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26
Nov
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12:45pm
Market is pushing up from it’s ABC correction earlier today, if it can clear 110.25… we can be in for another push higher… My stops lie around 110.50.. and something similar for my other shorts..
12:22pm
Market is about to close, but even if it closes at these levels, it doesn’t look that great for the bulls. I do believe we have more downside to go, the reason we got this rally was because the futures were so oversold. My guess is we at least touch the support of the megaphone in the next week or so, which is 3-4% lower from where we are.
11:44am
Spy 120 minute shows the megaphone formation… i’m not sure if the move up from the 2.5% drop is a bull trap or a bear trap, but I do believe we are going to be aiming for the support very soon:
11:31am
We have seen significant pushes up from the start of the day, many people i know already got stopped out with profits and are willing to go short yet again. I suggest you have stops with profits, if you’re in DZZ and entered it at 12, you better have a stop at around 12.20 for some profit.
12:24am
Futures are to the downside quite significantly. This will be very interesting, it looks like the megaphone i have had for the last 2-3 weeks has been working out very nicely.
Idan: Hey guys, i’m back from my business trip. Markets are closed today for thanksgiving and will be open until 1pm tomorrow. I wanted to say that while i was away I was still keeping track of the markets, and every once in a while I would point out different positions that I was going into. I wanted to go ahead and give you a breakdown of my portfolio as of last night:
Short GLD at 116.60 (37% of portfolio)
Short AMZN at 133.20(7% of portfolio)
Short AXP 42.10 (12% of portfolio)
Short SPY at 110.80 (10% of portfolio)
These are all pretty big positions to the downside, but I still have some cash to add to my shorts as I believe a strong correction of at least 5% to as high as 20% on the SPY is coming, and one of at least 10% in gold is close. I understand the frustration in waiting for this to happen, but we have hit my targets yesterday and so I believe it’ll happen sooner rather than later. If you want to hedge yourself.. you can buy some out of the money calls, i bought the december SPY 115 (very small position around 1%) but shorted 2% of the SPY 113 Jan calls. I will have a video up sometime soon!
Welcom back
what do u think about Dubai news impact on US market?
November 26th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
Ditto. Same question. And looking forward to a catch-up vid.
Welcome back…that is conviction. GLTU and lets see how things play out tomorrow. I am looking to enter the market with my own money so a 200+ down day will give me some courage to enter.
BTW didnt the DUBIA news come out when the market was open on Wednesday? I remember they were talking on cnbc…a late reaction maybe
Dow 10,236.00 -206.00 -1.97
S&P 500 1,083.90 -25.00 -2.25
NASDAQ 100 1,747.75 -46.50 -2.59
The theoretical 21-trading day bottom is December 1st, 2009.
The bears need to push the market below 1029 (previous low on Nov02) BY DEC1ST/2009 to confirm a trend change.
November 26th, 2009 at 9:39 pm
They (bears) are going to have to push hard if the deadline is 12/21. EOY buying by the institutions wil be buying the dips.
November 26th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
just re-read your post. 1029 by December 1st. Hmmm. Does not seem feasible with everyone and everything furiously buying the dips.
November 26th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Tomorrow I hope the bears push the market down as it is easier on lower trading volume days. We’ll see what happens. I can’t recall when the S&P gapped down >2% in the past 4 months
November 26th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
May see that dollar short squeeze.
November 26th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Zee – can you share some thoughts on how you are planning to unload some of your short positions ….
Also, how are you planning to go long on Dec 1st assuming that 1029 is held … will this be similar to the Nov 2nd low based on your analysis ?
November 27th, 2009 at 5:36 am
The December 1 date is a high probability date where the market will bottom. I am unloading all my shorts today within the first 30 minutes.
My UUP trade (33% of my portfolio) did not make money and I am just trying to flat (the $USD took a 1% large hit this Monday but it is recovering today).
The other 33% of my portfolio is SPY shorts which I will also cover.
And, I have a bit of puts at 108SPY which will be sold at the open too.
I do think we have another 1-3% correction left, so I will wait until Tuesday of next week to go long. Unless of course Monday brings us below 1029.
Holy s@#$!!! Just got in from the Thanksgiving day festivities and see the futures getting hammered. If things stay this way until the open my portfolio will feel some huge pain. Got greedy on Wed. and held my longs thinking Friday would be up…looks like I was wrong. red red red everywhere I look (Europe, Asia, Oil). Congrats to all the shorts out there…looks like you will be rewarded tomorrow. Still some time for a recovery before open..not holding my breath though….we will see how it plays out. My own fault for getting piggy.
