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12
Nov
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11:24 AM PST:
GOOG
Here’s a possible GOOG chart. we bounced south of that trend line earlier. Looks like 605 is the area to watch for short term. there could be backtests of the 556 fib or a retesting of that pink channel, so you need to be careful. since it’s currently at the top of the channel i wouldn’t grab calls at the moment, unless they are next month and you’re willing to wait out possible falls first.
10:24 AM PST:
ERX
not a bad erx play here with stops under that fib of 44.60ish
10:20 AM PST:
That light blue trend line is tentative. It’s a rough line and you can manipulate it a little bit, so don’t use it as an exact reference yet.
————
Here is the updated current 1 month chart of SPX:
As you can see we’re wedging and it really could go any way, but because we fell out of the channel it’s a slight bearish sign short term. I didn’t hold any positions going into tomorrow and made quite a nice profit off of the SPY puts I bought early in the day based on the trend line hit and a multiple amount of flares to the south that ended up hitting.
I don’t have time to post individual charts today (it actually takes a lot of time to post charts), but I’ll take requests and try and post as many of those individual stocks as I can tomorrow morning and throughout the day tomorrow.
Good luck all!
if 1086 breaks, it won’t look pretty on the 1 month chart…
November 12th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Woo, do you think the Russell 2000 has already topped with a double top pattern? For the pattern to be confirmed we need a close below the 550 level.
bummer, got out of TZA too early today
DZZ made a nice move though
Don’t get too excited about this downage, covering half my shorts with a very slight profit
as do not trust the head fakeout bear traps that get set every single close.
If anyone dares call me a pussy i will scratch their eyes out- – -HISSSSSSS, LOL.
this is more of buyers exaustion than selling. I’d love to see down 650 points on close but
can’t afford wishes over reality. to the other brave souls out htere good luck, you deserve
a nice little 10% drop on close.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Right here with you Palladin, since very early this morning when we exchanged messages. I was very confident of a finish in the red, and said that at about this time we’d have a very good idea where we’d be at at the closing bell. so here’s what my guess would be:
Dow 10, 175
SPX 1083
Hopefully even lower, but that would be acceptable.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
I’m sitting pretty getting rid of my AXP 35 calls to raise cash and now riding my AXP short shares down. If it stays above $39 and prints a red bar, a “final sell” signal will be locked in. I trust this signal very much.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Palladin,
im back to watch the close and happily taking my + 57% on the spy puts bought this morning. im going to keep the rest of the positions open. closing the most risky. doing this right now.
good luck trading.
all the moving averages exception to the 20dma are still pointing up on the $SPX but . i posted a few stocks with bearish crosses : WRI and DRE … ill be holding those.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
CHA CHING ….. in at $1.17 and out at $1.79 SPY 110 PUTS NOV
November 12th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
awesome trade rich. i missed out because i wasn’t at the computer at the time of the peak. =P
November 12th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Awesome
November 12th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Super nice, attaboy and godspeed.
About F*cking time, LOL.
Another 800 on the downside by close would have me wearing makeup and
a dress due to a lost bet, ouch !!! Anyone have a bra i can borrow?
November 12th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Thanks,
ive been hammered entering the wrong stocks. each time being moved by some nobody analyst upgrading the likes of NYT and RSH. then i got gun shy with my $10 FUN PUTS only to have them go up 800% after i unloaded at a 20% profit. im over that sick feeling and back at it.
guess you just dust yourself off and move on.
——– HGD.TO —— short gold miners. has not moved today.
40dma is crossing through the 50dma
the 20 40 and 50 dma all point down. bounced off the lower BB yesterday. this is a bit risky trying to catch the bottom. using a stop and holding overnight. hopefully not a gapper.
Where is Bullish Bear and long and strong 1125 by eow…that is n jepordy
November 12th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
Yep, I think we can say that’s not going to happen.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Shhhhh. I live in bear country and we know never to sneak up on one
that’s asleep.
Remember, borats wife was raped by a bear she awoke !!!
