2:05pm
Woo: There was also a small flare down to about 111 on the SPY that hasn’t played out on the 5minute chart. So that short position that Idan is talking about may be a good idea. Looking at a minimum 7 points or so drop here. Could also see a potential drop to 1098 for a trend line and fib projection hit.
1:50pm
Idan: I am looking for another potential move up here to go short… the Dow Jones has hit it’s 50% retracement of the bear market, and I believe if i can go short at 112-113 on the SPY i’ll be rewarded with another 5-20% move to the downside.
——————————-
Original post by Woo:
So the market is back north of a the November monthly trend line, and futures are up a good amount. I’m still leaning towards this going up into new highs as I’ve been saying for a while now.
Here’s the SPX 1 month:
The futures move puts us above the 50ma and 200ma on the 5 minute monthly chart. it also has the 50ma crossing north of the 200ma, which is pretty bullish. We also cross north of the 61.8% retrace of the drop. We’ll have to see how the market opens though. There’s a chance we could retest that line, or consolidate more, but there’s also a chance we could skyrocket north into new highs. The trend lines north of here are WAY up there, and we’re running out of fib forecasts towards the 1122 area on the 5 minute 1 month. Same with the 6 month log chart.
6 month 60 minutes SPX:
This market won’t give in so easily, so don’t be surprised if you get a drop. However, I would buy drops, and sell rises, as opposed to vice versa, till that 1120s area hits on the 1 minute chart. From there I would start taking strong put/short positions.
So I may not be posting as actively in the intraday for some time, depending on how things pan through. Perhaps this is too much personal information for a stock site, but since I have interacted regularly with many of you for a couple months (maybe even over a year for some), I thought I would update a bit. I was very recently approved for a loan towards a condo, and escrow will be closing very soon (maybe even this week). I am pulling out all my stock earnings to pay for the down payment towards the condo (so that I don’t have ridiculous mortgage payments). I’ll also be getting married in March. So I won’t have any money in the market till possibly February of 2010. This means that even though I want to take the opportunity to make tons of profit on the drop down, the condo and wedding and honeymoon costs come first. So since I won’t have any personal money in the market, there is less incentive for me to wake up at 6:00 AM PST when my work starts at 9:30 AM PST. I’ll still post updates, and try to update during the intraday (so that at least others can make money), but it will definitely be less. This is not goodbye, and I have too much pride to try and not figure out market action short and long term, even if I don’t gain anything from it. Wishing everyone the best. I will still make sure to post the intraday everyday till Idan is back from his business trip, and after that, I’ll at least try and have a weekend update for everybody outside of the intraday comments I’ll try and post while at work. Good luck to all! – Woo
Congratulations Woo on starting a new chapter of your life. I wish you all the best.
Fritz, from your work when will woozies marriage peak and how long before his
wife turns into a bear ?
I could offer my detailS but have been married 4 times so not to be taken
seriously. . . .the only married advice i can truthfully give any off y’all is when she
hits 200 S E L L !!!!
(AS IN #)
Rumor is that woo was the successful bidder on madoff’s apartment so we best
start hitting the donate button more often.
LOL….
But seriously….Congratulations, WOO!
Great to hear woo, no one *(except for maybe me and i’m too old to enjoy her) deserves
a happy married life more than woo.
Best of everything to you and the new woo-ette . . . . note of caution on the honeymoon,
don’t give details to zee, he might decide to join you.
I won’t be posting intraday updates this week either as I am extremely busy at work. I will be posting comments only a minimu of two hours after market close.
Futures are heavily in the green so far, I don’t know if it made new highs, and if it did, you can be guaranteed that the cash index will also make new highs once the market opens. As far as opex Mondays are concerned, they have statistically been the most bearish day of an opex week, and Tuesday being the most volatile. Statistically, you don’t want to be a bear on opex Wednesday as it is the most bullish. Opex Thursday and Friday are generally non-event days that eats the theta value of your options. So if you hold options that expire this Friday, you’d want to get rid of them on Wednesday if you hold calls, and Tuesday if you hold puts (unless the market is in a serious downtrend, which it is not currently).
