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10
Nov
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2:50pm
Here’s a JPM 60 minute. Take a look at how we have a very nice inverse H&S formation.. but that’s still a very lagging formation after the market has rallied 6%. Also a break of the green channel would mean more downside for this stock. A break of the neckline (blue) would mean more upside:
2:47pm
Even though the market has rallied substantially pretty close to a double top, the financials are not even half way there… not only that but if you look at some individual names like JPM, they haven’t even completed forming an inverse H&S like most stocks have… The financials might be a drag on the S&P as we move forward unless we get some good news from them soon.
4:21am
Yesterday we blew through the 108.20 level like there was no resistance there. For those who wanted to know.. former wedge ascending support was there, and so i thought we would see some resistance. But, i always recommend to step out and either play small, or don’t play any positions before 10 am because of volatility in the market.
The market breaking higher yesterday was a sign of strength but also a sign that the wedge is no longer as important but that the megaphone (widening triangle) is the more pormenant formation. