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11
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12:56 pm PST update:
coiling like crazy…
8:47 am PST update:
here’s the 1 month SPX to look at:
original post:
Happy Veteran’s Day. So Idan is out for about 2 weeks on a business trip, so I’ll be managing the intraday until he returns.
Here is my post from October 23rd of fibs:
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/10/23/ew-and-fib-update/
I’ll post some updates on those charts here, which will hopefully give us a better idea of what is to come on the market.
This is the current chart with no fib projections. This gives you retraces based on the current 1101 peak area and shows the major trend lines up till now.
We went down to the 50% retrace of one of the major rises of this 5 of 5 wave, but we never went down to the 38% retrace of the 5 of 5 wave which are the yellow fibs, so this 5 of 5 is still very much alive. You’ll also notice that we broke slightly below the pink retrace, but only to hit a trend line. Both the green and white major trend lines were recovered as well, which means we’re back in a bullish channel and bullish trend. To me this movement is very bullish, and we’re way above all the retraces of the drop that occurred to the 1029 level from the 1101 peak.
Here’s a current version of the 6 month 60 minute 1118 target chart that I posted in earlier posts:
This current area on the 60 minute of 1092-1093 can still create resistance. We’ll see tomorrow if we start heading above or below that point. I still think that the 1118-1122 area is a very real target. We’re slightly overbought so we could see a drop to retest the trend line that we see on the 1101 chart that I first posted.
Here’s my overall long term view updated from the last post and how it’s been playing out:
I think this chart looks pretty. Please refer to the post link above and a few older posts on a better explanation on the counts for this chart.
Here’s a closer look at a potential 1 month chart:
So far we’ve been staying within that light green channel, only to break above or below it to hit fib points. I think that this will continue to fill in nicely and points towards 1122 coming up in the future. It will be hard to say exactly how we get there, and as I mentioned before, there may be a drop that occurs prior to that to test the bottom of that trend line.
So you have to be careful with this market whenever it’s sitting in the middle of channels, it’s also sitting RIGHT on the 1092-1093 fib, there is less and less resistance to the north of here, and there are quite a few fibs below that can be targeted, so place tight stops on any positions taken.
Let’s look at more specific stocks:
AMZN
This has been a very high volatility stock that a lot of people have been eyeing. Notice that we hit a major trend line, and are slightly above all the fib projections towards 141. You have to be careful shorting here because we had a slight trend line break today. In AH we went into new highs for this stock as well. If we break north of that trend line we could get a HUGE surge north. It’s overbought, but we’ve seen stocks rally even in overbought conditions, so it might be better to attempt short/put positions after the stock drops below that retrace below 130.
AAPL
This stock is back above that green channel again and also sitting above a fib. I would place stops right below there and hope to ride this up higher. I wouldn’t be surprised if this retests the 208-209 area again. If not you take a small loss, if it does break north and with enough momentum, you have the chance of breaking north towards 217. The top red trend line hasn’t been tested yet, so we’ll see how the market reacts when it gets there.
ERX
I don’t know about you, but I’m really liking the long term of this ERX chart at this moment. I won’t hold ERX below 44, but above it I’m leaning bullish. I would love to see a test of the trend lines north of here which are 55+ which is a good 8 points north of here.
XLF
XLF is currently stuck between 14-15 and will probably stay that way a bit. I’m not going to touch this until we see a break above or below this area. Then I can comfortably grab a position and place stops above or below the break.
BAC
This is another hard one to really grab a great position on at the moment. You see that we’re in the pink channel. We’re below the 50ma which will be some resistance above here. I wish we were in the blue channel and above and out of the pink channel, that would be a great bullish indicator. Right now I’m also going to be watching for wedge breaks.
