|
20
Nov
|
|
Idan
My Target for GLD remains around 155.6-116 in the short term, I believe we could see a nice correction once we hit around those levels… That’s where my fib projections take me.
Dow Jones Daily: I said i would play the megaphone formation… well here we go… I bought DXD at 30.32 today.
Woo:
1 month chart update of SPX:
So after hitting the 1088 fib, we bounced and stayed above the 1090 cluster of fibs as expected. The 1090 area was a good area to buy calls. The 1096 area was the initial top to look for and it hit on the dot as the first area of resistance. There are two fibs in this area, and there’s still a chance we could drop. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 1080 area were to hit, so it was wise to get out of at least half the position of SPY calls going into EOD at the 1096 level. This way you lock in profits and if the market heads higher you have a good position on those calls, and if the market heads lower, your losses are hedged by the profits made, and the profit position going into closing. It is always dangerous to hold options overnight during opex week because decay will hit options even if they are next month, much more than they would at other times of the month.
Ideally for a call position you want to see a rise into open to the 1105 level where you’ll hit the first trend line resistance, but the market may go horizontal for another day to decay options. This can hurt both bear and bull and leave the market in limbo for another day into the weekend. On the longer term charts the market can still drop a good amount more without losing the bullish bias. We’ve had a 3 wave movement down so far to the 1088 lows with the 2 of 3 being a flat correction. The big question is whether this 3 wave will finish, or it will go down and complete a 5th wave south. I have a feeling if we do head south, we’ll stop at 1085, and that is an area where I would consider grabbing a nice experimental call position for a potential 5 of 5 wave finish and then a rise up. This would create some problems though and mean there could be more dropping after the bounce there, so I’m leaning more towards heading higher into tomorrow or going horizontal. If you have a call position going into tomorrow the 1090 area is the key place to watch. A drop below 1093 technically will be the first short term bear sign, and you may actually want to have stops below 1092.9 (maybe 1092 or so if you want to lock in profits). If 1090 breaks, 1088 break would be further confirmation of a bigger fall to come, once that fib breaks that could mean that even though we may bounce one day or so, most likely a bit more downside is to come.
From my post last night in case anyone missed it:
The DOW and SPX both locked in “sell” at yesterday’s close. Four stocks also locked in “sell”: DD, MSFT (for the second time in 6 sessions), ABX (or ABX.TO), GG (or G.TO).
If you hold long positions on the stocks listed above, keep your stop tight to protect profit.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:21 am
Might be a good time to buy a MSFT put, since I want to keep my shares. January 29 puts are at $.80 and the 27.5s are at $.39. Hmmm.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Thanks for the analysis. I appreciate you monitoring ABX
Dollar way up futures way down it could be an interesting day..
Oil is down a good bit and ERX is getting crushed in the premarket. I’m surprised that the futures are holding up so well given the hit on energy. It should be an interesting day.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:16 am
Morries, let say if Oil goes to below 75 what will be ERX? Currently I went short yesterday 500 ERX at 44.60
November 20th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Hi Morris, I was looking at ERX, wondering why it was down so much and almost bought in pre-market. Then I looked at ERY and wondered why it was not up so much.
It seems if you are holding you have a sizeble capital distribution coming $4.60, I think
Loss on ERX may not be as bad as thought.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Thanks so much for the info!
November 20th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Morris,
FYI
http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs?distributions;funds=erx,typ,mwj,ery,fas,tmf,tyh,edc,mwn,bgu,tza,edz,tna,tmv,faz,dpk,tyd,bgz,dzk,tyo
Very interesting -
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Erratic trade was seen in U.S. dollar index futures, which rose as high as 82.18. In more recent trade, the contract was up 0.7% to 75.88. The dollar was up by 0.7% against the euro, up 1.1% on the British pound and up 0.1% on the yen.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-index-futures-briefly-spiked-2009-11-20
Looks like someone BIG is getting out of the way of an even bigger freight train called a correcting stock market to me.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:35 am
GREAT POST! many thanks
Hi, Fritz,
Last night, you shared with us that by December 7 you should have enough data to map out the next 10 months. As a beginner, I feel it is difficult even to predict even 1 day market move. can you share with your long term investment strategy and practice that many new investors would be benefit from? Are you a investor or swing trader or both?
Dollar short squeeze may be on. Those 97% Dollar shorts could get crushed.
Notice how Wednesday’s setup looked bullish, but the market turned around and did the damage in the first hour yesterday without giving traders a chance to short the market at desired prices? Same thing might happen again today.
November 20th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Be careful , none of the pairs have broken any long term trend lines or fibs yet. While I agree with you that such an even is likely around the corner untill those long term EUR trend lines snap and the USD/JPY breaks out of it’s falling wedge we are not there yet.
Once that happens however I agree thats it going to bounce violently as margins unwind in a dramatic fashion.
We have a little bit more upside in the USD till the EUR & GBP find fib lines to bounce from. This would be supportive of a rise at market open (which of course then later in the day corrects back down).
USD started tanking!
Check out DRV and DRN in pre-market. One is up less than 2% while the other is down over 8%. Aren’t they supposed to be in an inverse relationship? Am I missing something?
November 20th, 2009 at 9:19 am
DRV is 1.6% up while DRN is 1.2% down
November 20th, 2009 at 9:24 am
Maybe my quotes are wrong. I’ve got marketwatch showing DRN at $115.06.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:00 am
distribution for bull ETFs
My current positions:
EUR/USD Short Avg @ 1.48784
USD/JP Long @ 88.906
GBP/USD Short @ 1.66386
FAZ Long @ 19.62
I will be out most the day today. Plan to hold my positions over the weekend providing they don’t reverse violently today (i.e. some massive rally in the market)
If I am not wrong Options expiration day is always green right?
November 20th, 2009 at 9:41 am
DXY at 57.7s gave gov lots of room to sink it around 75 and that will give push to this market high about 1 to 2%… i hope i am wrong
If you’re wondering why many of the Direxionshares leveraged ETFs are gapping down by such large amounts this morning, today’s the ex-date for a distribution
Some Direxionshares ETFs trading ex dividend include: ERX, BGU, TNA, EDC, DZK, TYH, MWJ, TYO, TMF, TMV, DRN.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:43 am
so is it good time to go long or short for these ETFs?
November 20th, 2009 at 10:01 am
http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs?distributions;funds=erx,typ,mwj,ery,fas,tmf,tyh,edc,mwn,bgu,tza,edz,tna,tmv,faz,dpk,tyd,bgz,dzk,tyo
November 20th, 2009 at 11:18 am
nas- it doesn’t matter either way.
The only problem is that your money is tied up for a few days while you wait for the distribution.
A lot of people say to get out of these on the ex-dividend date so you don’t have to claim the capital gains. But, its a leveraged ETF, chances are you are going to sell it soon anyway, and if you sold it today, then the loss would offset the gain. It’s all a wash either way. There’s no way it should be “played” imo.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:52 am
thank you for this information, it helps…
I’m going to be out most of the day doing dad stuff. I may pop back in from time to time to check on things. I held the smallish UCO, FAS, and ERX positions overnight and I’m not really worried about them at this point. Best of luck to all today!
November 20th, 2009 at 9:52 am
another 1000 UCO @ 13.00 and now I am done
November 20th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Add more UCO @12.98. GL.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:13 am
Cool – what is your tgt for UCO ?
Will look forward to your post – hopefully on the weekend on UCO / SCO
sold rest of sco–new position in erx, small.
some good e/r’s KIRK DBRN HIBB SKIL SJM
fuglies EFUT ADCT DELL CHRD
good morning woo,
please confirm XLF and WFC in a daily head and shoulders…after opex, these are done??
November 20th, 2009 at 10:19 am
both xlf and wfc are still above a major trend line…
November 20th, 2009 at 10:30 am
wfc is on the verge of falling south though…
November 20th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Woo can you share the links for your XLF / WFC charts – hopefully they will work, then we don’t need to ping you again for them…
Also, AAPL – would you buy at the 197.41 fib or wait ?
crazy day.
i think i’m just going to turn off the computer and wait for the dust to settle.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Frustrating swings in AGU.
They`re trying to sake people out.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:29 am
shake people out.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
sake them out may work too – drive them to the bottle.
FYI: unlike wine, Sake does not contain sulfites, greatly reducing hangovers.
erx for those that have stockcharts.com accounts:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62595601024&a=181587766
November 20th, 2009 at 10:48 am
is that line gonna hold? or HS to 32?
November 20th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Cool – this worked – can you share for XLF and WFC too ?
Also, GOOG – if you get a chance …
Thanks a ton !!
November 20th, 2009 at 11:09 am
woo, what should be the good entry point for EXR? I want to go long
November 20th, 2009 at 11:33 am
nastrades, you said that were shorting ERX. Have you covered yet? When did you open the short?
November 20th, 2009 at 11:38 am
not yet but it’s going down so i will cover it Tstp with .25 in but i like to go long if it’s set to recover
November 20th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Just remember, if you shorted 500 shares, you will have to pay the distribution amount to your broker (which will be $2324.50).
Anyone see this regarding OIL
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/pa...
November 20th, 2009 at 10:49 am
The link pulls up the home page. Wh/ article are you reading? thnx
November 20th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Sorry bad link
Here you go
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/panic-warning-as-oil-supplies-run-low-20091110-i7j0.html
November 20th, 2009 at 11:17 am
that link worked. thnx. Automatic Earth ran a similar article not so long ago. I like the quote from the anonymous source saying instructions were to paint the oil supply pic better than it really is because no one wants to make the USA angry.
After the short term capital gains distribution in ERX (4.649 per share), I am currently down only around 200 dollars on the 300 shares I bought at 44.00 yesterday. Whew!
November 20th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Lucky you got out with just that much of a loss. I thought about staying long in tna at EOD yesterday.
November 20th, 2009 at 10:49 am
I’m still holding.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:13 am
I just about crapped my pants when I saw how far down it was today, then I saw that it was ex-date, I will need to adjust my “entry” point to the reflect the capital gains distribution.
SPX testing yesterday’s low
November 20th, 2009 at 10:57 am
whoops!
My TNA gamble not going very well. I am still holding 500 shares and will wait to add more later.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:14 am
The small caps seem to be at a critical spot right now. I’m waiting for a spike in either direction.
woo…. it’s time for call’s of put’s… ?
Anitang/Morris,
Question: I purchased ERX Nov. 19. I am now concerned that oil will continue to drop by mid-next week to maybe $73-74. To capture my dividend, do I need to hold my ERX through November 24th? The ex date is Nov. 20th, today, the record date is Nov. 24th. Or now that I have shares on the ex date, this morning at market open, can I sell this afternoon, if oil cycles back a bit higher this afternoon, and still be entitled to the $4.65 dividend? In other words, am I free to now sell and retain my dividend, or must I hold all my shares purchased Nov. 19th through Nov. 24th to get the dividend? Are dividend payments paid into my tdameritrade account by Derexion on Nov. 30th?
Thank you!
November 20th, 2009 at 11:12 am
You will get the distribution.
Ex-divi day means the first day the ETF trades without the divi attached. You can sell anytime now and still collect it
Ex-divi = without divi
November 20th, 2009 at 11:15 am
If you purchased ERX on Nov 19, settlement date would be Nov 24. You are already entitled to get the dividend for the shares. Dividend payments would be paid to your account via TD Ameritrade on Nov 30. Hope this helps.
Morris/other traders please correct me if I am wrong.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:19 am
yes T+3, correct
November 20th, 2009 at 11:22 am
You are correct. As long as you held the shares at the close yesterday, you will receive the distribution and you can sell today with no worries.
Also, anyone who was shorting ERX at the close yesterday will have to pay the distribution of 4.649 per share.
ERX closed at 44.24 yesterday and the distribution amount was approximately 4.65 so for all practical purposes the close was at 39.59 (so it is down about 3% right now on the day).
November 20th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Thanks Guns & Morris.
Hello guns,
Thank you. I called Direxion a few minutes ago and got the same answer. I was of record when the dividend was announced which means I can unload at any time and still collect. Now if we can only get Jan crude to cycle up to $78-79!
——– MAXIMUM PAIN IS WORKING ———- for the first time in months OPEX is showing a winning hand. 110 FOR CALLS 108 FOR PUTS … these are the bubble pain numbers. looks like we slide right into the middle for SPY 109.
——- PBI ——— holding around $24 …….. today is the cut-off for holders on record to collect dividends. the current yield is a whopping 6% . should PBI cut the dividend next quarter? according to thier balance sheet… yes. however, they have managed to keep paying it and maybe they won’t do the right thing and try to wiggle around it. should be interesting on Monday for PBI as many may hold on today to collect. however, you were better off selling your shares at $25 because the fall in price this week overshadows the dividend payout. the dividend on common is $0.36 for shareholders on record today.
as i type this …. PBI …. making new lows for the week.
109.10 key level on the SPY if we can confirm below it’s down we go..Looks like it bounced off it this time.
——— TZA ———– im in it to win it and the chart is really really shaping up to explode. the 20 40mas are turning up after the 20 crossed at the beginning of the month. the 50ema has also flattened out. RSI has moved above 50 with a strong cross in the FULL STO. you can not ignore what this chart is saying. being burned before can not stop you from taking the risk. it appears the risk of betting the upside outweighs the risk betting on corrective action.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:45 am
added to my position. Mondays have been up days. and most everyone knows that so it might be a good chance for the market to play a little trick this Monday. only thing im wondering about …. how much short selling is being utilised in order to move this market into the OPEX pocket. if alot, will these be covered next week. or, will it create some increased selling pressure. all we can really go with is the charts and TZA is bullish .. .very bullish imo.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:57 am
I’m in 3K TZA at $12.55.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
TA on a 3X ETF chart?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
morris, what else am i supposed to do with a 3x ETF chart. dart board? its a chart like any other. it tells a story about buy/sell sentiment.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
use the — IWM — chart … analyse it. buy TZA
——— UUP ———– looks like the 20ma is chasing down the 40ma here too. the chart does not look as bullish as TZA but it looks like the dollar is at least stablising a bit here.
Hi Woo and Idan. You guys awfully quiet today.
Hello, is anybody out there?
November 20th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
It’s Friday….LOL….These guys are pros, the pros are always quiet on Friday. ; ]
November 20th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
10-4
November 20th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
They got married. LOL.
May never be able to say nother word.
Wow, gold just won’t stop, everyone so neg on it, sooo many warns of 10% drops
that u no its going to 3000.
Professional black caucus to give speech today.critical of bamma. Employ so
bad they want Al Jolson back.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
everyone’s neg on gold? I think not. Very, very bullish I am.
I think most want a chance to get in on it, even if they speak to the contrary.
Bull markets give little chances to get in, and gold IS in a bull market.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
i actually agree ggg. gold is undervalued at the moment. you look at how oil was manipulated a few months back based on NO demand for oil, and just driven up falsely. well gold isn’t like that, the demand for gold is HIGH. india just bought tons of gold, and other countries will probably follow suit. with paper money going to crap, the only real faith anybody will have is in gold. i actually think that at the current moment, gold is still undervalued. it will go up more on demand alone, and from there, maybe it will bubble, but this rise in gold right now is no bubble, it’s supply and demand.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
You said it all, Woo, except I don’t think oil was neccesarily manipulated higher, unless you consider one of the intents of excessive liquidity was to drive oil higher, but I don’t think so, I think the opposite. IMO, higher oil is the unintended consequence of excessive liquidity.
I believe the oil market is a harder one to manipulate to any great extent.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
MrWoo, can u do a chart and show supp and resis for gold and sliver?
Also a chart for gold plated bars of lead being delivered from LME
warehouses pls. (www.kitco.com)
GLTA except the dirtbags selling lead as gold.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
where did you see about leaded bars? I find very hard to believe.
Got a link?
November 20th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
check this out Woo. Yes, very good demand.
Gold Price Change due to Strengthening of US Dollar -5.30
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying +9.20
Gold Price: Total Change+3.90
bull’s don’t wana let go 1088…. arrrgg….
——- PBI PUTS ——– +34.21% and im not letting go. JAN 25 …. lotsa time to go lower
Nice battle here at the 1088 level. Thinking if the bears don’t knock it down soon might see a nice rise. Biased though as holding calls.
November 20th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
from this price action i see one goal and only one goal for this market. SAVE SPY 109 . imho there is no evidence the market will make the effort to reach SPY 110 so it appears likely that they are goal keeping 109.
