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4:30 pm update:
So we stopped at the next bit of fibs at EOD. the reason why i recommended pulling out half profits at 1096 is because there is still a chance that we could drop. this way you lock in profits, and if it falls, you can buy back in, but if it rises, you still have a good position on a decent number of shares. On an opex week friday, there’s too much risk, and decay will affect even december options strongly.
Original post:
Looks like the market is going to open lower. Will have to see exactly where it opens to see if we’ve had any real significant places broken or not. Top action is always a little more difficult to make short term scalps off of unless you’re really careful.
trend line at 1102 needs to break.
i would buy in a ton of calls here haha.
all my money is pulled from zecco (i hate them). and i found some extra money to stick back into a stock account, so i’ll be waiting for my new think or swim account to activate hopefully by tomorrow….
but i would have a ton of spy calls here… from 1088 to low 1090 areas. maybe even 50%+ of my portfolio…
let’s play pretend. SPY 111 strike dec calls. @ 1.71
November 19th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Be careful, we will see some pre options sell programs kick off at 3:pm today. This is a setup going the other direction for a change.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Woo – where do you see this move going to ?
November 19th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
He states below 1096 as a short term target.
1000 UCO @ 13.30
November 19th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
I entered too early @13.44. Will add more if it gets lower. GL.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
I will also add another 1000 if it gets to 13.00 or lower. Best of luck to you!
50ma at 1092.5 and coming down….if we break north of this, we could get a large rise.
About 3 days back, I posted that the SPX breakout above 1100 looked weak as it was on low volume. Also, RUT (Russel 2000 Index) made a lower high. When the market goes up, RUT leads the market higher. When the market goes down, RUT leads the market lower. Also, if you add RUT and SPX, it is not making new highs. This is a sign that correction needs to happen.
I was 80% long ABX (Barricks Gold) and 20% long SU (Suncor Energy). When I saw that the breakout will fail, I sold SU and hedged ABX with SPY puts. I posted these trades 3 days back. Made a nice profit on SPY puts and sold them about 10 minutes back. I am going to hold on to ABX as I am much too bullish on this stock.
I expect the market to backtest the 1100 line and I will buy some short positions than.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Great trades! Thanks for the update.
so the areas to watch today. when 1002 was broken to the south, that was a clear short/put position.
1088 was a fib that held, 1090 was a cluster of fibs which was large support that only broke to hit the fib at 1088. 1090+ is a solid call/long position
a break of 1090 from here on forward is a potential put/short position, a confirmation of 1088 break is a solid put position.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
50ma – 1091.8 coming to meet the current area soon…if we break north of this, watch out to the north…
November 19th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
50ma broke as expected, and we’re headed north…
MRO- To all those who like to play with Mastah Cramah. He just recommended MRO. In at 33.08 700 shares. Now trading at 33.15. Stop set at 33.10 now. I will unload this in the AH or pre-market tomorrow if stop isn’t hit. I think it was Palladin who mentioned this strategy a few days back. Tested this on Tues. with his CHU pick at 1:05PM.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Just wanted to add that CHU was up on Tues. when the market was slightly in the green as well. MRO might not play out that was today unless the market moves higher
November 19th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
GL. I tracked Crooner’s picks for a few days after Palladin’s post and about half worked out as Pallain said. Let us know how you profit. (!)
November 19th, 2009 at 10:17 pm
Decided to hold this overnight after seeing how it trader AH. Will def. get rid of this in the pre-market unless I see a big jump before the markets open. Either way, I will be out of this thing by 9:45 tops hopefully with a decent profit.
——– MOVE LOWER HAS TO CONFIRM ———–
dont forget… most of this move is a carry trade on the USD$ being cheap. this means many large market movers are trading on margin. many small players too have been buying the dips keeping from getting a margin call and ever increasing positions. in order for the correction to come. 1. the market must move down quickly and catch people off guard 2. the margin calls must come in 3. the market must stay down forcing margin calls to unload positions before the deadline. the previous moves lower were quickly rejected and im certain many margin calls were quickly reversed.
1096 area is short term target north. we can have a restroom stop there.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
thx woo, i’ll play out your vision for the day….i’m long SPY calls…pretty chunky
November 19th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
haha. currently fiddling with a long term 60 minute fib which is aroudn 1092.9 area.
need to be careful here too, just in case.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
If we break this area – can you share the next stops woo … 1096, then ?
November 19th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
if 1092.9 breaks, then the 60 minute allows for as much rising as the market wants, which means we have to look at the 5 minute and monthly charts.
