Idan:
10.10am I really like AXP short here, I think it’s reached it’s long potential, and while it might try and reach 42.50-43… i’m okay with taking a swing trade to the short side here as I believe the market in general is toppy. Also my target for GLD is around 105.60-106… might be worth starting to look at the downside here.
Woo:
Futures are up a good amount. We’re above the fib of 1098 in the futures, but we’ll see if we stay that way into open
1 month chart:
So this blue line has been around for a while, but I forgot to extend is all the way through. That bottom was a good call position and I didn’t even realize it because I forgot to extend that line. Either way, I’ll be able to buy stocks again starting this week, so I’m looking forward to getting my foot back in the market. As I’ve been saying over and over and over again for a few weeks like a dead record – 1122 on the 5 minute chart. There has been no movement in the market to make me think otherwise. Who knows if we’ll get there this week or not, or if it’s the complete top for sure, but I know that it’s a top that is the current projection. I’ll try and post some individual stock charts throughout the day if I can find time at work. Sorry, very busy weekend. Good luck everyone!
As a full blown bear for a month now, I’ve got a good feeling about today, and will be looking to add short positions on any upward move.
The futures are way up this morning.
For those saying why are we up today if cycle theory has confirmed the top? It’s because the market loves to backtest or stay in the topping area for 2-3 trading days on average to confuse everyone. The trade now is to short the SPY. Why? Because the risk/reward is there. The reward is a sell-off to the 1050-1075 area, while the risk is being stopped out if the S&P rallies past 1125. 5% reward vs 2.5% risk.
*If we cross 1125, I would cover all shorts as the market is likely going to the 1150-1200 area before topping out for the year –this event could possibly happen as the 3-month cycle is suppose to peak sometime in december*
Here’s how I’m playing it.
Limit Orders
SPY Short 1000 @ 111.00 Stops at 112.50
SDS Long 2000 @ 35.65 Stops at 34.35
Market Orders
UUP Long 5000 @ Market Stops at 21.94.
Gutsy call zee but i like it.
If the market makes a new high, does it negate the top? Does that put us in a position for a December 1 high?
Nice post, Zee. thanks for the risk/reward ratios….
Zee, I hope your right !!!!
He’s wrong. Liquidity confidence is rising to a whole new level starting today. You all really should pay attention ,
I was planning to short SPX at 1099. Friday’s action convinced me otherwise. The volume dried down as the market went lower. This clearly says that not many traders are ready to short the market at 1090. I will wait tll 1120 before entering short positons.
I continue to do well as I am 80% long ABX (Barrick’s Gold) and 20% cash. May deploy cash to buy SU (Suncor Energy) on a pullback for a short term trade.
If I were playing the SPY I would try to short it at 111.2. But this guy can break out above my trendlines at any time now. Might not get there today.
OT: SNL Video Obama in China…Funny stuff check it out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlNrWLo4wEw&feature=player_embedded
looks like the 1098 – 1105 area would make a nice level for the right shoulder, is this too obvious? I am new to TA, how high can we go before the head and shoulders formation is invalid?
I’m going to take the day off from trading. It looks like my 3 shorter term positions (ERX, FAS, and UCO) will be fine. Best of luck to all!
Morris – thanks for your post on USO … it shows that we can play within the pattern too … I always waited for pattern breakouts – great post
You are most welcome! It has been a very reliable trade so far.
last week the 3 down days were low vol and fed play very smart to take USD higher enough to make today a big day up by tanking USD back to below 75! what a fking game!
It’s beyond me why people would try and short this market.
Seems like a great way to lose your money.
It might be a good idea to take a small short at this point on the spy, we are right under resistance.
A good way to lose money is to hold onto your convictions blindly and only trade long or only trade short. I finally got over that and started making decent money instead of spinning my wheels.
“Stocks Open Higher as Oil Tops $1,170″
cnbc.com has this news on home page, did they outsource their website to India or China? “oil Tops 1170″ or gold?
they fixed it now
ERX is on fire this morning! I may close my UCO position before I head out for the day (just to be safe). I’d like to see at least 13.85 on that.
msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: October existing-home sales up 10.1 percent, beating expectations
Wow, TZA down over 8% as I type this! I hope the people here that were playing it last week got out on Friday.
All short ETF’s are getting hammered
Yes, but of the four main 3X bear ETFs (BGZ, ERY, FAZ, and TZA), it is getting the worst of it with ERY running close behind it.
Yes – I did … posted as welll … in UCO right now … not as great a entry as yous ….
Will you be looking to enter SCO now that we are reaching the top of the channel morris ?