Hi Guys,
I can’t see any weakness in this bullish bias at all. At least for me it is only a consolidation move. It looks that tomorrow another bullish move will offset completely today distribution
Trades:
GS Calls – sold – triggered limit orders
RIMM Calls – burned
AMZN Puts – screwed with it but still holding
November 12th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
the 20dma has now turned flat since OCT 22 … id say that is toppy
$CPC is tame or complacent
my “GUESS” is we wiggle and waggle in this area at best until the
end of next week for OPEX — hold 1080 for end of next week?
still NO BIG BETS for me.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Man….I am becoming older and more BURNED….I was using October Options calendar instead of November….LOL…. LOL….all options that I hold will expire only in 2010
Big manipulation will be only next week
November 12th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
LOL
1000 UCO @ 13.12
November 12th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
another risky play on the long side (just like the ERX entry)
November 12th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
don’t think it is that risky–aren’t you playing a double bottom?
November 12th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
I was just saying that any entry on the long side could be risky given the overall action in the market. We’ll see if this dip gets bought. Good luck to you!
Woo/everyone
what if anything are you looking to buy at the close?
November 12th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
it hasn’t hit any significant points to the downside just yet. 60 minutes says a little lower. monthly says a bit lower too. i’m going to wait for 1082-1083 area before deciding anything.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
then again, if i redraw my light blue trend line on the monthly, it looks like it could have touched that line, or be right above it.
market slightly oversold…
hmm..
November 12th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
60 minute wants a solid 1085.13, and we’ve gone slightly below it…
i might dip in a very small december call position into tomorrow…
November 12th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
still needs to stay lower on the 60 minute, right now the 60 min avg is floating above the fib…
November 12th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
I GUESS for a recover…little one…about +0.5%…but only by the end of the day…
I will try to buy something (possible more RIMM CALLs) after 10 AM
Isn’t it a really big deal that we can’t break 1100?
Is it time to go short?
November 12th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
NO. On both parts.
we have gone up striaght for 550 pts, a 200 point giveback on close is nadda.
Any idea how often this same bear trap has been set and baited this way? I am
looking to dump short and buy dips on open, there is always a 2nd-3rd chance
in brading.
Morris/Woo, what is your stop on ERX?
November 12th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I don’t have one in place right now.
November 12th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
i don’t have one at the moment because i’m holding into tomorow, but my mental stop is the 43.87 level. so probably 43.75 or so.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
I am joining you guys on this trade, bought some ERX before EOD. Good luck trading everyone
November 12th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Best of luck to all of us on this trade. I hate holding these 3X positions overnight!
——- 1100 ——— IF YOU LOOK AT THE $SPX WEEKLY it should be come apparent that the 1100 level is quite key. that level broke in SEP 2008 and it is the most significant break on the weekly chart. MASSIVE 2 BAR BREAK going strong to the downside. technically from my perspective, this candlestick pattern, shows a capture of 1100 by the bears. this resistance now confirms it. we will have to see two strong weeks pushing back through this level for me to lose my BEARISH BIAS
FSLR on the neckline of a massive H&S on the daily chart. Shorted this thing on a small position (175 @117.06). Trailing stops in.
i am not happy with where this is currently about to end on the 60 minute chart. need 1085 or so into close, or else, it might happen at open.
no new positions entered at closing into tomorrow. holding my erx position, which is currently down .5%, not really anything to worry about.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:05 pm
1087 ok ?
So now where do you see this going to Woo ?
this is just about all the reprieve the bears will get before spx shoots up to 1125 tomrw. a small pullback but closing nicely above 1086…absolutely no damage to short-term bullish trend. expect a nice pop to 1093 tomrw morning to start off with and a grind up move towards 1125 into eow. it will be a huge day for call holders!!
November 12th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Yes, i agree with bb.
I also have a strong poss of getting pam anderson preggers in the overnite since
we are both canadian and i once beat up on tommy lee (long sory but true its in
the newspapers, LOL!!)
Possible but doncha bet on it, LOL.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
I Agree with Palladin 100%.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
are you saying a 4 percent move tom.
Also, thanks for the GOOG chart
According to these big S&P traders from Mr. Topstep 1082 in the S&P Future is the number to watch. If we bust through there we will likely see 1040 again. If we bust through 1030 with conviction then it is 1010-1015 and if we bust through that, run for the hills if you are a bull because you’ll be toast.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
Like your thoughts, thanks for the link. Just don’t see it happening, however– too much intervention.
