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30
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Follow me on Twitter: korenidan87
1:00pm
XLF also has a H&S formation on the 10 minute but it’s actually outperforming the markets today, for the first time.
12:49pm
Market showing more weakness, we do have some small H&S formations on a lot of stocks like AXP and USO 10 minute… we’ll see if we get a continued move to the downside. Gld was down now it’s flat… it’s still holding on.. my stops are around the 116 level just in case.
1:00am
Futures are up slightly after having been up 0.6-0.8%. Tomorrow is a key day. If we do see another push higher, then we might have to wait until 1120-1128 on the SPX to see the next stronger push lower, however as you can see below the dow jones daily shows us that we are in a topping pattern in the short term, and that a 3-4% down fall from here is more likely than trying to hit the resistance of the megaphone again:
Here’s Cobra’s take on the week ahead.
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
November 30th, 2009 at 3:43 am
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Gotta believe we open higher and quickly pull back. I feel we close deep in the red probably 1.5% or more.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Well looks like you covered both bearish scenarios….
Futures just tanked im not sure what happened but Europe is all red now.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:56 am
Yeah, it was quick too. Maybe I jumped the gun with my comments above, here’s a second prediction: we open in the red and fall hard from there.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:14 am
Back to green now…WTF I liked your first prediction.We run up to 1110 on the S&P which gives me a good entry on EDZ then the market sells off with heavy volume..
November 30th, 2009 at 4:19 am
Yep, maybe prediction number 1 was best. Either way we end in red, which is really the most significant part of the prediction.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:32 am
It should be an interesting week,the dollar looks weak and oil is up looks like the fed wants a santa rally.
Yep, but Santa will be putting coal in the adult kiddies stockings instead, methinks!
My call is the market will sell off initially with some wild swings. The market will then begin to turn between 11:00 – 1:00 closing up for the day. Levels to keep your eye on are 1080 and 1070 on the S&P
I think ST is quickly becoming a “post a wish and hope it comes true” site.
November 30th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Nice!
People seem to be ignoring that line at the top that says “We don’t trust opinions. We trust the charts.”™
November 30th, 2009 at 9:04 am
I think charts are fine, but you need an underlying strategy behind them. It’s essential that your strategy is giving you results based on strategy and not luck. During the winter break (as short as it is), I will try to read further into automated trading systems. IMO, that is the route I want to purse.. Most call it quantitative as it is the next step above technicals.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:28 am
That is the way I am going to. I am following a site but attempting to reverse engineer their system (they wont release their code) its a modest investment system that made 50 trades over 10 years. Using leverage, and limit sell orders, however, it returned about 2000%. This is good enough for me and it gets me out of staring at the ticker every day.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:50 am
What is the link to the site?
Well Morris what is your wish?
November 30th, 2009 at 9:18 am
My wish is that people will post accurate trading advice on this blog.
Dubai: The City on Crack
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/
good photos of the insanity.
My wish is that we stay range bound..
Let ‘x’ be the amount of days left until Christmas.
Let ‘y’ be the amount of wishes we make.
Guys have you ever thought that perhaps as X reaches <30, we are more psychologically prone to make wishes
. For extreme bears, they may be wishing FAZ goes back to 2000, or P3 starts, thus these bears believe that as X reaches 0, Y reaches infinite. For extreme bulls, they may be wishing DOW goes to 150,000. Thus, as X<30, Y reaches infinite.
We all know the market loves to grant the least wishes. Maybe this Christmas will truly be a boring trading season and we stay in the 1060-1110 granting NO wishes to bears or bulls. Santa Market Maker, what will you do?!
(Disclaimer: This post was a joke and probably was not funny.. just trying to take some stress off from final exams)
November 30th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Zee – had a q for you on the last post …. is it possible to make a new intra-day high today and then fall into tomorrow and still hold to the cycle ?
I am hoping for a sideways
so that the cycle plays can continue ….
November 30th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
It’s possible.. and I’m glad it did not happen because that would just confuse the heck out of me.
