Intraday Commentary ~ 11/11/2009

By
woo
– November 11, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary

12:56 pm PST update:

woo1month

coiling like crazy…

8:47 am PST update:

here’s the 1 month SPX to look at:

woo1month

original post:

Happy Veteran’s Day. So Idan is out for about 2 weeks on a business trip, so I’ll be managing the intraday until he returns.

Here is my post from October 23rd of fibs:

http://www.stocktock.com/2009/10/23/ew-and-fib-update/

I’ll post some updates on those charts here, which will hopefully give us a better idea of what is to come on the market.

This is the current chart with no fib projections. This gives you retraces based on the current 1101 peak area and shows the major trend lines up till now.

woo1year

We went down to the 50% retrace of one of the major rises of this 5 of 5 wave, but we never went down to the 38% retrace of the 5 of 5 wave which are the yellow fibs, so this 5 of 5 is still very much alive. You’ll also notice that we broke slightly below the pink retrace, but only to hit a trend line. Both the green and white major trend lines were recovered as well, which means we’re back in a bullish channel and bullish trend. To me this movement is very bullish, and we’re way above all the retraces of the drop that occurred to the 1029 level from the 1101 peak.

Here’s a current version of the 6 month 60 minute 1118 target chart that I posted in earlier posts:

woo6month - 1118

This current area on the 60 minute of 1092-1093 can still create resistance. We’ll see tomorrow if we start heading above or below that point. I still think that the 1118-1122 area is a very real target. We’re slightly overbought so we could see a drop to retest the trend line that we see on the 1101 chart that I first posted.

Here’s my overall long term view updated from the last post and how it’s been playing out:

woo2year

I think this chart looks pretty. Please refer to the post link above and a few older posts on a better explanation on the counts for this chart.

Here’s a closer look at a potential 1 month chart:

woo1month

So far we’ve been staying within that light green channel, only to break above or below it to hit fib points. I think that this will continue to fill in nicely and points towards 1122 coming up in the future. It will be hard to say exactly how we get there, and as I mentioned before, there may be a drop that occurs prior to that to test the bottom of that trend line.

So you have to be careful with this market whenever it’s sitting in the middle of channels, it’s also sitting RIGHT on the 1092-1093 fib, there is less and less resistance to the north of here, and there are quite a few fibs below that can be targeted, so place tight stops on any positions taken.

Let’s look at more specific stocks:

AMZN

wooamzn

This has been a very high volatility stock that a lot of people have been eyeing. Notice that we hit a major trend line, and are slightly above all the fib projections towards 141. You have to be careful shorting here because we had a slight trend line break today. In AH we went into new highs for this stock as well. If we break north of that trend line we could get a HUGE surge north. It’s overbought, but we’ve seen stocks rally even in overbought conditions, so it might be better to attempt short/put positions after the stock drops below that retrace below 130.

AAPL

wooAAPL

This stock is back above that green channel again and also sitting above a fib. I would place stops right below there and hope to ride this up higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if this retests the 208-209 area again. If not you take a small loss, if it does break north and with enough momentum, you have the chance of breaking north towards 217. The top red trend line hasn’t been tested yet, so we’ll see how the market reacts when it gets there.

ERX

wooerx

I don’t know about you, but I’m really liking the long term of this ERX chart at this moment. I won’t hold ERX below 44, but above it I’m leaning bullish. I would love to see a test of the trend lines north of here which are 55+ which is a good 8 points north of here.

XLF

wooxlf

XLF is currently stuck between 14-15 and will probably stay that way a bit. I’m not going to touch this until we see a break above or below this area. Then I can comfortably grab a position and place stops above or below the break.

BAC

wooBAC

This is another hard one to really grab a great position on at the moment. You see that we’re in the pink channel. We’re below the 50ma which will be some resistance above here. I wish we were in the blue channel and above and out of the pink channel, that would be a great bullish indicator. Right now I’m also going to be watching for wedge breaks.

All these major trend line and major fibs that we see will become REALLY useful when things start breaking down. But if it’s a horizontal wedge, it will be a bit harder to make money off of them, compared to if they are ascending or descending channels/wedges. I’ve been playing the market very sparsely lately and am waiting for that beautiful moment to grab a larger short term call or put position. I think things should start clearing up more this week, and wouldn’t be surprised if we headed into new highs before the week is over. Market will do everything it can to trap and confuse though, so you have to be on your guard whenever an EW 5 of 5 minimum requirement has long since been met, and we’re possibly retesting previous highs. They won’t hand you money that easily. Always remember the importance of stops, and locking in profits. Never worry about missing out on big moves, just make sure you’re looking for the opportunities that do come, then move on to the next trade and next opportunity (easier said than done right haha). I’ll try and post some updates throughout the intraday, but have been pretty busy at work lately, which is why I haven’t been able to post as actively.

Good luck everyone!

About woo