I don’t even know if I want to hold any puts right now as the market just wants to obliterate anything in its path. Remember the Nasdaq in 1999? It also ‘looked tired’, only to go on and blast off from 2200s into 5130. I’m not saying the same thing could happen here, but you want to be very cautious if you’re taking a bearish position.
Never trade without hedges. If your account is setup to trade options, I advocate long with double put or short with double call. That way you make money no matter what direction the move is, as long as it is a significant move. The only way you lose in that situation is if you’re unlucky enough to pick a stock that moves sideways. If you are long a 2X or 3X ETF (I know most of you like to do that), to hedge your position you ALWAYS go double put. These ETFs are designed to be long-term losers. Never buy call options on 2X ETFs in the opposite direction of the long term trend (like right now you never want to buy call options on SKF, DXD, SDS); and NEVER BUY CALL OPTIONS ON 3X ETFs, period.
I still expect the market to pullback a bit today, and consumer numbers may be used as an excuse. However, if the market decides to surprise to the upside, I will be participating in that move, too. Everyday many traders map out a “daily maximum and minimum” for the index based on what their TA reveal. Problem comes when these levels are breached, most don’t know how to react except to think that it will come back in and start doubling down. If you are a bear, but seeing other bears getting crushed in a surprise move to the upside, why not join the party for a short burst as you know that momentum induced short covering is one of the best opportunities to reap in profits? Similarly, there’s nothing wrong with a bull joining the bear party during a surprise move to the downside. You can’t make money if you only trade one way.
I will not be watching the index much for long term forecast this week. My only focus will be on the Dollar and gold. Unless Dollar shows significant strength and gold sells off (unlikely), bears will not get their prized “big drop”. Like I posted over the weekend, the crash already began on August 27 2009, but it is a silent crash just like the one from 2004 to 2007. Regardless, there are still two more dates I am targeting for front running major declines in 2010. With the way it looks right now, I am thinking those will be counter-trend trades so my strategy will be the same as what I employed on October 19. The market is exiting my window of highest probability trades zone, so I will not be trading past the end of November until a couple of weeks before my projected major decline, unless something seriously alters the market outlook. Capital preservation is more rewarding than trading with adrenaline.
Good luck to all of you.
Excellent post, Fritz….thanks for the info!
Fritz where do you see next support and rec. for AXP? I still have half left
Good morning everybody. This begins my 3rd full week holding all short positions. Obviously I’m bias, but I say we close deep in the red today. after being that way nearly all day.
Uh, have you seen the futures this morning?
Sell ur bearish positions and buy gold before you have nothing left.
No one is playing the downsides because it will only come after the currency
crisis.
Mornings.
We heard more from China on how they want a stronger, more stable USD. That coupled with oil declining even when the dollar is weak and gold sky-rocketing.
Is oil the leading indicator (article) – see:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=477
Thanks Woo, your work has been very much appreciated.
Congradualations.
An update on cycles.. you can technically start shorting after Nov 17th but since this is no ordinary market I would only short via SPY, or SDS or HSD.TO because the cycle top is very miniscule in degree and could potentially be delayed due to a very large cycle peak occuring in the same time frame.The very large cycle peak is pointing us to the 1150-1200 region by mid December.
GL
I would still only short with call options hedging my positions. It will be very interesting to watch if my system triggers a “sell” signal on the DOW, SPX, and Nasdaq on November 17, too.
Zee – what strike puts would you buy to play the downside ?
None. But 110 SPY Puts is what I would buy if I had the risk tolerance
IMO, I would only short via 1x leverage.
Congrats Woo!
do what you see, not what you think. mkt is clearly going to burst up, which take out some major resistance levels. what i see is a re-energized upward momentum and a delayed response to my mid-week call last week that spx will hit 1125 by eow….we will most likely see that early in the week. i’m looking for a day or two of complete bear slaughter, up 2~3% in a single session….one of those days when bears will be in complete silence with guilt and shame, sick-to-the-stomach, etc. today may just be that day! be long or be wrong!!~
anyone please advice,
Crude oil price drop 0.77% why stock future still move up. Idan used oil as predict indicator for The market normally moves up adn down with oil price.
Oil is up this morning. I’m not sure what you are looking at.