Cycles are usually pretty obvious with good risk/reward.
This cycle is go long to 1160, with stops at 1075.
November 30th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Cool … so we need to wait for tomorrow as well …. and make sure we don’t break the high … or is this ok now ?
Did you enter anything today …
November 30th, 2009 at 10:14 am
What are you stuyding for ?
Best of luck for your exams
November 30th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
thank you.
5 exams.. communications,management,econ,computers+stats
–Dubai Stocks Shed 7%, Abu Dhabi Tumbles 8%
United Arab Emirates stocks dived on Monday as investors waited for clarity on Dubai’s plan to delay repaying billions of dollars in debt and government word on how it would tackle a crisis that has rattled global markets.
Dubai raised fears of a second bout of financial turmoil last week when it asked for a six-month repayment freeze on debt issued by state conglomerate Dubai World and its unit Nakheel, developer of three palm-shaped islands.
But global stocks steadied on Monday after the UAE central bank promised additional liquidity to local banks and an official in Dubai’s oil-exporting neighbor Abu Dhabi said it would offer selective support to Dubai firms.
“Investors are likely to hold on to their shares after a sharp sale last week as worries over the ripple-effect of Dubai’s debt eased over the weekend,” said Eddy Chen, a vice president at National Investment Trust in Taiwan.
This: The markets have been closed for the Eid al-Adha holiday since Nov. 26 and other major Gulf markets remained shut on Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34201213
“The market over-reacted on Friday,” said Phillips Securities analyst Rock Lam.
I’m not too sure how this was an overreaction. We’ve just been through a huge credit crisis and we’ve seen huge banks go bust. Of course if we here an entire nation can’t repay debt, investors will get scared.
i hope… 1095-1095 is the top… for today… i just went short in Put’s…
1086-84… will give me nice profit…
November 30th, 2009 at 10:43 am
I think we will test 110.34 on the SPY today
TWO STOCKS IM WATCHING . ive made no trades today and intend to make no changes to my SHORT-FOLIO
weekly chart RSH ………… once it pops out of this flag higher. im shorting it. if it fails to pop out of this flag im shorting it. either way im shorting it and im patient.
— LTM — something is clearly amiss with this company. we rally it falls. we fall it falls. it simply has no bounce in it. they run fitness centers. im not taking a position today but i am going to look into this one further.
i like to find charts that tell a story and then i like to confirm this against the financials.
—– ZRAN —- still in this short and it is red again today. however, the chart is starting to shape up for a possible push higher so finger on the trigger to cover.
gs upgraded banks…..remember, gs does god’s work, watch out for the banks rally! i just bot some calls on bac, c, jpm…..
November 30th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Can you share a link pls ?
November 30th, 2009 at 11:14 am
This is all i could find,I think Bullish bear is just a tad too bullish..
Financials rise, Goldman says loss cycle near end
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financials-rise-goldman-says-loss-cycle-near-end-2009-11-30?siteid=yhoof
November 30th, 2009 at 11:17 am
That’s what I read too. They didn’t just upgrade them, only reaffirmed their position. What else do you expect them to do? Actually downgrade a fellow big bank and TARP recipient? That would be like admitting the bailout was a waste of taxpayer money… and you’ll never hear those words from any of the gang doing “God’s work”.
Hi Richard. The Automatic Earth blog posted a very interesting article this weekend I wonder if you have time to read. The entire blog is good but the part I’d like your take on starts below the “US Dollar will collapse in 2010″ vid
No rush- I’ll check back later today or this eve and see what you think.
thnx and GL w/ your trades today.,
Here’s the blog:
.http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
November 30th, 2009 at 11:40 am
— DUBAI — caused the futures quite a stir. imagine if the announcement was “American unable to meet debt obligations”…. what would the futures do then. id imagine the big moves we saw Friday morning would be nothing. 2010 seems a bit early on the timeline the way this thing is playing out. Bernanke saying “don’t audit the Fed” because it will be harmful to the economy sure tells us loud and clear that thier are alot of rugs to look under. or is it a bear trap?
