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25
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3:04pm
Idan: Gold has finally reached my target today, i’m taking a sizable chunk short GLD here, some of my friends bought some DZZ around the $12 area. The SPY is forming a high base, for another potential last shoot higher… that’s where you place more shorts… I do believe we will see the SPY start to correct by the beginning of next week.
Woo:
Market is up a good amount in futures. That takes us above that pink trend line. The pink trend line was never really that strong. I’m expecting the 50ma and 200ma to cross soon on this 5 minute chart. We could just see a rise up to the 1115 area on Wednesday, but we might see a slight rise, and then a dip to meet the 50/200ma.
That trend line above the pink trend line is high enough that we really could see that 1122 number by tomorrow, or even the day after. If you are bear you have to be willing to hold through a rise to 1122 over the course of the next 5 trading days or so. We’ll see if we dip once more before hitting 1122.
All up day, blog I cannot find now showed historical info on markets dropping couple % if VIX, Oil, Gold, Bonds, SPX, DJ are all up the same day. That drop should occur within 2 days of this all up day. This happened last week and sure enough Thursday was down good amount. VIX is flat but all else is up so wondering if any one else follows this. Am out UCO. Looking to short AXP again, PEP, KO, AMZN.
November 25th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
The VIX is red.
November 25th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
but slightly, wondering if close enough with the distribution occurring between the other areas
November 25th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Here is the link to Cobra’s blog:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
out of ERX @ 42.00
bought 300 ERX @ 44.00 on 11/19
bought 300 ERX @ 40.00 on 11/24
sold 600 ERX @ 42.00 today (flat since my average was 42.00)
However, I bought the first shares before the distribution date so I will receive $1394.70 (4.649 per share) on the 30th. The total investment was $25200.00 so this amounts to a profit of 5.53% on the trade.
morris, would you hold UCO? or would you consider selling it?
November 25th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I already sold @ 13.20 (see the post on page 1).
November 25th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
ok, thanks. i closed mine just now.
MACD crossing over on the UCO 10 minute chart, calling it a day at 13.24 on the remaining 1K
— MUST CLOSE ABOVE 1110 …. I CAN DO IT .. YES I CAN … prove to the world that America is home of the Strong and Free under the guise of Corporatism/Scamism.
November 25th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
NOV 17 1110.32 closing price. my guess is we close above that and have a muted follow through. rotating back to energy to do it. inflation station.
Idan would you mind put at charts off gold……thanks
anyone thinking about Dec. VIX calls before the close?
November 25th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
VIX IS GREEEN…………….big boys buying some puts?
November 25th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
VIX calls have a ton of premium in them. if you think VIX will suddenly shoot higher you can win at that game. if we trade sideways they erode quickly. im not a fan of VIX options.
November 25th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
it’s crazy. check out IV between puts and calls. also check out volume on possible Dec. 27.5/32.5 call spread
November 25th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
I think the VIX hit a 15-month low earlier today and it looks flat right now.
—– PCLN —- gonig to close on its high on about 35% of normal daily volume ….wowsa
I will close the small GDX position that I opened yesterday @ 51.00 if it hits 53.00 today.
i do trade a lot of options but have yet to trade an option on the ultras,,,,can anyone pls shed some light? obviously the vol is crazy high due to the underlying band….
Sitting on huge gains from gold and euros. Anyone else struggling wether to sell?
Can the dollar keep going down? Woo….any words of advice? Somebody?
November 25th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Read the advice at the top of the page; Idan is starting to short gold here.
November 25th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Thanks!