Morris – where are you looking for UCO to get to – tgt wise ?
I don’t have a specific target. I will be very tempted to close my position if we see 13.50 today.
Wish I carried as much faith in UCO as you did last week.
But, I am holding ERX. Hard to pick a sell target though.
Ha, you have to be patient with these oil trades (if you feel that you are on the right side of the trade). ERX is rocking this morning so if you held that over the weekend, congrats!
Congratulations Woo. Your market calls were excellent and we will miss your commentary.
I continue to be unhedged 100% long ABX (Barricks Gold) and SU (Suncor Energy). I am getting increasingly nervous about this market and am looking for opportunities to hedge with SPY puts. If the market significantly rises today, I will be buying SPY puts as a hedge. The thing that worries me the most is Russel 2000 Index. It is not making new highs. When markets are going up, small caps outperform large caps. Since it is not making new highs, it tells me that the market is close to its top.
This short term rally run is also close to its end. Its been 10 to 11 days since this rally started and it may go on for another day to three days. A short term correction will start sometime early to mid this week. How severe this correction will be is hard to predict.
The ABX long will save the day. Next big down will be caused by a currency
crisis, ABX will go nuts to upside on such a move.
Unlike the last crisis, gold will not be downwardly affected by a market crash.
I’m in the same situation as you woo. Just bought a condo and getting married next year. The only difference is that you know what the he’ll you’re doing.
Why not just wall off a bit of play money and trade that? That’s what I did, but if I ever learn how to handle this market I might do more.
Futures looking good, going to close my longs at 1120ish.
Good luck!
Stupid iPhone autocorrect… Should read, you know what the HELL you’re doing. Haha. Congrats and good luck.
Congrats Woo….I dont think you’d need to worry about missing anything big on the downside as I see X-mas rally coming through, and 2009 is shaping up to be a repeat of 1999 (decennial cycle phenom) and this grind up, climbing-the-wall-of-worry rally may continue for another 3~4 months, may give you enough time to get some finances and step back into the market, just in time for the move lower. besides, when the downside move comes, it may last at least 6 months….you’ll have plenty of time to make up for it during downtrend, using leverage. Good luck!
October retail sales rise 1.4% on rebound in autos (beat estimate 0.9%), U.S. says
Excluding cars, monthly sales increase by 0.2% (below estimate (0.4%). How market react these data?
It it impossible to know how the market will react to news. We have seen the market rally, fall, or do nothing at all on the release of both good and bad news.
Ignore news, this is a t/a site and t/a will assist you at time when news will just
confuse and befundle you.
Congrats Woo – that is awesome and I wish you the best for all the excitement coming up
I do hope to see you here regularly and hope that you will continue to share your thoughts with us and help us make money
Pete, during up-trend, bad news = rally, good news = rally more, really good news = take rest. 0.2% of retail sales gain (ex auto) is good news….so mkt will fall in the middle category. plus, look out for sweet talks between china-us which will be considered +ve on geopolitical risk and economic ties with world’s #1 and #2 economy.
Best of everything to you Woo
Congratulations!
Now holding 700 ICE, 2000 UCO and 2000 PLD. Looking good so far!
I read kenny’s blog and some of the other “permabear” ew sites. Too many of them are now resorting to political banter and complaining about manipulation. The political banter is particularly troubling. They are groupthinking their way to bankrupt trading accounts. If you’re a “permabear” you have to ask a question- are you interested in being right or interested in making money?
Market appears to be breaking out. Midcaps are also participating today.
Yep. This place was like that over the summer.
I agree and I drank that kool aid. I’ve seen the light.
Don’t get me wrong, I buy into EW theory in that the most likely counts (either a P3 or a C wave down) will take us to new lows. But my intermediate term system is pointing up, so I will be long. At this point we might be zig zagging up another 20-80 points on the SPX before we top.
Moving stops to profitable levels and done posting for the day. Good luck all.
But. . . . how can the sad sacks like him and Tom (moonboy) O’brien keep a
negative bias on gold?
Even the advance in gold is being pooh-poohed by these guys in disbelief while
it rockets ahead ? They are all looking for a dollar bounce because of it being
oversold ?
