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01
Dec
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Follow me on Twitter: korenidan87
2:06pm
Putting back 10% of my potfolio SHORT GLD… at $117.44 stops are around days highs $118.05.
1:54pm
Some mixed signals from the Dow and the SPX… the Dow is right now reaching the top of it’s wedge and megaphone formations (resistance right here), while the SPX has another 1% to go… same with the 50% retrace. The dow hit it at 10300ish, where as the SPX has 1% more to go… will we see the Dow under perform the indecies over the next few days?
1:45pm
I’m actually going to try to increase my shorting in MELI… from a total of 2.5% to 8% of my porftolio. I will take another 2% of my portfolio short right here at 52.15, but will look to get short on another spike up tomorrow if it will happen.
1:43pm
Stopped out at $37.98, for a (0.31% +).
1:33pm
Now moving up the Stop to $37.97… from then on i’ll keep a 10 cent trailing stop.
1:28pm
I’m moving my stop to $37.90 on the SSO to be profitable no matter what (0.13%+).
1:23pm
We have MELI joining the overbought list… which means that that’s worth a shot at shorting, you can hedge it with the SPY if you wish. Short 2.5% of portfolio of MELI at $52.05… will look to place a second half of a position short if we rise higher towards $53-54.
1:17pm
Taking an SSO position here as SPY is at $37.85 as a day trade. stop at 37.75.
11:49am
SPY being up here yet again at triple top could mean that we could still see one extra push higher… i would go long if we break today’s highs again for a day trade. 1120-1122 is the fib retracement of 50% of the bear market… that would mean that going short anywhere between 1120-1128 sounds pretty good to me. But going long up until that point is also great if we break last week’s highs.
Hey guys, yesterday’s positive day was not the best thing for the bears but wasn’t great for the bulls either. It was rather insignificant. While I do still favor the downside to at least 1075 on the SPX (where we could see a reversal back up), if we do get another green day of more than 0.5%, i would have to cover my shorts. Most shorts have still stops in the green, but AXP is one that has been outperforming the market even though I thought it would under perform:
As you can see in the 60 minute graph below, we are trading in a channel between the blue ascending resistance and the red ascending support. Since we hit the resistance last week, I expected a fall to the red support. However, instead it looks like we are either forming a H&S formation (over the last few days) or are about to retest that resistance once more. I would put stops at the 42$ level, and if it’s broken go long until the blue line where you can go short again.
The red ascending line that is not parallel to the other lines (which is now support) is a longer term resistance of a wedge that we broke out of… it will form strong support at the 40.50 level which is also the neckline of the H&S… so that will tell us whether we break lower on this name or not. If we do break lower.. look out for 38-38.50.
Time to sell
Morris, any target sell for SCO & ERY?
December 1st, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I don’t know yet. I’m down about 1.75% on ERY and basically flat on SCO right now. We’ll see how things go tomorrow.
December 1st, 2009 at 3:36 pm
morris, first target may be 50ma 60min. 13,6
December 1st, 2009 at 3:55 pm
selling my 2K SCO @ 13.22, a small gain, the 6 week flag on oil could just as easily break out to the high side, as I think the S and P is finally going to break 1112 and move up a bit – better to be in cash overnight
December 1st, 2009 at 6:16 pm
I held my 2000 shares overnight.
December 1st, 2009 at 7:11 pm
good luck – you must feel the market is going to correct or at least stay within the trading range for now – I’ve been strictly doing day trades, initiating at resistance, edge of the range trying to keep my risk low. Has worked, but I have missed some good upside, yesterday with UWM, Friday with UCO.
Anything you use as a guideline as to how long you stay in your trades when winning and how much risk you will take on when you’re not?
December 1st, 2009 at 7:43 pm
For shorter term trades, I normally stay in no longer than 3 days (even if I think the position could keep going up) and I usually get out if I end up down around 3% at any point. For example, I did 18 shorter term trades in November (not counting the ERY and SCO that I bought yesterday) and I closed about half of them on the trading day right after the day the trade was initiated. The 2 losers were closed with losses of 2.70% and 3.09%. The 16 winners were closed with an average percentage gain of 4.5%. 11 trades were in bull ETFs and 7 were in bear ETFs.
