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30
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Follow me on Twitter: korenidan87
1:00pm
XLF also has a H&S formation on the 10 minute but it’s actually outperforming the markets today, for the first time.
12:49pm
Market showing more weakness, we do have some small H&S formations on a lot of stocks like AXP and USO 10 minute… we’ll see if we get a continued move to the downside. Gld was down now it’s flat… it’s still holding on.. my stops are around the 116 level just in case.
1:00am
Futures are up slightly after having been up 0.6-0.8%. Tomorrow is a key day. If we do see another push higher, then we might have to wait until 1120-1128 on the SPX to see the next stronger push lower, however as you can see below the dow jones daily shows us that we are in a topping pattern in the short term, and that a 3-4% down fall from here is more likely than trying to hit the resistance of the megaphone again:
On most of my fills, I got executed at the top of the day(in the AM).. so I hedged my portfolio with 1% of it with puts + sold calls.. I check back 2 hours later and the puts were up +20% while all my long positions were down.. Nevertheless I sold the 104 puts and since then they have depreciated -33%.
I have went very safe long and I will likely start scaling into more aggresive positions tomorrow(spy calls). Even then I’m still going to hedge myself with puts. My stops are at 1075. A 2% DD for what I think a 8% rally will occur. 4/1 odds. Being short also has great odds, if you cover at 1120.. however the reward is very slim for dec. in my books.
November 30th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Based on what action you have seen today,how likely do you think the S&P can go to 1120..?
November 30th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Cool – what did you enter today ?
Also, the SPY calls that you are planning to enter – Dec or Jan ?
sold 2000 UWM before the close @ 24.50, bought this AM at 23.50, don’t trust the market to hold anything overnight
I have a question for people who are good at understanding options. How could we say the option activity on AIG is bearish or bullish today?
Hi Guys,
I was playing with some short term Fibonacci (SPY 15 min). Currently I am in cash. Everything is pretty tied.
Some levels to look tomorrow:
- Calculating Fibonacci from previous top, before holiday: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8%. If it goes higher it will invalidate this count
- Calculating Fibonacci from Fridays’s top: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8% and came back almost to the same level. If it goes higher, probably it will run at least until 111 (138.2%). The next Fibonacci extension (161.8%) matches exactly previous top (before holiday)
Conclusion
- if it goes higher, it will only “kiss and goodbye” last top
November 30th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Sorry because it was wrong:
- Calculating Fibonacci from Fridays’s LOW: we retraced EXACTELY 61.8% and came back almost to the same level. If it goes higher, probably it will run at least until 111 (138.2%). The next Fibonacci extension (161.8%) matches exactly previous top (before holiday)
What does this mean – can you elaborate ?
All 2x/3x ETFs have had their margin requirements increased, both long and short.
November 30th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
they got cash ,?
I expect see a fake gap up tomorrow and then a quick reverse, although I have no evidence to prove my expectation. It is just my feeling.
November 30th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
That would be the ideal reversal and if it’s done with decent volume then we should hit below 1080 but we need a catalyst of some kind.
is anyone buying long term puts here
November 30th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
I don’t expect a straight down here. Too much bearishness is not good for the bears. I expect some kind of an up day and then a reversal over 1 or 2 days to show that some of these bulls buying on the dips are trapped. I have 25% short and 20% long. If it breaks major resistance of 1020 then I’ll buy long term puts.
Some interesting long term charts here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID369857
He called for a rebound in Feb/09.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:51 pm
This is the reason I frown when I see TA.. He is drawing tredlines and necklines where ever he pleases just to see whatever he wants to see.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A37808
Market gapped below some support friday but still sits between major support and resistance. Could go either way, not feeling warm and fuzzy but if I had to make a play for the rest of the year it would be long.
Hey crew. Shadow Trader’s video for this week is worth watching.
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/sunday112909st.html