TZA…….if only we could get some cooperation from the rest of the market!
November 20th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
TZA price target. IWM double top of 62 …. ABC corrective to 54 on IWM . a close above $59.50 on IWM is negative for this trade. IWM=54 sell TZA for me.
WOW! I leave you guys for two days and you let the market tank! I am way under on my UCO, ERX and FAS….
have a great weekend
November 20th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
lol. this is why you need to be here everyday. best of luck jon!
somebody tell my why the big difference i TZA and TNAo day???
November 20th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
that has to be a mis-print …. if TNA -13% … TZA should be close to same. TNA should only be -2%….. strange.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Read above comment #12
November 20th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Just got me some TNA @ 34.67.. risking .12
anybody short RIMM?
— ZRAN – PBI — out pacing the market like a 3X ETF see no visible support in the chart other than a gap at $9.25 for ZRAN and for PBI … possibly in the $22 area. the PBI chart is a real mess so picking a target to the down side is a guess.
50ma at 1089.2….coming down to meet the 1088.7 fib…
could create double resistance…
November 20th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
feel like something is going to give next week. watching UAUA struggle to put the $7 calls in the money. have not had an OPEX week like this for many months.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
yeah….it’s going to get really interesting. this is not an area i like. it’s very hard to make solid calls on the market with where it is sitting. it’s below a number of significant points, and above some as well, we’re looking at 50/50 here short term, which is never good.
November 20th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
——– SPY 109 ——- if we get below this today. whoa! i sez. if we don’t it may just be wiggle and squiggle for a few days.
Suggestions please,im holding some EDZ triple bear emerging markets what would you guys do sell today or hold into the weekend.I know we have rallied on mutual fund Monday’s the past few but next week is an short trading week due to thanksgiving..Any indicators you guys see for a continued decline on Monday or do you think we rally? Thanks I am leaning towards a cash position at this moment.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
the only thing 100% certain right now is cash
November 20th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
ohh…that was deep….except the dollar is going to hell, so that’s also a losing bet hahahaha!
November 20th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
aint that dollar going to bounce? aint you holding the dollar if you are holding the EDZ? im trading the USD buying USD puts from CAD
November 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
go long AGU…it just broke out.
up we go…
November 20th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
yeay!
Short Candidates from Muathe; GOL, JADE, CROX, KFN, FRZ, GE ($15.54), GNW, XOM, AEM, DAN, GROW, LULU, CENX, FMCN, GOL, HWD, YHOO, BKD, LVS
November 20th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
& a little Celia Cruz, to get this friday started
http://tinysong.com/7FDj
November 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
You gotta be careful of that guy. I don’t think his membership has been doing very well recently.
yeah, he had a good march-early may, then hit a nice Long spurt in July but the last few months have been DREADFUL. He was calling Long FAZ at 38 with no stops.
Not sure if his tune has changed in the last 3 weeks.. He booted me from his service. No worries. I escaped with very little damage.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
saw him calling the death of FAZ and SRS … when did he call long at 38?
November 20th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKA0MS0219c
November 20th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Yeah, that was the irony. He originally called for FAZ under $1 ($10 now)… I guess it was late July when he thought the market was heading south. He was really wrong for most of August, September. He booted me Oct 9th. It was pretty ugly on the member boards.
On another note – I’ve been reading this site for 1 1/2 now as well as a few others. I don’t trade technicals anymore -instead use floor trading methods. But woo and Idan are very good analysts!
November 20th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Thanks Wasaki..
Yeah, I agree, his services might not be doing too good after that infamous call. I’m not a member of his services.. He posted this through twitter for free.. I’m actually scalping TNA per post 36..
I think he has changed his tone a bit.. he realised his mistake and posted a ‘I was wrong’ video on you tube.. His latest videos have had a much more neutral tone..
——– TZA ——— what will look good for this etf is a close above $12.40 imo. $12.27 is the key moving average 40ma $12.77 is the 20ma. a close above $12.40 should keep RSI above 50 and the moving averages pointing up. remain bullish.
