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12
Nov
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11:24 AM PST:
GOOG
Here’s a possible GOOG chart. we bounced south of that trend line earlier. Looks like 605 is the area to watch for short term. there could be backtests of the 556 fib or a retesting of that pink channel, so you need to be careful. since it’s currently at the top of the channel i wouldn’t grab calls at the moment, unless they are next month and you’re willing to wait out possible falls first.
10:24 AM PST:
ERX
not a bad erx play here with stops under that fib of 44.60ish
10:20 AM PST:
That light blue trend line is tentative. It’s a rough line and you can manipulate it a little bit, so don’t use it as an exact reference yet.
————
Here is the updated current 1 month chart of SPX:
As you can see we’re wedging and it really could go any way, but because we fell out of the channel it’s a slight bearish sign short term. I didn’t hold any positions going into tomorrow and made quite a nice profit off of the SPY puts I bought early in the day based on the trend line hit and a multiple amount of flares to the south that ended up hitting.
I don’t have time to post individual charts today (it actually takes a lot of time to post charts), but I’ll take requests and try and post as many of those individual stocks as I can tomorrow morning and throughout the day tomorrow.
Good luck all!
This article is good if you are needing a break
http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=619739
Hey Everybody,
2 1/2 week 100% bear position trader here, yep still still sitting about 6-7% in the red. Of all the days this week, Thursday is the day I’m most confident my portfolio will go up and the market will go down. I’ll catch you all right after market close, with an admission of being wrong yet again, or with a sigh of relief for having a rare good day over the past week. I hope its the latter. My thoughts, SPX 1055-1060 at the closing bell.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:30 am
From your keyboard to g-d’s ears!!! I am starting to agree, tried to get into my
usual opex positions only to find them all stuffed like blintzes. (too rich,LOL).
Euro and asia opened lower and then immediately sprung up .4%. Watch wallmarts
earnings in the morning beat expects that they just thrashed and send the market 200
higher.
Good luck.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:40 am
Much appreciated Palladin, and I believe and hope we’ll both see it happen. I think we’ll know by 3pm Est what the result will most likely be an hour later. So good luck to us, and if not me, than I hope at least you make some money.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:25 am
There is no way that we will see 1060 or lower today.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:00 am
To be clear, I’m not saying that we won’t have a red day. I’m just saying that a 3.5% or more drop (which is what you are calling for) is VERY unlikely statistically on any given day in the markets. I’m not sure what would prompt such a prediction but I hope it worls out for you.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Much appreciated Morris, but I think we still might see it today. Its looking to be a bit of a long shot however, I agree.
To those who are short AXP with me (short the shares, not puts or short calls), you are brave souls or just as suicidal as I am. I had call options to hedge AXP as I knew it had potential to go higher at the time I shorted it. Today I got rid of call options (35 strike), and grabbed 40 strike (Nov calls). I hold more call options than necessary to take care of the hedge, but I also have 39 strike Nov puts. My system issued a warning that AXP top could be in, which is the whole reason I held my shorts so stubbornly. I am selling my calls as AXP rips higher, and this essentially raises my AXP short sale price.
I see a major resistance band between $39.50 and $42.50, so it is possible that AXP stalls here and trapped within this band to make my November calls and puts worthless, but before that happens there should be one more violent move in either direction (AXP did not have a qualified break of the $39.50 resistance), which is why I have the same number of calls and puts to take care of business. After that violent move, I will convert all November calls into December calls to continue hedging. I know some of you who are in AXP short side trade did not have any hedges and in pain right now. All I can say is when you’re trying to short a top in an uptrend, you’re going against the trend, so don’t do it without hedging or stops. One more thing to make AXP shorts uneasy: it could possibly head to $42.25 in four trading days.
Today my system issued sell signal on MSFT (today’s high is 29.3, and theoretical top should be between 29.3 and 32.23). When I get such signals, I only short the stock itself, not put options. The reason is the signal is only a warning that the top maybe in and a major correction could take place, but I wouldn’t know when prices would start dropping hard. Put options have time constraints, whereas shorting allows me to be patient, as long as I have call options to hedge.
As I type this, I have just witnessed a Dollar mini-spike, should be an interesting day tomorrow.
November 12th, 2009 at 9:30 am
Fritz, I wish I have NOT traded for last 4 weeks.