All these major trend line and major fibs that we see will become REALLY useful when things start breaking down. But if it’s a horizontal wedge, it will be a bit harder to make money off of them, compared to if they are ascending or descending channels/wedges. I’ve been playing the market very sparsely lately and am waiting for that beautiful moment to grab a larger short term call or put position. I think things should start clearing up more this week, and wouldn’t be surprised if we headed into new highs before the week is over. Market will do everything it can to trap and confuse though, so you have to be on your guard whenever an EW 5 of 5 minimum requirement has long since been met, and we’re possibly retesting previous highs. They won’t hand you money that easily. Always remember the importance of stops, and locking in profits. Never worry about missing out on big moves, just make sure you’re looking for the opportunities that do come, then move on to the next trade and next opportunity (easier said than done right haha). I’ll try and post some updates throughout the intraday, but have been pretty busy at work lately, which is why I haven’t been able to post as actively.
Good luck everyone!
Woo,
Awesome analysis. Do you see if there is a possibility to head higher – say Dow 11000 or so. Seems like a bullish trend and it has not even started rolling over.
November 11th, 2009 at 3:20 am
not at the current wave movement. if you look at my long term view, i put P3 coming up sometime soon, and heading south for quite a while. in order for a movement higher to 11000s on the DOW, we would still need a significant dip of P2, for a large 3 wave down, which means no matter what, whether we’re headed higher than this area or not long term, we need to AT LEAST drop to the 940-950 level first.
from there, we could get weird corrective moves, or a test of lower 61% fibs at 840, but we’ll worry about that when that happens. i would say sub 1000s on SPX before even a remote chance above 1140-1150+ area. but that’s my assessment, could be wrong, and i’ll be apologizing to everyone at 1200 if that hits before a strong dip south. =P
November 11th, 2009 at 3:21 am
for now i’m placing the possible top at 1118-1122 area roughly. i’ll have a better idea of whether this is true or not as we get more market movement.
November 11th, 2009 at 5:59 am
A major dip in the market is coming but first a chaotic move higher that traps everyone. I want to hear people saying the Dow is going back to 15,000.
The bear trend cycle lasted for 17 months, the opposite tcycle usually lasts 1/2 or 1/3 of the original trends length. Therefore 1/2 of the bear cycle length is 8.5 months.
March 09, 2009 + 8.5 months takes us to sometime around in December the bull trend will come to a stop(for at least a 15% correction) (not only that, but the 41-trading day and 3-month cycle is at the SAME time peaking in December.. the exact date is unknown and one can only speculate.)
A 15% correction is coming.. but IMO not in November. I put out a study that shows the DJIA index is never -15% lower on Jan 1st from what it was on November 1st in the past 44 years. The DJIA was 1029 on Nov 2nd, therefore the market could technically dip to the 850 area.
Bottom line: The 1150-1250 level will be huge resistance in December, and if hit in December will likely signal a top according to cycle theory (there are way too many cycles peaking in December; however this also means the market will explode going into it;s top, hence why I am positioned long..)
November 11th, 2009 at 7:57 am
Zee – if we want to go long with some lottery plays on the SPY – what would be a good entry point – or do you think this move is done ?
November 11th, 2009 at 10:51 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p66931730572&a=178732777O
woo thank you for your great charts 1119 looks good
November 11th, 2009 at 10:54 am
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p66931730572&a=178732777
November 11th, 2009 at 5:44 am
Its a comfort to hear you say that woo. I’m 100% short for 16 days now and strongly believe the correction you mention will indeed happen. Getting a bit anxious waiting, but I have a feeling its coming very, very soon.
November 11th, 2009 at 6:04 am
You are likely right; however timing is everything…. The traders in 2000 who shorted the Nasdaq at 4300 were completely right on market direction but lacked the timing, the real question to ask these traders is whether they covered at 5000
, before the historic drop.
GL.
First, great post woo.
Next, onto the USD and some conversations with Palladin yesterday. Here are some very sound reasons why the DXY and USD will bounce and likely nicely, in the coming days to weeks-
The United States Dollar is Needed Worldwide, for Now…
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=474
Which falls into why many Elliott Wavists see P3 coming upon us very soon, based on the charts. Something will bring this market down into P3 and it just may be “the rising USD” in the end. (dollar up, dow down)
November 11th, 2009 at 9:34 am
I think the dollar bounce is going into long gold? India. china and misc other
central bankers have lost hope in the dollar and turned to PMs as prop hedges
vs the mand dollar holdings.