5 minute says 1096, and then from there 1105, but the 200ma may cause a little bit of hesitation, which is currently at 1102.5 or so at the moment.
1088 break means 1083, and possibly even 1080.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Thanks Woo ..
I hate both gap up and gap down in stock market. You don’t know whether you should hold any position overnight or no. Could have been any signal during last two days that we may open gap down?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
If it was easy to figure out, everyone would make money trading.
Of course, the reality is that most traders lose. There is no way to know for sure what is going to happen on any given day.
Inthe$’s mid-day vid is worth the 6 minutes.
https://www.inthemoneystocks.com/n_rant_and_rave_blog.php
November 19th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
anyone watching fcx? Market can hammer everything into the dirt and fcx is the first to raise it’s head back up.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
Thanks for putting this on my radar.
FCX, for the most part moves with Gold and Copper futures and to a lesser extent the GDX. This could start to move lower. I’m seeing a bearish divergence on its DPO. Higher high on stock price (high on 11/18 high vs. high on 11/11) yet DPO made a lower high on 11/18.
Also, compare the open interest on Dec. puts vs. Dec. calls. Lastly, it’s trading aroudn the 61.8% fib from July ‘08 high to Dec. ‘08 low. Pullback could be imminent. I’ll be closely watching short-medium term EMAs and once it starts to flatten out, I will open 1/2 short position.
I think the key here is the market very clearly bounced down off the DJI bear market multi year trend line. Target would be the 9850 area (9900 by the time we get there I would think) that is the bottom of the current bull move channel.
It is from that point I would think when we find out if we are in a bear market or a bull market. Bear we break down from the channel, bull we move back up to challenge the trend line again in what would then be a wedge.
The top of that channel and the bear market trend line intersect here so without a monster move on the bulls part we correct down from here I believe.
——— TZA ———– if this can hold $12.40 today and confirm the move with RSI 50+ tomorrow. what id like to see for strong confirmation is a move and close above 55 on the RSI confirming a break in the RSI pull back from the last move higher. this would get me piling in short. have over 1/3 of my capital naked short at this time. remainder in cash
i think it will go down to test 1085 and then bounce back fore a right shoulder and then hasta la vista
every body inc. me was waiting for 1020 to play out, now i am not in for the downside.
we will jump on boad around the 1100 ariea
just a thougth
taking more off on sco, good profits. will leave rest (5,000) to eod with stops (13.05).
November 19th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
moved stops to 13.05
November 19th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
13.10
November 19th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Nice trade blackhawk
looks like nice consolidation before explosive move up….loading up more SPY calls here
November 19th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
bullish bear….. some time ago i was selling every rip. and when the market turned from 666 higher it took me from 888 and higher to learn that selling the rips wasnt working. dont get stubborn like me.
buy the dippers are fixed in the mindset of buying the dips. the market will love this as they unload positions in a downtrend. in order to unload, you need buyers. well trained buyers. be mindful if we continue lower that at some point buying the dip is no longer working. im not saying 100% for certain we are in a new downtrend. just dont make the same mistake i did when the trend changed and i lost some of what i made into March.
November 19th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
—- TZA —— coming back to test the 40ma again.
Big Drop…
November 19th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
how about a reason as to why?….
November 19th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
you did mean straight up right?…lol
Market is has now split the 10/20 EMA spread on the 15 min chart…this is is lending further and further to a reversal from this sell off…when the 10 EMA starts chasing the 20 EMA and crosses over, it will be lights out and back to the bullish trade…there is only so much room the SPY has in the current bollinger structure before is actually has to make up it’s mind, so to speak…as I write this…the 10 EMA is giving the structure ideal support now…that and the buyers are stepping in…
300 ERX @ 44.00
November 19th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Morris – looking forward to your post on trading UCO / SCO … do you think you will be able to post today ?
November 19th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
It will probably be tomorrow before I can get to it. Sorry, I’ve been busier than normal at work this afternoon.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
I get in around 42 tomorrow if I get lucky
November 19th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
and FAS will end up down 8% on the day as you predicted earlier, right?
——– TIMING IS EVERYTHING ——— end of day reversal seems to be coming in a bit early. this may lead to selling in the final 10minutes. im holding tough. from my experience and eod move like this in first half of the final hour is bearish for the closing 10mins.
guess we wait and see. TZA is what im watching. coming down the 40ma on the daily again. it still sits at $12.27 … what would keep me interested as a bear…. head fake below this price point now and then a close above it in the final 10mins.
In on dec spy 111 calls (spylg) @ 1.73
——— 5 DAY CHART HILARIOUS —— does the 5 day chart not make you laugh?
