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4:30 pm update:
So we stopped at the next bit of fibs at EOD. the reason why i recommended pulling out half profits at 1096 is because there is still a chance that we could drop. this way you lock in profits, and if it falls, you can buy back in, but if it rises, you still have a good position on a decent number of shares. On an opex week friday, there’s too much risk, and decay will affect even december options strongly.
Original post:
Looks like the market is going to open lower. Will have to see exactly where it opens to see if we’ve had any real significant places broken or not. Top action is always a little more difficult to make short term scalps off of unless you’re really careful.
trend line at 1102 needs to break.
be long or be wrong….at 1100, you wanna be fully loaded on the uside for a Friday test of 1125. be engaged….
November 19th, 2009 at 9:40 am
lol
November 19th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Market is going to sell off today, down volume this morning compared to previous sessions is impressive. By the dip here may not work as well as in the past, although I think we rally year end. This is going to be a tough few weeks for the bulls.
SPY is below my 110 support line. Balls. Looks like I wont be trading too much over the next few days.
woo so far looking good on downside?
The market is down 1.5% somebody call this P3.
Actually Obama called the bottom, maybe he called the top too?
November 19th, 2009 at 9:53 am
Impressive selloff. Elevator going down, Next Stop 1086.
Zee I am selling half of SDS around 36.60+
November 19th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Got out of TZA 2k shares was in at avg 11.35 sold at 12.30
my friend (the biggest contra indicator) just sold out of all his longs which he bought yesterday. mkt is going UP, UP and away!
November 19th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Not today it isn’t
what the hell is holding AXP at it’s new high! Market is down 1%+ yet it’s only down 1.4%… it it was green this dk would have been up 3%
November 19th, 2009 at 9:56 am
It has dropped about the same as the S&P today. Is there some reason why it should have dropped more than the S&P?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:08 am
AXP is dow component.. if you look at the chart for last 10 days you will see how it moved with market. it seem to only follow upside
Hmmm, shouldn’t have sold my FAZ position yesterday. I held my SCO position overnight and it is doing quite well this morning; I’d love to see 13.25 or higher on that. Best of luck to all today!
November 19th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Thanks morris. I’m glad I held overnight obviously.
I’m going to close SCO soon just to play it safe. I’ll start building a position in ERX if it hits 44.00.
sold 2000 shares of SCO @ 13.15 (up 3.95% from my average of 12.65); +$1000.00
November 19th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Nice! I haven’t sold yet, but may soon. Watching UUP for some guidance, though that correlation hasn’t been too solid recently. Other factors at play I guess.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Sold at $13.15. +4%. I’m watching UUP still. If it breaks up past 22.45 it might rocket and then I’d re-enter SCO.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Sold all SCO @13.18. GL.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:27 am
I started posting my trades in real time back in August. My definition of a single trade is one or more buys (to average into a position) with a single sell in the end. I am now 18 for 19 on these UCO/SCO trades since early August (94.74% winning percentage).
I keep track of the UCO/SCO trades separately since they are sequential (I never hold both at the same time). The spreadsheet calculates the percentage return on an initial investment for these trades. Right now, it is sitting at 141.71%.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:36 am
You’ve got some kind of sixth sense for this!
November 19th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Ha, I am good at being on the right side of the trade but I’m not so good at getting the best entry and exit points. Maybe learning some TA would help me with that.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Morris – are you thinking of going bullish on oil ?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Not right now. I want to wait to see if this dip gets bought before making any more moves. Also, I’m feeling a little burned out on trading right now and I think a day off before making any more trades might do me some good. What are your thoughts?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Well – I am obviously biased here
But I see that we are now hitting a trendline from Sept lows to early Nov lows … so I expect a bounce … but you have been better at calling it than me in terms of entries …
Can you elaborate what you mean by dip gets bought ? What timeframe etc do you look on ?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:59 am
I’ll do a post later on how I do the UCO/SCO trades. Stepping out now for an hour or two.
Guess its good to hold 100% short on Jan and March Puts from 1110+ as stated 3-5 days back. Question is will it be 10%, 20% or 50% drop from here.
From my previous emails one of the resistance level is being hit right now. 10280. We might get a bounce right here. My Target for TZA has been met 12.40 2000 shares bought at 11.36. I am selling right now. I will post when to reenter. 2000 dollars 3 days not bad. There is more potential to the downside but panic is not in just yet and tomorrow is end of Opex. If we break 10280 next stop is the 50 day SMA which right now sits at 10067.