the FED is clearly stuck. pull the liquidity to save the dollar and the dollar may tank anyway on the collapsing credit lines and deflationary spiral. im not so sure hyperinflation is a worry. look at how much cash they have dumped into the system yet we are not much worse off than 2 years ago. people are still slowing thier spending which is deflationary. these retail reports / consumer confidence numbers and the like can all be fudged.
seems the key is lieing. we can all see that. print and lie and lie and print and hope people with no money get out and spend some more they can’t afford. the whole thing has to make even the brightest mind’s head spin. truly, ive given this so much thought… there is no solution. CRE will not implode in 2010 ……. take a look at the balance sheets of CRE …. HOTELS are in bad shape but alot of other CRE are strong to 2012. CRE will go down in waves.
THIS VIDEOS IS AWFULLY DOOMSY ….. i think it takes more time for what they are stating to occur. look at how long we have rallied on spin alone. maybe we can spin our way past a few more booby traps.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:43 am
— DONT WATCH OR READ TOO MUCH OF THIS STUFF — this will only poison your mind and make you more biased in your trading. we have to try and “LOOK AWAY” and stick with charts and financials of companies. the media spin and doomsday blogs won’t help to keep us sharp.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
I’m with you Richard, good advise. You always add value to this site and it’s appreciated.
From Kenny’s site:
http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/market-conversation-for-november-30.html#disqus_thread
EWI has begun to offer Part 1 of the Fib E-book. This book is one of the few things I recommend. Not saying the rest is junk, but there are only a few things that I bought that I really like. This is one of them. Just find the box on the right and click on it. You must be a Club EWI member. If you are not, you can join free. It has many free benefits. I guess to get part 2, you will need to buy it. But there is a lot of info in Part 1 that can stand alone. Big blue box on the right side.
A question for anyone regarding S&P support and resistance levels: Do you find the daily or weekly pivot levels to be more accurate ?
November 30th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
the daily charts , im finding , way tooo whippy. im using the weekly charts to make my decisions right now.
——— UAUA ———- nice little short squeeze on this one today. took half off on Friday.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:41 am
————— PCLN ———— is trying to relieve itself of the overbought condition. im up in these puts.
Russell 2000 down 1% today, has not had the “post Dubai” bounce like spx – it’s at it’s lowest point since that news….is it finding a bottom or leading the rest down? Break below 570 should take it another leg down. Think we are at a critical inflection point for the day right now…
Are we about to tank here..?
November 30th, 2009 at 11:40 am
double to on spy, friday and today?
could be about to tank!
November 30th, 2009 at 11:55 am
take a look at the spx hourly chart for the last 3 weeks. textbook double top, we are right now on the neckline
November 30th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
2000 uwm @ 23.50
——– PBI ———– punched the clock at $23 ….. this one is really off to the races. guess you cant enjoy 60-1 leverage, ignoring it, paying a dividend…. forever. in the next year id say this company will pay for its horrible financial choices.
———- ZRAN ———– im still in this one and using the WEEKLY chart as my guide. if it punches $8.50 there is not much under it for support.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:54 am
9.13 looks like support….hitting it right now.
Yes, the auto earth video does sound doomsday but, to me, holds a ring of truth. I have not followed the market or the economy for the years req’d to put what is happening now in perspective w/ other events that have transpired. Thus my question to you. Thnx for your post.
In light of all going on in the world…CNBC covering Tigger Woods. Kind of sums up our American preference for escapism.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
way too funny @ Tiger Woods. they have been keen on the porn industry this year too. distractions indeed.
I plan to start a blog soon and I will be posting all of my trades there in real time once it gets up and running. I will keep posting the trades here in the meantime.
Best of luck to all today!
November 30th, 2009 at 11:51 am
I do not plan to initiate any trades today; very busy at work. Still have QID and DZZ which are longer term positions.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Morris, please keep posting your realtime trades here at ST; it is more easier for us to gather trading ideas and info in one spot. What’s wrong with this blog? We have already lost several valuable contributors here; don’t want to add you on the list……………..
