Idan:
4:21pm
Although tomorrow is a friday, it’s going to be incredibly important. With JPM borken down and FAZ breaking out (XLF break down) a confirm of this move lower in the markets would be the first big sign of a down trend coming. I think it’s worth taking up some FAZ and shorting JPM in the afternoon. (I have.).
2:14pm, JPM being stopped here at 40.44… nice little 25 cents (about 0.55% profit). I will be placing another 2000 shares short.. with a stop above 40.70 at $40.50…
Woo:
1:52 pm
Sorry been ridiculously busy lately. Here is an updated 1 month SPX:
Idan:
1:30pm
Stopped out of FAZ at 20.91… with (0.30% profit), this DOES NOT mean that FAZ can’t go any higher, i’m very confident that if faz can hold it’s ground here we can be shooting up very dramatically very very soon. JPM will probably be weaker than most financials, so if you want to place a JPM short XLF long hedge, that looks good to me.
1:13pm
I’m moving my stop on JPM tighter so i can lock in more profits just in case we do rally bakc up… moving it to 40.44.
12:51pm
Move stops down guys… keep locking those profits in.. putting a stop at $20.91 (7 cents locked for sure).
12:30pm
FAZ is looking incredibly nice here… going long with 3000 shares here ($20.84).. Put a stop right at $20.71
12:21pm
For those of you who got in short JPM the same time i did… a suitable stop would be somewhere around $40.55, so that you lockin at least a nice 0.3%.
12:15pm
Just got back from a Q4 meeting… (the last one thank god) but guess what? I am short a stock. Most of you would guess… JPM 2000 share at $40.69 . We’ve been expecting a breakdown for a while and now we got it… nice H&S!
2:17am
Here goes Citigroup issuing more shares, and the stock plummets… I must say that was one of the worst moves they could have made. I think that they are better off under some governmental control right now, maybe take it slow, raise more capital slowly over 2 years rather than try and get out all at once. They forget that they work for the shareholders, and this is a BIG blow to them. What are your guys’ thoughts on this?
pick up some GOLD
is there any main difference between GLD and GOLD? By the way your pick looks much more health
Good afternoon fellow traders. Been out of town for a week but back and still sitting 100% short for nearly 3 months now. As the markets close its looks like I’ll be about 5% down or so. I’ve been anywhere from 13% down to 3% up for the past couple months. Not great at all, and not what I expected for sure.
Still believing we have a correction very soon, and plan to start scaling out of positions, (all short etf’s, some 1x, some 2x, some 3x) once I’m up at least 5%. I still believe we’ll be seeing SPX 990 or lower before the correction is over. However as my track record over the past 2 months shows, my crystal ball seems to be quite defective on most days.
Good luck to everybody, and here’s hoping the correction continues tomorrow, but larger than 1% down if you would.
Welcome back dude! I was waiting for you to show up today
It was an outstanding 3 days for the shorts..
Thanks buddy. Yep, it looks encouraging for sure. I just really want to see a much larger than 1% pullback in a day, that will make me feel like we’re making a serious move. Still prepared for this to be another head fake, but got some faith it might be the real thing. Confirmation tomorrow would be really big. Hope your making some money, and I’ll catch you later or tomorrow.
@ nightrider
I finally bailed at $21.0719. Had to use a market order because HFT phuckers were frontrunning my 21.09 limit. Then it closes at 21.11. Bastards!
What was your entry price Shaka? I came within .09 of my target and am holding. As Idan said today FAZ looks good for even higher numbers and I too am confident that it will continue going higher.
Avg. cost of $19.23 from earlier this month. I missed 2 great opportunities twice this month waiting to ride it into the 22′s. I’ve already ridden this thing up to 21.08 once before and didn’t take profits. I didn’t want this one to pass, especially since we didn’t bust 1096 on the SPX. I think SPX gaps up tomorrow, but who the hell knows with this crazy market. I will be looking to re-load for another ride. I agree with Idan that FAZ has got legs, I just think maybe not tomorrow.
Looks like RIMM is giving a lift after hours
Boooya….hope it sticks in the morning going to unload my options at the opening bell
RIMM up 12% AH; it is trading @$71.5 as I am typing this.