I agree – 1085-1086 is my down target. good place for a right shoulder to set up.
I cashed in on of my xlf jan puts. Now only 80% march puts on spy + banks and 10% march calls on vix.
TZA long 5k at 11.23 stp at 11.29
———– THE TOP IS IN ————– believe i made a post that started like this yesterday. tightening moving averages… RSI RSI … im just up now to see what we have got this morning and have to admit im quite amazed. can i have my SPY 111 PUTS NOV back? LOL … id have to say that this action may turn the DAILY CHART into a confirmed bear.
—- PBI —- confirmation of a move lower. it is outpacing the SPX
— ZRAN — confirmation of a move lower. it is outpacking the SPX x 2
my PUTS are out to next year and im holding them. the PBI puts were actually quite cheap compared to others because the volatility in this stock was so tame.
GO SHORT or EAT TORTE
Crazy high volume red bar on Faz (if accurate)
http://stocktiger.com/live/faz15.php
November 19th, 2009 at 10:27 am
now green bar, very high volume
——— MIDDLE OF OPEX WEEK ———– you have to wonder… in the back of your mind… when the big boys PAWNS come out in the middle of OPEX week and HAWK OUT LOUD. did one of TIMMYG’s friend’s buy up my SPY 111 puts? look at the action delivered over the past few days. great action for people to give up short term risky plays and “keep it safe” while those in the know can eat those bets up and make 100% return in a few days. am i paranoid or is this sudden change in tone from passive to agressive rhetoric timely?
And as always, I got out early in SCO (it’s @ 13.35 as I type this).
November 19th, 2009 at 10:47 am
So am I. I was too tied up with other gold stocks and didn’t watch it closely. My initial target was $13.65; see if it gets there.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:52 am
DZZ is making a nice move (finally).
November 19th, 2009 at 10:55 am
UCO now way under it’s 200 EMA. MACD has turned down. UUP inching up.
Maybe I should re-enter SCO for a scalp
this is the last choo choo train to hop on before you see 1125….look how quickly folks get bearish as soon as mkts corrects 1~2%.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:46 am
many stocks are correcting much more. the last times we have seen the market correct you did not have all indicators yelling sell. id be careful buying this dip. really careful. you may not want to short right here. could see a little boune tomorrow so you can get a ticket on the short train then.
there is only 4 points seperating the SPX 20ma and 40ma. we have not seen that alll the way up. if those moving averages cross next week id be running for the exits or at least hedging your bets.
be short or eat torte
November 19th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Bullish Bear, the market does not go up forever.. it’s entering a correction wave…
Cycle theory confirmed the top on Nov 16th. Now we are entering a major downtrend until December 1st 2009. This theory will remain TRUE until 1130 on the SPX gets taken out.
I might add a fairly large position of 105 DEC SPY PUTS if we double top at the 1110 area…I hold only 16% of my portfolio long, and 84% cash. It used to be 25% short but I already made 4% on SDS and sold it.
THE TOP has been confirmed by cycle theory. Those going long are going to REGRET IT.
This does not bode well for the bulls at all. My SDS has already reached its 37.00$ target on DAY 1 of the sell-off.
I expect a 5-10% correction coming in the next 2 trading weeks.. Watch the hell out bulls. I would NOT BE BUYING until 1035. DON’T BE TEMPTED TO GO LONG.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:49 am
what is the date for the next uptrend?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:53 am
It’s not 100% known yet.. too many permutations
Right now it looks like December 1st to December 15th will be the new uptrend.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:53 am
are you still holding SDS? I sold little early but hey profit is profit….i am still learning..
November 19th, 2009 at 10:55 am
No, I sold for profit.
I’m looking to re-enter massive amount of shorts at 1105.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Zee – so you are expecting a move up to 1105 – do you think it can go higher than that too ?
AXP – strong support @ 40.68-40.75 …. after that a steep fall to 39.60 or 39.30
November 19th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Anjali – are you out of STI calls?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I just hope AXP can kill this stong support level. It seems to be holding very well above that.
Zee, that’s what i’ve been hearing for the past few weeks….and it’s been wrong time after time, this will be just another bear trap. trust me…
November 19th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Timing is everything, NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BE LONG.