AXP 18k loss (still holding half)
Bidu 22k loss shorted at 376 out at 426
GG 12k+ loss shorted at 37.15 out 40.75
AMZN 14k loss shorted at 109 out at 119.25
UYM 17k profit short/long
SDS 10k profit long
FAS 7k profit
I am down approx 32k
November 12th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Understand your pain, that’s why I never trade counter-trend without hedging myself against catastrophy.
asia up, euro up, what’s the worry….be long or be wrong!! spx 1125 by eow…mark my words!
fritz, what vol did you pay for your AXP calls?
November 12th, 2009 at 8:26 am
IV is higher on AXP due to its expected wide-range moves, especially when the stock itself is going up in price. I always pick up call options when the stock is on the way down.
Careful on AXP calls though, I don’t see it breaking the $39.5 – $42.5 resistance band easily. Better reward/risk ration at $37 if the momentum is still there.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:22 am
thx, may play a bit of this…long side of course
November 12th, 2009 at 10:50 am
AXP not being able to tbreak above resistance at 40.30 – this is an upsloping line so be careful … I would only go long on a 2 candle break of this – with a possible tgt of 41 an then 42.25 …
Thanks for the update Woo – good morning !!!
When you get a chance if you could look at GOOG
Mostly small Chinese with good e/r’s so far today
HPJ CAAS CTRP CTFO CMFO GRRF YUII
others
JMBA ADAM NAFC ATK
$BDI has been on a roll. $TRAN might make it’s new highs. Dry bulkers moving again.
HPQ buying COMS, BRCD doesn’t like.
Dollar up a bit, probably mostly Geithner jawboning.
November 12th, 2009 at 9:10 am
woah, AMD on news
November 12th, 2009 at 9:20 am
add Chinese CAGC on e/r
November 12th, 2009 at 9:28 am
The Semis and Transports are all higher and they usually lead the market.
I’m still holding TZA,FAZ, and EDZ from monday amazingly not down that much. trying to decide what to do thinking it’s all dependent on the dollar euro.
UCO or SCO?
November 12th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Before the inventory report? I would wait.
November 12th, 2009 at 9:50 am
I’m looking at both and thinking it could go either way today so I am staying out for now.
Holding PLD, ICE, UCO and hedging with TZA!
good morning woo..
ok, this is beaten to death…but can you take a look at BAC again..last nights chart kinda teetering…its at the 50 retrace now from mid oct to early nov…just hit the 50 and backed off …still under the 50 day…so now what?
does it head south..i think its a 12 dollar stock but getting there is giving me grays.
appreciate your time and comments.
November 12th, 2009 at 9:55 am
H and S on the daily XLF??
Believe it or not, I actually would like AXP to shoot up to $41 and then close somewhere near $40.23 That way I get to sell more of my calls for cash to raise my short sale price up to $41.20 I know that’s evil for you, nastrade. I really wish you hadn’t traded this stock.
500 DZZ @ 14.40
November 12th, 2009 at 9:57 am
so I now have 1000 shares at an average of 14.70
this is a longer term play
November 12th, 2009 at 10:16 am
I shorted the junior gold index via HGD.TO on close yesterday and its doing
nothing, nadda, zilch today. At least not losing cash?
I can usually get a feel for the market. . . not for the past week tho, it just will not
correct, nothing will reverse or go down, no sellers?
My play on gold is from the stand that larry kuddles dudlow, the reformed coke
and boozehound on cnbc did a super fullish show open on gold and its huge
potential going forward. that at least should be reason for a short term correct
in GLD?
Also, not seeing small golds participate to extent gold is rally? No takeovers
in a hugely profitable industry?
1000 TZA @ 12.00
November 12th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Morris can you share all your position and entries … thanks a lot
November 12th, 2009 at 10:27 am
Sure, this is everything I’ve done so far in November:
11/02 – bought 400 ERX @ 41.00
11/03 – sold 400 ERX @ 43.70 (+6.59%, +$1080.00)
11/04 – bought 200 ERX @ 45.00 and 200 ERX @ 44.00
11/06 – bought 200 ERX @ 44.50
11/09 – sold 600 ERX @ 47.00 (+5.62%, +$1500.00)
11/06 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.20
11/09 – sold 1000 UCO @ 14.20 (+7.58%, +$1000.00)
11/09 – bought 1000 SCO @ 12.70
11/10 – sold 1000 SCO @ 13.20 (+3.94%, +$500.00)
11/09 – bought 1000 ERY @ 11.10
11/11 – sold 1000 ERY @ 10.80 (-2.70%, -$300.00)
11/10 – bought 200 FAS @ 78.00
11/11 – sold 200 FAS @ 80.50 (+3.21%, +$500.00)
11/04 – bought 500 DZZ @ 15.00
11/12 – bought 500 DZZ @ 14.40
11/12 – bought 1000 TZA @ 12.00
I hope this helps!