The federal government had a deficit in just the month of October of $700 for every man, woman and child in the country. Unfortunately for us bears, this is additional reason for them to drive the dollar to zero and the Dow to a million. Bears are the only true patriots who do not want to see the U.S. turn into Zimbabwe.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
I would not be so fast to assume that. Why? The world is invested in the USD and they will not want to see it get too low (at least not yet)… Oil cannot go much higher (But will if the dollar stays weak). We already have reports of massive overproduction and ships waiting, empty. See vid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rutfPRhqaV0
Refined oil is stock-piled like never before. The storage tanks are full and they are even using these very ships with nothing to do, to act as floating storage for the product, in hopes of buyers. Have heard Shell is losing millions, per day, at just one location, due to “too much product and not enough buyers.” (get the picture)
Massive deflation, a lower stock markets and a higher dollar could be on the plate:
(And the world needs a stronger USD) See-
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=474
November 12th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
The world was long the pet rock in the 80’s but it did not assure or insure the
fad would carry. the usd will be dumpt like a stale pet rock if that situation gets
ever slightly worse.
Ignore the buffet and master b gates story, they’d buy america? they are doing
their all to relocate assets and balance sheets offshore while encouraging you
to go long the usa.
And where do they get this buffet is the ‘ordinary guy next door’ and a self made
trillionaire???? He is the son of a senator and used those connex and influences
to fix capital.
I said 4 times early this week that big boys are going take this market up a few points beyond 1101 and then the market will tank. Market did exactly so far. I am not saying market will not come back to test 1120 though. I still think 1120 is in play.
November 12th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Why? Not enough volume, no big sell-off. Plus, taking it up on a low volume 1/2 holiday gains them nothing.
It’s too close to OPEX to really tank. Tomorrow or Monday will be bear trap time again. THEN it can tank to let off some steam, bounce off the lower trend lies for the final glorious year-end blow-off top.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
I agree, the rallies were much more convincing than is the sell-off.
the selling seems phony and trapish.
Got to play the who “We don’t get fooled again”!
As predicted down today, guidance into tomorrow look at the DJI. It should start down and should retest the resistance level at 10100-10125. You want to be a buyer around or close to this level. Signs to look for to trigger your buy are strong bounce or W follow buy small candles upward in the 1-5 minute chart. The bounce should take us to10200’s again. If you do not see the signs above do not buy since we might break the resistance and a more complicated pattern my be developing. I would post when I buy.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Man, you have been close to right on in the last few months–enjoy your posts.
As mentioned on this board hours before the opening bell, we will end in the red today, and we did. So here’s my sigh of relief. Did I make a boatload of money today, no, I went from being down about 6 1/2% to being down about 1-2% on my short etfs, but I’ll take it. Did I sell any before the closing bell, not a one. Will I regret it, maybe, but I doubt it. As a position trader I have a profit target and plan to hold until we hit it, which I think won’t be tomorrow but will be sometime next week. My feeling is we pullback another 1% or more by Monday’s closing bell. Definite bearish bias here, and a major correction before December wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
November 12th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
What positions are you holding right now?
November 12th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Thanks for the question Morris. I’m holding the following:
SDS
SKF
FAZ
TZA
BGZ
November 12th, 2009 at 5:38 pm
good luck. it is very unhealthy for markets to charge dead ahead and ignore
all but the stock kiddies gunning the s and p futures on every turn.
i still say the chinese will order obammy to stop with the unending lust for debt
and communism. yes, you heard me, the commies will tell the commie to
stop spending like a drunken yuhoo on their dime. thank heaven for communists
that save us from communists.
November 12th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Well stated Palladin, makes sense to me!
Hey nastrade and others who are still holding AXP shorts, your light at the end of the tunnel may be here: AXP locked in a “final sell”. It is a sell signal that also goes along with intraday reversal bar that confirms the bearish reversal pattern from the previous two daily candlesticks. If you have November puts, I think anything below 37 strike will expire worthless. If you hold shares short and willing to ride out the ups and downs, you may be able to cover this at penny stock prices. I am holding it until September 2010, for the record.
The DOW did not lock in a confirmed sell signal, as the close was too low and the stochastic destroyed. I will look for more signals in the coming days, including a second “buy VIX” signal that I can take to short the market again.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
I stay out most of the day just traded 2k short UYM at 31.10 and covered at 30.07
“I am holding it until September 2010, for the record” May I know why 2010? the next recession.. will be 2011 not 2010. Fed has a lot more to F before they create new recession. Don’t you think 0APR these banks have ALOT to make!!! AXP could be 60s in 2010
November 12th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
My system tells me this should be it for AXP, so I am not going to argue with it nor am I going to force my opinion on it.