November 25th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
boy this is a REALLY hard one….
a lot of people are talking about inflation and gold dropping. but there’s also another camp that is talking about deflation happening first. i think there is like 300-400 trillion in credit debt that the US has overall, and there’s the 10 trillion overall debt. basically people are saying we are going to make up more in that 300 trillion credit debt, than we are building up in the overall extra 1 trillion we put in as stimulus. also india bought tons of gold, i think other countries are going to follow suit. i think gold is more of a limited resource at the moment and in the highest demand than any other commodity. so even though people are talking about gold bubble, im thinking that gold isn’t bubbling at all. it could just truly be in huge demand, with limited supply and has the chance to go a LOT higher than where it is now.
now i haven’t charted the dollar OR gold, so i don’t know the long term projections and can’t give a good assessment. but just some things to think about long and short term.
if you’re up huge i would say to raise your stops to a sustainable area, and just keep trailing your stops.
November 25th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
Societe Generale from Europe has said that they believe that gold will hit $6300/oz in the next 2-3 years due to the strong pull back of the dollar. They also believe that the recovery is relying too much on the stimulus funds and that in the next 2 years they predit that at the very least the markets will test the March/2009 lows. I don’t see them holding a crystal ball but all things considered I wouldn’t feel secure holding anything long other than gold, in the long run.
i might just get out of my puts today haha. not worth the risk of holding. we shall see… hoping for more drop into closing. 1107 is a good target area for me, but don’t mind locking in profits sooner.
1000 ERY @ 11.00
November 25th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Hey Morris,
I hate being on the other sides of your trades. You have a very good track record on picking directions of oil. Still holding my UCO shares, I am hoping for $40.5 on USO. Good luck and happy Thanksgiving
November 25th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
I guess 40.50 on USO would be in the 13.90 to 14.00 range on UCO; it could happen but I feel pretty good about my UCO exit today at 13.20. I almost pulled the trigger on some SCO around 13.40 near the end of the day but I got distracted. Good luck to you and have a great holiday!
November 25th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Morris – what made you want to do this … if you were playing the channel then the channel top is at 40 ….
November 25th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Anjali,
I never said that I was trading a channel. I don’t have a chart with lines drawn on it. I said that I was trading an oscillatory pattern. This is why I am not the person to ask when looking for the best entry and exit targets for these trades although I am good at being on the right side of the trade (20 for 21 now on these UCO/SCO trades since early August).
I closed my UCO position today for a number of reasons. When I opened it yesterday, I intended it to be a short term trade (no more than a few days) so I was looking to close it either today or Friday. Also, I was up $1000.00 on the trade when it hit 13.20 today (which I think is great for an overnight flip). So, my expectations were met and I shut it down.
Another issue is the general health of the market. If oil is going to run upwards from here, isn’t the market going to need to run with it? I don’t envision oil going up while the market goes down. The market looks weak to me right now and I don’t plan to do any more UCO trades until I see some new strength on the green side or a decent downward correction.
I know that a number of you believe that oil is about to break out of this pattern to the upside and it could definitely happen that way. However, I think it is going to break out of the pattern to the downside.
Have a nice holiday and thanks for all the great posts!
November 25th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
Anjali, it might not hit the top of the channel everytime UCO moves up. As long as it stays inside the channel, moving up or down is hard to tell. It may move to the bottom of the channel again before heading up. I am leaning towards upward movements this time around as crude oil didn’t touch $80 level today (most of the time it hits $80 or higher before headed down). What do you think?
November 25th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
Morris,
I was tempted to close half of my positions on UCO too. I am holding some shorts ETFs (SDS, SRS and SH), I am using UCO as a hedge to my shorts positions. GLTU.
i’m watching but still comfortable with the longs into friday…..think the holiday sales will surprise on the upside. my girlfriend is on a shopping spree!!!
I think most traders remember thanksgiving week last year, the S and P gained 100 pts drifting higher on low volume, then a crash on Monday. Idan may be right about a leg down next week, but it bothers me that so many are looking for the top at 1120. If I had the ability to move the market, I would push the market down on Monday, then force it back up to trap the shorts – then let it rip down once the shorts have capitulated, somewhere north of 1130. I am going to take a wait and see approach, hold most in cash to see how this plays out.
sold 200 GDX @ 52.87 (up 3.67% from my entry yesterday @ 51.00); +$374.00
small DZZ position at 11.99, just for a trade
———- RUN THOSE PRINTING PRESSES ——— an emergency eltronic print of USD to get the SPX to beat the NOV 17 closing high by a whopping $0.20
November 25th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
look at the EURO PRINT …. 1.5139 … off to the races
broke even on my spy put trade. not going to hold overnight. too much risk. good day all! =)
GOLD…..