Anjali, I’m not sure. I’m about to leave town for a day trip with the fam so I won’t be here to monitor things. I may close some positions here soon but I don’t plan to enter anything today.
Have a great trip
Yes….thank God I got out on Friday. I had 3K shares.
Idan…..will you be using DZZ to short gold?
If margin req hadn’t just skyrocketed I’d add more to my dollar longs right here.
Two relevant events happened today. For the last week or so EUR/USD was trading in a descending triangle and today that triangle broke to the upside. This means that a massive sell off of USD is coming and I expect the pair to reach at least 1.57 if not more. What this means for stocks?. Well the risky bet is short USD and long Stocks so we could still see this rally continue (crazy?). However the upper channel lies only 50 points ahead and I expect to see a retrace from it. If we break the upper channel it can get really crazy so I would be very cautious right now since there are too many signals out there. I am still holding 500 TNA at an average of 39.64 from last week. I expected a bounce and positioned myself to it but used the incorrect vehicle (TNA) which had a surprising GAP down on thursday of almost 12%. I did not panic (I was playing with house money from my TZA gains) and held over the weekend. I am now at almost breakeven with TNA and will sell pretty soon. If we break 10530 the next stop is 10850 and then 11050. I will play short at 10530 since I doubt the breakage of the channel and I think we will still go up but within this channel.
JROD – you should be getting a cash distribution for the shares you shold … so you should be at more than breakeven … check your account.
I do not see that in Zecco trading. Is there something I should be aware of?
short term capital gains distribution in many of the 3X bull ETFs (which explains the big drop in share price); see the intraday posts from Friday for more info (or just go to the Direxion site)
Yeah, I think you’re getting 4-5 bucks a share. Happy thanksgiving.
I must respectfully disagree. That descending triangle you speak of in the EUR/USD is not the most relevant formation. Unless we break above 1.50476 area we are still trading within a descending channel.
You had a big overnight move in the EUR it’s true , and thats responsible for the big up opening in the market but no major trend have been broken. The USD/JPY is still finding support , the GBP/USD has not broken anything.
Overall I would say we had a nice retrace here overnight but untill I see that 1.50476 area get taken out I’m not worried.
We are also at a key resistance area on the DJI at the very top of the megaphone.
I agree with the megaphone top resistance that is why i speak abouth the mixed signals outthere. The EUR/USD triangle can be seen at the 4H chart. I see this as a break to the upside but I could be wrong. I do not trade currency I only use it for the stock market. I will be watching the 1.50476 level you stated for reference. Thanks for the post.
There was a distribution of some capital gains … so you should be making $$ on TZA right now /..
http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs?distributions;funds=erx,typ,mwj,ery,fas,tmf,tyh,edc,mwn,bgu,tza,edz,tna,tmv,faz,dpk,tyd,bgz,dzk,tyo
I think we are close to the highs of the day. I don’t see us closing at these levels. That said, I’m in a long position and I will continue to hold.
Idan – what puts are you buying on AXP ?
Sold all UCO @13.78. GL.
sold 200 FAS @ 79.00 (up 3.95% from my entry @ 76.00 on Thursday); +$600.00
Bought more SDS @35.60. GL.
Why is the S&P stuck at 1111
IWM remains in the descending channel.
I haven’t been charting the SPX cash index. But using the SPY draw a line from the October 07 high to the May 08 high on the spy. Use the intraday highs.
The SPY has been hitting this line last week and now. This is why I am suggesting that we hit the hod as we hit this descending resistance.
There is an ascending support line connecting swing lows from the multi-month rally. The two lines will be crossing soon and the market will have to choose.
keep in mind we broke above this line several times intraday, but never closed above it.
sold 2000 SCO @ 13.78 (up 4.79% from my average of 13.15); +$1260.00
sorry, UCO not SCO
I’m going to hold the ERX position for now (it’s only 300 shares). Heading out now; have a good one!
Have a nice trip
Anjali – what are the support/resistance levels you have have for STI?
Thanks.
Ray -
STI broke resistance @ 22.62 this am … next resistance is 23.35 and 23.70 (that is my first tgt). and then 24.4 … I will take off 50% of my position at 23.70 …
Also, if I see a clean break of 22.60 – I get out …
Wow! 23.35 it is – to the dot. It touched your first resistance and is back down.