I suspect the fed is throwing huge dollar amounts at c/bankers for use at fed auctions
to support low interest rates (indirect/direct bidder term thrown around).
I was impressed when both the dollar and gold ralled for that brief 2 day bounce.
it foretold the future of 2500 gold, IMO.
Careful here. The money on the sidelines talk is going to gold, gold has been
accepted and allowed as margin to secure other holdings and debt at the CBIE
and beyond. If you are bearish, go PM’s. The next stock corrective round will involve
the imploding of the usd, not a bounce.
Berneanke never saw the housing boom/bust, never anticipated the lehman debacle, and he don’t understand what he is doing now. The run on the usd will
make the argentine peso collapse look mild when compared.
Good luck all, looks like they will rally the stock market again this morning making the time and percent of this rally the largest to date.
Remember my long IOC into expiry trade. Huge Gas Field and LNG terminal
which is sure to attract the
November 11th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Yes, it is complicated, that is for sure and who knows what will really happen (Especially with the gold wildcard.). The main thing that gives me faith in a USD bounce, at least, is oil or the petrodollar. (fact that most major oil exchanges only trade in USD.) The world cannot afford oil much higher than it is now, otherwise it will extinguish their stimulus’ and bailouts.
thanks woo.
Anybody have any thoughts on UNG? Its about the only thing thats been going south on this whole run up since march.
Good stuff as always. I’m riding this guy up until those levels at least.
I was able to pick up 200 FAS @ 78.00 in the AH yesterday (and I posted it on the intraday right afterwards). I needed something to hedge against holding ERY overnight and I’m glad I did it. Maybe I will get an opportunity to get out of ERY without too much damage at some point in the day. It is a smallish position (just 1000 shares @ 11.10).
Question: What was I thinking when deciding to hold a 3X bear position overnight going into a holiday?
Answer: I wasn’t thinking.
A special thanks goes out to FAS for being liquid in the AH.
Good luck to all today!
November 11th, 2009 at 7:33 am
hahaha. There’s still a bit of hope on ERY. You might be able to turn a profit on both if you time it right. There have been tons of times where I thought something was a good idea only to make a new chart or find a new fib/trend line a few hours later and feel like it was a big mistake. Also a ton of times where I just got plain lucky after realizing the higher risk lol. Good luck! You’ve been knocking them out of the park lately, even if this turns out a strike its nothing on your overall batting avg hehe.
November 11th, 2009 at 7:41 am
Thanks! Great work on the intro material this morning.
woo, i am still holding my AXP short which I shorted way too early… I do not know how much high AXP can move along with the market. any thoughts on AXP? If it is set to go higher then I am not sure at this level should i dump it at open today with loss of 10% or hold.
thanks
November 11th, 2009 at 7:53 am
Nastrades, I mentioned my analysis of AXP a couple of days ago ….
Right now AXP is very oversold, however it could still do a final push up …. there is a confluence of strong resistance @ 40.25 … with a LT trendline from the highs cutting a trendline from the lows …
Additionally, trending indicators show that AXP has started a trend …. if it breaks the 40.25, then next resistance is 41.28 and then 42.5 …
42.5 level is also the tgt for the triangle, that AXP broke out of – hence it is my preferred point …
My preferred point for buying puts on this will be somwhere between 41.25-42.5 – seeing the action on 41.25 … however seeing the reliabiity of the patterns, I think this will probably reach 42.5 …
I would watch the action @ 40.25 …. if it seems to go up after that, then I would either buy calls to hedge or decide to dump the position for a loss …
Just my 2 cents …. hope it helps
November 11th, 2009 at 8:06 am
Thanks Anjali, since i can’t do options (tda blocked me) I will have to dump it if it moves above 40.25… it’s sad I have never thoughts I will loss this much from AXP. Idan told me to go long but at that point i was already short and was willing to let it go to 38.25 which was above it’s new high… with TDA half of the time my stp limit order don’t triger….
November 11th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Idan mentioned to go long on AXP ? When was this ?