Probability is VERY UNFAVOURABLE.
Check out my posting about how much the S&P goes from nov 02 to jan 1st.
historically, FV OF THE s&p is at 1060, what are you talking about going long?
November 19th, 2009 at 10:59 am
This is just probability and numbers.. but since 1964, the market has gone up on average 4% from nov 02 to jan1st of the following year.
Right now we are already up 4% from the average.. If your long, it’s not the end of the world if you believe this to be a bull market, but your likely not going to exit until next month. How do I come up with 1060, well it’s the nov 02 date + 4% historical return on the S&P from Nov 02 – Jan 1st.
GL
i recall yesterday Fritz said that today all sell signal may happen. confirm?
still watching ERX for a possible entry point (for a risky scalp play)
November 19th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Me too! Looking to enter the trade @43.50 or better. GL.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:19 am
I went with FAS instead.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:35 am
GLTU
where’s nastrades the clown that said bears f’king dead just yesterday.,
November 19th, 2009 at 11:26 am
I am here bears are dead…. wait until they start tanking $
Hey guys. FOX of all places is carrying the Timmy hearing with no breaks for those interested in this pathos.
——— ZRAN ——— down 4.5% and traded 25% of the daily volume in first 1.5hours. its like every buyer cancelled thier order. this could get very interesting today.
200 FAS @ 76.00 (just for a scalp)
November 19th, 2009 at 11:27 am
do you have any stop in place for FAS?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:29 am
it might be -8% for FAS today! I am short at 77.33 with stop at 76.99
November 19th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I do not have a stop in place right now. I am watching the position closely. Obviously I do not agree that FAS will end up -8% for the day. Good luck to you!
I am looking at setting a swing long trade very soon. I am watching this 10260 level very closely and if does not break for the next hour or so I will go Long using TNA with a target for DJI of 10325-10350
November 19th, 2009 at 11:29 am
good to see your post. I’m looking at TNA if we hold the day’s lows into 1200 market time.
Just taking a few minutes break from work to post this significant development today: “sell” signal should be locked in by the DOW & SPX. “Sell” signal triggered across the board on big cap stocks. To prevent the “sell” signal from being locked in at EOD, bulls must push the DOW and SPX to new highs AND close them at HOD.
Bullish bear, you have a lot of work to do.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Thanks Fritz for your updates. GLTU.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Thanks Fritz for your valuable input!!!
Does this mean it is a good time to start building a position of BGZ (3x bear large cap ETF)?
I have placed a small side wager of 500 TNA at 39.61 that we will move up to 10300’s by afternoon. I will swing this bet into tomorrow. Of course I have a tight stop at 38.80.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:29 am
be careful, could be down as much as 200-300 hundred my 3:00pm. Mr Market did not like the mortgage data, 2010 will be a P3 kind of year.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I am gambling wiht house money right now
November 19th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Not disagreeing w/ your belief the market’s headed lower. But a 300 pt drop all at once? Not so sure about that. But am interested in where you came up with 200-300 by 3:00pm.
thnx
think the upward push has begun…..good luck bears
————– DOWNSIDE —————- this may be it for this week. dont forget it is OPEX and the market has adjusted to a more favourable price for writers. ive put in an order for TZA against the 40ma and i’ll wait for the market to come in to that price and adjust accordingly. SADLY i was stopped out of my TZA at $11.40 the other day. this is a tough game.
still holding F – UAUA – ZRAN short
still holding PBI and IBM puts
added small position in WRLD $25 JAN PUT
added late yesterday the lightly traded WFT.TO short shares
Dollar starting to slide again (lightly positioned short the dollar atm across 2 pairs.) Going to wait for the market to retrace the gap before I get out of my C position (stayed in bed today with the little woman missed my premarket exit I had planned).
There are many expert here, so I have a question for all you guys. What type of cross over on moving avergaes I should uses as a buy / sell signal? Please tell me that on 15Min or 60MIn interday chart and also daily chartss.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
im watching the 20/40 on the daily as they close the gap. also watching the RSI which has confirmed the bearish tone. it failed the upper trend line to confirm the divergence yesterday.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
TOOK ———- TZA ——— $12.27 … posted earlier i was a buyer at the 40… so im now in. see if it can close above the 40 by eod.