Welcome back Idan!!!!
s&P futures now below 1080ish support level.
This could be the rest of the world sticking it to the U.S. Get off the ship first while Wall Street has to sit on their hands for Turkey Day. Just saw futures drop below 1080. Considering this mess started with our banks, perhaps payback has begun.
agreed. Monday is end of month. PAINT-THE-TAPE!
November 27th, 2009 at 5:28 am
IMO I would at least wait until 10:00 before buying any calls.
Especially on a day like this, where markets can easily be pushed ‘down’, or ‘up’. GL.
haha wow. now i’m regretting not holding my puts at EOD lol. I would’ve made a fortune on my huge SPY position, but it’s ok. Move on to the next trade. we’ll see what resistance area we hit at open. happy thanksgiving everyone!
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FUTURES
Dow 10,119.00 -323.00 -3.09%
S&P 500 1,067.20 -41.70 -3.76%
NASDAQ 100 1,724.50 -69.75 -3.89%
Oil 73.92 -4.04 -5.18%
Gold 1,150.60 -38.00 -3.20%
Natural Gas 5.04 -0.12 -2.30%
EQUITY INDEXES
Nikkei 9,081.52 -301.72 -3.22%
Topix 811.01 -18.55 -2.24%
Hang Seng 21,144.42 -1,065.99 -4.80%
DJStoxx 600 239.85 -8.11 -3.27%
FTSE 100 5,194.13 -170.68 -3.18%
DAX 30 5,614.17 -188.85 -3.25%
CAC 40 3,679.23 -129.93 -3.41%
Bloomberg, ca. 2:55am EST
November 27th, 2009 at 5:23 am
S&P futures were down 41 points at 3:00AM!! WOW!! THAT IS INSANE!!
They recovered 14 points in the last 2 hours.. that really sucks.. I would of loved a -4% in the s&p.. Imagine if no buyers came in and pushed the market higher from 3:00AM till opening.. We would have had a real ‘Black Friday’.
These gaps are amazing. The market has recently been dead (C used to have an average trading volume of 1 billion shares, now it trades 100 million.. FNM 200 million now it trades 10 million).
GOLD1159.5 down 27.50 points -2.32%
November 27th, 2009 at 7:29 am
SOMEbody was up at about 2:30 pulling the levers:
http://i45.tinypic.com/2ilftld.png
Gold down 4%
November 27th, 2009 at 6:54 am
Here, do your own charts:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html
http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/November2509Gold.pdf
(Look on jsmineset.com for Dan Norcini’s latest gold chart)
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?GLD,GDX,GDX:GLD,HGU.TO,SLV,GLD:SLV,HGD.TO,DZZ,DGP
(Right-click on any of the mini-charts to open a separate window with four larger charts for the item on the mini-chart)
Interesting futures action for sure. Down 317.00 then up to only -209 and now -217. I’ve been 100% short for coming up on 5 full trading weeks, and am down about 5%, but hold several 2x and 3x bear etf’s. Hoping for a 2% plus drop today, which might put me in the green again for the first time in a couple weeks. Will be tempted to take some off the table if I’m in the green early, but I just have a strong feeling that we’ll have some follow through on Monday. What do you guys think? I feel that unless we close near the high of the day, then we’re going down further. Like to see a close near the low of the day. Love to see 3% down across the board as well.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:39 am
If you are green, I would take some 2x/3x bear etfs off the table for cash or exchange it for a 1x inverse ETF. GL.
November 27th, 2009 at 5:44 am
Much appreciated Zee, that seems like sound advice. I will seriously consider doing so, but it might be tough for me if we blast through several levels of support quickly and are still going down at noon est. We’ll see what happens, but I appreciate the advice a lot., and hope you make some big money today!
Good morning all and welcome back Idan..Can anyone tell me if there will be any after-hours trading today beyond the 1:00pm close>..Thanks
Word is the European feds pumped capital into their banks to lessen the Dubai blow. Our fed likely will do the same? Meanwhile, investors moving into the dollar which could result in the much talked about $ short squeeze. Oil, gold, commodities being negatively affected by the carry trade. Many mixed signals. So much for the cute Black Friday coverage. Is turning out to be a fascinating day.