O’briens lousy gold report has been bearish gold majors and bullion for months
while waiting for the pullback to load up on ???? He then books ad time on
cnbc to tout his successes in the gold report during new gold highs?
How can this buncha goofs (even zero-unhinged went negative on gold when it
popped over 1K, LOL) dare to speak or post in public?
woo…
thank you for all your commentary and best of luck in your new endeavor..marriage is the best feeling to have someone to come home to and having a place of your own is priceless..
just my 2 cents, but the russell 2000 small cap has hit its 50 and correcting and the sp500 has been following..the russell should head south in the next week or so, which doesn’t bode well for the sp500 plus the fact we’re almost at the 1120 everyone been talking bout..so bombs away..can’t wait for this sell off or correction, whatever you call it..i’m done with the grinding higher..go monies on the side so lets take this ride down.
Congrats Woo.
I know the feeling. I bought my house 6 months before I got married and had to pull money from all sources.
take care and enjoy your time off. Market will be here when you get back..:)
— ZRAN — sold short $10.08
— SRS — it skipped right over my stop. oh well. at least i only have 500 shares. i trimmed back at the close on Friday.
when is the last time we had a down day on Monday?
1929?
Every friday and monday is up at least 1%
much higher on negative news.
SGR.V a junior gold in toronto is going nutz, look at it run here !!!
SGR & PAL look to break out.
Add more DZZ @13.80. GL.
I was just thinking of doing the same thing!
The only thing keeping me from doing it is that I suck at trading gold.
HUI look like they are in a megaphone pattern; it may move all the way down to the lower trendline. If what I am seeing is correct, gold may have a correction in the very short term. Good luck to both of us
gold may well have a correction due, and I have been taking some profits here, hoping to buy back cheaper, but I sure wouldn’t want to be short, especially overnight, good way to get hurt.
Didn’t you guys get the massive inverse HS breakout on the weekly? Twas a very powerful breakout. target 1200 to 1300, and that is only on technicals. Emotions could carry much higher.
I went short at s&p 1110 stp out at 1113
Bought SRS @8.55. GL.
I bought some @ 8.51
Ok, I am wrong to short up to 90% last week at 1003-1005. But that doesn’t stop me from adding in the last 10% today at 1111. I am finally seeing the “rush-to-buy” excitment from bulls. This usu marks mkt tops within a day or two.
I cut myself shaving. . . . no reason to stop at that and not move to my wrists?
How many of the best traders, the guys that have been balls on right. . . . have to
tell u to long gold or long markets and give up on the loser short mentality before
you stop shaving?
If u have to be silly, don’t advert it and expect sympathy. Go hang urself !!!
Sold all UCO @13.62. GL.
sold 2000 UCO @ 13.60 (up 4.62% from my average of 13.00); +$1200.00
16 for 17 now on UCO/SCO trades since early August
got out too early though on this one
Me too!
Very little upside from here for the bulls. My top is at 10530 and it will be a slow grind there and out of there. Right now 10530 is at the top of the channel going back from the bottom. I will start taking short positions around 10425-10450 and play them out on a day trading basis. Like I said it will be choppy and we will touch and drop from there. But we could do it several times. Since it is an ascending channel we might revisit this top of the channel later in december but it will be higher around 10800′s or so. For the time being if you are short and in pain hang on since your time is close.
If the markets has disconnected from the actual economy< how would that play the top. I mean what makes you guys think that 10500 or so is where they will start to cool off or pullback…
TIA
Welp , this weekend was a nice swift kick to the nuts currency wise. Obviously my positions took a beating. Win some lose some. Still ahve my FAZ position for the moment mainly because it’s only now under water with the marekt up 134 , so I’m going to wait for a bit of a pull back to get out. I’m guessing we pull back to retest the multi year bear trend line that was broken today before moving higher again. I will wait for that to get out of my FAZ.
I don’t like where this bullishness is taking us. The market is moving purely on inflation right now and the problem I see with that is there has been no “real” inflation in the economy. Sure the fed printed a bunch of money and handed it to China and banks. However the banks are not lending , house prices are still down. Thats deflationary.