November 30th, 2009 at 11:51 am
looking forword to that morris…
November 30th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
morris,
why do that ? just stick around here. i like reading your ideas and its nice to just stay in one spot to get different trading ideas. followed you into on trade and made some $$ … appreciate it. im not here all the time … but when i am.. im glad to see you here too.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
I agree with it being easier in one place …. but of course the final decision is yours
November 30th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I think that Idan and Woo are doing the kind of thing that Stocktock is all about (using TA to trade while sharing the charts/ideas behind the analysis so that others can learn from it). I don’t use TA and I don’t have time to explain the reasoning behind my trades so I’m basically just posting entries and exits for the most part.
Also, I would like for people who follow my trades to have the option of making a donation if they wish. I posted 18 short-term trades here in November with real time entries and exits and 16 were winners. Did anyone else post that many trades? It was a lot of work on my part.
So, I’m just trying to find the best vehicle for sharing my work and I’m not sure that ST is that vehicle. This is just an idea that I’m toying with and I may not follow through with it. We’ll see. Thanks for all of your supportive posts!
November 30th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
I’ll read your stuff no matter where it is. I guess I prefer here, but I understand if you’re trying to make some extra coin on Google adwords or whatever.
I’m still a relative newbie at this, but learning a lot everyday from you guys.
Good call Idan, 50% retracement, 1130 puts your 1128 call right on the mark. Commercial traders [50% of the market] will sell this market hard.
What side of that trade will you be on? ;]
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooew6-month-1118-linear?context=user
current chart i am watching
November 30th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
right now we’re below that white trend line….possible 1074 is the next area i am watching if we drop further.
———– LTM ———– posted earlier. im still looking into this . what it looks like to me is they need to raise some cash and fast. for every $1 in current assets they have $2 in current liabilities. this is if they are truthful about receivables and membership fees. you can imagine that many people who can’t afford thier gym membership may stop paying without notice so the company can have this fee coming in as a current asset. eg. 3 months of fees as an AR . now when 20% of those funds don’t arrive on time or not at all this can greatly affect the current ratio.
CURRENTLY THE STOCK TRADES right on the 40 week moving average . it is trading $5 over stated book value. most book values are inflated right now. the 20 week moving average is flat to turning down. RSI on the weekly is 45 and MACD approaching the zero line. the FULL STO shows the stock oversold below 20.
i like this trade for another 20% or so lower. see support at around the $17.50 level. the chart says the company is sick and the balance sheet confirms it. negative cash flow last quarter does not bode well for a company that is not current on the balance sheet.
- UAUA – put back on what i took off Friday. this one still putting a bear flag on weekly. not adding any new positions today.
Out of my JCG Put at 0.80. Got in on Wednesday for 0.5
Huge flares both ways on SPY …
November 30th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
i don’t see any…
——— 1085 ———- every technical trader in the world is prob. watching this.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
——- PBI PUTS ———- +77% and holding 1/2 … took some off at +68%
anybody watching RIMM?
November 30th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
my tech SHORT is ZRAN … and man alive … it just keeps falling.
RIMM seems to be quite flat. PALM is another choice for tech bears.
November 30th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Rich, RIMM looks bad to me. below 50 ma, 3 of 3, broke HS neckline. am i wrong?
November 30th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
im using the weekly charts. id wait for the 20/40 cross and bounce
November 30th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
PALM stretched out more to the upside and shows the same oversold condition as RIMM … for either im on the sidelines.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
just when you think rimm is dead it blows up in your face.
watch out.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
I watch rimm, 57.30 was friday low wick and I would be concerned under that
GOK broke below 10. This short paying off nicely. I wonder if I should keep pushing it?
November 30th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
nice. this one looks like it could steady a bit according to the weekly. put on my watch list to short a bounce
November 30th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Thanks Richard. How high do you think could bounce?
