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10
Nov
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2:50pm
Here’s a JPM 60 minute. Take a look at how we have a very nice inverse H&S formation.. but that’s still a very lagging formation after the market has rallied 6%. Also a break of the green channel would mean more downside for this stock. A break of the neckline (blue) would mean more upside:
2:47pm
Even though the market has rallied substantially pretty close to a double top, the financials are not even half way there… not only that but if you look at some individual names like JPM, they haven’t even completed forming an inverse H&S like most stocks have… The financials might be a drag on the S&P as we move forward unless we get some good news from them soon.
4:21am
Yesterday we blew through the 108.20 level like there was no resistance there. For those who wanted to know.. former wedge ascending support was there, and so i thought we would see some resistance. But, i always recommend to step out and either play small, or don’t play any positions before 10 am because of volatility in the market.
The market breaking higher yesterday was a sign of strength but also a sign that the wedge is no longer as important but that the megaphone (widening triangle) is the more pormenant formation. Both formations tend to be bearish, but for now we have more upside to the double top area… and eventually maybe the 50% retrace at 1120-1124.
Spy Daily:
Market is on fire. Wonder what’s up. Unemp @10.2 ?
bear trap sprung. shorts getting squeezed.
H&S (right shoulder) just completed on the SP and the DOW.
Dollar index was down 1% on the day. Current thinking is you gotta buy into stocks
before the dollar deflates to nothing. . . . so, gold, stocks and oil rocks higher.
If someone told you in march that gold and the S&P would share the 1100 level, which
would you choose?
Market will weave and wander back and forth across 10K for 2-4 months.
Best performing international stock exchange last year was zimbabwe, kept rising when
other markets crashed. All those trillion dollar notes they could use to buy a loaf of bread
or stocks.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:13 am
The canada dollar was up over 2 full cents yesterday. . . a huge move histor
speaking. Your largest trading partner is not china, not japan but canada followed
by Mexico. How long can we afford to keep selling you oil, wheat, etc., at old
rates in infalted dollars?
FWIW i remember being in the bank trying to sell dollars in 2007 while the US
dollar was plunging vs canada and hit a high of 1.175 in a huge sell off. We needed
to dump US dollars so what did we end up using the USdollars for? Silver, gold
and gold mutual funds
Who knew? We only ended up trading half the usdollars we held for gold and
sliver.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:09 am
Be careful. The DXY (USD against a basket of currencies; at 75.06 and bouncing…) may see 71 soon (This doom figure of 71 may actually trigger the next stock market down-turn; P3, who knows.), but could and likely should (for various geo-political reasons) see a bounce back up to around 80, if not more towards 90.
After that, many are talking USD crash. But, we shall see. When you look at how many countries use the USD as their currency or where the dollar is the main business currency, it is still amazing.
China still wants and needs a relative strong dollar… for now:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=470
November 10th, 2009 at 9:22 am
“They” have been predicting a stronger dollar for as long as i can remember,
its hard for something to gain when its being printed en masse and pays no
yield.
Bernanke needs to listen to what i told my teen daughters. . . No one will buy
what you keep spreading and giving away.
For those who are short AXP and in great pains right now, hopefully this experience have taught you to hedge your one way positions. I did, and that’s how I stayed calm and composed with AXP ripping higher and higher.
Technical analysis wise, if you draw a trendline connecting the tops from January 6 2009 onwards, that forms the rising wedge resistance. Draw another trendline from March 6 2009 connecting the lows on October 1 2009 and November 2 2009. What you will find is that this trendline goes through 3 candlesticks during July 8 – 10, but there was never a two bar break. 38.2% retracement of the entire move lower is $31.17, and 50% is $37.8, while 61.8% is at $44.43 If AXP price reaches $44.43, the lowest it can go during the next big drop (if it’s still coming LOL) will be $9.71 and not $0.97 that I had initially targeted.
The wedge resistance for November 10 2009 is at $39.52, and guess what was the low on March 17 2008? $39.50 And guess what prices AXP was trading right before Lehman? $36 – $42 range.
My overbought/oversold signal system combines the perfect alignment of moving averages, stochastic, and perfect setup on the RSI. Once a signal is triggered, I look at the MACD and DPO. Like I said in one of my post yesterday, I have not seen “overbought” signal triggered on AXP in a long time, going all the way back to June 4 2007 when it was trading at all time highs above $65. The last time it triggered an “oversold” signal was March 5 2009.