November 11th, 2009 at 8:26 am
some times last week but not here
November 11th, 2009 at 8:30 am
I have to leave shortly and from Iphone it’s hard to use stocktock.. i’ll be on gmail if you could ping me plz nabbasi@gmail.com
November 11th, 2009 at 8:33 am
Who me ?
November 11th, 2009 at 8:55 am
sorry yes you Anjali… i guess Woo went back to sleep
Wow, it might gap above the previous high on the S&P. 1120 might be in short order.
This could line up with Zee’s call for a November 17th high.
Zee – Your analysis of cycles is quite impressive and congrats for the outstanding returns you have been getting. Is there resources on the net or books I can read on how to calculate cycles.
My own analysis of the 41 day cycle showes it peaking sometime early December (same conclusion as yours). I am not sure how you came to the conclusion that the 3 month cycle is peaking in December
November 11th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Zee / Rocky … Can you post an updated chart of the cycles showing the Nov / Dec dates ?
super…thanks woo!
Thank you woo.
Happy “Double Top” Day. I mean Veteran’s Day.
Time to practice your down hill slide !
Thanks Woo!
Once this bad boy gets over 1100 we’re booming higher.
so all my positions are green at the moment.
bought erx @47.53 and stopped out @48.50
my aapl call position is up 16%
my amzn put position up 1%
aapl just reached the tip of my flare a little while ago, i have an order to sell that.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:06 am
Hi Woo,
I was burned again…LOL…anyway:
- GS – So far so good as I was expecting. Nice profits on CALLs
About AMZN. I was heavily burned about the &%$^#@ upgrade that made it to pop almost 6% this week. Anyway I still believe that it topped. This is the reason why I bought more PUTs…..What do you think about it on EW perspective?
Thanks
November 11th, 2009 at 10:17 am
I am burned as well from AMZN and got out with over 7% loss… if you could get out of AMZN it is going to 140+
November 11th, 2009 at 10:18 am
i think it could drop a bit here…
if it breaks new highs i’m getting out. i loaded some puts today at open.
woo or zee,any catalyst for this market to correct 10-15% or just cycles
Bought SCO @12.68. GL.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Sold all SCO @12.90. GL.
sold 1000 shares of ERY @ 10.80 (down 2.7% from my entry @ 11.10 on Monday); -$300.00
November 11th, 2009 at 10:05 am
up almost 800 on the FAS I bought yesterday as a hedge for the ERY so all is well
Shorting Opportunity:_______Yahoo_______ 20 Day EMA crosses 50 Day EMA.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Shorting Opportunity______JNPR______20 Day EMA crosses 50 Day EMA.
Well we broke through the great wall of china @ 110.34 anybody have an idea what the next level of significant resistance is..?
FAZ down to 18.40 Is anyone buying here or does it go to 17.50 or 15 or 10
ISEE last 20 mins is 191; 171. That’s about the most bullish in a long long while. The last time we had something like this was Oct 14 09. Today might finally be the day for all bear dreams to come true. I had disposed of all longs and is now 80% short on Jan and Mar Puts. Its time for me to join my bro bears in arm and undergo some countertrend pain treatment
November 11th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Brought at 1102-1104. Top was 1105. So far only had 2 pts of pain… It should be bearish if spx is only able to stay above 1101 (prev top) for only 35 mins. Weekly and daily candlesticks look good if today closes below 1093. Good luck, bears.
bought puts at 105. getting overbought.
tons of flares south…
November 11th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Woo, are those Dec SPY 105 puts? What price did you get in at?
November 11th, 2009 at 10:23 am
november puts. this is a scalp. the market will probably go back in the 1105 area. there is a trend line slightly north of here. if that trend line breaks which is spy 110.85 or so, i’ll get out. that’s probably 1106 or so on spx.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:33 am
Woo. Just took the time to read thru your morning post. Great stuff and many thnx.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:15 am
nice call.
NAS – AXP above 40.25 and confirmed break … be careful
November 11th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Anjali, OMG it wasn’t easy seeing this crapt going above 40.50… Anjali it’s back to below 40.25 so what do you think now?