–SEED– +11% …………… is this some kinda ponzi scheme ? what is going on with this stock that never makes any money? any ideas?
November 30th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
from looking at the financials this one will be raising money soon. all sorts of pump to get that stock price up. CITRON has a piece on this one. a wait and see candidate. financials look like crap. all hype and no substance so far.
— RBCAA — 20 / 40 bearish cross on the weekly. good short if it runs back up to the $20 area. ive compiled a nice list today. im done for the day. adding nothing other than beefing up my UAUA.
the wedge on this sucker is going to end soon…
November 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
im going for a while. check back for the closing bell. looking back.. im kinda hogging the board. see if that 1085 holds by a hair today.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Thats good Richard
… nice to see you back …
SEED – I know that some people are playing this with Jan 10 puts … its reached resistance today … but this is too hot to touch right now at least for me …
November 30th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
please keep hogging the board. i like it better when you post a lot. always appreciate the hard work rich.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
if 1086.98 area holds, this might head north a good amount. i got out of my SPY dec 109 puts on friday selling at 2.35 (currently only a little above this price). wish i had gotten in at the top again earlier today, but decided to wait. may take an EOD position.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
ok now the 50ma is at 1090.4, fib is also sitting here. if you pay attention to RSI trend lines, we’re actually hitting one now. we’ll see if the market bounces south of 1090.5 area
this movement is short term bullish…
it should’ve broken south of the wedge sooner if it wanted. now the descending trend line below here is too low, and the wedge is too far above it…
it’s easier for the market to go north of here towards 1094 trend line, or even 1096 to hit the 2 day trend line…
November 30th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
there’s the break north from the wedge. 1090 area slight break. north of 50ma…
November 30th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
if 1090.8 breaks, we’ll most likely see that 1094 area.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
1090.8 held on 5 minute.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Just broke south of 1090.50, let’s see if it stays.
1000 SCO @ 13.35
November 30th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Just curious- ever use DTO? I hear it’s reported that the DTO/DXO ETNs don’t track the benchmark as well, and they’re more subject to contango, and can be harmed if Deutsche Bank (the sponsor of the ETN) gets harmed…BUT when I put put DTO and SCO on the same chart, DTO seems to out perform SCO.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
I’m just comfortable with the UCO/SCO pair at this point but I’ll look into DTO. Thanks for the tip!
November 30th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
I traded the DTO/DXO pair early this year, and I flet they outperformed the UCO/SCO pair. DXO was retired, so now only the DTO is available. From what I have read, there is more direct risk with an ETN vs. ETF.
any link to the news…IOC if I am looking at it right is only up.41 around 1%
November 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
im long OIL from $75.80 as a hedge against my SHORT-FOLIO
I think something will happen involving Iran. Their government just approved building 10 additonal nuclear sites. I don’t think Israel will just sit and watch.
USO broke out of its triangle – tgt is 40.50 – however there is resistance at 39.5 …
November 30th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Currently testing broken resistance @ 39-39.10 as support ….
— PBI —
those who like to wait for CONFIRMATION …. weekly chart = LOOK OUT BELOW …
WEEKLY chart PBI … check it out
MACD CROSSING TODAY
FULL STO HEADING BELOW 50
RSI TREND BROKEN
RSI BELOW 50
LOWER BB is $20.40 on my weekly chart………….NEXT TARGET 40MA $22.40 ..not far
is this thing going to a get a downgrade soon? has fallen 12% in 6weeks with flat market
November 30th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
— ZRAN — everyone knows im liking this short. however, PBI has more meat on it and ZRAN has to have wee bounce soon as it is slightly oversold.
— UAUA — zero reaction to the spike in oil. sitting right where i shorted it today. id say this is still a good short ….BEAR FLAG on the WEEKLY
6 pt flare north?
—- REMAIN 40% CASH — not going nutz until we break 1085 and back test it.
Volume picking up.
EOD pinch up?
November 30th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Yeah maybe.. but these small moves here are very insignificant.. today is a really dead day.
