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17
Nov
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3:35 pm update:
Is it just me or does 1115 look like a good place for the SPX to head to short term? trend line is holding. we’ll see how the last 30 minutes of the market acts.
Original Post:
So looks like the market is back within the channel. I’m thinking that we could possibly drop back south towards the light blue line on the monthly, and maybe even the 61.8% fib projection around 1098 on SPX. Futures are down a bit as expected after not rising enough above the intraday trend line that is pretty easy to see (I haven’t drawn it in). I would still consider grabbing a call position if the 1098 area hits. I would be careful if we drop below 1098 and place stops there on any call or long positions entered around there. the 200ma is also sitting there.
Also recently we’ve had some calls for additional moderation within the forum. Sorry about that guys. I’ll try my best to moderate a bit more. I didn’t expect the conversation to get so off topic. Joking is completely fine (and I know most agree), but some of the comments did get a little out of line. They weren’t necessarily offensive, but when I read them, it did raise some minor flags for me, which I think we should be careful about. Remember that we aren’t the only readers on this site, and though a few of us may get very comfortable, any racial or gender jokes can be taken out of context and can be offensive to some. I would say it’s better to NOT test the line, then to test the line and end up with negative results. Not saying don’t joke or that we don’t appreciate humor, but to be careful.
Remember the main focus is stocks and T/A. I’ll delete some posts here and there to keep the peace and order. Hope nobody is offended for what is posted, for what is left posted, and for what is deleted. Thanks for everyone’s understanding! Let’s all make some money and have a good time while doing it.
If you are holding TZA I will be placing a trail stop on it once we hit 11.70. I will monitor market action and indicate new entry point.
November 17th, 2009 at 8:02 am
JROD can you share what is your target for TZA ?
Also, can you share where you are expecting a drop till ? I know you were looking for 10,500 this week …
November 17th, 2009 at 9:18 am
I am also in this trade, but can’t wait to get out of it. I think the pullback will be modest at best as I feel we are going to push higher over the coming weeks. There’s not much resistance left to push through, kind of like the lack of support in March…
Paladin can you post a link to chris’s site..Thanks…. I do not get involved in non related market issues as to avoid confrontation as I have enough of that at work.I would be curious to check out other opinions and sites not that im disapointed in this one but IMO more opinions is better for me.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Feel free to post links to chris’ site. We definitely appreciate diverse opinions on stock. We’ll leave racial issues outside of this site, they have other forums for that. this isn’t a freedom of speech issue, this is a focus issue for a stock site.
Paladin – You need to calm down. This is a free site and there are a number of committed traders who are posting here. I am finding that I am getting tremendous value from Zee’s comments. I never used to do cycle analysis and started doing it after watching him, I have started doing the same. It has helped me become a better trader. If you don’t like someone’s startegy, there is no need to bash them. Better to ignore it and move on
November 17th, 2009 at 7:59 am
Touche !! – there are differing opinions here – embrace what works for you and leave the rest behind and move on …
As I mentioned yesterday I won’t be able to post intraday comment this week. I just want to let everyone here know that AMZN triggered a “sell” signal yesterday. ABX is close to triggering a “sell”. AXP volume yesterday looked like capitulation short covering and institutional distribution. I think when the data on short interest comes out this Thursday, I should be able to find most stocks having the same short interest as prior to the market top in October 2007. Shorting is a survival game, and not many people can last a long time in this game, leaving only the strongest hands. Like I have always advised: hedge you positions.
November 17th, 2009 at 8:09 am
Fritz – Thanks for your ABX analysis. I value your opinion. One of the challenges with holding a stock is that you get biased and sometimes miss the obvious. I will be watching it carefully and may get out. Yesterday, I moved from 100% long to 25% cash and 75% long. My longs are fully hedged with SPY puts so if the market drops, I will not get hurt. If the market hits 1025 to 1030, I will be using the cash to buy SDS shorts
November 17th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Fritz, thank you very much for your time and explaination of how to hedge and profit.
do your self a favor and be long! that’s all i can say…..happy breakout leads to happy family
November 17th, 2009 at 9:39 am
your suggesting to go long today ?
November 17th, 2009 at 9:57 am
yup, the scarier it gets, the more long u need to get!
Still holding 3K PLD and 700 ICE. Hedging with 3K TZA.
I’m still holding two shorter term positions; 1000 FAZ at an average of 19.40 (500 on Friday @ 20.00 and 500 yesterday @ 18.80) and the 1000 SCO that I bought yesterday @ 12.87
best of luck to all today!
Sold all TZA @11.63 (bought @11.15 yesterday). GL.
sold SPY puts I bought yesterday for a 3% gain. I’ll wait for a bounce to buy puts again.
Anjali are you trading aapl options? I think woo was saying buy calls if it breaks out of $210?
November 17th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Hey – I had an AAPL spread that I closed for a 15% profit yesterday not looking to buy AAPL right now …
November 17th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Nice job. I’ve been trading aapl options intra day on the days I’m off work and it’s been working well. If I can get a 3-10% profit intra day I’m happy
because I use just 5-10% of my account value.