I’m in disbelief.
November 25th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
why is that???
———- THE GOLD TRADE ———– here is a great chart to look at OSK.TO monster mine for mini company. put your stockchart on weekly view. look at the volume on the left of the low compared to the trading volume since this stock hit its low. AMAZING. now how come no one was telling me to buy this stock NOV last year? shame on you all!
I’ve closed 5 trades so far this week (with all entries and exits posted here in real time):
11/19 – bought 200 FAS @ 76.00
11/23 – sold 200 FAS @ 79.00 (+3.95%, +$600.00)
11/19 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.30
11/20 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.00
11/23 – sold 2000 UCO @ 13.78 (+4.79%, +$1260.00)
11/24 – bought 1000 UCO @ 12.85 and 1000 UCO @ 12.55
11/25 – sold 2000 UCO @ 13.20 (+3.94%, +$1000.00)
11/19 – bought 300 ERX @ 44.00
11/20 – distribution = +1394.70 (4.649 per share)
11/24 – bought 300 ERX @ 40.00
11/25 – sold 600 ERX @ 42.00 (+5.53%, +$1394.70)
11/24 – bought 200 GDX @ 51.00
11/25 – sold 200 GDX @ 52.87 (+3.67%, +$374.00)
Total profits = $4628.70
Have a great Thanksgiving!
November 25th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
There should have been an SCO trade in between the two UCO trades but I got tied up with family stuff (the kids are out of school this week). I may look for an entry into SCO on Friday morning.
Happy Thanksgiving to all
Gold was supposed to reach $2000 by the end of 2009, I guess now that move just started. There is big H&S pattern in play and we recently broke the neckline. This H&S could easily take gold to around 1300 very quick. I guess once we hit 1300 there will be a correction and then move to $2000 will start. There is no fundamental reason to see dollar get strength any time soon, so Gold could basicly keeps going up especially when you see a lot of countries would like to keep Gold as reserve currency.
November 25th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
yeah, I think these guys shorting gold are playing with fire, a very hot fire.
The evilspeculator has the next strong dollar resistance down around 73.88. I’m wondering if this week will be another island reversal with a big drop come Monday. Historically Mondays after Thanksgiving are down days per the blog on a Cobra blog site (forgot the name). Happy Thanksgiving.
November 25th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
I meant to say 73.88 was the next strong support level per evilspeculator.
November 25th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Per http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/
the Euro broke above an ascending triangle with the text book target much higher. Anyone know if this would correspond with 73.88 for the dollar?
However they also state “when ISEE Indices & ETFs only index > 100, 19 out of 25 times (76%)” a red day either next day or next next day.
Any educated guesses as to whats up with the option activity on KO. The 52.5 and 55 calls saw huge volume. My guess is KO going to fall under 55 before Dec expiration?
thanks
Bullish day. If we close flat or higher Friday it is quite bullish for the rest of the year based on my chart of the SPY. What I’d like to see is the SPY form a bearish rising wedge-
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/20091125spychart-1?context=album&albumId=2348194%3AAlbum%3A36498
Happy Thanksgiving!
Sitting Short the dollar now. Market held green and I expect follow through on Friday. Inflation is going to be the watchword of 2010. The onyl question now is when will rising inflation be considered bad by the market.
Happy Thanksgiving to you all. Enjoy your time with your loved ones and please do thank-who ever you beleive in- for giving us the opportunity to enjoy life and friends.
I wish AXP sink sooner….
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving
To my fellow Canadians, we still have work + school, hahaha!
