Intraday Commentary ~ 12/22/2009

By
FocalEquity
– December 22, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:12pm
For the people who went short at 111.80-112… you should already be putting a stop in positive territory… what bears really want is a break fo 111.50-111.55, that would be a signal of a stronger move lower.

1:20pm
Did anybody go long on my AAPL trade… i said, when one of those blue lines breaks, follow that trend… and you will make a nice 2%!… well we are now at the green resistance.. this is the place where we can turn over, but if we do break it.. there is a lot more moving up from here. AAPL 120min:
AAPL 120min

1:17pm
XLF 120 minute still trading right below the ascending neckline.. its worth a short with a stop right above it… get into some of that FAZ (small positions):
xlf120min

1:16pm
Here’s a 60 minute on the SPY.. if i had to short.. it would be now… if i had to go long.. i’d wait for a break of my blue line:
spy60min

1:15pm
We finally have a bottoming candle on gold here… so lets see if that holds…

We have been looking at gold for quite a while, saying that in the short term the exponential move was going to reverse into a strong sell off .. we definitely got that, and i think there may be more to go. As you can see we broke the red support that has been holding us up for months… if we confirm that tomorrow.. we might see some strong selling come into play. 104$ is the next level of support, I think we might hit that first before we see any bounce.

GLD dauily

From Unersaettlich
The following chart has additional evidence to support Idan’s ideas. 104 is indeed critical for GLD, since it represents a potential breakdown of the long upwedge (if it occurs). Also, the importance of horizontal levels just above and below 100 becomes even more obvious, as does the role of a different set of Fibonacci retracement levels. A variety of daily and weekly (generated from daily data at bottom) and hybrid ($BPGDM “bullish percentage for gold mining stocks” divided by $VIX, at top) indicators, along with the topping 20-day MA (white arrows), echoes action that began previous significant drops.

Static chart:

GLD

Link to live chart (requires subscription):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p10230429692&listNum=1&a=186521591

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Anyone who believes strongly that overnight action predicts subsequent moves, or that action in one market center predicts moves in the next one to open, should study the chart below:

GoldReversals102109

This chart shows spot gold prices, but similar reversals just occurred for the US dollar, S&P futures, and many other items traded 24 hours.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.