YEAR END:
I can’t help but think of the comparisons between year end 1999 and 2009. While the circumstances at the beginning of the year are different, the way the next 6-7 weeks will play out may be similar:
My working theory is that TPTB (The Powers that be) WILL NOT allow the market to tank during the critical Holdoay season. This and Zee’s frequent reminders that historically the market NEVER tanks in December are worth heeding. Consequently, here is my favored scenario:
1. Near-term weakness to suck in bears (again) and set up a frantic year-end surge to new highs! Hooray! Everybody gets their big bonus!
2. First week of Jan: BIG DROP: Look at the 1999 chart. THEN…
3. WICKED WHIPSAW: Bears are trappped on Friday, Jan 8, and are CRUSHED the next Monday and beyond as we rally to even newer highs in Jan (while the distribution continues in earnest)
4. P3 shows up in the Feb – Apr timeframe for real. Buy FAZ, TZA, SDS and take the next 6 months off.
PUGridiron and others have EW charts that bear out this scenario.
Fritz, I value your analysis and I believe all of your sell signals will be validated…it;’s just that the markets have never been so manipulated via monetary policy, collusion AND program trading thanks to GS, etc.
I’m bummed I didn’t pull the trigger on TZA for Monday as it’s underlying will not participate as broadly in December’s blow-off, and would be a good buffer in case an external event uncontrollable by TPTB overwhelms their efforts.
1 hour left. time to use the strongest TA tool available.
everybody flip a coin and post your results here.
H (north): 0
T (south): 1
Tails
November 20th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Heads
November 20th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
coin sits on its side …….. amazing to see.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
I can’t remember a more boring day. yuck
November 20th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
i forewarned of this boring action to come in one of my last posts yesterday. shoulda brewed 14cups of coffee based on that post.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
yeah, I should have took the day off, I’m not really being compensated very well for all my hard work today!
November 20th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
lol. so we stopped at 1 heads, 1 tails and one on the side.
haha. the current area is slightly bullish overall, but not significantly.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
My coin is looking like the best predictor of market action right now. I’ll never trade without it again.
November 20th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
I got heads too. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market surprises next week with some not as good as expected reports out.
——– WFT.TO —– took my $200 profit on the 200 shares short i had on this one. it is more risky than my others shorts considering the bullish chart and the action im watching. it is lightly traded so it can really go against you if a buyer shows up.
——– MARKET BOUNCES ———- nothing in my portfolio of shorts has changed during this tiny few point bounce. the programs kick in to find the right stocks to push to 1090. this is pure and simple OPEX actions. SPY 109 is safe it appears. this action to me is neutral.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
—- UAUA — huvvering around the key strike of $7 all day. if they park this right on $7 i will be thoroughly convinced that no single entity controls prices LOL
———— TZA ———– now sitting right on my average strike price. however, still shaping up ok. im not really feeling great holding into a bullish monday. but i’ll try again.
I expect a good sized sell off the next half hour. Don’t think too many people want to be holding longs over the weekend. Still holding 100% short for the 4th straight trading week, and now down just 3%, but believe i can be even or even slightly ahead on some or all my 3xbear etfs by todays close. Downward we go.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Why would people not want to be holding longs over the weekend?
November 20th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Why would you want to hold longs after a trend reversal and into a downtrend?
November 20th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Why do you think there has been a trend reversal? I’m not saying that there hasn’t been one, but I think a couple of red days mixed in with lots and lots of green days does not look much like a trend reversal to me. I’d like to see a sizable correction downward but there is no way that bulls are worried about this kind of price action. No follow through at all by the bears today.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Good points Morris. I mean the trend reversal is in the process of taking place now, not that its completely established. So in light of that, my feeling that taking long positions would not be wise. Speaking of aforementioned sell off, here we go, albeit quite small, but should increase in the next 8 minutes in my opinion.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Looks like a mixed to flat close…Monday will be a down day, I think the Ron Paul amendment and the foreclosure issues are going to start dogging this market.
November 20th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Good point, makes sense to me. I also think the rally is really losing steam, and buyers are done buying for a while. Also the dollar is ready for a rally which I think we’ll see very soon. Dollar up equities down.
Think I’m going to hold my spy dec calls over the weekend. Never really like doing this due to the decay but think this market has a little pop left in it. Have a good weekend everyone and thanks to all who post on here.
——— LOL ———– im thinking about buying some IBM at $127.20 …… NOT