Last overbought signal triggered on GS is October 14 2009, when it closed at $192.28; intraday low on November 2 2009 is $165.3
One thing to always keep in mind, and the reason why you have hedges, is that there will be surprises with any TA expectation. What I expect for AXP today is to drop from the $39 level, but the market could surprise me with AXP moving up to $41. How you react to that and how you prevent getting yourself killed is more important than finding entry/exit points. I have had my share of pain when I was learning the market, and most of my trades now are entered with hedges in the opposite direction. If it’s very close to opex, and that you expect a stock to make a big move in a direction in very short time before opex, what you can do is long/short the equity and buy double the put/call options. This way you breakeven with the recovery of options fees (but you can still sell the options if they’re still worth something) and if the trade goes against you (surprise), the move should generally be greater and you can call/put to close your equity position and still make money on the other half of the options.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:31 am
Thanks Fritz that was very helpful, the account i shorted AXP is not approved for options so hedging with opitons is not an option for me…
November 10th, 2009 at 7:54 am
Why was AXP considered a good candidate for a short in the first place?
November 10th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Aside from the reasons they will give you, amex is tied to consumer spending
and jobs due to cred extension. Warren B also is its largest shareholder and
needs to clear funds so he can play with his model trains .
I am guessing he will be selling stuff at the top of its 52 week range, so WFC
and Axp are top sells from him as i am sure.
Unfort, the fed has stuffed axp full of taxpayer subsidzied cash and allowed bond
floats at the public purse’s gtee. Its hard not to make cash when you borrow at
zero or less and lend at 45% monthly. CEO of the credit card companies should be tony soprano but the board would not vote him in as his rates may
prove lower.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:35 am
misled by this market
November 10th, 2009 at 8:37 am
Its moves are generally wide range, and if you short/long 1000 shares at the top or bottom end it could make you $1k in one day. On top of that, it forms one of the most beautiful wedge formations I have seen, falling down or going up.
I actually don’t care which stock it is, if my system tells me to sell, I sell with confidence. Too bad I didn’t do that with GS as my philosophy prior to October 20 was not to bet against King Market Manipulator.
If my system tells me to buy, I also buy with confidence. I will pick up more SPY calls today to hedge as my system hasn’t fired a sell signal on any of the major index yet.
So now it’s back to the game plan I had prior to October 20, only short stocks that fired “sell” signals.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Fritz could you ping me whenever ur online plz nastrades@gmail.com
November 10th, 2009 at 9:08 am
“Its moves are generally wide range, and if you short/long 1000 shares at the top or bottom end it could make you $1k in one day”
This is what I do and on avg i make 1500 from 3k shares trading a day, but this time I got in at wrong spot
Futures pointing down. I don’t see a lot of resistance overhead. The russels which I am primarily short, is severely lagging behind the other indices. What does that tell me? Either this is a fakeout of the big caps/dow or the russels just hasn’t joined the party yet.
Unless we see substantial bear action I am probably going to use any weakness to wiggle out of my shorts.
Scenarios-
1.) Uber bear smackdown – I hold my shorts and place stops at breakeven
2.) Weakness but bouncing off of support that was once resistance on the multi-year trendline on the spy – I clear off 50-70% of my position and stay in cash
3.) Anything else/upside – I capitulate and move to cash
November 10th, 2009 at 8:41 am
Big caps leading the charge up on this last leg means people are trying to buy what they believe is saftey and not willing to take risk on the small cap plays. As with any topping action it is a bull trap and bear squeeze all at the same time….just depends on the hour or day you look at it.
New Lows for Stocks Next Year: Equities Bear
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33788675
these people need to be killed… mf don’t understand that this market was never based on reality!
——– PCLN ——– AMZN ———- remain on my DO NOT SHORT list. take a look at PCLN this morning. these companies are clearly the future of the economy. how on god’s earth did RSH get another upgrade?
I HAVE NO POSITIONS for now. we are now 10 days from OPEX.
Added another 1K to my UCO position. Now holding 2K at an average of $13.90.
Bought SCO @12.60. GL.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:24 am
Anitang…..didn’t you read the article I posted last night? Me thinks you could be on the wrong side of the trade!
November 10th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Cotton – could you post again pls ?
November 10th, 2009 at 10:33 am
No, I didn’t. Can you post it again pls?
November 10th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Here it is…..http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com
Also, they are getting ready to talk about this on CNBC in the next few minutes. You might want to tune in!
November 10th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Thanks Cottonman
I think around 110.30 should be good resistance,lets see if we can break that and if we do HS pattern is gone.
Ok, so this is getting weird.