I think we may see some consolidation on this – probably down to test the 22.60 support and then bounce to reach the 23.70 target …
I would not enter anywhere else, however on a bounce off 22.60 I would re-enter with Dec 23 calls, right now I had Dec 22 calls …I am quite bullish on this …
22.60 – 22.65 should be strong support …
Brian Shannon
http://www.stocktwits.tv in 5 minutes
This guy is out of his mind take a listen…
http://www.youtube.com/user/Bigwet72
nah , thats big wet he called the march lows
nah, thats bigwet he called the march lows
What’s wrong with his teeth?
Was 1111 on S&P the resistance? although I strongly believe that we won’t see a major pull back this week due to holiday coming up, where and when do you guys see a major trend change?
Morris? WOO?
morris and woo getting married.
Sorry jusbreal, I was out doing family stuff most of the day. It did not involve getting married to Woo although he seems like a heck of a nice guy.
Today is probably the last kick in the ass for Bears. Bear with it, it will be over soon
Just picked up some more SRS, FAZ, and TZA. I believe we close in the red across the board!
To date you have been a contrary indicator. I hope you’re right for socioeconomic reasons, but this morning I bet against your initial posting.
LOL, i am betting against him on markets and metals, but deep down i hope
he is right and that america fails and implodes with anarchy and destruction
via nuclear holocaust.
Russia doing a sneak attack might limit stock gains to 400 points?
If the bull market continues to 1,000,000,000,000,000 which is where the dollar dynamics of what is driving this market say it should go then America will be destroyed. Currently average people HAVE NO PLACE to put their money. A massive crash and upside to the dollar is the pain needed to save the country.
Sadly it looks like I was wrong yet again. Unbelievable. Still I feel we go down hard, and very soon.
The dollar is starting to show some life and if that’s the case the rally is over.
Remember the flare I was talking about (inverted hammer) from two days ago. Well it played out almost perfectly and went above the 111.25 area by about the same amount we went below the base of the flare. Hope some people were able to make money off this…
Hey Woo … so where do you see us going now ?
Can you post an updated chart …. but I am guessing we broke the yellow trendline and now 1105-1102 are imp areas to watch … but if we reak those, then how far can we fall ? Also, do you see us pushing up again today / tomm ?
Here’s a linkable:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p71720882380&a=181738042
broke the yellow line slightly, but we’re back below it now, and we’re below the 50ma and the pink trend line. This area may hold for the day. I don’t know if I’ll be playing SPY today because it’s right above a gap, and has two resistance points above, yet if it breaks north, we could see new highs. lots of risk to weigh.
long term erx looks like more of a safe bet, not sure if today is the most optimal time to get in though.
for some reason the SPX black chart doesn’t work
Woo – trying to decide whether to hold or drop my SPY calls which are at beakeven …
Based on this , if we break into the gap, then I should get out …. otherwise it looks like we could ramp higher into 1105 at least one more time for a good exit …. right ?
There was also an earlier flare on SPY to below 104.
Still waiting for that one…
mr woo,
can you provide an updated chart on XLF and BAC later…will this squeezing up on all indices, i don’t see them following..if financials don’t lead, are we doomed?
thanks
———- TZA —————- have not posted today. my jaw had to be lifted off the floor. i just managed to exit this position at $11.65 which is $0.12 below my stop loss limit. once again we get a gap that jumps over my stop. happy to have a pull back.
im still in all other positions. PBI has done little to change its bearish chart.
looking to Weds for all OPEX action to settle and see where the market stands. im not making any new wagers on direction until late Weds.
Hey Richard – was thinking of you …
I haven’t really touched these long term charts in over a month or two, so not much has changed since you’ve last viewed them other than them being filled in
XLF
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooxlf-3?context=user
BAC
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woobac-9?context=user
ERX
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooerx-4?context=user
I’m really liking that ERX chart…
as always…thanks and appreciate your efforts
Master Woo, do you take into account for the dividend pay-outs for ERX (believe it took almost 10% off Thursday’s price) in your chart? Do resistance and support levels change because of the pay-out?
Much thanks for your always valuable insights!
could care less about dividend payouts, or earnings, or oil news, or energy news, that might affect the erx chart. the erx chart long term is pretty much a set thing. it’s harder to call the short term moves exactly, but those trend lines holding and those fibs hitting are no coincidence. i pay attention to the news, read, watch, and listen daily, but the movement of the market generally affects the news more than the news affects the market. even with dividends, i feel they help fill in the chart.
Thanks for the explanation. I am in and out of ERX quite frequently lately to catch on the swing moves, and have made out pretty well thanks to your analysis.