I have JAN 60 calls @ avg of $6.50
What would this be in the morning? Any guess????
12
now 13
Yum..yum….
Anybody use EW on RIMM? I’d like to know where it stand from EW perspective.
Sell tomorrow or hold a little longer?
At least $13+
Good trade. I guess the ‘Gazette’ was bang on.
I bought jan 70 calls at 1.50…I will be happy if I double it..since I doubt the primium would be high on it
aa
awesome …congrats
uauu..it is exactely 50% retracement from last high, 88 …what means….very bearish…
I will monitor it closely tomorrow
Thanks BB. That’s what i’m afraid of. But i’m a beginner on TA. I need help guys….
Can somebody show a chart & analysis on this?
I know I shouldn’t be greedy & lock my profit but last time i did that, the stock keep flying away. So really want to get it right, & learn this the right way.
Woo, Idan, any comment?
Take enough profit in order to recover your initial capital so even if the option goes against you , your flat.
Personally, after playing options myself these past months, it’s rare that you make more money than the initial move.Why? Because even if RIMM keeps on going up, the time value attached to the option drops everyday.
For example, I bought DEC 112 call options on Nov 02.
I bought them for about 70-80 cents, and sold them on Nov 15 for $2. During the month of December, we did indeed reach 112 on the SPY, but the options were only trading at a $1.50 premium. Thus selling early is generally the more favourable route to go. If you want to keep the option, always be hedged.
Be long the call, and short the stock…
Thanks zee.
Agree with zee, I would only trade options within 30 days on an intraday basis. An options starts losing its value quickly once OPEX hits, which is tomorrow. If you were holding FEb calls I would say hold on if you think the stock will go higher. If I were you I would sell for a 100% or more gain then switch the calls to Feb options, this way if RIMM goes sideways for a couple of days you’re not losing time value on your hard earned profits.
The rule, using Fibonacci is very simple: any retracement is valid only if it reaches at most 61.8%.
In English, it means:
50% – is the strongest resistance. Usually once reached it drops. I mean usually it will drop from 71.5
However sometimes it can go further. So 61.8% (58.00) is the maximum
Conclusion
- The current trend is bearish. In order to prove that RIMM changed it, it has to go beyond 58
- Hold your stop orders tight after 71.5
Sorry, please read:
…. So 61.8% (75.00) is the maximum
Repeating everything due some errors:
The rule, using Fibonacci is very simple: any retracement is valid only if it reaches at most 61.8%.
In English, it means:
50% – is the strongest resistance. Usually once reached it drops. I mean usually it will drop from 71.5
However sometimes it can go further. So 61.8% (75.00) is the maximum
Conclusion
- The current trend is bearish. In order to prove that RIMM changed it, it has to go beyond 75
- Hold your stop orders tight after 71.5
Thank guys,,,, this is what i like about this blog. People are willing to teach others.
hey jon,
just curious–did you put a straddle on the rimm trade?
no I went with straight calls (Jan 70)…too busy and scared to study and apply straddle
For the next one, a straddle is the purchase of the same expiry and strike price, the same dollar amount. Example $1000 of Jan call strk 100, $1000 of Jan put strk 100.
it is very hard to make profits with straddle.
Specifically this case, it is a good candidate for a Credit spread
This is actually ideal for straddling. The purpose of straddle is to ensure that one side of the trade will more than double and that way you know that anything after that is pure profit.
What other situation would you say a straddle would work if not this one?
yeah thought rimm was good for a straddle. rimm typically moves 8-9%. the move needs to be big one way or the other for the straddle to pay off.
SNV
LONG 65,000 SHARES AT THE CLOSE
I did this trade yesterday but exited flat. At $1.92, if history repeats itself it should gap up to $2.00 tomorrow.
Idan,
Are you still shorting gold? What is your target on GLD? Thanks!
Gold has support at 107.40… if it breaks that tomorrow, i’ll be entering huge short gold positions… i’ll have a video out later tonight.
Does RIMM stellar Q3, good for APPL?
I mean, I’ve seen more & more people convert to iPhone. If RIMM is doing that good, wouldn’t APPL will be better?