For over a week all you have to do is buy the weakness at open, then sell.
The nice bonus is you get to enjoy the rest of the day.
Seems easy and obvious but it works, lol.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Uh huh. That game plan has been working for me. Swappped from TNA to BGU this Am though.
Okay, staying true to my system, I am now positioned long. A market up signal was fired to buy today’s open. I have backtesting on my side here, but I don’t think this can realistically run much farther to the upside.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:23 am
PERFECT TIMING TO GO LONG
November 10th, 2009 at 11:37 am
lol. I know!
November 10th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Actually minimally we should probably see new highs in the next few days. Or this is just a whipsaw, and this is still minute ii screwing with us. The probability is much lower though that we crash here.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
yeah, either it legs past the Oct high and blast off another 100 pts or it fails and chart readers can call it a double-top.
long some TZA 12.06 risking 10 cents
AXP looks like its consolidating for another move up ….
November 10th, 2009 at 10:54 am
So far so good for me. Short term target is $37
Idan, and anyone else who can weigh in:
Can we come up with a definitive list of online retail brokers that allow clients to short the triple ETFs (FAZ, FAS, BGU, BGZ, SPXU, etc.) and actually have the triple ETFs available for shorting?
Among these brokers, do some have the triples available more often than others?
Any help in this regard would be much appreciated.
PS–please also feel free to list brokers who NEVER have the triple ETFs available for shorting and/or do not allow clients to short, so we can also use process of elimination.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:06 am
I have used TD Ameritrade to short FAS and ERX, but they are not always available.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:07 am
They will only be available to short if their clients decide to buy the shares on margin….
November 10th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Interactive has them avail, TDWaterhouse not, etrade is hit and miss, will have
etf tri inverse on strong downdays and call them back when markets reverse,
the op of what a trader needs.
As I said yesterday I am waiting for S&P to pass 1101 by a few point may be around 1105 to add 20% shorts. I think big boys are going to push this market by a few points beyond 1101, and imagin how beautiful most bears are going to be stopped out and then market will tank again. I am not saying it will tank and never come back up again but I am expecting a sizable drop.
Geezus…………..I can’t friggin’ believe PCLN. Someone is short……glad it’s not me!
November 10th, 2009 at 10:47 am
tripled earnings
It looks like today is playing out just like last Friday…Flat !!! I hope the market moves one way or another.I would love to see it run up to 110.30 on the SPY then sell off.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:06 am
$$$ just broke 75. will be interesting to see how far it goes
November 10th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Dave…why would you love a sell off
why not jump on the bull wagon and make some money 
November 10th, 2009 at 11:53 am
So, you suggest buying the rips and selling the dips?
Buying at highs and selling out on lows will get u ridiculed here but the federal
reserve may notice and give you a senior position.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
so you think this is at high?
like the bears did when dow was at 7K 
So far only the top callers have been rediculed here!
I am havent rediculed my self yet and wont even if dow drop 2000pts or the crash that you have been dreaming…
Let me know when you decide to go long ! that will be the day..:)
November 10th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
just so you know. I went long. It might be today.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Sold my SRS and TZA bought at close yesterday and now long via
SSO@36.41 stops at 36.02
Trade a waste of time, no vol in market, may sell out of boredom.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Charco and Palladin, Welcome to the greener side
Lets make some money
November 10th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
I would play it either way but to me the run up is fabricated IMO I have a hard time buying into the fact that this is a healthy market and that is sustainable on its own.If the fed took the training wheels off this market would collapse.I feel a retracement is needed and healthy for this to climb higher..
November 10th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
dave,
retracement has happened 5-6% multiple times since March. You are correct on the trainign wheel, but only 1/3 of the stimulus has been spent so far according to the pundits so a lot more of pushing and shoving to go..so why not join the ride.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
I will be going long Jon because the rallies have lasted longer than the pullbacks..I do think that we are at the top end of the range right now and will go long once we bounce at the neckline…Do you think we are at the top of the trading range,I just do not see a catalyst to go beyond S&P 1100 but believe we have a nice trading range between 1040 and 1100..
65% of yesterday’s bond auction got bought and bid down by foreign central banks. . . .
why would anyone bid a 3 year bond down to 1.6% on a bond in a currency that lost 2.1%
on that given day? Answer: volume, LOL. Now we understand why bernanke is fighting
tooth and nail to prevent disclosure by the fed, they are giving foreign gov’ts dollars free to
buy bonds and keep the plates spinning for another auction period.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Giving banks and foreign governments money to buy our bonds. The name of the logic that dictates this policy is called the T-Bill Reason or the shorthand T-reason or if you eliminate the dash, simply treason.