I also missed some trades on the long side so far this week. I’ll get more active when things settle back down at work.
Best of luck to you!
December 1st, 2009 at 7:59 pm
thanks Morris – this helps. Continued success to you, will look forward to your posts.
Is the UUP catching a bid..?
December 1st, 2009 at 3:30 pm
I guess not !!!
Woo – you there ? what are you seeing here ?
December 1st, 2009 at 3:47 pm
financials aren’t participating…its setting up to fall..but do you think a rise first???
woo, hurry..wake up
I expect a little consolidation tomorrow, so big boys have enough time to manage thier money and go short and then a big drop on Friday.
woo is most likely long calls into the close….he and i’ve been thinking pretty much the same thing lately. and i went very very long into the close, looking for another gap up open to hit 1120+ tomorrow. be long, sit back and enjoy the fireworks!
December 1st, 2009 at 5:39 pm
No way we get two days gap up in the row. We need consolidation and maybe on thursday or friday another gap up, but next time I am almost sure that the next gap up will face a huge sell off. That is what big boys do. They wait for good news and a big gap up and then they sell thier shares to people who always come to the party late.
December 1st, 2009 at 6:17 pm
be long or be wrong.. im with ya haha
December 1st, 2009 at 2:43 pm
What happened to Dec 1 being the bottom of the cycle? The same thing that happened to the dollar short squeeze? There is a panic to push the dollar down at all costs because if the dollar should recover for two or three days in a row the entire market will crumble like a house of cards which it is. Bull-shouters such as yourself will wake up one day broke.
December 1st, 2009 at 9:53 pm
I do think what your saying will happen just not now.
Either way I am long equity and I am collecting some huge call premiums to hedge against the downside.
(Dow 28$ calls were trading over $1 yesterday, can you believe that?)
I am not dumb either I have stops at 1070, so far I’m up 3% on a huge portfolio while only being invested 35.32% long with no DD except for market risk if the market goes below 1000 (I sold 100 SPY puts).
That’s pretty good. And I don’t think I’m going to wake-up BROKE. Living the life buddy. Up a good 372% for the year, 79.72% for the month.
December 1st, 2009 at 6:02 pm
My plan was to buy puts if this gaps up tomorrow, whether it opens at 1112 or 1120.
But I’d just go for a modest pullback around 1100.
If it doesn’t gap up, and is sideways, then that’s going to be a tougher call for me.
My trend lines seem to be relevant for the last few weeks, the market is clearly avoiding them, gapping above and below. We gapped above today of course- here’s my spy daily chart- http://social.stocktock.com/photo/20091201spychart-1?context=user
Some sort of topping/reversal pattern should play out from this point. I believe a rising wedge will form from here but its too early to say. Otherwise we need to look deeper. I am still long because I believe the top is further down the road, but it’s hard to say, the market goes wherever it wants lately and it gaps where it wants to avoid support/resistance.
December 1st, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Need to clarify what I meant by being long- my retirement accounts are long, my trading account though is in cash.
I haven’t been posting here much lately, and I don’t intend to as I’ve said my focus will be my family for the rest of the year.
No more short term/swing trading positions for me as I have said I’d close all non-long-term positions by December 1 2009. My current positions: AXP short with double January 41 calls (I know, it’s insanity, but AXP looks like it’s building MA rollover process), JPM short with double January 42 calls (JPM MA’s are already rolling over), and TNA January 30 puts (3X ETF = long term loser, plus small caps are weaker than the DOW & SPX).
JPM, GS, BAC, and MS are just putting in MA rollovers, shorter time frame crossing longer time frames. I may actually break my own rule, shorting MS in December should MS spike up to $32.78 There hasn’t been a more perfectly looking bearish chart than this stock in a while.