September 2010 fits nicely as I know there are two more major declines coming in 2010, and I know the approximate dates. I’ve said before I only need data up to first week of December 2009 to map out what should be occurring in 2010. I don’t care if AXP rips higher and higher, I have call options to hedge against that. If it rips higher, I’ll sell lower strike calls and buy higher strike calls, essentially raising my short sale price up and up.
What I was really hoping for today was a straight up relentless short squeeze on AXP to force its price above $41 so I could sell more calls, unfortunately it didn’t do that. I still welcomed the outcome as I got rid of my 35 strike calls when AXP traded one last thrust up to $40.30, and from there it was down hill sliding. AXP calls are too concentrated at 37 – 40 strike, so theoretically those calls must be rendered worthless by opex. Puts are concentrated around 37 strike. I expect AXP to “somehow” migrate towards $37 by opex.
Welp I’m continuing to watch the USD for my clues. Obviously the FAZ position and EUR short I opened yesterday performed well today. We may be setting up for a nice double top which would be intersting but I will wait to see what happens.
Goingtoretireoneday – I also am holding FAZ, SKF, along with SRS. What is your thought as to where FAZ might get to in the next month or sooner? Today was a welcome relief with the crazy market going higher each week. Take alook at the Treasury budget. Treasury Budget – Level $-46.6 B $-150.0 B $-180.0 B to $-115.0 B $-176.4 B . With numbers like these how the government going to smoke and mirror the people any longer? In my estimation this market is gonna crash when you least expect it. JMHO . Good luck everyone and watch ya backsides!
November 12th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
FAZ next month below 15! Trust me on this… I went long at 58 and sold it at 8 early this year!
November 12th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
Right, except it will be FAS below 15 next month.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
you seem to have same faith like i had in FAZ when I get in at 58 I was sure it will be over 100 but it turn out it went other way… we can not fight with fed. I lost 96k in FAZ and always share with others just in case if it can help anyone… good luck, keep your stploss in place and you will be ok… i i wish if i had known there was such thing as stop loss…
Morris or anybody else who is playing Oil – What are your thoughts on the pattern developing? We broke out and raced up to the $81ish range and it’s now backtesting. It seems that there is strong support at $77 with it bouncing off that area 3 times (and again today) in the last few weeks however each high is less and less high. Is that a bullish or bearish pattern? I think it’s some sort of wedge.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
I see the same wedge formation which usually resolves with a huge upthrust to
12% higher highs. Can the recovery handle it? Is there an event that will drive
oil to new rec highs?
This current appetite for risk advance reminds me soooooo much of the 147 oil
peak and the days leading up to it. All news was good, all dips bought. And
lowly lead, yes lead. . . it is racing to near record highs of $1/lb.
China gearing up for all the lead its gonna need to poison our imports with?
actually, I think it’s a descending triangle… I think….
that may be bearish. thoughts?
November 12th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Ah, scroll up. I made the same observation earlier today.
Thanks for the question nightrider. Actually I have a very small position in SRS as well, but its much smaller than my other positions so I didn’t mention it in my last posting, but have mentioned on this board in the past 24 hours. So it looks like I’ve got all 3 positions that you have. Regarding your question about FAZ, its really hard to say, except that I do feel we’re at strong support and I might even call a bottom on FAZ at just below this level, so I don’t think it will be going much lower. As to how high and how soon, and what happens in the next month or sooner, I have 2 thoughts. If the crash we expect happens and it very well could in the next few weeks, I think we could easily see FAZ at $60 or higher, possibly much higher but at least $60. If we don’t have the crash in the next month, I still think FAZ we’ll be substantially than it is today in one month, perhaps around $35 or slightly higher.
Regarding the Government smoke and mirrors action, I agree m100% that it can’t continue much longer. Really what they want is for more and more greedy or desperate people to jump into the market believing its just going up forever, and then they will tank it. I see a 4 or 5% drop in a single day happening, and when greedy bulls buy even more on the dip, it will then go down another 4-5%, and when the desperately believe it will just go right back up and average into their long positions, it will then go down another 3-4% and all of a sudden these folks will be in major pain, and not know what to do but sit and hope and pray, at which time the market will go down another 4-5% and we’re off to the races downward. Just my 2 cents, but I feel pretty confident about it playing out that way.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Thank you for your reply Goingtoretireone day. Now that I said the market will crash I’m sure I will get alot of coments about that but just remember: Don’t say I didn’t warn you all naysayers. Good Luck to everyone and be very careful.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
No problem buddy. Lets see a good down day tomorrow, hopefully much more than 1% down. I’d like to see the down below 10k at the closing bell.