Futures down over 100pts over Dubai woes roil financial markets
Stocks fall and government bonds rise on flight to quality..
This could be the catalyst for the correction.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dubai-woes-roil-financial-markets-2009-11-26
November 26th, 2009 at 9:11 am
London Stock Exchange shares down 4.2%
November 26th, 2009 at 9:41 am
I show it down about 2%.
November 26th, 2009 at 9:45 am
US Dow Futures down 132….dollar will rally tomorrow. Crowded trade could mean a very strong short squeeze.
November 26th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Whew, I’m glad that I closed all of my long positions on Wednesday!
November 26th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Morris check this out
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lse?countrycode=uk
November 26th, 2009 at 10:07 am
You know that is a company and not a stock index, right?
November 26th, 2009 at 10:14 am
Yes I know that it is a company,but the LSE’s biggest shareholder is Borse Dubai, which holds a stake of around 20% in London Stock Exchange..
November 26th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Thanks for posting the information. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the US futures between now and the open tomorrow. S&P futures down over 20 points as I type this.
TIme for turkey!
November 26th, 2009 at 10:11 am
That being said, the FTSE is down about 2.5% right now. Tomorrow should be very interesting.
November 26th, 2009 at 10:15 am
I wonder though with alot of big hedge fund traders off tomorrow will we
get the volume needed to really impact the market or will it have to wait until Monday?
dubai = european banks = trigger for next crash? uh oh…..
November 26th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Hey Bullish bear happy thanksgiving,are you becoming a bear or still be long or be wrong?
————– WHOA ————- something had to give sooner or later. these charts were to the moon. this idea that the market went up the day before thanksgiving last year may be enough to trap alot of traders complacent to hold large positions into Friday trade. Good job Morris…. not being one of them. we have seen ASIA down alot before only for US markets to hold thier own ridiculous gains. hopefully this means the market pulls back to fair levels and we can be buyers of something longer term. No holiday for us today.
im still long HOD.TO and im short one Canadian Retailer SC.TO.
our Canadian market is down 1.6%
Could this be the perfect storm set up? All this news about Dubai the uk sellling off,US futures tanking,extreme worry before black Friday.If all this translates into disapointing retail sales tomorrow it could get messy on Monday.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Futures still look in trouble as of 0900 mountain time. Agree that retail sales may be the make-it-or-break-it tomorrow. Considered going long EOD Wed swatching the market continuing to inch up thru the day. Whew.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:09 am
swatching?
November 26th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Freudian Slip… now we all know you want a nice new European Watch in your stocking this Xmas.
November 26th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
sigh. How did you know? Is your ST name really Richard (santa)?
Notice they published the new 3x ETF margin requirements Wednesday afternoon.
If Bull ETFs are down 10% or more from Wednesday close to Monday, I think lots of people will be getting margin calls, driving the market down further.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:28 am
ETF’s dont drive markets.———
Institutional Orders DRIVE MARKETS.
I traded C 3 months ago, and S&P was rebalancing their index and they had to buy 100million shares of C at the close. It shot up 4% from 3:59:59 to 4:03:00. The average trader at my firm made $1,000 in 2 minutes of work. That’s an institutional order.
Although those who bought these ETF’s will likely face margin requirements, I am not so sure it will have even a slight impact on the financial sector in general.
S&P futures and gold are both trading for around the same price: 1082-3
About time!! I’ve been calling for the correction since Nov 16, and I received a lot of criticism of going short and that I was going to go bust. Ha!
I have 83% of a 333,000$ portfolio short, with UUP, Spy Puts, Spy Shorts, and VXX long
CAN’T WAIT to rake in HUGE.. I’m likely to cover my puts and trade them for VXX on Friday.
If you go back to Pg 1., of todays comments you see me saying:
zee replied:
November 25th, 2009 at 6:43 am
lol, all the market makers need to do is to shove this market back to 1040 and screw all the longs.