Dunno guys , I know everyone and their mother is calling for a drop , but so far this just looks like a nice healthy back test of the SPX multi year bear trend line. I would be worried here about a rally.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I would agree if the dollar would weaken.If the dollar holds this market will not rally IMO..
– SPY PUTS 110 NOV — out of the rest this morning . managed $0.63
not trading them anymore. have some DEC 29 TWM CALLS and have half
my position in TZA
short ZRAN DRE WRI MGRC …….. have limit buy orders to cover the last two
have just 2 puts in HD that i got yesterday at $0.77 DEC 27 ….. just for the earnings call. go small or get slammed into the wall LOL. of course im up 60% on those because i only took 2.
charts that look bullish quickly turn bearish and the other way around. things that worked a year ago certainly aint working today. staying small while i get my head around this.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:25 am
——- PBI ——- price action is making me laugh . 20/40 cross and consolidation on the even strike price of $25. save that drowning devil.
Looks like aapl is in a bullish wedge on the 5 min chart with tartget of $205.50 – 205.60 I may pickup a few calls in that area.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:45 am
aapl broke out of the bullish wedge along with a positive divergence on the 5 min but it doesn’t look convincing, weird market today.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Bought aapl Dec 210 calls 5.45, mostly likely will sell today.
I’m not liking the action right now. I may close my FAZ or SCO position (but not both) just to be safe.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:37 am
EUR/USD seems to be finding support at a 50% fib. We’ll see if it holds.
Seems we ended yesterday right on the upper channel line of the DJI. So if we rally today it will be a break of the many months long channel we have been in. That would be very bullish I should think for stocks. It would also scare me from an inflation stand point.
bears can’t do much damage to this uptrend, pretty clear by now….this intraday move is setting up for a nice push into new highs, i clearly see spx at 1120~1130 now…with hopes for 1250 by yr-end which would play out the inverse h&s as i talked about 6 months ago.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:52 am
I must admit it seems until the Fed appears and says “we are raising rates” this inflation driven rally is going to continue.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:55 am
I would get very nervous when the market hits 1121 area and I would not hold any more than 25% long position. We all like to make money no matter what direction.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:57 am
1250 by year end is quite bullish. I don’t know if the market has time to do that. There would need to be another decent size correction in there to get to that level.
However, I don’t think the 1200’s are out of the question at this point, but my target is closer to February rather than EOY.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
think 1999……i say this time to time again……rewind the tape and watch 1999, sentiment, rhetoric from traders……everyone was in disbelief and it just kept on going and going and going….like energizer bunny. that’s the nature of a strong, liquidity-driven rally
TZA not working all that well as a hedge……at least so far!
sold 1000 SCO @ 13.02 (up 1.17% from my entry yesterday @ 12.87); +$150.00
Eh, I’ll take it at this point.
November 17th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Wow, I was out for an hour and I see that getting out was a smart move (SCO is around 12.70 now as I type this). Whew!
i have to run off to a dentist appointment, but here’s a linkable SPX 1 month chart on stock charts
i’ll post the actual chart later when i get back. leaning bullish at the moment:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p85038865997&a=181738042
——– THE FED ———- has something else up thier sleeve. some unprecedented way of taming inflation without raising rates . the language used is hilarious. its a secret bandaid or potion. any bets they dont raise rates but legislate the banks to charge everyone more for loans? this way the banks can still enjoy windfall profits and the common folk can continue to suffer the pains of unemployment and living off government hand-outs. who knows.
I KNOW THIS MUCH. ………. this aint bearish action so far. looks like SPY 110 is the target for OPEX and their is no fight coming from the BEAR CAMPS so im throwing in the towel. ive covered most positions ………. keeping PBI
see what happens at the end of the week.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
SPY can still go higher.. .yeah… i still see it trying to hit 112.50-113 before it makes a strong reversal lower.
The markets are extremely bullish. Markets won’t go down when dollar is up today; when dollar tanks, markets will zoom higher on dollar weakness.
Hoping for a correction in gold so I can add more.
November 17th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
I think it will correct soon.
1000 SCO @ 12.72
November 17th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I am joining you on this trade; bought SCO @12.70. GL.
November 17th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
I don’t think it will happen but I will consider adding more if it goes under 12.60 today.
November 17th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Next support level is $12.25-12.35.
November 17th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
I’m coming in as well. Looks like it might be starting to run. I was hoping to see UCO go a little higher though, to the top of the channel.
@rich – I think the fed and gov are running out of hat tricks….news is going to start being construed as more negative soon…almost bubble pop time
November 17th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
agreed woo…
what else can they do…all out of bullets, gonna be firing blanks soon..can’t do anymore stimulus stuff..what else..already did houses, cars, now what, appliances??? plus we’re at 0%, look at japan when they went to 0…took forever to recover…we’re in trouble folks big time trouble
November 17th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I agree, the Fed is talking too much in regards to their fears. In my opinion, there are some real concerns as ilustrated by their fedspeak.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
definitely. we have over a trillion dollars in various stimulus money that magically came from nowhere. home and auto buying incentives that aren’t exactly giving the boom they expected or called for. universal healthcare anyone? yeah, that will REALLY help our economy right now. banks changed absolutely nothing that got them in the mess they were in months prior. employment is not going to improve. it’s not like china or any country is going to want to buy any more of our debt.
but the recession is over. and the economy is going to improve despite all the above things because the fed and government fixed it by… well… they fixed it. and remember that 15-30 years from now (somewhere around there) the stock market will be higher than it is now (even though there’s a slightly high chance we could hit new lows before then), so invest now before it’s too late!