November 12th, 2009 at 10:40 am
I also have one other position (QID) that is intended to be a longer term hold. I think most people here are interested in these shorter term trades.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:42 am
My AXP short is acutally intended to be a long term (1 year) hold. ;p
November 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
morris, what’s ur stop limit on TZA?
November 12th, 2009 at 10:49 am
I don’t have a stop in place right now because I have enough free time on Thursdays to keep a pretty close eye on my account. We’ll see how it goes.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:04 am
morris, you seem quite accurate with the UCO/SCO trade. Can you share your indicators?
November 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am
I’ve done ok with the UCO/SCO trades (15 for 16 since early August). I do not really use any indicators other than patterns I see in the price action. I know that doesn’t really help.
Can anyone tell me how is black candle formed in chart? White is open low close high. Red is open high close low.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:26 am
white and red as nothing to do with that…
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand
remember, spx 1125 by eow. simple as that…..get long the mkt into every dips as the show begins!
November 12th, 2009 at 10:39 am
The market better hurry up and get going if that is going to happen.
I think we still have a potential 2% move higher from here before we see a new push lower… 1023-1026 to me looks like the top… with a fib retracement at 1021
November 12th, 2009 at 10:41 am
I think you meant 1123-1126 with a fib retracement at 1121
November 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
I think he meant 1123-1126 with a fib retracement to 1021..
November 12th, 2009 at 11:34 am
yup 1123-1126 and 1121 being the major fib around that area (50% retracement of the whole move lower) .. sorrry..
The dollar is showing some muscle if that continues we are at the top IMO.
woo/idan or anyone else
looks like everything now movies based on how $DXY… if that’s the case then drop of few points $DXY could let this market go above 150 or even higher!
Please share your thoughts…
November 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
*moving
November 12th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Yes that is very true… the dow controls this market… it never broke down while the S&P faked below it’s line… the dow can actually rally another 2% from here and have no problem.
Seems like a Neutral or semi-positive biased day. Just bagged an internship with Barclays Capital, but I might take summer school so it might not work out…
November 12th, 2009 at 11:06 am
does anyone see this scenario: We attempt to break above 1100-1105, but fail, retrace to the gap around 1070 through opex, then make a run for the 1120 level. Maybe have the pullback to the 1020 level in Dec?
November 12th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Congrats, take the Barclays deal, summer school is noble but what u can learn
in the mailroom at barkers has more value in real life than a full medical degree.
tis ur chance to impress and get a feel for a career in finance. Not all u learn is
in school, my break came in similar way and this gives u a huge hoof in the door
when edu complete.
Good luck and thanx for listening to an old guy that faced the same deal back in
70’s. What u learn o/s the class is more important imho. Look at egghead
bernanke scrambling to avoid what history taught and failing at every step (so far,
so bad, LOL).
Since the Grand Bear Market trendline passed through the DOW yesterday, this kind of sideways consolidation is expected. The question is whether we drop from here or bust through that to go into a new bull market cycle. Opex is next week, I wouldn’t expect much action for the remainder of this week. The SPX is still fighting to get over that trendline actually, the resistance was at 1107.68 yesterday and at 1107 today. I drew this line using the intraday highs, not the close. Usually, there should be a spike in volume on any break of trendlines (support or resistance alike). If volume is not there it makes the break suspicious.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am
The DOW has just relinquished the trendline it worked 2+ years to conquer.
EIA crude oil inventory +1.8 mln vs exp 1.0 mln. Oil breaks below 77
November 12th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Wow, I hope those guys/gals that were holding UCO got out in time.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am
I did not and I am still holding. Down big but no worries
November 12th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
As a former NYMEX trader you must be crazy buying any oil ETFs before inventory reports unless you working on the exchange. This trade is just pure gambling and does not put risk in your favor. I would be selling out of that position ASAP.
November 12th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Sorry, missing something, who is the former nymex tradr? the one buying
ahead of release? That is like doubling down ahead of getting to view ur
down card in blackjack !!
November 12th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
I was holding UCO since god knows when. I do not trade based on the report so I donot care. Isnt trading a gamble:) if you have a formula for a sure money making scheme then let us all know…bears on this board need it the most
If you look back, inventory report based oil moves fades in a day or two.
Bought UCO@13.17. GL.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:18 am
I’ll probably join you if it sees 13.00 or lower today. Good luck!