1090 to 1110 gappy gap gap to the top 1110 to 1090 gappy gap gap to the bottom
who done this. how many calls they buy before the gap up. how many calls they unload and then buy puts before the gap down. lots a cashola to be made in a market like this if you are in the know. lotsa cha ching.
Wow, finally another good day for me. Short for the past 3 1/2 weeks, and now only down 4%. Thinking about getting out now, but something tells me there will be a continued sell off the next 25 minutes and I’ll possibly be back to even.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
I am in same boat let’s hope this time bears can show up
November 19th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
but as everyone know bears are fking dead!
November 19th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
For sure. I’ve decided to hold overnight. I just think as I thought nearly a month ago, that there;s much more risk to the downside then to the upside at these levels. But I’ve been wrong before so we’ll see.
GS and APPL catching bids… Might see a nice rise here
———- TZA ———– has recaptured the RSI trend that started back in September. final 10mins should be interesting. it has now lost the 40ma as i expected. find out soon if this is a head fake or not.
there’s the 1096 area i was talking about.
a cluster of fibs here. needs to get north of it.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
just above it….. SPY 110 … is this the goal line for OPEX …
clearly 111 is out the window.
———– PBI ———– no real volume in the trade. confirmed candle stick pattern two bar break of $24.50 . failing to bounce here. up 18% so far in the puts. break even on TZA. looking for selling pressure to come in now.
going long overnight, think we gap up tomrw
i would probably sell half here, and hold the other half into tomorrow. there’s a good chance we head north, but there is still down side potential which needs to be accounted for. 1096 is a sell area for me, and half hold into tomorrow for potential.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
thx, will hedge some out based on your comment….
November 19th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Woo:
If the market does go up tomorrow, how high do you think it will go ?
Thanks
November 19th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
1105, if it makes past 1100, then ultimately 1120
November 19th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
possibly. i posted an updated chart above. you can see the resistance points north of here and south of here. we need to get back in those areas. a gap up would take us back at those trend lines, but not necessarily mean that we are above them. market isn’t going to give up money easily, so i would still recommend playing the DAY, and not holding large positions, or current month positions overnight (well today was the last day for november options).
biggest thing with stocks is that you want to minimize your risk. it’s like playing texas hold em, the one who understands probability and minimizes their risk will be the one who comes out on top in the end.
down side is still alive, and we’ll be hoping that the 1093 area serves as support from now on, but it might not.
the longer term channel allows for a drop to nearly 1070 or so, while still being bullish. in terms of trend lines and channels, we’re in the middle of a large one, this means lots of potential downside, and lots of potential upside.
Any predictions for tomorrow (opex Friday). I’m on the fence but leaning towards an up day.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
I joined you and Woo on those SPY calls.. I’m mainly a stock trader,, feeling a bit adventuresome..
Got mental stop if we break 1088,, Don’t think we are ready to go down yet though.. What target do you guys have for these calls?
November 19th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
i think it should be fine to hold into tomorrow, but if 1090 breaks i would get out. even 1093 breaking is a bit worrisome to me, if it’s starting up, u want momentum to continue. decay is not going to be friendly either.
but the upside is definitely huge if played correctly.
3:45 ……….candle 5min …. perty healthy looking if you are a bull . but no confirmation afterwards. if this market is boring you… you must be watching something else.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Dell down big time in ah…bad day tomorrow.
think a pullback off of 1096 is a buy….may get a shot at 1100 if we can hold at 1093…
———- NO INCENTIVE ——– there is really no incentive to sending the market much higher than here. SPY 110 is right in our face. BORING DAY TOMORROW is my prediction.
Dell getting beat up after earnings. Down 1.32 right now
November 19th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
SHLD earnings were poopy too. had my eye on that one for puts but passed.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Richard,
Great prediction yesterday that market would go down. However, I had a wrong guess that market was moving up based on the impression that SPY moved up at the last few hours.
When market is so volatile and TA analysis seems not working very well now. How can we trade market at such a situation? Wait until we see a clear trend?
What is the best way for we base on for market go up and down or the market is just manipulated by some big players?
November 19th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
if i was 100% certain about the broad market i woulda kept my SPY 111 NOV PUTS overnight… which i did not. i was confident in my positions ZRAN and PBI based on the charts plus fundamentals. i read about them both. im still very bearish on these two positions. long term.
you should be a net buyer of dell here for a retracement…this is like stealing candy from baby…15.30 is expected in AH right now with a buy at 14.85…
Will likely close tomorrow at some point based on market action. Don’t really like to hold anything over the weekends. Break of 1087-1088 and I’m ou and will likely close
November 19th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
@ 1105 – 1106
If you look at the SPX daily chart, you will see that it is in a upward sloping channel. The last few days, it came close to the upper boundry of the channel and bounced down. The lower boundry is near the 1040 to 1045 level. I did not see the energy in the downside to break the 1040 to 1045 level. We will need a lot more volume for the 1040 to 1045 level to break.