Congrats to the shorts. I missed this correction. Got greedy and thought the SPX will go to 1120. Live and learn
I closed all of my long positions (600 ERX, 2000 UCO, and 200 GDX) on Wednesday. I hope that anyone who followed me into those trades also followed me out. I enter the day with the 1000 ERY that I bought near the close on Wednesday, the 1500 DZZ that I’ve had for a few weeks, and the 4000 QID that I’ve been holding for some time. My plan is to close the ERY today (since it was intended to be a shorter term trade) but to continue holding the QID and DZZ longer term. I do not plan to do anything on the long side until I see how the market responds on Monday. Best of luck to all today!
November 27th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Yeah, now we get to play chicken with the tops in our triple shorts:
ERY
Nov. 25, 2009 Market Close: $ 10.98
Pre-Market Last: $ 11.95
DRV
Nov. 25, 2009 Market Close: $ 16.94
Pre-Market Last: $ 18.50
DRV was as high as 19.43 this a.m. maybe I should have bailed then, but he charts of DRV and $DJUSRE look like $20 to $24 could happen, or even a lot better if an H&S top forms and breaks downside in $DJUSRE (levered -3x by DRV):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSRE
Static annotated chart:
http://i45.tinypic.com/15fp1d3.png
ERY might be a good hold here, too. Toppish patterns in $DJUSEN (levered -3x by ERY) are recurring that are similar to those that previously heralded downside in energy stocks, some of it severe:
http://i47.tinypic.com/wvr8tg.png
I agree that it is probably safe to stay short over the weekend and wise not to get too long in the face of what might be a top of a bear-market rally rolling over into a long slide. My accounts can’t day-trade, so I may tighten stops here so as to be lurking with cash when overall market direction becomes more apparent (if it does).
November 27th, 2009 at 8:57 am
Thanks for the info! I haven’t been following DRV but I will definitely put it on my radar screen now.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:58 am
An interesting set of charts:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?ERY,FAZ,DRV,FAZ:ERY,FAZ:DRV,ERY:DRV
Do you guys think that this sell off could continue into Monday where as today should be light volume and a short trading day?
November 27th, 2009 at 7:44 am
Yes. This unwind has a broad base and so will affect a broad base- = more than a three dy event.
My stops will be hittin’ today!
November 27th, 2009 at 7:36 am
I’ve seen futures markets do all sorts of nasty things. It looks like the bears took advantage of Thanksgiving, who was trading futures yesterday?
They’ll probably take advantage of today too, even with a short day. Markets close at 1PM EST.
Blowing out of DZZ pre-market which was picked up Weds at 12.04. Thanks Idan! Also picked up 15 Dec 22.5 VIX calls which will hold a few days or 28 VIX. Will be selling naked TBT 43 puts 45 calls Dec.
Morris,
I appreciate your decision to close your UCO at 3.20 Wednesday afternoon. I followed your lead and left the table with a nice profit. Congrats on your decision to then quickly go long in ERY. I was contemplating doing the same, but thought after my nice profit in UCO I would step aside for a couple days. You might have to start a newsletter! I think I will wait until Monday morning to see where oil is at. I think crude is a good buy for a long term hold into Christmas at $72-73.
Zee, I am very interested in your posts about your cycle work. I know you were roughed up by Kramer/Palladin yesterday and you should ignore those posts.
November 27th, 2009 at 8:51 am
Thanks! I’m so glad that the trade worked out for you. I’m worried that some people held UCO in the hopes that it was on the verge of a bigger breakout to the upside. Best of luck to you today!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:23 am
Hey Morris,
I should have “seriously” considered to just follow you, that could save me a lot of time and money. I am so glad that I have also held some SDS and SH. Any thoughts on oil? GLTU.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:28 am
I mentioned on Wednesday that I thought oil would break out of the oscillatory pattern to the downside and it is happening today. I will wait to see if a new pattern emerges before returning to the UCO/SCO trade.
Ha, stll waiting for the folgers to kick in. Closed UCO at $13.20 and ERY is, of course, a bear. I thought about buying late Wednesday when it hovered below $11.00 with crude at $78 but was uncomfortable holding over Thanksgiving.
This market is a detacted from reality, now the Dubai event – pushes the longs to take profit taking before year end to protect their numbers. Black Friday is not going to be impressive, lots of people but lack of volume and margins will have an affect. I see a 15-18 percent correction basicially until the week of Xmas, then a 2-3 percent year end rally.
