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1:00pm
XLF also has a H&S formation on the 10 minute but it’s actually outperforming the markets today, for the first time.
12:49pm
Market showing more weakness, we do have some small H&S formations on a lot of stocks like AXP and USO 10 minute… we’ll see if we get a continued move to the downside. Gld was down now it’s flat… it’s still holding on.. my stops are around the 116 level just in case.
1:00am
Futures are up slightly after having been up 0.6-0.8%. Tomorrow is a key day. If we do see another push higher, then we might have to wait until 1120-1128 on the SPX to see the next stronger push lower, however as you can see below the dow jones daily shows us that we are in a topping pattern in the short term, and that a 3-4% down fall from here is more likely than trying to hit the resistance of the megaphone again:
On most of my fills, I got executed at the top of the day(in the AM).. so I hedged my portfolio with 1% of it with puts + sold calls.. I check back 2 hours later and the puts were up +20% while all my long positions were down.. Nevertheless I sold the 104 puts and since then they have depreciated -33%.
I have went very safe long and I will likely start scaling into more aggresive positions tomorrow(spy calls). Even then I’m still going to hedge myself with puts. My stops are at 1075. A 2% DD for what I think a 8% rally will occur. 4/1 odds. Being short also has great odds, if you cover at 1120.. however the reward is very slim for dec. in my books.
Based on what action you have seen today,how likely do you think the S&P can go to 1120..?
Cool – what did you enter today ?
Also, the SPY calls that you are planning to enter – Dec or Jan ?
sold 2000 UWM before the close @ 24.50, bought this AM at 23.50, don’t trust the market to hold anything overnight
I have a question for people who are good at understanding options. How could we say the option activity on AIG is bearish or bullish today?
Hi Guys,
I was playing with some short term Fibonacci (SPY 15 min). Currently I am in cash. Everything is pretty tied.
Some levels to look tomorrow:
- Calculating Fibonacci from previous top, before holiday: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8%. If it goes higher it will invalidate this count
- Calculating Fibonacci from Fridays’s top: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8% and came back almost to the same level. If it goes higher, probably it will run at least until 111 (138.2%). The next Fibonacci extension (161.8%) matches exactly previous top (before holiday)
Conclusion
- if it goes higher, it will only “kiss and goodbye” last top
Sorry because it was wrong:
- Calculating Fibonacci from Fridays’s LOW: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8% and came back almost to the same level. If it goes higher, probably it will run at least until 111 (138.2%). The next Fibonacci extension (161.8%) matches exactly previous top (before holiday)
What does this mean – can you elaborate ?
All 2x/3x ETFs have had their margin requirements increased, both long and short.
they got cash ,?
I expect see a fake gap up tomorrow and then a quick reverse, although I have no evidence to prove my expectation. It is just my feeling.
That would be the ideal reversal and if it’s done with decent volume then we should hit below 1080 but we need a catalyst of some kind.
is anyone buying long term puts here
I don’t expect a straight down here. Too much bearishness is not good for the bears. I expect some kind of an up day and then a reversal over 1 or 2 days to show that some of these bulls buying on the dips are trapped. I have 25% short and 20% long. If it breaks major resistance of 1020 then I’ll buy long term puts.
Some interesting long term charts here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857
He called for a rebound in Feb/09.
This is the reason I frown when I see TA.. He is drawing tredlines and necklines where ever he pleases just to see whatever he wants to see.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A37808
Market gapped below some support friday but still sits between major support and resistance. Could go either way, not feeling warm and fuzzy but if I had to make a play for the rest of the year it would be long.
Hey crew. Shadow Trader’s video for this week is worth watching.
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday112909st.html