Sold my UYG @ 5.68 (bought at 5.40). Going to wait to take a new position to see if the H&S scenario comes into play.
All the banks are red including GS..Might this market roll over today and what level are you guys looking for on the SPY for that sign?
The longer the market hovers above former resistance the more likely we are heading for another zig zag toward a new high, but the bad news for bears is this P2 top would be pushed out to next year.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
we aren’t going to close below my trendline today, and we probably wont tomorrow since its a light volume holiday. Thursday? maybe the bears will show up then.
SCO making a nice move now …
November 10th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
just shot through my initial target of 13.20
mkt gives me no choice but to be a bull…..sucks to be wrong but mkt is bullish. screw all that noise about weak volume, momentum, etc…..all just stories to lure people into being a bear. shorted the heck out of all the puts out there just to make some back. be long or be wrong!
November 10th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
LOL, where u been? And why did u post 2 hrs after i went long dohhhh !!!
Fritz, Did you MBIA on your system? Any implications to financials that you have been tracking?
November 10th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
I told you I was suicidal at time like this. Mis-timed it, and cost me a bit. It’s not going to happen for some time. For that I was not using my signal method, just thought I saw something buried in the options market.
I was not around during the Great Depression, so it’s a learning process for me, too.
I am still confident in my AXP signal, even if $39.38 is not the top, I found that when my system signals “sell”, the top price is within 10%, valid for up to one month. That’s why I would short with protective calls. I wish my system would flash more “buy” signals though lol. They would be extremely helpful during this rally. What my system attempts to pick out is the top/bottom price range within an 18-month window, that’s why only one “buy” signal was issued since February.
I will be going long Jon because the rallies have lasted longer than the pullbacks..I do think that we are at the top end of the range right now and will go long once we bounce at the neckline…Do you think we are at the top of the trading range,I just do not see a catalyst to go beyond S&P 1100 but believe we have a nice trading range between 1040 and 1100..
I pretty much trade within the bollinger bands since the market trades there 95% of the time.I wait for signals like overbought and oversold to determine which direction to trade.Right now im neutral waiting for this to hit the high mark,could it go higher sure but after the run we had a 500 point jump on low volume and all the bad news im hedging we retrace to 104 on the spy..
Sold all SCO @13.25. GL.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
I’m thinking of closing my position soon too. You caught a nice $0.65 move today; +5.16% in just a few hours!
November 10th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Hey Morris,
Any profits are nice
I missed the old days when oil was trading within the range of $65 and $75. Do you see a new pattern? It looks like oil is bouncing between $76 and $82.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Bought UCO@13.55. GL.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
I don’t see a pattern that is making me confident enough to trade more than 1000 shares at a time right now. This market is so unpredictable so I’m keeping the trades smaller and exiting faster.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
You are right. This market is unpredictable. I am so glad that I exited my SCO trade near the HOD and flipped into the UCO trade.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Anitang – what did you see that made you flip ? and where is your tgt on this ?
November 10th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
believe uco retests 13.18 area
November 10th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Hi Anjali,
Basically based on the market actions. Though I also use TA, I can’t tell you what I see; so far it works for me. If I’m wrong, I get out with a small loss. Besides, I feel more comfortable holding UCO than SCO; I am seeing oil has more upside potential in the coming months.
I don’t have a target yet. I may hold it for a longer term. I may also bail out anytime before EOD.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
anitang, good call this morning–however, based on using TA, don’t you have some idea about a stop?
November 10th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
I use stops most of the time.
Not alot of really good e/r’s today
PCLN HMIN CYD SGK FOSL a few others. JASO had a really nice report, but you wouldn’t know it by the stock action, at least not yet….
just as many bad or ho-hum reports as good ones today.
just shorted RIMM 63.59. 1% stop
November 10th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
longed JASO @4.11
November 10th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
didn’t take long to stop out of RIMM. 64.23 $200 loss
Anyone knows why USO is so weak?
November 10th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
The dollar was up a bit earlier today so that might be part of the story.