As of this morning’s open, my analysis on the three index told me to go into cash, so I am following that. I have my AXP shorts hedged, and I am not worried about it. It did break its rising wedge resistance (in place since January 2009) but that’s expected. I still believe the top is within 10% of $39.38 (which agrees with Anjali’s $42.5). I warned everyone here not to follow my trades on the financials last Friday as I flipped into suicidal mode. I have now closed all positions except my AXP hedged short.
Gave away $20k of $70k I made since shorting on October 19, I’m not complaining.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:14 am
I gave back 160% of what I made
you are very lucky!
about to step out for a while. sell order in for FAS @ 83.00. buy order in for SCO @ 12.50. best of luck to all!
——— SRS ———- the few shares i bought at $9.20 stopped out at a break of $9.00/. ive run a few calculations and im putting a buy order at $8.57
maybe it doesnt get that low and i miss out. missing out is ok with me.
i’m looking for at least a good 5 point solid drop. put position is doing well on spy nov. hopefully this is a quick scalp.
hoping to get out of amzn before day is over too, but don’t mind holding if the trend line doesn’t break.
—- HRS — nyse
sold short — overbought and not so hot last 1/4 report.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hrs
November 11th, 2009 at 10:40 am
— HSE.TO — toronto
bought $28.61
November 11th, 2009 at 10:42 am
$44.82
stop out if above $45.20 closing bell
So we have made 50% retrace on DOW. S&P is next. Perhaps we keep moving higher for next few sessions
My short list AXP, AMZN, AAPL
November 11th, 2009 at 11:15 am
stay away form these suckers! unless you are willing to take a hit
November 11th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Playing the options for a 5-7% gain, just need a $1-1.25/share move, nothing long term. AMZN is already down $0.60. AXP looks the strongest.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
20% gain on aapl puts…will wait and see if markets comes back later in the day.
Our dollar is trying to get her head above water for another gasp of air.
UUP went green
ok. flare finished off on spx. currently up 25% debating whether to trail a stop or to sell….
November 11th, 2009 at 10:52 am
thanks for the help timing my short sale in HRS … it met up with resistance at the same time you were posting a potential pull back.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:57 am
good times.
currently up 35% on my spy nov puts.
only up 1% on amzn lol. resilient bastard…
Bastards trying to take my hard won profits. Eat my dust suckers!
hitting fib and trend line here…
might bounce.
Was that a draw play to suck all the shorts in then stomp them out ..Hmmmm I wonder what the next move will be ?
November 11th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Setup for short squeeze at the open, and then long squeeze 45 minutes later. This is why my analysis wanred me to go into cash this morning.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:06 am
*warned
November 11th, 2009 at 11:13 am
what now
November 11th, 2009 at 11:15 am
I really don’t know, except that the DOW is about to relinquish the Grand Bear Market trendline it just conquered.
AXP top price within 10% of $39.38, that I have 99% confidence. Don’t know when the big drop on AXP will occur though, but it should be before Dec 9.
——— STATE THE OBVIOUS ——— and maybe the market will care ?
probably not but i guess its worth a shot http://www.cnbc.com/id/33850435
Market rolling over, no retail to sucker higher prices off onto. The bull – bear ratio has inversed
itself from prior record bullish.
Today could be the key reversal date that we seem to be exper every couple of days but i am
not convinced till i see a close of down 3% on higher volume.
FWIW famed bear Jim Chanos (shorter of Worldcom, dot com ponzy scheme, Enron) has now
called the china miracle a ponzy scheme built on smoke and miracles with a smattering of
fabricated earnings and GDP reports.
Jim has made me $$$ calling COCO top of $21 (now 15 and i am still short(: and tipping off
the way online educators were reporting earnings and enrollment.
Scaling in shorts on FUQI & RINO starting today with thinking being they have rallied most so
may suffer greatest?
Scaling shorts but feel that this OpEx could be a disaster, a window breaking instead of the
anticipated window dressing. Big money has scalded the bears and will now start to devour
the stock kiddies bidding up every little dip like it was the endo da world.
Will post my short fills on china stox as they get filled. My idiot broker insists on confirmed
borrows before allowing short.