Market will trap the “buy the dip crowd” this time.
————- OIL ———— IM STILL LONG THIS BUT …. its only 5% of my positions and the other 95% are short everything under the sun. i bailed on my TZA the other day but 100 shares. oh well. all of my puts added up to -1.2% as of last trading days close. looks like that will change as all of them … INCLUDING PCLN are getting movement pre-market.
————- DUBAI ———– tried to do things the American way X2 and now they are paying for it. and they handled it the same way for months too . “nothings wrong” “go away” and even went as far as telling the media to “shut up” just a few weeks ago. now it is apparent that they need a bailout of thier own and have recieved it from someone who is now re-organising the businesss. this is just brief synopsis… you can read all about the rapid rise of dubai and now the fall out and bail out.
————– GOLD ——— i have a few hundred shares of HGD.TO and this is a clear case of plug your ears , cover your eyes, trust the charts. anything like this or IBM or PCLN that move up in a parabolic way have alot of buyers chasing “quick bucks”. these buyers are not investors and parabolic moves usually end up with wicked corrections as those short term fast buck grabbers exit quickly. this is my take on the move in any stock based on high emotion and rapid fire parabolic moves.
———1085———- the last swing low that we must close below to truly make this “the correction” imo. if we blow through 1085 with volume ill be convinced we are heading lower over the next week.
———— OIL ————— lost its flag ………….. if this is any indicator for the market. this one has already lost its bullish pattern . it remains bullish looking on the daily with a close above $73.25. under that… it’s out of bed.
—————– FUTURES LOWER ON DUBAI WORRIES —————– how convenient for the American Media. the market should have corrected long ago. but now they can blame a whole other country for the market coming back to earth and close to a fair value. those dam oil tycoons of the Middle East !! ruining our little bull market party . BOMB THEM!
GS is right at the 135 R.
Have any of you found a site that lists USA banks most affected by Dubai? Reuters ran some generic coverage and mentioned GS but not the extent to wh/ GS is involved.
Sold all my long oil yesterday…thank god!
What a bloodbath today.
Looks like we’re going to have a great chance to go long soon!
November 27th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Gap lower open successful que buyers
Thx Idan for the DZZ
November 27th, 2009 at 11:52 am
thank god I have trailing stops, out at 12.90
Reasons (besides the chart of $DJUSEN: http://i47.tinypic.com/wvr8tg.png) not to load up on energy stocks and/or commodities:
I see green grass outside.
Flowers from my yard are in a vase upstairs.
I haven’t worn a parka since last winter.
The ice fishermen are looking frustrated.
The ski hill on the outskirts of town can’t make snow.
This is not remarkable in many places, but I happen to live in Wisconsin.
People are buying Priuses and Insights, and otherwise thinking green. I saw about 1000 more big wind turbines on the prairies of MN and IA during this trip down south to a reunion than last time.
Politicians are still politicians, but the oil companies do have fewer friends in Washington than they did for many years. Also, even politicians and others normally given to short-term thinking, if they think at all, are starting to associate energy waste with flag-draped coffins.
starting a position in UCO 1000 @ 12.00
———— IBM ————— opened right at the 20ma on the daily chart….may take profits
———–PCLN ————– is still $17 above the 20ma… stretched out big time
——— PBI ——— trading below the lower BB …. sickly looking
——–UAUA——— holding the falling 40ma…………….. im adding short
———-OIL———— holding steady to remain bullish on my daily charts. ….. adding long
———BAC———– now trading below the 20ma …………staying with these puts.
November 27th, 2009 at 9:52 am
HOU.TO …. in at $8.55
UAUA added short at $7.07 …………… my average $7.20
SOLD my straggling 100 TZA. .. wasnt supposed to be in my account
SOLD HGD.TO … underperforming. expected more out of it today.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:15 am
richard,
where do you see BAC going in the next week or so.
whats your plans on BAC?
Anybody want to help me fill this gap before going lower?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:45 am
Ben? You there? PPT? anyone?
November 27th, 2009 at 9:45 am
As soon as you fill the four gaps you left from the 666 bottom..
November 27th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Word of caution – Filling this gap may recover the lost GBP channel. USD/JPY also has a rising wedge going. While I would be shocked to end green today the idea of a massive sell off may not be in the cards either.