My intepretation of today’s action is not bearish. We are still in a trading range and only if the trading range breaking on the downside with heavy volume would cause me to be bearish.
Market close at my target of 10325-10350 as predicted. Look for an up day tomorrow with a potential retest of 10400s. I think market will find resistance there and pull back to 10350s. I will sell my 500 TNA in the morning as we go up.
took off stop on sco–will wait for gap fill on uco (extra profits), then sell, then watch–house monies!
Shoulda paid more attention to my own resistance line heh. It worked perfectly on the SPY
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A36632
There are some “potential” support lines drawn in on my chart. We’ll see which one works out as support. Seeing potential for the market to coil up here into a tight range, only to burst out one way or another.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
whoops i aint in no stinkin’ cash. I’m long. need to stop switching computers,
We had our 12-13 candles up from the previous swing low, our consolidation and now the move down to the next swing low. Assuming this isn’t an IT or LT top, the pattern is the swing low is $2 to $3 higher then the previous swing low. That puts this move down to around $106 or $107 on the spy before the next big move up for higher highs happen. If this is a trend change (which is too early to tell) then we will have to wait to see what happens.
Welp I have to say I think the USD is ready for a good solid bounce here. The EURUSD & GBP/USD are looking week on daily charts. USD/JPY is finding support.
I think people are getting to complacent about the idea the dollar is just going to keep falling indefinitly without pause or retrace. You should watch the USD closely , specificly the EUR/USD. If it looses support the market is going to correct hard as the carry trade unwinds sharply.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Pete just sent out a killer update from Citi with the belief that the dollar can bounce for the next 2 – 3 weeks.
Wow, great participation on stocktock in the after-hours.
My system fired “sell” on the DOW and SPX. Nasdaq missed the signal by 3 points (from HOD), so it’ll have to wait. I don’t adjust the criteria just to get what I want to see, so a miss is a miss. That said, both the DOW and SPX locked in the last “sell” signal on October 12 2007, while the Nasdaq only locked it in on October 31 2007.
Since my system sniffs for weakening of existing trend, a “sell” signal means the existing uptrend is losing steam. I will still respect it, but I will be more aggressive with “short and hold” now. I will only trade from tomorrow to next Wednesday. Black Friday hasn’t been bear friendly and low volume destroys volatility for options players.
I will close swing trade positions on December 1 2009. I will not trade between December 1 and January 4 except holding my long term short positions into September 2010. By December 7 I should have enough data to map out the next 10 months.
I am updating my system to see if more stocks locked in “sell” signals.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
Stocks that triggered “sell” today: DD, MSFT (second time in 6 sessions), GG (or G.TO), and ABX (or ABX.TO).
Yesterday, Obama told Fox News “Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession CAREN BOHAN | BEIJING, CHINA – Nov 18 2009 13:30″. When President gave such kind of warning, it really worrys me. On another side, analyst talked about the year end rally like last Christmas. Is possible that stock market will move up toward the end of this year and big tank 1st quarter of next year? Fritz is planning to hold short position for longer term.
Elliottwave guys analyse long term trend and said it is still in P1. I know several traders here are very good at market timing if anyone can predict when down trend P2 will happen, and how much it will be down?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
Who cares what the president says? Who cares what “analysts” say.
As for the elliott wave comment, do you mean P2 and P3? A popular count is that this is currently P2 and P3 will take us to new lows.
However, if the elliott wave forecasters can’t predict waves on the short or intermediate term, I find it hard to believe they would be any more accurate in the long term. The theory holds that the waves have a fractal relationship, so you can look at them over any time frame and should be able to predict the wave structure. The problem with EW is that the rules are so loose that there are many possible counts. All you can hope to achieve is increasing your probability of success.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Read “Elliott and Me” on Carl Futia’s blog: http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
That’s why I usually ignore EW for short term analysis.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:21 am
Interesting article. I’m amenable to most of his ideas save one. Putting EWT in the same category as astrology. That I think is going too far.
Where in fuck is aidsdan and woo? I know they are getting married (not that there is anything
wong with that).
Zee, u the ‘ring boy’?
A Taxpayer’s Must Read: The Fed Waltz With AIG
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34091840