Just another dumb question, while the Fibs and trend lines are holding well, is TA a reliable tool for something like a 3x ETF that pays dividends (out of its net value) quarterly and tends to decay in value over long-term?
not a dumb question at all. Think of the market in terms of waves, with up and down movements. When the 3x etf is doing well and doesn’t really have any large reason to stop going north, a dividend would be one of the 2 or 4 waves down on a 5 wave north where 1,3,5 are the stronger rises.
no market will keep rising without any retrace eventually. those dividends, earnings, good and bad news, pretty much will fall on the time, place, and movement needed to make the overall EW movement look clean. This is why I feel it’s good to be knowledgeable and keep up with news, but to be careful in factoring in the news too much in your charts. Charts speak for themselves, news is created based on market movement, not the other way around.
you’ll never see an article that comes out RIGHT when earnings comes out saying…”earnings didn’t meet expectations, the market will likely go down” it’s always in REACTION to the market movement
the erx chart you’re looking at is 2 months old, but it’s a 1+ year chart and the trend lines and fibs are playing out despite what has happened in the past. looking at the history of erx i don’t need to know when dividends were paid out, or when decay happened. i’m sure someone can do a trend analysis and notice some great times to get in and out of positions based on when decay might occur and when dividends are possibly paid out, but I don’t pay attention to erx that much hehe.
but this is just one school of thought. there are others that make money paying very close attention to dividends and news and decay, and if that works for them that is awesome, and i, in no way, shape, or form would tell those people to stop doing what they are doing. but i’m a strict EW chartist. good luck! glad you’ve been able to make money off of ERX.
Thanks Woo… always appreciate your patience and generosity in sharing your knowledge and insights!
Stocktock is my favorite investment site to check throughout the day because of wonderful contributors like you, Idan, Morris, Fritz, and many others!!!
Woo – could you share the linkable version to these too … hopefully they work …
Thanks a ton
STI – the people following this trade …. the LT trendline at 23.50 is upsloping and is now converging with my first tgt of 23.70 near EOD … if we see a rise into this by EOD, I will close my position …. if we see it gap above 24 tomm – then will decide what to do …
However, since there are 2 resistances converging at 23.70 now … I will close my position …
Bought UCO @13.06. GL.
Wow. I really wish I was trading SPY options the last few days. This sucker has been like a ping pong ball between my trendlines, I will post my daily this evening.
I bought some SPY Dec 109 puts today at the market high. What do you think tomorrow morning brings? Up or down to start off the day? I am trying to decide if I should close them out now with a profit or hold on.
Closed them out. Better to take the money off the table while it is still there.
never hurts to take your profits, but it looks like we’re going down tomorrow, added a chart below.
interesting battle brewing between big miner Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF)(PARIS:CLF)
and
NOT.V
over a huge PGM strike at McFauld’s Lake in N.Ontario.
do your own research, expect a pitch by cliffs for not @ $7. to command the entire play.
good post. thnx. I traded CLF until recently when it began getting media coverage.
CLF may not be the play, NOT.V may be the object of takeout. Real good drill
and reserves in n.ontario. heavy inside buying.
gravestone doji daily candlestick forming on SPY/IWM/EEM
17 minutes to go.
OK – closed my STI calls …. this could fall till 22.60 – so took my 15% and got out … will reenter with STI 23 calls, if I see abounce on 22.60
very nice anjali. solid profit. locking in some good trades these days =P
Thanks Woo
… trying to be more disciplined about taking profits … that is my biggest pain area …
STI Dec 22 calls entered 1.45 – exit 1.7 … it went upto 1.92 … but profit is a profit … I am still bullish on this, but it could consolidate and retest broken resistance as support at 22.60, if I see a bounce I will re-enter with Dec 23 calls …
SPY calls – had a great profit on this- this morning, however back to breakeven … held over for now … if you could share what you are seeing that would be great …
Still holding UCO calls – was almost breakeven this am on this too – now back under water …
woo, what shud we do into close?
well, i went long overnight…still pretty sizeably. be long or be wrong~
i think that should be fine. i don’t think we break south of the 1088 area, not saying we’ll even test there. even if we do, there should be plenty of chance to get out.
i’m leaning more towards the market playing between the 50 ma and 200ma so i think 1096-1098 will hold short term.
1115 is a short term top for me, and the trend line will meet that area tomorrow about 1-2 hours into market open. i would like to see that hit before any drops.
OK – thanks for sharing, so that should be a point for me to get out of the SPY calls – hopefully should get a second chance ….
Also, what is the point, where we would say we fall much harder … looking at the chart, we should not get below 1091 if we are to bounce up …. maybe 1088 but no lower … is that right ?
As mentioned in Post #2 short was the way to go. I will likely raise my stops to the 1120 area.
