase too many assests.
Government pulls back on their capital infusions = market goes up because it means “recession is over”
Gold goes up = market goes up because it is good for miners
Gold goes down = market goes up because its a sign that fear has subsided.
Great analysis. You can also add in:
Lower unemployment filings = Market goes up because less jobs are being loss, sign of improving economy.
Higher unemployment filings = Market goes up because more Gov. stimulus must be coming soon to initiate job creation.
One more thing you forgot. Market goes up because of all the better than expected analysis of any financial data pertaining to anything about the economy.
haha
Holding my GOOG 610 & 660 calls to first target of 602.45 with a new stop
If low of 602.45 is put in, next target is 608,-609 then 616. Will move stops up accordingly.
I am looking at IYR down Pre-Market and SRS down Pre-Market. ????
“ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (the Fund) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice the inverse daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index (the Index)”
Am I missing something??
Hmmm Interesting. DRV/DRN IYR too.
Everbody is scared to death to buy this because all it has done is go down for 9 months.
Sound like its time for reversal?
DJUSRE is up, not surew why IYR down
Hi Guys,
I am shorting, ORCL now. Reasons:
- it was a company that I worked in the past….LOL…..:-)
- EW formation reached 161.8% (W3). Most of the case stocks drops after those levels
- PPO daily is oversold (hourly is still fine)
- SPY will drop today
I expect a shallow drop to 127.2% area at least (boundary of the gap)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=eecc5c03-e71e-41d9-9261-c4bd5facaa1b
About SPY…It should fulfill the minor EW structure and drop
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=cdd84e36-c2db-4fd7-a943-f19d31fbb8ab
I am shorting it, as soon as it reaches 111.30 area
Why would you short SPY at 111.30 and not at 112 given we have never sustained 112 into the close?
It already invalidated the pattern. Just shorted it
Mainly to make sure….LOL
111.50 is next support, and then 111.30.
Bought some January PUTs
Bought SCO @15.25. GL.
Add more SCO @14.87. GL.
I’m out until Monday. I have a buy order in for 1000 SCO @ 15.20. Happy Holidays!
Sold AAPL calls bought yesterday, small amount, 10% gain. Holding WFC Feb 27 puts.
Enjoy the party!!!
While it lasts…lol…today will end in red. Buying SPY puts.
agree..in fact SPY just invalidated that minor EW structure
Hey…are you enjoying WFC? We will have some nice profits today!!!!
The options don’t really move all that much. For a $0.30/share move it’s moved $0.10-0.15/ contract. Any profit is fine by me. I’ll keep it until the new year at least. I bought Feb 27 puts.
For those heroes that believe that this Xmas rally will go further: GS
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b5aa6c4e-80c5-4413-855b-e50aa9695cde
bought 1000 TZA @ 9.68
Okeedoke there’s the spin for the red. Housing starts horendous making a play on FAZ 4000@ 19.26 long!
Another one in my short list. Anyway I am already in NASDAQ game with Oracle
CISCO (CSCO):
- retraced 61.8%
- PPO hourly is very overbought
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=50640f1f-38c6-4082-9bfe-ba18d54d9c9f
Bearish evening star candle on 30 mins SPY, waiting for confirmation.
No rebound for the US $ even after the bearish news of the New Home sales and below expectations Michigan Sentiment.
Plus the IYR/SRS negative mystery continues.
SPG up is why LewDog. Simon Properties has alot to to with the commercial real estate pertaining to SRS. Actually lucky it is not down more.
Just bought some SPY PUTs
Which month/strike? Do you see this as a short term downer or could it continue for a few days?
Unbelievable but:
- McClellan and Zweig are bullish
- PPO daily is bullish as well
I bought Dec ones. Very short term
But, 02 charts that I usually check:
VIX – Usually it means a reversal when VIX reaches any extremes in envelope.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64005010486
CPC ratio – it is extreme bullish
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$CPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67453296547
I see what you mean, thank you for the charts.