Honestly, this was an easy set-up. Tops usually take 3-5 trading days to occur so dumb retails can go long, thinking the market is going to 1150.. Do I think we’re going to new lows… no.. but a big correction of 10-15% is just around the corner (maybe not this month, but in 1-2 months).
Longs are screwed. Imagine if retails sell on Friday. Not only is it a low-volume day, but any big hedge fund could bet against stocks and drive every thing down because of lack of liquidity, boy we could see -3-6% downday (this will unlikely happen as the PPT will come in and buy stocks). I would love to see volatility pick-up; however this is all me dreaming. I believe we’ll get down to the 1040-1070 to finally have one last leg up for the year.
I stressed so many times long was not the way to go come Nov 16th.——–… don’t want to say told ya so.. but I told ya so.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Good stuff Zee…I was going to sell all my Bearish ETF’s on Wednesday but decided to hold on to them !!! I hope it proves to be the right move it seems like a huge gap up in 3X bear funds tomorrow.Do you see us going back to 1040 then a rally to possibly 1150 by years end?..Thanks Happy T-day ….:-)
November 26th, 2009 at 11:38 am
I’m not sure where were heading, as I have yet to see Friday’s market action (if it is very bearish (-5%) it could mean a trend change, if it gaps down 2% and rallies after.. it is likely just a normal correction).
Being that we are in a minute cycle correction phase, I do not believe this is P3 or a trend reversal. I think it will just be a normal correction of a couple of percent that will take us to the mid 1050s by Decemeber 1st. If we hold 1050 by December 1st it’s time to go long again until EOY.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Thanks Zee..
November 26th, 2009 at 11:39 am
If what you say is true it’s a great time to go LONG.
That’s my trade.
November 26th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
——— 1085 ————— THE LAST CYLCE low of this uptrend. a close below this number on Friday is a catalyst for trend change. next stop on the chart is to test the 1030-40 area. im keeping my puts till then. with OPEX schedule we can expect this reversal to go on until about a week before OPEX and have a nice rally shake out of the shorts. going to do my best to hold these positions ive taken until 1038 hits. I’ll shed some and hedge others with SPY calls.
I find it interesting everyone is forcasting doom and gloom and the market isn’t even open.
The dollar didn’t even bounce hard and everyone is calling a top. Heck in the USD/JPY it barely even twitched. GBP and EUR are where all this move happened and its already starting to correct itself again. EUR went down and just now bounced back up off the 61.8% fib. If this holds and it goes up from here we are right back to square one tomorrow when the market opens.
There is a whole nother day of Euro trading to correct what happened last night. I wouldn’t count on disaster tomorrow just yet.
November 26th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Party Pooper…LOL
November 26th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
think all the buzz is about a possible $80 billion dollar default spread around the banks of the world. it just seems to be one thing after another. but, you are certainly right. the market has digested all the bad news it can eat. maybe it will digest this one too.
im not hoping for doom and gloom as it upsets my stomach. im hoping for the market to pull back to 1038 so i can get long. if it is range bound 1038 to 1100 over the next year ill be much happier to trade that than another crash. technically a correction to 1038 to allow sideliners in and margined greed out would be healthy. truly want things to be on the improve despite how i feel.
November 26th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Palladin is back…:)
November 26th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
There’s a fine line between ‘kidding’ and being an ‘asshole’.
November 26th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Woo/Idan, can we just IP ban this dude. Every week he spurs a bunch of BS not related to trading about me. I don’t come here for that. If I ever see his post again, I’m gone for good from this website. Palladin you are taking it too far. Grew the fuck up.
November 26th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Zee,
Yes, he is pretty annoying………. Simply ignore his posts……… Don’t fall right into his trap. He is so transparent when he shows up. He is just a baby looking for attention.
Thanks so much for your contributions to this site. Keep up your good work!