—– MYSTERIOUS DIP BUYERS —- please reveal yourselves. is it you Mr Fed? you think you will stop the American People from going NUTZ by keeping the markets propped up? most of the unemployed middle class are losing thier minds and dont have much in the markets anyway so good luck with this idea. in due time we should see revolt even with SP @ 1500
anyone agree or disagree that market up or market down… revolt against the ultra rich will occur sometime in the next 5 years?
November 30th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
The question is will the revolution come from the left, the right or will we revert to tribalism? As for the market, there is a 40% chance the Dow will be at 10, a 40% chance the Dow will be at 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 and a 20% chance the Fed, Obama, PPT, etc. will succeed in wiping out the average citizen without wiping out the U.S and the markets.
Hey Jim and Goingtoretireoneday!
What happened?! Can we still end red and get that 200 point drop? 20 minutes left….. Oh no, I bet everything on your call !!
November 30th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Good one 3min. They only show up when we are in RED
It was a claasic bear trap today so far down up down and up. Financials are kicking some butt today..
November 30th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I truly believe that the next crash will happen when the bears think it is a bear trap. Until then, it is has been very profitable timing the pull backs on emotional negativity.
There is a good chance the the Dubai thingy might spring board back to something worse tonight….so I am selling back to 40% cash. We did not bounce high enough today…there is still fear in the market.
1000 ERY @ 11.62
November 30th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
heading out for the day now. will hold this ERY position and the SCO position I established earlier today (1000 @ 13.35) overnight.
———- TZA ————- MACD CROSS on the daily FULL STO looks strong . RSI above 50 and trading above the 20MA…… potatoes good, ice cream good, hamburger good. lets have a hamburger and potatoe milkshake. this might be the week for TZA … see what tomorrow brings.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
——– MONDAYS —- they have been ultra bullish for a while now. today is not.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Richard, its s bear trap so bears pilled in this morning…lets see what happens tomorrow.
so up to 111.50 on the spy it is!
HUGE flare south…
omg…
November 30th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
what does that mean woo..are we gonna pop and take off tomorrow or drop?
hurry, markets closing
November 30th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
market broke north of some trend lines. we might head up towards 1098 and then DIP a good amount. the flare was like 30-40 pts! wtf. but end of day flares don’t play out as much because they have all AH and PM to play out.
i’m loading some puts, and unloading some calls here.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
me tooo….loaded on xlf and wfc puts , front month…lets see…hope for the plunge..sorry bulls
November 30th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
GS is wrong on the loss cycle. Short the 28 and 29 Dec WFC calls. TBT looks tempting here. I hope your flare plays out WOO. Had the WFC position prior to your call.
thx
November 30th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
plus its in a daily H and S along with the XLF..my guess is down
November 30th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
If you were a betting man woo how do you think tomorrow is going to play out
a continuation on up to 1100 or do we drop right out of the gate..
November 30th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
well the market is north of a trend line and fib. just broke out into closing. so it’s still bulish.
i have calls going into tomorrow – half of which is old because i got in near today’s bottom, and half i’m holding into tomorrow in hopes that we rise into 1098 if not higher. if we break 1098 then we could gap up to 1110 in a hurry.
i started loading puts here near the peak in case we do have a fall. i think i have fairly optimal positions on both so i’ll try and get in and out at the best times.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
way too many flares today-total 4 and one on friday
November 30th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Zee can you explain what that might mean…thanks
November 30th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
How do flares even happen? Are they just misprints of the exchange? Ever since electronic market, all orders are executed at the NBBO. Therefore you cannot cross the market, i.e. SPY is trading at bid 109.01 ask 109.02, you cannot sell be your SPY for 107.00 and thus the chart would show a flare. I’m baffled.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
*you cannot sell your SPY for 107 because that would be considered crossing and is illegal, yet flares occur all the time..hmm*
November 30th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Zee, “fourth” market trades can be executed at whatever price is negotiated between buyer and seller and legally, regardless of market price or bid/offer.