GOOG – continue moving stops up
Idan’s chart is incredibly helpful – Thank you, Idan.
BB, short RIMM yet?
I think RIMM is a good short candidate with target of gap support around $64. Negative divergence on the daily but the 30 mins can still see higher prices.
you can, but please play the game correctly. If it starts to rise get out. For me, it is still holding for a while
I would prefer Oracle (post #5) because it is holding where it reached after earnings
A good game:
- short it as soon as it drops further that today’s low (66.7)
- get out it it reaches the 68 area again
This market doesn’t want to move here. I think it will be hard for it to make a move either way, with holidays on the way.
sold some uco (10.75 basis), will keep some until next week.
Same here….missed the .10 ride higher, but overall happy with the trade…..looking at SCO now.
green is good.
SRS must think it’s in the NFL
It can’t score green even when the markets and IYR are in the red zone.
Yes but the bears have the prime opportunity to drive the market down with the horendous housing news but are not doing it. Remember bad news is spun as good and so this strong resiliency of the market is tough to beat. As a result I am moving my stops on FAZ from 19.20 to 19.40 to insure a profit. However I do feel FAZ can hit the 19.60-19.70 range.
what is the “horendous” housing news? new home sales dropped? new homes cant compete with the rock bottom used home market. The cost of construction in the hardest hit area area are way more than the used home market.
$110/sq ft used home…new home $140/sq feet minimum..
I have bid on 3 REO homes all CASH offer and all of them got overbid. My offers were $5K more than the asking price…figure that out
The horendous housing news is the consensus was 440K and the actual as of today was 355K. Of course new homes can’t compete with the rock bottom prices of existing homes! Trust me I know all to well. I have been a custom home builder for 33 yrs. Remember the backbone of this economy is housing and until the banks let the credit out and the housing comes back the recovery is still far away. Credit will not be let out till jobs come back and interest rates go back up and that is the real key issue of this economy.
Hey Burned Bear, your stuff with the $VIX yesterday can be taken a step further by combining $VIX with another market statistic, the “Bullish Percentage,” which is reported (sorry, only at EOD) for a number of different indices and sectors ($BPSPX. $BPINDU, $BPCOMPQ, $BPENER, $BPFINA, etc.). The BP stats also tend to reach extremes in envelopes (I use Bollinger Bands, but yours are fine) as markets start to reverse . . . AND they do it OPPOSITE TO $VIX!
This lets us combine them with $VIX into hybrid indicators using stockcharts.com (even the free version, folks) as, for example, $BPSPX:$VIX, which is the “symbol” used to chart $BPSPX divided by $VIX. The resulting chart is a hybrid indicator that is reinforced when $BPSPX and $VIX agree, while differences, possibly due to noise, tend to cancel out.
Here are free charts of a couple of examples (remember, the charts involving a BP statistic end with yesterday’s data, so today’s turn is not yet shown, but these charts are supposed to be for SWAGs, a.k.a. “forecasts”, anyway):
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$VIX,$BPSPX,$BPSPX:$VIX,$SPX,BGU,BGZ
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$VIX,$BPFINA,$BPFINA:$VIX,$DJUSFN,FAS,FAZ
Here’s a longer-term combined view, showing more clearly how the hybrid nature of the indicator $BPSPX:$VIX exhibits clearer extremes than either $BPSPX or $VIX alone, and it does reinforce your contention that a market reversal might well be upon us. I also included the action starting at Thanksgiving last year to show that this year’s supposed holiday rally has been rather flat by comparison, which should not be comforting to the bulls:
Static chart image:
http://i48.tinypic.com/ajthmu.gif
Live chart (requires subscription):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83178241328&listNum=2&a=186634252
Good Uner….tks very much for the hints…
So I guess that we are in the same boat. This crazy bullishiness started to show some red flags. Enjoy the ride!!!