Huge flare to 111.30 on the SPY …. !!! Be careful on the short side …
November 19th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
i also see that huge flare….
should make this really interesting…
remember that we’re still in a strong bullish channel overall on the larger charts. don’t pile in naked short just yet…
November 19th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Woo, how often do flares play out?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Hey Woo : ) – good morning …
Could you post your updated SPX chart …
Also – does AAPL look like a good entry here ?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
The flare along with inv H&S on the 10 min SPY is making me very cautios on the short side …
i told u so…..be long or be wrong, this is a mega bear trap before the breakout into 1120~1130 region.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
C’mon man give it a rest.
Bought UCO@13.44. GL.
Out of C @ 4.23 (in @ 4.24), in FAZ @ 19.62. Out of my light short dollar positions, reversed to long dollar across 3 pairs.
Would have waited to move out of C a bit but must head out to work. Happy trading all !
STI recovering nicely … back above the broken support from this am … of 21.86 … now if it can confirm the break of it …
SPY inv H&S – head complete with neckline … now forming RS …
bot 500 contracts of Qs, Dec 45 calls..
The next wave down has begun. Be short or listen to Bullish Bear
watch for that flare on SPY to 111.3…….a big one
November 19th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Yes – see #37 …
Well worth a quick look at Adam Hewison’s take on weather this market is topping or not. Check out his latest video > http://tinyurl.com/ykeuho2
lots of flares north… 3 on ToS. 1 huge one on zecco.
i think the small ToS flares may play out before EOD, but the large zecco one might not. we’ll see.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Woo – where are the 3 flares on ToS pointing to ?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
2 of them point to 110.05 or so.
there was one earlier in the morning that pointed higher. the main one to watch at the moment is for 110.05.
there are a cluster of fib supports here at 1090.
this area should hold. 1088 is last line of defense, if that breaks we’ll probably see 1080. but i almost DOUBT that 1090 will break.
Every time we’ve had a decent red day since early March, the bears have gotten all excited only to get crushed soon afterwards. This may be the beginning of a new trend downwards or it may simply be a brief pause before the rally continues. The bulls have been in complete control for months and they have the benefit of the doubt until the bears show that they can actually follow through on this move. Trade carefully in this area.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
all those previous moves are to wipe out the little bears im sure. when the move does come,, like possibly now,, only the big boys will make big bucks.
TZA looks like an IHS in the making as i posted the yesterday? not sure. but it has made a higher low and the MAs are shaping up ive bought at the 40 just a bit ago. the neckline is way up at $14.50 …. stop is in at $11.77
November 19th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I would like to see a sizable move down here. I just want people to be cautious until we see some confirmation. Remember, a couple of red days would actually be good for bulls since a rally with no corrections is unsustainable.
so which one it then…the next wave down or get long to 1120…lol
Every bear out thinks this is the turn…how many bear traps have been sprung since July? Could this just be another? What makes this different? Are these not the same indications that trapped the last set of bears?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
When Merrideth Whitney comes out and says double dip,that means it is getting close.The market can only rise so much on stimulis sooner or later fundamentals have to be the catalyst.Let me ask all the Bulls here this.If the goverment pulled the plug on all the liquidity that it is injecting into this market,what do you think would happen ?
November 19th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
you are seriously using MW comments to me for a leg down? I think as trader you might be able to do slightly better than that….If I am not mistaken, her comments were earlier in the week, and hell, the banks rallied..
on a technical basis, the has not broken from it’s up trend, it still sits in it’s defined channel up and has actually crossed over the master down resistance line from Oct 2007…1120 is a key number on two accords…1) It is the 50% retracement of the move down, 2) There is an open gap that exists at 1120 from Nov 2008. That gap’s fill time is long over due.
a weekly chart of the SPY confirms the current direction and until the red line and lower green line fail, the market continues with bullish bias…
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/7510/spyweeklywithchannels.png
I have removed a bunch other stuff from this chart for easier viewing
anjali = http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p85038865997&a=181738042
see the cluster of fibs here? that should hold. if this area breaks, then bears are really going to load on for another 8-10 points drop to 1080.4 or so.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
thx woo, i am quite long now and watching for the SPY to reach its flare at 111.3 by day’s end. we will see….
November 19th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
For some reason this black chart does not show …
also a possible inverse H&S playing out here. be mindful of a possible gap up.
1088-1090 is very significant.
November 19th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
you are awesome, thx….just bot some more calls to see that play out!