November 26th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Zee, why even bother to give any attention to this dick! Let the dog keep barking, why even waste time responding…
I know Idan and Woo do not have time to monitor this website 24/7
Euro Shares Record Biggest Drop in 7 Months
love to see it happen here next week. not tomorrow
November 26th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
They will recover it before we open on Monday
November 26th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
in USA news won’t matter much it’s all the USD game that fed is playing… Just to keep this rally going they start creating new low of USD every other day!
i’ve made a lot today in eur DAX put’s
dax -3,2% ( 0,6-2.5) ( S&P 1010-1084 )
what’s you guys espect for opening tomorrow… in S&P?
November 26th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
A fall down.. probably.. with gold included.
November 26th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Tomorrow is a down day by 100 or so, and the data from Black Friday will not be as good as expected. Monday is going to the day we go down 300 points on the dow, a close below 10k not out of the question.
Real America is hurting, this walstreet crap will be exposed very soon. Dollar trade is crowded as well, perfect storm to catch all the dollar shorts by the ass.
Oil is getting crushed. I hope that the people who followed me into the UCO and ERX trades got out with me yesterday.
It will be interesting to see how asia reacts. If they gain we may open flat tomorrow.
I donot think US has much exposure to Dubai like the Europeans do.
November 26th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
So far, Asian markets are down roughly 2%. let’s see how they close. if S&P holds to where the futures are trading, i don’t know if the bears can manage to bring it down below the 1083-1086 support line tomorrow. i can foresee a possible stall in that area tom. then maybe a slight move upwards on monday (mutual fund/green mondays) before dropping again later in the week which should allow performance chasers another entry point before an end of year rally.
November 26th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
C & BAC have huge exposure.
GS has hedged exposure to many mideastern projects including ‘mortgages’
on saudi and iraqi oilfields. Fair sized exposure to AIG.
The greater the silence, the higher the exposure. RBS & HSBC have the
lions share of these debts
The chain effect to worry about (and the reason oil rebounded so fast) is
Mexico, Venez., Columbia, Peru etc., etc. have huge debts in hands of
US brokers funding the dollar ‘Kerry trade’.
Will post a list of foreign debt by nation and you can guess which american
banks are borrowing from treasury to lend at higher rates to Viet Nam or
Laos.
When this gets traced directly back to Bernanke the price of tar and feathers
will soar.
November 26th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Looking forward to seeing the list and source of list. thnx. Mucho interesting stuff (technical term).
EDZ long tomorrow 3X bear emerging market should do quite well IMO.
Methinks that Zee, myself, and others who held short positions will be rewarded handsomely by closing bell Friday. Longs should be in some serious pain. Prediction: 3% drop across the board. Or with continued market intervention and unprecedented manipulation by the Fed and GS, maybe we close down 1%. It’d be nice to see them take a day off however, just one!
November 26th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Gold and silver reversing earlier losses and up less than buck as yen takes
off. Market will open down 2% and close at break even as bargain hunters
move in.
Same script, different story. Think of what a down market would do to bargain
shoppers on black friday? Will not be tolerated.
They have moved Maria Bartiromo to asia to charm and calm the masses via
CNBC asia.
November 26th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
naa…its going to be a bear trap again
. You are playing the manipulation card again! Things have changed overnight in he past so lets see what happens tomorrow. If we drop 200pts into close then I will buy with my money before EOD…
November 26th, 2009 at 10:44 pm
Good points guys, we’ll see in half a day.
November 27th, 2009 at 3:04 am
Wow, looks like we’re going to open way way down. Dow futures -317.00 and falling. A shortened session makes it interesting, but I just think the dip buyers may be out of ammo, and others that still have cash and were buying the dips will be too scared to do it.
I’ve been predicting it for probably 2-3 weeks now, but I think we might have our 3% plus pullback all in one day tomorrow. Wouldn’t shock me to see 5% down. Less than 2% down will really piss me off however. Yeah, I know… be prepared to be pissed off, right? We’ll see but I think I’ll have a smile on my face at 1pm est.