Good luck to all and a special thanx to the stock kiddies about to fill my a/c.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:12 am
Looks like you may be right on a market turnaround. This kiddie didn’t help you out today. Delivering horses to hunters early AM and missed my market open scalp. Not playing anything right now. As in nada and rien.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:24 am
There you go again
coming out of the woods on every downdraft and getting whacked…let see if this happens again or a holiday gift.
The older you grow the harder it gets to LEARN
November 11th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Ummm…I came out of the woods this AM but didn’t get whacked – not with the market anyway- that one bay horse gave me a good bump on the L shoulder tho….
November 11th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Val..it was intended for mr Pal
Anyways, One I day I intend to live in the country. getting tired of this suburban life.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Can’t blame you there. I couldn’t do the suburan lifestyle. But good some can becasue it keeps it quiet out here for the rest of us (=
GL in your trades today.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Good, u can carry in my firewood for me. LOL.
Out shooting coyotes this morning. Cold weather has driven em down
from Algonquin Park and lost a lamb last nite to wuffs or yotes. 2 hard
winters have depleted deer pop and current market conditions made me
shoot at something that would not squeeze back.
Just rememb, when markets are not allowed to have the standard 7-10%
corrections that are needed to stay healthy and cautious, they overdo it
to the downside in one fell swoop and so quick they don’t allow shorts to
hedge with.
Markets are like farmers. the 2 coyotes that left the planet this am
came back to eat the lamb carcass. May not be the ones that killed
but they were the greedy SOB’s that became ventilated.
If a bear stumbled down he could have joint them.
Since you guys keep talking about animals and markets, here is a little
gem this miserable 60 year old know it all can leave you with. . .
I Should Have!?
November 9, 2009
“… A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine connected to the door that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can’t open it again without going back into the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside. One day he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. ‘I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside,’ he thought, ‘but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in.’ While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. ‘I should have been satisfied with the eleven,’ he thought. ‘If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string.’ While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed. His problem was that he couldn’t give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return …”
… Why You Win or Lose, by Fred C. Kelly
I Should Have!?
November 9, 2009
“… A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine connected to the door that he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can’t open it again without going back into the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside. One day he had a dozen turkeys in his box. Then one walked out, leaving eleven. ‘I should have pulled the string when there were twelve inside,’ he thought, ‘but maybe if I wait, he will walk back in.’ While he was waiting for his twelfth turkey to return, two more turkeys walked out. ‘I should have been satisfied with the eleven,’ he thought. ‘If just one of them walks back, I will pull the string.’ While he was waiting, three more turkeys walked out. Eventually, he was left empty-handed. His problem was that he couldn’t give up the idea that some of the original turkeys would return …”
… Why You Win or Lose, by Fred C. Kelly
November 11th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
I came across a cool quote this AM that may be well-known but is new to me
“Courage is fear holding on a moment longer”.
Hold down the fort. I need to move some wood before this next storm hits – and if you were a neighbor I’d help you move yours too.
Sold my BAC calls … I had posted when I bough … DEC 15 calls bought 1.02 sold 1.8 ..
PALM puts eating my profits though
… down big on that one with the surge today …
——– ONLY THREE POSITIONS —–
long HSE.TO $28.60
short WFT.TO $30.76
short HRS $44.82
STOPS ARE IN …. i am out.
good luck all!
Patiently waiting for 1121. We are to close not to go up and touch this monumental number.
Bought EDZ 1500 @ $5.50
i’m currently looking for 1092-1093 area…
we’ll see if it hits, plenty of room to drop to there if it wants.
well i stopped out of my spy.
bought @1.07
sold @1.45
it’s sitting slightly north of a trend line and fib right now, and took out my stop.
i’ve still got my amzn which is like dead even…useless…too much love for amzn at the moment. i decided to just sell my amzn. charts say it can fall more, but with the relative strength of the stock, i’m going to just avoid the puts. made $0. lost money on trading costs lol.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:28 am
1096.58 is the fib area to watch. also trend line RIGHT there at the moment.
market’s decision for above or below. i’m now sitting out, waiting for the next opportunity.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:29 am
60 minute chart would look much better if it backtested 1092-1093.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
better for a rise or fall ?
woo, here is an EW question I have for you: can you have an impulse wave down followed by a corrective wave that takes it higher than the previous hgih?