This says to me that the market / and the USD for the matter have gotten ahead of itself. I can only see hyperinflation at the end of the road we seem to be going down atm. The USD needs to bounce , it really really needs to before the rampet selling of it accelerates.. What good will it do any of us to have a DOW @ 15000 if the USD is worth half what it is today. Scary times indeed.
Out of my FAZ @ 18.81 (in @ 18.89) USD/JPY just broke a trend line to the south. We might not get a pull back at all in the market. Going to sit out the stock market for the rest of today and see how things end up. Still re-evaluating what a break of the bear trend line could mean. I may wait for a real back test of it to jump in long with a stop.
I was thinking of adding to my small FAZ position here. Hmmmm …
I know tempting right ? But the USD/JPY has soundly broke south. That says to me more sliding of the USD and more increasing in the market today.
For those playing EDZ, SRS – bearish ETF … the base i.e. IYR, EEM etc have broken resistance and have some way to the next resistance, so these could be lower soo …
I am holding EDZ small position – in pain …. but just letting you all know …
my stop missed on SRS so i just added here at $8.56 as it looks like it is flattening out. i was looking for $9 EOW ….. going to watch for a bounce
and simply GET OUT.
MGRC im holding short. took short as it back tested the MA and now slightly above. this action does look bullish . im not totally stupid. if we hold above this massive resistance area id have to agree on this moving higher.
IBM is trading at a 10 year high.
Thanks Anj…
Still holding 2K UCO. Looks strong!
Nice job! I got out too early this morning. Do you have a short term target?
My initial target was $13.75. I didn’t hold until my target hit. GLTU
Still holding UCO- my tgt is 14.20 …
on USO – we are backtesting the 200 MA that we broke, if we break it, I get out … otherwise next resistance on USO is 40.5 and then ultimately 40.80 …
Nearing first resistance of USO @ 40.50 – watching what it does here ….
– ANOTHER – CLOSURE …another major retailer is pulling out of our city LA SENZA GIRL. however, WALMART has doubled the size of their store to include groceries. you can see the product mix of many shops changing to reflect more needs than wants. we are definintely seeing a shift in thinking.
This market is awsome.
THANK YOU!
USD losing to much ground. Need something safe , in C @ 4.24. Chart wise it’s sitting on a bullish trend line. If the market is to switch to a bull market trend there should be room for a good bounce here. Plus it’s not leveraged and I need something less volatile for awhile.
USD is the last thing fed has left! Until USD has any power it will be a big player for market…
I wish if I have thought about this few months ago… Last night I was thinking that even if 10 millions people lost their jobs,home etc there are 100+ millions people still have jobs… so 10 millions can not sink this economy so it was surly a created recession which led many like myself to think we are under water!
bought another 500 DZZ @ 13.80
500 FAZ @ 18.80
very risky; not a high confidence trade
indices new high and all other shorts etfs making new lows, not faz. might be a good one morris.
CLF having a nice breakout. In at the open
CLF nhod
Farg!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Played the odds and sold my Nov’ 109 calls EOD Friday for a 25% profit, left 100% on the table this morning!
SPY max pain 108, do we pull back here? I might pick up some SDS…thoughts?
Why bother? Just do a survey here of committed shorts and bearish comments
and go the other way.
I see us shooting higher for the entire week, might even hit the 1200.2 by friday if
the negative posts keep up here. And gold, boy. . . . i guess some peep wanna
hate theyselfs?
true dat.
We’re back to buying dips, I guess. Why fight the tape.
——— PBI ————- im not sure if this market is manipulated or ignorant to the facts. this stock, last i checked, did not even have a current balance sheet. it currently shows an enormous Debt/Equity ratio of 60 … this is not a misprint. this is what im reading. healthy number is 2 .. great number is 0.5. YET THEY KEEP PAYING THE DIVIDEND. the chart is looking pitiful, not for the first time. im in the JAN 25 PUT ….. AGAIN! if this share price does not correct to reflect the pitiful condition management has put this company in… I QUIT
can anyone explain how a company can get away with a balance sheet like PBI ?