Link for lead prices and other base metals. Worth watching because lead, yes lead
has broken out to new highs.
Now, what is lead good for, bullets and foodstuffs imported from china–which will get us
first?
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html
LOL, old girl neighbor commented to me (in her 90’s) that last time scrap and metal prices
went nuts like this was in the late 30’s as japan bought every bit of metal to send back to us
in the form of bullets and bombs.
Naw, can’t be. . . we own them and the germans are under thumb. . . . i hope!!!
Nice to see bears coming out of hibernation in force. A down day after six straight up days and these guys are calling for a crash. I have my powder ready
Shanky, S135 and Mohan were knocked out in the first run.
Now we have the Palladin and his sidekick Goingtoretireoneday, along with goldmansucks – he will show up soon… getting ready for the next round- Only time will tell.
GLTA
November 12th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
No, i said i won’t be fooled again. Ready to load up in am (which probably means
we are going down to dow 2000 LOL)
I said i don’t trust this decline and am ready for a snap back on short notice.
Yeah, you heard it first, as soon as my fills are confirmed, WW3 or asteroid will
hit earth. China will keep obammy hostage till loans paid? Put him on display
in hong kong zoo?
Wait, an event like that would rally. Just j/k so don’t get all pissy, just don’t trust
the decline, see it as a bear trap nee squeeze into opex. Be fast or be broke.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
lol
November 12th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
i believe we are close and i have some market veterans on my side
woo 1120
thats my target friday opex
November 12th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
Hey Jon,
Never thought of myself as anybody’s sidekick, and as you can see from Palladin’s above comments, we’re not 100% on the same page at all. It appears he sees the merit in a pullback, but is clear that each one has been a bear trap time and time again for the past 7 months. A very reasonable evaluation. I on the other hand am convinced that we’re about to have a major correction and it won’t be a bear trap at all.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
And i am convinced that i will soon be impregnating pam anderson, i have
the means, the potential and the motive.
If i hop out of bed to post here. . . i need treatment.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Great comments Palladin old pal, its nice to have some humor on this board. Keep it up!
November 12th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Goingtoretireoneday, I was just joking in good faith
I did not make money today but I am glad some one on stocktock did.
UP or down we all need to make money
1120 top
November 12th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Could overshoot to 1150, just like how AXP overshot its wedge resistance by 2.5%. How will you know if P3 arrives? The first wave down from the top should give no warnings at all and the down wave should be relentless with heavy sell side volume. Until you see that, it’s best to keep buying the dips.
November 12th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
P3 will be huge maybe down to 400 spy by may-sept.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
I will be buying EVERYTHING I can get my hands on come October 2010. Think this 8 months long rally is amazing? I believe we’ll have an even bigger prize if you survive P3.
November 12th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Fritz what’s P3?
November 12th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
3rd series of declines as defined by EW theory. . . the big one, the
depression type decline that has the potent to take dow down by 90%.
The shortsellers holy grail.
November 13th, 2009 at 12:21 am
F EW theory dude let’s pray we never go close to that 90% I rather loss all my money but never wish for this… millions poor people will just sink further if that happens
my only fear is that they have taken $ up today enough for tomorrow to let it sink and give this market room to go up 1 to 2%
I hope I am wrong
November 12th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
this market no longer needs any news to keep going higher or low… it’s all USD play until fed find new player
November 12th, 2009 at 9:51 pm
YUp you nailed is nastrades….its about the $
Hard to say what’s going to happen here. Playing small positions. Buying into the dips. I’ll probably take profits at the infamous 1120 area. Have to maintain my bullish bias. I expect another zig zag that will draw out for a few months. Bears
will curse ew theory. More bear bloggers will stop posting, ala evilseculator. Calls for new all time highs by the end of 2011. Unfortunately
it will crumble some day. I’ll trade both sides until then.
http://img501.imageshack.us/img501/2317/tilt2k7alizee02od4.jpg
can someone help decipher this for me.
tia.
$BDI up another whopping 5.5% today.
November 12th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
now up 83% off it’s late Sept. low.
No doubt dry bulk shipping has picked up again.
HARPEX has still barely moved above it’s all time lows.
Obama on the phone with bankers, “you guys better start buying tomorrow or no salary next year too” lol