November 10th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
storm not as bad, trading in a wedge.
sold 1000 shares of SCO @ 13.20 (up 3.94% from my entry @ 12.70 yesterday); +$500.00
12 year topping action in the markets?
http://www.stockchartsvideo.com/nasdaq.php?c=4
I have been talking to you guys for 2 days that once big boys push this market a few points above 1101 and make all bears stop out then this market will have a sizable tank, that is where I am going to pull the triger and go short. I just an article below from someone you know him that is showing a scenario as my thought. Below is the link
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/11/reaction.html
November 10th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
FANTASTIC SITE, RECOMMEND and suggest your follow carl’s link to
contrarian trading.
the most important part of investing is following the AAII bull/bear ratio along with
the put call spreads. Charts are nice but bearish sentiment better forecasts rallies
and long profits than any other single factor.
It has made me a millionaire. . . . (i started with a billion, LOL).
NB To my thousands of followers/disciples: IOC interoil corp up 3% so far today
in advance of the usual press releases, drill results these crooks always release
on the verge of opex. They chum the water for shorts and then generate a squeeze
that has easily resulted in 15-35% going into opex.
Just look at the huge move today as the pavlovian dogs start to salivate at what the
spin shysters have prepared !!!
November 10th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Palladin, Please explain what are AAII bull/bear ratio and where I can find them and also please where is the source of put call spreads and how I sould interpret it.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
;1101 and make all bears stop out then this market
Thats not 100% entirely true. Smart money moves markets not dumbasses. I don;t think any smart money is being stopped out. All smart money is long.
The bears who were stopped out at 1101 are dumbasses.
heading out early today. a little worried about the ERY position that I opened yesterday @ 11.10 but I guess I’ll hold it overnight. best of luck in the last hour!
Welp. Looks like Idan’s megaphone is key at this point. We are basing, pushing higher, basing, pushing higher. Tomorrow I suspect we will creep higher? Low volume usually lends itself to that.
Looks like one more flat to slightly up day tomorrow due to the holiday. I look to take a position late tomorrow im just not sure what that will be.My gut is telling me short seeing we are at that 110.00 key level on the SPY…
November 10th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Holiday rallies have become the norm, 300-500 point rallies when no one is watching
on xmas eve, thanksgiving, etc.
market sitting in between the channel…
the top of the channel is now above 1101 previous high.
bottom of the channel is now above the 1086-1087 fibs. could just break out into new highs…
gotta love it.
Big rally as wall street celebrates bear stearns hedge fund managers being found innocent
of fraud and wrongdoing. . . .
Wow, without fraud there would be no wall street, could see another 500 points in sigh of
relief rally. This gives a green light to biz as usual on fraud front.
ralph cioffi wins! go the bulls….be long or be wrong!!!
Looking at picking up some PLD if it can break resistance in the low 13’s. Thoughts anyone?
Back in the green on my UCO trade. Didn’t expect the strong downdraft earlier, but tried to show some courage in the face of adversity. Thoughts on where we go from here? Anjali, Morris or Anitang?
November 10th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Still looks like consolidation for a push higher … 14 is strong resistance …
November 10th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Agreed! Thanks Anj.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I agreed $14 is strong resistance. No clue where it will be headed; I hate it when my profits turn into a loss. I sold all of my UCO shares @13.91 before headed out to pick up my kids. Sorry didn’t post it real time.
Would definitely buy back UCO @13.25 or better for longer term play. I was just wondering which one is better, USO or UCO. Any thoughts?
November 10th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
can you share your decision making process (besides an article that had no substance)? appreciate the read, but you purchased at the high of the wedge. markets look to go up, yet there is some uncertainty on UCO. trying to learn–your thoughts?
November 10th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Cottonman, I’m not sure where we go from here. I can tell you that I felt good about my UCO exit yesterday @ 14.20 (and I was hoping that you would follow). I did not flip back into UCO after my SCO exit today because I think it could really go either way tomorrow. I hope it works out for you!
remember i told people not to short amzn. here’s the updated chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooamzn-4?context=user
November 10th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Woo,
I have a question on tax that I wanted to ask you. I know you trade most of the time with SPY options. Is there anything like a wash rule with it. Can you sell and buy SPY calls/puts with different strike prices? Does it imply the wash rule is triggered?
I made some big losses today on my SPY puts, but I want to buy some calls with a different strike price next week.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
If you trade often enough, you can elect for mark to market accounting rules. Here’s some info on it: http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc429.html
November 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Oh for mark to market accounting, you don’t have to worry about wash rules.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
http://www.fairmark.com/capgain/wash/wsoption.htm
i actually leave most of taxes to my accountant. i really should look more into how all my trading affects costs, but i just pay what my accountant tells me to pay. i’m sure there are a few people on here who should be able to answer this question.
amzn there was a flare to the south. we hit resistance here, so it could drop a little bit.
i took an erx position at closing. also took an aapl call position.
all are relatively small positions.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Hi Woo,
What price did the flare stretch down to? With open interest on AAPL 195/200/210 calls I’m think AAPL is due to drop here.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
flare stretched to 205. so not a big flare. there is a possibility of a drop to a trend line. there’s fibs of 197 and 201 below this, and i really doubt we break below 197 because of the strong trend line there as well.