November 12th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Good luck to you too
November 12th, 2009 at 11:34 am
I don’t know how much you can apply TA to UCO, but I see since October 21st, there seems to be a descending triangle forming on a 60 min chart.
I mean this pattern:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_
That may mean that right now is a perfect time to buy for a bounce. But it may also mean that a big drop is coming in the not too distant future (perhaps after that bounce).
I’m a newbie at this, so feel free to rip apart my observation.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Hi JImmy,
I am no expertise at TA; I am still trying to learn. I observed oil is still consolidating within the range of $77 ~ $82. I use UCO/SCO to play this range. I have been playing SCO/UCO trades for sometime, I use my own method that works for me. GL.
Was 80% short yesterday. Now 90%. Yesterday might be the perfect turning point with usd and vix reversing together? However, an argument can be made that this is a slight correction for 6-7 days of up days before it goes up.
In any case, if the spx got a pulse, it feels like someone is dumping in bulk and the longs should be more nervous than shorts if it hangs between 1096-1106 while the hrs tick. Good luck to pple who have the courage to short this market yesterday and today
Looks like we are dropping
Bought 200 ERX at 45
– SHORT TERM TRADES —
bought front month SPY 110 PUTS this morning
also. have a COUPLE of stocks here that have the 20dma cross 40dma
DRE WRI — both CRE — short both
still have my short sale in HRS
November 12th, 2009 at 11:43 am
SPY PUT 110 +38%……… nice change for me.
if you watched futures trade last night youd be getting
more bearish. im Feeling Bearish Again
November 12th, 2009 at 11:45 am
— HGD.TO —- had an order fill for $4.30.
this is short Gold Miners and the instrument is pretty oversold.
November 12th, 2009 at 11:49 am
DONT FORGET TO USE STOPS.
it is ok to be wrong because it is going to happen. you can limit your losses and lock in gains using trailing stops.
November 12th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Great SPY trade
Richard … q for you – how did you calculate the SRS entry point as 8.87 yesterday – that was the exact low …..
November 12th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Anjali, Richard said $8.57. I remember because I’d also enter my trade at this level.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Loaded this hgd on close last nite, feel super bullish of gold but seeing
that gold was going to be lead off story on kudlow and co is a sign of
correction.
Not getting the bang for buck i expected. sold short GMCR at close last
nite
DZZ making a nice move this morning.
—- CHRISTMAS RALLY — you know that if we start falling we are going to hear all about this. this may give sellers someone to sell too… traders banking on a Christmas Rally. anyones guess if it comes or not. but, it seems like a great opportunity to get out of the market if they manage to attract buyers through this “stock marketing”
I am going to go out on a limb here and say the dollar will stay strong until at least tomorrow with president Obama in Asia trying to subside worries about the US currency to the Chinese.We all know the dollar is manipulated by the fed and Tim Geitner almost said as much this morning. Dollar up + Oil down + Gold down = Down market
Nice bullish pattern on EDZ right now.
November 12th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
check the daily cause you have some GAP resistance at around 5.75. If we can bast past this then its on like donkey kong
November 12th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
*blast
November 12th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
I like Donkey Kong..:=)
Intraday Trade here guys
SSO
546 shares
36.62 pps
stops in at 36.5
sell at 1095 on S&Ps
———— STOPS ARE IN ———– check back for the final hour
LONG : HGD.TO (bear fund gold stocks)
LONG : SPY puts
SHORT: HRS WRI DRE WFT.TO
good luck trading everyone.
taking half postion of sco off–top of channel.
I sold TZA at 12.45 2000 shares. Bought at 12.22 yesterday. I still see a little bit more downside to test 10100’s I do not have the time to monitor this position for the afternoon. I will be 100% cash into tomorrow and will post my direction. remember 10475-10530 is the area where we could reverse and I think we will get there next week.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
I like that projection on the DOW, as my system will probably fire a “sell DOW” signal should that level be reached.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Thanks JROD for your updates.
For those who are still stubbornly holding AXP shorts, watch $39.75. If that level is broken with a spike in volume, we may see it at $37 next week.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Never mind, just did that.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
some light
I would F it at 37
November 12th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
That’s not to say that it won’t rip higher again tomorrow though, just that $37 is a realistic target next week.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Covered Nov 41 P at .31 today after selling at .62 yesterday. Sold COF Nov 40 C at .62 today. Looking for more bang for the buck.
My indicators just flashed a sell IYR & sell SPY signal, nuetral on QQQQ sell Gold via GLD
sell on XLF and oil. Suspect a dollar rally into close
still short GMCR from last night and not adjusting up stops, this a vol stock and short interest
dried up . Hoping for dive in IOC -interoil for buy in headed into opex.