*pop* when this bubble pops we’re going to fully smell all the B.S.
but we must play their game. whether the move north is driven by earnings or unemployment, rate changes, a bernanke speech….we play the game, and the charts give pretty good direction. frankly we could not read the news and just play the market strictly by the charts and do fine (at least that’s what i believe). philosphy is good. understanding market economy is great. but we’re here to make short term and long term profits. and our reasoning is based on opportunities that the charts give us. so no matter what inclination you have for wanting to go short, put it aside, unless the charts tell you to go short/put. belief or hope or even certain kinds of logic don’t equate to profits on the stock market. in the end it’s all math, numbers…and making money is all that matters.
WFC in a H and S???/ on the daily…this thing is doomed..market crawling and xlf not participating…bombs away..
At this movement in market, it can reach 1120-1140 area not breaking any trend line / resistance by just moving sideways for few days. Is that not amusing?
OIL up and $ UP? weird. Oil is disconnecting ?
November 17th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
A move in oil is never just about the dollar.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
So what else…supply? or consumption elsewhere?
November 17th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Some data came out today that showed US factory output increased which can possibly raise oil demand.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Aahh…thanks.
Let see if the $ resumes the downward trend tomorrow
I’m leaving early today and I’ll be out most of the day tomorrow. I do not plan to make any more trades (entries or exits) today unless the market makes a sizable move in the next 15 minutes. Best of luck!
Low volume day today. Not too many buyers at current prices
here’s the updated 1 month:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-44?context=user
that trend line is holding nicely and has only broke for fib hits and for that MA hit today. that’s bullish in my book.
this may consolidate into EOD, but i say we head to 1115 if that line holds. i’ll also place this update at the top.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
we could 3 wave drop to 1096, but there’s so much support there, that i doubt we get below there. if we hit 1096 area, i would probably grab a decent call position. no november options should be held overnight, it’s too risky. i would consider a december call position, and add to it, if it drops.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Anyone buying calls into the close for uber bullish opex Wednesday.
Thanks woo.
A trend change perhaps for C…it may close higher today.
Meridth Whitney comment went unheard-well thats a change..
on a day like this, bears had SO many chances to bring this down. trend line break, and hit fib, but bounced and back above the trend line. MA break and it bounced off the trend line and went back north of MA, then it broke trend line to hit the MA, but bounced and went back above the trend line. failed attempt after failed attempt.
November 17th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
market not even remotely overbought…
nice rise just now….
1115 i would consider shorting, but only for a scalp.
my current top says 1118 on the 60 minute and 1122 on the 5 minute. this means, we’ve got to hit it and retreat fast. if this scenario comes true, the 1122 area would be a trap for bears to get better position on their shorts/puts. this is going to get really interesting this week…
November 17th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Trap for the bears ? So are you seeing this move higher ?
November 17th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Yeah, I still think overall we’re headed a little bit higher. It’s crazy to think that we’re almost there though..
November 17th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Do you have any numbers to share Woo ?
I think 112.30- 112.50 on the SPY will be the next test for this market.
Here’s my take. I really think the trend line connecting all time highs from oct 07 is playing out as resistance here. Might just be a coincidence, as it seems logical that we move higher from here. Just an idea, we’ll know soon enough.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A36608
November 17th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Ooooh your using SPY. For a minute there I couldn’t understand why your trend line didn’t match up with mine even though I connected the same points on the spx chart. On the spx chart we have already broke that trend line if I recall (not at my trading computer atm).
Ya know I’ve never done a comparison , I wounder which provides more clearly defined moves off trend lines and such , SPY or SPX.
November 17th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
I’m going to try charting SPX. I’m wondering if SPY is easier to manipulate so they play games with these trendlines.
Who was pumping IOC interoil here?
Soros added to its position, anyone have the long term targs?
Literally every single blog/video subscription that I cycle through is bullish calling for a move to 1115-1121 on the SPX. It also seems very rational for the market to move there.
What do you suppose that means?
November 17th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Surely this could just be a coincidence, and I would not make any bets either way based on a seemingly unanimous call for 1120, but I do find it interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRe9tU0YWg8
prechter
Woo,
Do you know anything about various viruses at api.ning.com? When I click on your charts I get multiple virus warnings re: api.ning.com. I see that your charts are located at this address… Any feedback would be appreciated.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:25 am
hmm…no viruses that i’m aware of, stocktock uses that on the social page for when you zoom in on files. so the files are stored there when uploaded.
November 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Ok. Thanks for your reply and all your hard work with the charts!
Hey this is a nice looking blog, I was just searching for this last night. Pleased I finally discovered what I wanted.