GNVC starting to break out from a long base on good volume the last two days.
bought 1000 more SCO @ 14.80 (and now I’m really done)
I am with you, bought 1000. Sold my BRCD, BP and INTC today all for a nice pop.
Do not want to get greedy. Mostly in cash until next year.
Ok….now I get why the ticker was going up when I was placing my order….MORRIS!!:)
Morris, the crudesader. Man you got balls.
GLTU
bought 1000 more TZA @9.76
I do think that is too early to show any valid Fibonacci formation, but anyway the following one looks good and it is still in force:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=03537b2f-124b-4884-9d31-5cdb4bf0b322
It is a SPY studu. Very short term indeed
It looks like that the pattern is almost in the edge. Probably it will be invalidated soon
It was completely invalidated!!!!
Ok my stop loss just kicked in on FAZ. A profit is a profit.
SPG 81.03+1.18 SRS tanking 7.33. Like I said earlier was surprised SRS wasn’t down more.
Just set an ordet to buy CSCO PUTs, if the stock drops further than 23.55
My current portfolio is completely bearish:
- WFC PUTs- nice profits. I will hold it for next week, I believe
- SPY PUTs- very small losses
- ORCL PUTs – it is refusing to drop. Anyway I will hold it until last high, 24.75
Oracle stopped exactly at 161.8% retracement
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=017e9c38-1d8d-451d-9be5-9d3516dedeb4
I will load a couple of PUTs again
Set a trigger to buy more PUTs if it reaches this level again
Chart:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6f1bc213-ae29-420e-a4bc-5c69316d1756
BB – clearly have wave 5 in play on WFC …. you mentioned a tgt of 26.5 …. is that what you are still looking at or lower ?
In terms of subwaves we should be in a wave i of wave 5 …. is that what you see ?
yes, 26.5 area is the 1st Fibonacci target. But it can drop much further. However at this level I will keep my stop orders very tight
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=bd851a2f-a1e5-4abe-8d44-f76c0d46974d
….I also agree about the minor subwaves…it is the 1st leg down
bt 1000 faz 19.46
Idan, are you tracking SHLD? Looks prime for short.
For me it is quite bullish. Anyway It looks like that it is reaching the 1st Fibonacci extension. In English, a key area for reversal
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1288ee43-8e6b-4898-b1df-d1367cff7056
It’s not on my short list… i t can still go to 90 before it shoots down.
Is anyone else thinking that s&p is about to launch?
Either that or break down.
Ha..agreed. All cash at the moment. Trying to pick a side. May be a smarter play for me just to watch for a bit. Good luck
Are we going to rise even further?…unbeliavable……
ORCL sure looks prime for short but not cooperating. Watching it.
Set my stop to last highs, 24.74
5 years ago I bought a router for $50. today I sold the router on e-bay for $60 + shipping.the market is the same . Unbeliavable
SPG 81.92+2.07 SRS major tank 7.22 new year low! Look out below!
Just in case, I want to hold my 10% gains with WFC. Set a stop limit at 26.90 area.
This market burned me a lot in the past. I don’t want any surprises any more. I can play with this stock again in the future
pick up 3000 shares TZA @9.54
I think this market will rally into next week just like this past week whether the news is good or bad it will not matter.There is not enough volume to get a huge down trend.I think anyone playing 3X bear ETF and i love them should wait because i do think you will get better entry late next week that is what i am waiting for .I do expect a big selloff sometime in January all we will need is just one catalyst like poor retail sales..Happy holidays all
PS: the only position i will hold into the new year is short 20 year treasuries TBT..
bought some FAZ @19.36
Very interesting, all big banks in a tandem are in red: WFC, BAC, C, GS and JPM. Obviously XLF as well
cause the big boys are letting the little guys play to the short side
watchout when they come back on Monday
Oracle just topped last highs. I adjusted my stops to a buffer (-15% loss. Currently at -10%). I don’t want to be out of the game by any spike
Stopped out from WFC. In the end I got 10% profits. Not bad…the same thing 02 days in a row
LOL…for some reason the limit order was not fulfilled….still in the game
Oracle dropped a little bit after reaching the last highs. Let’s see what will happen in the future.