Good luck guys. FWIW i have never felt less comfort being short gold than i do right now,
def all i beleive and expect holding HGD.TO from last nite.
Watch it guys, this could be the fake out of fakes which we have watched replay time and again.
sold 1000 shares of TZA @ 12.50 (up 4.17% from my entry @ 12.00 earlier today); +$500.00
just playing it safe here
November 12th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Man you are on a roll…great job.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
I wish I am the one that can post the report card here
Good job!
November 12th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Thanks! I’m using smaller positions and getting out fast since this market is so hard for me to call right now.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
I should consider just following you; that could save me a lot of time & efforts
November 12th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
same here…I will follow you morris and it will save me some hair…
No true weakness or sell off here?
Is this because of failed 30 year auction or is china about to cut up obammy’s gold card
on arrival?
November 12th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
with obammy and timmee heading to asia, you can bet that they will say crap about not having low dollar policy. this should help prop up the dollar for at least until tomorrow. then up up and away onto opex.
MSFT price action looks like distribution. Sell signal was fired on this stock as of yesterday’s close. We’ll see how this works out. GS sell signal followed by a 14% drop in price makes all bears salivate. I am not touching MSFT just yet, but I will soon.
200 FAS at 78
November 12th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I’m also looking at the 3x longs for a possible entry here.
November 12th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I’m specifically looking at ERX.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
i put an erx chart above a little while ago.
ERX is a great buy right now.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
bought in at 44.85.
would’ve bought in sooner, but i had a meeting. been a busy day.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Excellent! I got in @ 44.90 (posted below). We’ll see how it goes.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Woo – are you playing this with options ?
November 12th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
nope. i don’t like 3x etf options haha. not enough volume and too risky.
Idan;
Those STEC calls are up today…
November 12th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
yup sure are
. We are holding it long yup.
If these price levels hold, “sell DOW” signal could be fired today…
November 12th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Fritz,,,can on elaborate on the levels. Do you mean DOW at 10236 and SP at 1092?
November 12th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Or did you mean to say SPX was already triggerd last week?
November 12th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
SPX never triggered it, didn’t meet all of my criteria. Nasdaq triggered it on October 21, and VIX triggered “buy” on October 19. How did I know when to short the market? Those were the signals. It is the Nasdaq “sell” signal that I believe Nasdaq has either printed its high for 2009 or its merely 2% from it. Perhaps Nasdaq just wants to kiss that broken uptrend line goodbye.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
S&P not in a position to lock in that “sell signal” yet, perhaps no “sell signal” will be fired due to its many fakeouts and my stringent criteria. The DOW shows the cleanest shape, and if the DOW closes between 10220 and 10260 it will have all but locked in a “sell”, which means the top is close if not already printed. When I get these signals I will short but buy double calls as it is still counter-trend. See the AXP example? If I didn’t hedge with calls how can I stay the course on it so stubbornly?
400 ERX @ 44.90 (not a high confidence entry)
November 12th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
nice. i’m still leaning towards a possible 58.70 short term hit on ERX. hopefully the ride is not too rough getting there.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
erx 44.69 is the fib under this area to watch. it should hold. there’s two more supports under that as well that are really close.
November 12th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Thanks so much for the info!
November 12th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
thanks woo! for the insight into ERX..nice to see you are looking into 3XETFs too.
Mr Topstep still thinks major downside is in the cards… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqMuyI_9wuI
Woo – on ERX – what is your danger point … aka get out of this trade … ?
Also, since 44.69 is broken, the next entry point is 43.87 – 42.45 (green trendline ?
Thanks
November 12th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
below 43.87 is the danger point. trend lines will break to hit major fibs and it’s not a big problem. but if the fib under the trend line breaks, then you have a problem. haha.
200 more ERX @ 44.30
November 12th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
so I now have 600 at an average of 44.70
I did post that this was not a high confidence entry
November 12th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
haha. i purchased more down here at 44.30 also lol. with 43.80s being the optimal entry point, it’s still got some wiggle room, i can’t say i feel bad about this position though. good luck =P
but yeah, if this breaks south solidly, we could wake up tomorrow to $42 or so.
AXP shorts please note: a close within 33% of the low of the day will give a confirmed short term reversal pattern, and first target would be $37 and second will be a break of its rising wedge support in place since March. I am holding this short for long term, until September 2010.
sco trying to break again–taking more shares off. stops in place for rest, $77 (oil) is major support.
Just added to my SRS position. My average is now $9.50.