————- PBI ————– NOW +58% on this position. taking profits on half
Idan, how far do you think DZZ can go this time?
Morris, waiting on your next signal. I was able to sold UCO after you on wednesday. I still have SCO from long time ago. wonder when should I sold this.
Thank you both & every great trader on this blog for the tips.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:06 am
I don’t plan on doing much today. I may close the ERY position that I opened on Wednesday afternoon. I’m still in holiday mode!
Conspiracy theorists- do you think they’d let the market crap out on the biggest shopping day of the year? I personally don’t believe that anyone controls this market, but there you have it.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:03 am
SPY resistance is at 110. That’s as far as I think they can take it.
just bot boat loads of spx calls….think we fill the entire gap before 1pm!
November 27th, 2009 at 10:11 am
you want to list strikes/prices or do you just want to keep pumping?
GBP has regained it’s channel. JPY finding resistance . EUR hit support and is bouncing north.
Going to have to continue to urge caution to those thinking this event is going to spark a big correction.
so many gret buys! but nervous to get in…wil wait till EOD
November 27th, 2009 at 10:16 am
with you on that. eyeing some spy calls
————— BAC ————- finding support at the 20ma. this one im watching closely. i may bail for a nice quick 21% …………………. but if the bid starts getting hammered ill stay in it.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:19 am
thanks…i’m hanging on too
November 27th, 2009 at 10:20 am
IBM and BAC are similar in they both gapped below the 20ma and now have barely regained it. BAC is now struggling to hold it. i dunno. I DONT LIKE MONDAYS. MONDAYS have not been friendly to the bears. the weekend is devoted to charting by BULLS and they seem to come out gunnin MONDAY mornings for the ALL YOU CAN EAT BULL CRAP BUFFET
November 27th, 2009 at 10:42 am
richard,
i agree with you too..however, monday is end of month trading. might there be a get rid of the losers and buy some cheapo’s??/ i dunnoo, BAC hasn’t done anything while the market made new highs, might the funds dump some BAC ??
just a thought
——— UAUA ———– i might just switch sides on this one. support is coming in and hte chart looks more like a good long than short.
November 27th, 2009 at 10:27 am
SKIP THAT….. take a look at the weekly chart bear flag. but the indicators say buy. this one is sending out mixed messages. no volume on this move.
Not a good sign for the bears here the C one of the weakest banks hsan’t even managed to lose it’s daily bull trend line over this. I hate to be in the bullish camp but I don’t think this event is enough to counter the diving dollar.
heading out to take my daughter shopping; sell order in on ERY @ 12.00.
/ES has retraced roughly 61.8 from 1111 to 1067 and SPY is approaching the “P2″ trendline at 110 and may attempt to regain.
The bears need to do something about it or this will end up being a non-event. I am still long and trapped, but almost back to break even from this rise.
currently sitting on an SPY call position. there could be some resistance at the 1096 level.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Woo – where did you go long ?
——- STEP OUT FOR 20MINUTES —— 1095 WOW
did someone not post futures at 1060s this morning. what a move!
All I can take away from this amazing day so far is that we are likely in a topping process. Look how quickly they panic and pull their money out of the markets. I think we are going to have a wild time in the coming year.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:08 am
SPY and others regained their P2 trendline.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Now we’ve lost our upward channel and the SPY is back below. Whee.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:28 am
I think we will close right around these levels.
if 1098 doesn’t hold, i’m going to sell my calls.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:12 am
sold my calls. market might drop. lots of flares south.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:13 am
bought 2.55 sold at 2.78
———- TRADING ACCOUNT FROZEN ———– had a stop in place for my HOD that i forgot about . once i realised it was there i went to cancel it and my account would not accept my trading password. tried another order the same. now i see half my oil position removed and i was unable to get out of my IBM and PCLN puts for profit. now i have to phone my broker and see what is gonig on. just hilarious.
November 27th, 2009 at 11:18 am
system wide glitch at scotiaitrade.com …. so they are not out just to get me
November 27th, 2009 at 11:23 am
I was able to log into my account a few seconds ago at scottrade.
————- HOPEFULLY EVERYONE HERE ————- knew better than to chase that move. ive made that mistake once before and it can give you a sideache in the bank account.
the big question now is……… now what. what are they going to throw at us next.
———– IBM ————- im out at break even. had a nice 12% gain there when i wanted out and the trading froze. but i wanted out so that is what im doing now.