The indices did lock in “sell” signals at least two weeks back, but like I said timing is still more important that price. The top may be within 10% (for stocks) or 7% (for indices) from where the signals are triggered, but the slow grind of December will kill theta for options traders and kill a few nerves for straight-up shorts. That’s the reason I hate December options and always close out my short term positions on December 1.
The next date I am targeting is still a few months away. The VIX gap left from the Thanksgiving holidays ought to be filled, don’t you think? There are still two VIX gaps above (48 and 71), but the path of least resistance is the gap below. For those who shorted last week’s open or Monday’s open, hopefully this serves as an inexpensive learning lesson.
Problems in Dubai is just the beginning. Link Dubai (November 25 2009) to subprime mortgage (August 2007). There will be a Bear Stearns equivalent in the sovereign debt defaults, but keep in mind that it will be “saved” to prevent global economic collapse. There will be a Lehman Brothers equivalent, too. This is the reason I fear the social impact of the next drop, and I’d rather that I only make money on a major correction instead of a total collapse. If P3 is really as powerful as Prechter puts it, then by the time the bottom is reached, it likely won’t matter whether you’re a bull or a bear. Same thing applies to the Dollar, should DXY drop below 70 (conservatively speaking), we’re talking about a major currency crisis and it won’t matter whether you’re a bull or a bear, either.
One thing to keep in mind though, we WILL survive this mess, as long as we all work together and help each other.
December 2nd, 2009 at 6:47 am
Fritz,
A few weeks ago you mentioned that you were going to be setting up a blog for yourself. Is that still in the picture?
Thanks for your insights! Much appreciated, even though they seem to get more bearish each time.
Take care and all the best with you and your family.
Cheers!
-Mo.
Zee
I’m a little confused by your long comment here and your chart that explains that on Dec 1 if we are closer to 1120 we are topping and if we are closer to 1075 we are near a bottom. Can you provide an explanation. Right now I see we are just in a lateral trading range with weakening indicators so trade the range.
December 1st, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Ve.
The real bottom was for Nov 30th, not December 1st. One day can make a huge difference. On Nov 30th, the market was at 1085, thus it was closer to 1075 than 1100 so the bottom was put, so I went long.
I don’t really care what the market does. I have sold calls on all my longs so I will likely exit most of them +5-8%+ if they are exercised. If the market drops, I have stops at 1075 + I am hedged by selling calls. If the market is flat, I collect the premium on selling puts + calls.
Either way I win. I’m up 79.72% since November 2nd. I’ve never made so much money being long and disciplined
December 1st, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Yesterday, I sold 2000 naked faz calls in total of (Strike $27 and 28) and netted $380 after fees. Today FAZ is at $19, and i’m just killing the premium. FYI, FAZ has not seen 27$ since sept02.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:14 pm
edit 20 naked contracts=2000 shares.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Zee – went long MRK today as well – what is your tgt for this one ?
I see 38.50, then 39.10, 40 …
December 1st, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Zee – you were planning to buy calls today – can you share what calls you bought and what price?
Also, did your exams go well or are you just preparing for them right now ?
December 1st, 2009 at 10:37 pm
I didn’t have a chance to buy calls today… I was real busy.
As for MRK, it hit it’s 52-week high today and mentioned before it’s outperforming the DJIA in November like crazy. If the market goes up, $38 is the first target.. if the market really does push to 1200 which I think it will MRK can easily hit $40+ . But remember if the market sees a 1069 handle you should be selling.
My exams are from dec-11th-19th!
Thanks for asking.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:23 pm
Thanks for clearing that up
The premiums on GLD options are INSANE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GLD
December 1st, 2009 at 11:17 pm
I have to ask because it’s gnawing at
me. Was that you who posted on dans
blog insulting him and Kenny a few weeks ago? Or was that a zee imposter. Sorry sometimes the arrogance makes me want to throw up.
i’m a rooky in this… but can some one explain, why gold is up… and market up… too… in this last 6m….?
this can last long… one of the two is going down… i “bet” market… P3 is coming…