Holding some SPY PUTs
For those that are watching ORCL, a Fibonacci/EW structure that “might” explain today’s action
It is bullish and it looks like that it finished W3 (161.8% Fibonacci). Should have a shallow drop…I hope..LOL
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f98a6f43-b429-4328-8e7a-aaee59b9dc3f
Add 1000 UCO
The reality is harsh…..this bullishness is still in force.
Some facts:
- PPO hourly is very overbought. However last time SPY was keeping rising for about 04 days in this way
- PPO daily is bullish
- McClellan & Zweig are bullish
- VIX is very oversold but it can hold in this position for more da
Fibonacci for me is valid because you have some parameters to trade. If one formation fails, it is quickly replaced by a stronger one
My conclusion is: current levels are very bullish. I will sell my SPY PUTs right now to break even. I don’t want to hold them for tomorrow. No clue on what will happen
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3ade8934-a9c3-4cc3-9b44-12ea31799def
In the end nothing changed, for me.
- SPY did not drop enough to keep me even
- WFC is holding at current levels. Nice profits
- ORCL is holding as well
In the end I am completely even, the profits are almost offsetting the losses. Let’s see how this game will end
SRS finally showing a bounce off it’s lows
Yup notice how SPG is droped. It is 81.33 right now.
qid is a mine of gold at this level. I don’t care if market is up or down tomorrow monday this market will drop .
Missed my spy calls by a penny. Oh well may be for the best with job numbers out tomorrow. What time does the market close tomorrow?
1PM EST
From zero hedge:
Anyone looking at their 401(k) portfolio performance since the end of August will undoubtedly be very happy (and extremely surprised), as the market has climbed steadily higher despite i) increasingly declining trading volume and ii) consistent and material withdrawals from domestic equity mutual funds. Furthermore, if anyone was merely looking at the trading action in regular hours, one would think there was absolutely no profit made since early September. The reason for that: all the upside since September 14th has come exclusively from after hours action. The chart below demonstrates the relative performance of regular hour trading in the SPY as well as that in the extended session. The notable observations: gaps, gaps, gaps. Every single day, minimal volume pushes the futures index higher. Good news, bad news, it don’t matter to the Goldman S&P and Russell 1000 futures desk: they just lift every micro offer, giving the impression that the market is unstoppable, often leapfrogging each other as the latest viagra’ed GDP or unemployment rumor is spread. Come morning, it is time for the HFT brigade to come in and scalp their trillions of pennies while leaving the market unchanged, then at 4pm handing it off again to leveraged futures manipulation and dark pools. In a nutshell, this is the secret of the past quarter’s phenomenal market performance.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/three-month-flat-market-yesif-you-exclude-constant-after-hours-manipulation
RIMM might drop hard tomorrow. There was a major outage with his system. 2nd in a row this week
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/topnews;_ylt=AuUQRm.jy3pv0.fXy2Gv1my7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1MjBjbTRlBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNibGFja2JlcnJ5dXM-/*http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/091223/us_tec_research_in_motion_blackberry_outage.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Be carefull with RIMM. something was holding it down for the last couple of days. It may explode to the upside with the latest earning release-It has been dormant so far.
Outage news is negative publicity so it may suck in the shorts.
I am not trading it yet. It is only at my watch list
Been gone for a while. I see 36% of the posts today were from burned bear. I see the site hasn’t changed much.
Nice to see you 3min,,,
When are you getting back in the market?
I am not sure where Fritz is nowadays? what he had some long term shorts before he left.
I have 1.5M in the market. Never left.
The market should sell off for the first few days of the new year….so sell into strength starting Monday.