What I don’t know is, when/if these fourth market trades show up on the ticker.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
The SEC does not allow trading to occur outside the National Best Bid or Offer. National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) is a SEC regulation requiring brokers to guarantee customers the best available ask price when buying securities, and the best available bid price when selling securities. This resulted in the making of the Options linkage plan.
What you are taking about is Flash Orders, banned on September1st, 2009.. where you placed a market order and you bought 0.50 higher than what was on the LVII book. You cannot negotiate trades with another party without going through the NBBO.
http://www.economy-news.co.uk/flash-orders-1809.html
Although, to a certain extend spoofing can occur, just don’t send market orders.
Lastly, how can a market order get executed at 107 on the SPY? That makes no sense, and is a misprint. I work with these misprints all the time.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Zee, “fourth” market trades can be executed at whatever price is negotiated between buyer and seller and legally, regardless of market price or bid/offer
Can you show me evidence from a website.. In all my time watching the T&S and LVII this just does not happen.
Here’s the SEC website clearly explaining why the NBBO has to be in place.
http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s71004/sia020105.pdf
In contrast, the
NBBO approach incorporates the SEC’s trade-through provision that requires trading centers to
have policies and procedures which are “reasonably designed to prevent trade-throughs.”15 This
is a version of the rule that can and will be enforced.16 Therefore, it would provide greater price
protection in the listed market than currently exists.
The NBBO approach, therefore, strengthens investor protection in the listed markets. Of
course, similar to the SEC’s rule, it also takes the notable step of extending the ITS trade-through
rule beyond the listed markets to the entire Nasdaq market as well. This is a significant
expansion of the current reach of the ITS trade-through rule and is certainly a major step forward
in the price protection afforded investors.
Suppose that a
broker-dealer sends an intermarket sweep order on behalf of the investor in our example above.
Suppose also that Market A has a material number of shares in reserve at the NBBO, such as
1000 shares in reserve at $10.04. The intermarket sweep order will take out the displayed quotes
at $10.04 on Market A, $10.03 on Market B and $10.02 on Market C, as required by the tradethrough
rule. Yet, as a result of this sweep, the execution of the investor’s order has bypassed
the reserve order at the better price of $10.04. So, the investor has not received the best price.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
OK but the fourth market unlikely trades through the NYSE or BATS because they would be subject to the NBBO.
We see flares on charts, which is the data from BATS exchange and NYSE exchange, and those exchanges are subject to NBBO.. I just cannot see flares as being significant. I doubt the fourth market gets reported in the T&S as they do not have to report what trades they do.
Why would an institution trade outside the NBBO anyways, they’d just lose money. Conclusion, flares are just misprints by the exchange as the exchange itself only reports what gets traded at NBBO.
November 30th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
I’m sorry my post likely only makes half sence. I did know you were referring to -the- fourth market.
I thought you meant, secondly, thirdly, fourthly! I’d like to say ;blah;blah.
Fourth market and forthly I’d like to say…
jeez they got me confused..
ignore the first 2 posts.
I apologize if I sounded I mis-read ‘FOURTH’ for its secondary meaning
November 30th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I did NOT know** (spellingerrors..jeez today I’m out of it!)
I apologize if I sounded **RUDE**, I mis-read what you wrote.(wow Im really not alert today)
November 30th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Yeah that’s why they call it the fourth market. INSTINET is registered with the SEC as a stock exchange.
Again, I do not know when or even if they come across the ticker we see.
Institutions do not lose money trading on INSTINET. On the contrary, they use it to save money, mostly on commissions, by DIRECT trading large blocks between members, and also to avoid influencing open market price. They can display tentative volume bid/ask quotes to others within the system that may be different from open market quotes.
I don’t claim to know what causes flares, I only offer this as a possibility.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
humongous is the word for it …
howdy folks. i’m actually going long into tomorrow….trusting our best friend, the trend! basically long the spx calls and some calls on the banks, following gs’s report. be long or be wrong~
November 30th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
what made you change your ways lol ?