666 ————-> 1111 ……………………. is this it ….. or am i a fool. SRS seems to be finding support again. im buying front month SPY 110 PUTS. just a couple $0.52
woo said possible 1118 and zee said tomorrow possible pull back
MTH ….. $20 DEC CALL …. at least they are current … chart flagging
HD …. $17 DEC PUT … hitting the upper BB
how about every company in the 500 spy they just call it mark to market accounting.
Balance sheets and P/E’s mean nothing at the beginning of bull moves as they
reflect the worst. Sell em when the multis show in single digits, that is a warning
sign of a top.
The way oil is consolidating before 40.50 – makes me wonder is it getting ready to just bust this to goto 40.80 …. watching carefully …
40.32 is my line in the sand …
——— SRS ———– buyers are showing up. not sure what to make of it yet.
starting to shape up more like a bear flag than anything. moving my stop up
$8.52 is my stop. below the flag line i have on the 15min. if it breaks below im interested to spectate only.
did anyone see DXY jump from 74.95 to 75.12!!
if this baby ir ready to go up then nothing can hold this market!
Its all news related…Helicopeter Ben just opened his mouth in favor of the $.
Said he won’t kill it till next week after opex.
That is not a jump, its a blip. We will be back at HOD very soon as the
MM have learnt to buy dips and carry rips.
——— STOPS ARE IN ———– IM OUT ……. i cant watch this stupid thing for much longer. taking a few hours break. SRS …… you better be north of $8.60 when i get back and i better still have my shares.
Out of UCO Nov calls at this time … holding my Dec 13/14 spread for now …
I wonder which leveraged ETF will be the next to do a reverse split. Probably EDZ or SMN, maybe even TZA
thanks to all the kind comments everyone. really appreciate it.
Looks like the market broke into new highs as expected. wasn’t sure if it was going to happen today or not, but it was going to happen.
anjali was it you that bought the aapl call spreads? aapl went up to the trend line/fib very nicely, and bounced south of it. have to be careful here. might want to have stops around the 205 area because what you really want here is a breakout of aapl, not a resistance bounce for much longer.
got out of erx too early last week haha. knew that rise was coming, but had to get money out of the account because of the stupid condo haha.
Hey Woo … I got out of the AAPL spread … a little too early … made $44 on $265 … but a profit is a profit ….
Was thinking of buying the 220 Call – yes / no ?
Hey Woo – could you post your updated AAPL chart and also give the stockcharts link …
Sometimes the charts in black bacground are visible like your BAC chart could be seen by me, but not the white background charts …
here you go:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19885219021&a=173009294
i would wait for a confirmed 210 break of aapl before grabbing calls. right now there’s a lot of resistance and it could be dangerous.
Perfect, the link worked
– the black charts work, the white ones don’t …
Yes – I see tons of resistance @ 209 area with trendline fibs etc ….. is there a reason why you say 210 ?
because of the pink trend line that has yet to be broken.
we’d probably need to see 210 for a confirmed break of that pink line. it’s been around a long time.
AMX breaking out attempt, needs more volume
AIMC also attempting breakout, but needs more volume
Jeez, putting NLST on short stalk list, whadda move
NANO too
GDXJ on hod. recent new ETF junior minors. It’s largest holdings are some of my fav individuals
junior miners*, hehe
silver’s really crankin today too.
minor miners (hehe)
KRY has doubled today, with high gold u can be sure chavez will make a deal
for the gold miner to go ahead. Chav needs the hard currency.
My 2 faves are AGT/APG and KRY
Like i said, don’t think short, think long gold and let em go squeeze some
other crap.
yeah, thats a good one
1000 SCO @ 12.87 (not a high confidence entry)
I know you’ve done very, very well Morris, but can’t understand your recent shorts.
Knowing you, you’ll come out very well on them though.
Ha, I know it seems crazy. Some here were surprised on Friday morning when I added to my UCO position and that turned out ok today. We’ll see how it goes. I am probably due for some losses here soon but I just have to go with what I see right now. Best of luck to you!
yeah gold and oil long I can understand, wasn’t surprised as I went long UCO also Friday. short I can’t, unless just a daytrade/skim. Keep up the good work though!
The SCO will just be a skim; I hope to close it tomorrow with a profit. The DZZ will be a longer term play.