1000 SPY Short at 110 — + 180$
5000 UUP at 22.25 — +100$
2000 SDS at 35.65 — + 667$
Net for the day +947$
I will be unloading these positions in 1-2 weeks when the market reaches 1075 or when I get stopped out.
Serious question here…and your bias is fine, but how can you possible recommend the short side right now when the trend is clearly biased to the upside? Wouldn’t it be best to actually wait for a confirmed turnover to the downside (which I suspect happens at 1125 area) instead of actually entering a position? Sometimes waiting for the opportunity instead entering prematurely preserves capital.
additional note…being long with a profit stop would sure keep the money in your pocket instead of anticipating the reversal and not confirming it…
JB, I appreciate your responce. First of all, I couldn’t care less what the trend is. I play the 3-5% movements and get out. Probability wise, there is a higher chance of a 3% downside then a 3% upside. I like my odds so I will bet on the downside. I am neither bear neither bull, I just play the odds. You can play the ‘emotion’.
On Friday, when the market gapped down 2%, that was enough confirmation that we are topping for 2 weeks. My goal is to make a 2-3% return on my invesment while minimizing DD. I am not expecting any corrections larger than 3% hence why I said I will cover my shorts at 1075. My stop is at 1120, therefore my risk is 1% and my rewards are 3.5%.. If you go long here, what is your reward?? Historically on Jan 1st the market is only up 4% from November 2nd. Therefore the market is fairly valued at November 2nds closing price (1030) + 4%. FV of the S&P is approx 1070.
Why are you going long?
BTW. I am hedged anyways with longs : AMD at 4.5$, MRK at 30.5$, SSS.V 0.12, DOW at 23.5$
JB, I am not ANTICIPATING a reversal.
I am anticipating a 3% correction of which 0.5% already happened today.
2.5% more to go!
that’s fair enough…
I guess I was asking for clarification of your angle. I appreciate the response and I understand your goals better now…
I am not going long, I am already long from Friday based on the rounded reversal the market had (FAS, Short BGZ and Long EK). I added an additional long on AA into the close today and took 30% of my FAS long off an hour after the open, but that will have a tight stop (the AA trade) and the others all have trailing profit stops now. I would suspect, purely based on my perspective, a move down to 1100/1102 in the next day or so before a run to 1120′s…
Your 3:1 ratio is appropriate… I use the same ration to trade, but alot of my trades are only 2 to 3 day trades at most (with a lot of intra day trades) before I move on to a new setup.
hey mr woo…
one last thing tonight before you turn in..can you take a look at DSX and post a chart.
i see this dropping back into channel to 14′s…after todays massive reversal.
thoughts?
i haven’t really looked at DSX in a LONG time. maybe over a year or two back when china and shipping were bubbling. i’ll try and take a look, but i’m not sure if i’ll have time. this is a super busy week for me, so i’ll do my best after i put a chart together.
again…thanks
isn’t 15 strong support for DSX?
I am following the expanding wedge in the DJI as Idan described yesterday, today’s action stayed within the wedge, I bought this AM 1K SDS @ 35.63 and 1K DXD @ 29.38 Stops are at 35.70 and 29.45. Will take a look at futures and decide if I need to adjust, but my feeling is that if the market starts with an up move tomorrow, it will probably continue higher. I’d rather be stopped out and take my chances on a better entry point later.
Media says that stocks rose today on the rise in existing home sales – I felt the market’s reaction to the home sales increase was actually very unimpressive, since almost all of the rise in the market occurred before the 10:00 home sales announcement, and the rest of the day was mostly a slow grind down. I also felt the rally EOD was pretty weak.
updated daily chart. Closed below resistance, more room to run to the down side tomorrow so that’s my call for now. We are in position to gap above the trend line though, which would make me cover my shorts if I had them.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/20091123spychart-1?context=user
Paulie M. = Palladin?
I think Paulie M. = Palladin = Little Richie Long Spear = Shotgun Wedding, based on the languages they use and the poor spelling/grammar in their posts.
There’s 5-7 posters who I think are really the same alias (GoldmanSuchs, Palladin, Paulie M, Shotgun Wedding, Little Richie… )
apologies zee. just ignore and move on. thanks.
yeah you actually think wrong buddy…I have one name I post on stocktock,danerics and kenny’s site..
makes sense though to pretend all bears on this site are the same person about as much sense as the S and P being at 1100.
sorry gms, i’m sure it’s just a misunderstanding. let’s get back to the stocks.
I had to do a double take to make sure I was in the right blog……you guys [?] OK?
Zee – we all know how you post … don’t stress out … would be nice if we could block these trolls …