205 was a fib projection also.
right now i see aapl heading to 217 before any major drops. however, there are major trend lines above here one around 208-209 at the moment, and the ohter sitting around 215ish, which will need to break if 217 wants to happen sooner than into december.
i’ll post a chart later today with aapl and amzn and a few others.
November 10th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Thanks Woo, on AMZN how far south did the flare go?
November 10th, 2009 at 5:20 pm
below 127.
today amzn went above a 68% fib projection just slightly, to hit the long term trend line north of here.
i still think this is 141 bound, but a break of this current trend line in the 131 area would mean 4 MAJOR trend lines breaking in the span of less than a month. it’s possible, but 2 of the trend lines have been around for over 2 years, the other 2 have been around for over a year. ridiculous action.
I am selling TNA 500 shares bought at 37.86 and selling around 40.60’s. I am thinking we will pull back to retest the 10120 area in the next two days. I might buy back friday. You could take a short here into tomorrow.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Nice, congrats!!!
Think it’s wise to take some time off, getting cocky after big wins is always at
issue, better to lay low than run a/c low.
This is the 8th update on a monster dow move, such exagerations are usually
followed by large sell offs or crashes.
Selling my sso & tna on close, buying some faz and tza.
Just saw this buy order completed on my TOS time and sales report for GOOG. Naked shorters beware.
16:00:00 566.76 49,168
November 10th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
While someone thinks AMZN could have topped or will hang around this area for a while(sold)
16:00:02 130.15 374,494
November 10th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
That might be the closing print at 4:00:00 since it’s a nasdaq stock..
bought some more sco at eod.
——– SAT ON MY HANDS ALL DAY —– until the last hour. bought some SRS at the double bottom. paid 9.219 …….. holding overnight. maybe i just like pain?
Idan,
Not only finance lagging. Russell 2000 is also lagging. Dow is moving new higher, and RUT is only half way of the last top. The strange things is that DOW looks like uptrend with higher lows from 9112, 9331, 9430, and 9678. But Russell (IWM), after double top formation, starts to move downtrend. Since its lows as 54.68, 55.37, 57.53, and go down 55.33 on Nov 2.
It seems institutions start moving money from small caps to large caps?
How do we understand this type of divergence ?
In addition, from Nov 2, five day market went up, but volume keeps reducing. Is this sign of the trend reversal or we still believe market follow megaphone support and resist and then drop like hell.
Palladin or anyone who knows the answer to my question, Please explain what are AAII bull/bear ratio and where I can find them and interpret them and also where is the source of put call spreads and how I sould interpret it.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
You could go to the Am Assoc of indiv invests to get their sentiment indexes and the put call ratio is via ChiBoTrade.
The idea is to only pay attention to the extremes and invest as a contrarian from
short or long side/ Gold is hugely over owned and bought, at extremes in sentiment,
but the dollar is causative so that gets ignored.
I am way lazy to do all that homework so i sub to a market timer and stock picker
that does most of it for me. A small group of us splits Bespoke and a few others,
will not/can not mention names till i find out if adan gives out ip’s or i may be booted
and lose cost of sub.
And no, that pos marketwatch site is not worth reading or following unless you
really want to ring up losses.
FWIW Bespoke was one of the first to call the March bottom and project a 1929
rally type up of 60% besp is also one of the cheapest sites.
hi mr woo..
can you shed some light on the xlf and bac…got some puts..should i hold or exit them..
also if you get a chance, idan was talking bout LVS..its at the top of the channel now, so back down?/
can you confirm..thanks.
Ewavers did it again. Moved all their 3s, 4s and 5s to the right, and called another top with no shame re past FAILs. Do you dare to complain? Try it and see what happens. You either get deleted or you’re told the site is free and the author owes you nothing. Wow. So my daughter gave a piano recital last week. If she missed a bunch of notes and flubbed the piece should I turn to all the people wincing in the audience and say: “Hey, what do expect! She’s doing this for free!” I just love the attitude on these sites. Un-frickin-believeable.
November 10th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
If your daughter sucked that bad I just wouldn’t go to her recital rather then complain about it.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
I got banned long time agO.
Go figure.