November 11th, 2009 at 11:38 am
you can. if you look up at the top. you’ll see my P2 which is an ABC expanded flat correction. so the P1 ended at one point, but the wave 2 of P2 brought lows to 666.
similar thing could happen.
Looks like market struck spx bear market trend line from 07. Question is … do we turn around or wait till 1050
November 11th, 2009 at 11:40 am
haha i’m asking a similar question. dunno if i’m waiting for 1050 just yet though. i think i’ll sit out the rest of the day, or only enter positions on individual stocks that have good positions. have to drive to work soon.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Oops I ment 1150 not 1050. The reason being depending on how you choose to draw the bear multi year line it could be at 1150 area atm or right here at 1105.
Guess we will see what the market thinks. Got out of my UYG a smidge early yesterday. Oddly not comfortable with taking a short right here. I get the feeling if we snap above 1105 it could run to the top of the channel in no time flat.
November 11th, 2009 at 11:48 am
where is the trend line? so based on TA if it breaks the bear line then would this be called a new “bull market”?
Thanks for bringing it up…
Only if the impulse was wave A of a correction. Wave B can go as high as 140% of wave A.
also a word of warning, if this doesn’t drop below this trend line, it could rise to the top of the channel (gap up while doing it) and go into highs way above 1105. if you’re short, make sure you have stops to lock in profits wherever you entered.
PING :::::::: Stock kiddies, pls read this in between making millions while gunning trades
and ignoring fundies while pouring over charts before asking the next
customer if they want fries with that?
Jim Chanos interview on the crash of china and why america has pinned its hopes on the coat
tails of its greatest creditor while choosing to ignore that china is 1.7 billion of impoverished
slaves saving gold and not buying Gucci handbags that are not fakes. . . .
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20679533/Jim-Chanos-Interview
LOL, sorry to offend, but someone has to remind the kids that markets rally to trap the over
confident and then crash at lightning speed to take away profits and principals.
Short sellers do not send stocks or markets down, its over confident longs being thrashed.
Never abandon caution, never be too bearish or bullish. . . . the greatest rallies come during
bear markets as do the furthest crashes
Now put away your crayons and charts LOL.
Hi Guys,
Only my 02 cents…
Unfortunately for the bears (like me), I do think that we have space to run mainly because financials were oversold and they started to recover
My bets based on my favorite TA indicator PPO (21,89) on daily basis
- SPY – it is in the middle of the upper cycle – means lot of space to run
- Financials – beginning of the upper cycle
BAC & GS – they are in the same level – middle of the cycle
WFC – It is the laggard. Just started
- Techs
GOOG – Forget. Too risky to bet
AMZN – It is still very overbought. I am still holding it with some huge losses. Just increased my position and bought more PUTs
AAPL – It has some space to run
RIMM – the best candidate. It is the laggard in the group
Conclusion
I bet that the market will go higher and WFC and RIMM are the laggards with best chances to go much further
November 11th, 2009 at 11:55 am
I agree with you on rimm..it was over sold and the android scare!
BTW here comes the red team!
November 11th, 2009 at 11:57 am
One additional info:
WFC – Next strike is 29. It is also the SMA(40). Currently at 28.75
RIMM – Next strike is 65. it is also SMA(40) and SMA(200) crossing. Currently at 64.20
I have orders to buys CALLs if those stocks reach those levels
November 11th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Add DNDN to the overbought on no news list.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Valerie,
Based solely on PPO (21,89), I would say that DNDN opportunity is over. RIMM is a best candidate because it is a laggard and just started to recover.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
too late to short? Look at it’s range. We’re right at the top- or were when I posted the heads up.
November 11th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Sorry for my mistake….I was thinking for long…not ready to short…like the market it has space to run
Anyway, like GOOG it is not ready too short yet. It can go further
AMZN is still the only one that PPO(21,89) is screaming for a reversal. I don’t think that it will hold in those levels for a long time.
Anyway despite my losses, I am still holding my January PUTs