I have hardly seen anyone want Rimm…its all apple iphone
Earlier I said how I had a stop set at 143.31 on UPRO right after I bought today around 143.55
(My brother’s account)
I only show a low print of 143.335, yet was stopped out for 143 34.
Upon inquiry, below is what he was sent in EM. Am I (he) being bullshatted?
“Nasdaq stop-losses become a market order once the stock is quoted at the stop-loss price. The key word is “quoted”, meaning once the stock is quoted at your price it becomes a market order.”
“At 12:49:49, the inside bid moved to $143.31 and that triggered our stop to
sell at the market.
There were 8 prints between the bid triggering our bid at 12:49:49 and our order
executing at 12:49:50. In that gap the inside went from .31 to .33, .35, .36,
.35, .36, .37, .36, .35, .34, .35, .35, and finally to .34 where you were
filled. When the quotes are moving so fast it is hard to predict what you are
going to get.”
The computers of the big traders look for tight stop losses and drive down the price just to pick up the shares at the cheap price. That you got 143.34 means multiple trading firms were seeking out your stock and they had to compete with each other once they got the bid down to 143.31. Tight stops are for suckers and I’ve been burned by them too many times. I don’t know why they are pushed so much on this site.
Yeah, lesson learned. I almost never use physical stops, but then I rarely use leveraged ETF’s either. No big actual loss other than the lost opportunity, this time. Still feel ripped off though.
I guess I was always under the impression that someone had to sell first at my stop price in order to trigger my sell order.
Thanks, Jeff.
Thoughts on all the call option activity on SPY all the way down to 85. Look at the 105 strike. Big move is right around the corner I have a feeling.
Which month?
It could just be a hedge fund’s strategy…
I sold 100 SPY puts for $1 each. They’re now a penny.
I do believe we are topping though, we need to break 1070 for confirmation!
December, gotta think a lot of funds establishing new S&P shorts or intentionally getting called out of long positions. Just seems unusually heavy volume with expiration tomorrow. Should be a volatile day. Cannot believe the rally in bonds today. Looking to buy TBT long term under 46 if we see it. My call on the semi equip has been early thus far but still believe as LRCX cracked today. Think NVLS is prime to fall.
Pimco’s Gross Boosts Cash to Most Since Lehman Failed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aomISU.unZU4&pos=2
How many hours have you guys traded/researched for? I’m a bit above 2,000.
..
[excerts]
The second chapter in the new book Outliers is titled The 10,000-Hour Rule. Author Malcolm Gladwell shares his research that shows few people get to the top of their game without putting in at least 10,000 hours of preparation.
”The closer psychologists look at the careers of the gifted, the smaller the role innate talent seems to play and the bigger the role preparation seems to play.”
Whether it’s Bill Gates, Michael Jordan, the Beatles, Yo Yo Ma, Mozart, or Warren Buffet, it appears no one gets to the top without putting in their 10,000 hours. If you put in 40 hours a week, that’s 5 years. If you only find 20 hours a week to work on your area of excellence it will take 10 years. If you’re just squeaking out 5 hours a week – it’s going to take 40 years. Talent will only take you so far; it’s the hours of work that will separate you from the pack.
The problem is that we have become an “instant” society. We have been spoiled with email, cell phones and microwaves – and become impatient with the nanosecond required to load a new web page. College graduates expect the $100,000 job and the $500,000 house instantly. Talented musicians and athletes expect fame and fortune long before investing 10,000 hours in practice. Writers give up after writing their great novel in a weekend and after a month of searching for a publisher. Christians are often confident their idea came from God, thus assuming success will be easy and instantaneous.
So where have you put in your 10,000 hours? If you are in a job that you hate, have you been investing hours in an area of excellence that will give you a new opportunity? Or do you just waste the hours away from work, hoping for something more fulfilling to appear? If you are a writer, a musician, a landscape designer, a web designer or a husband, have you put in your 10,000 hours of concentrated preparation to be great in that area?
I trust this is an encouraging bit of information. You don’t have to regret having average talent, or not having the highest IQ, or being born into the wrong family. Just find your area of excellence and put in 10,000 hours of preparation. You’ll bypass those with more “advantages” and find success that others only dream of.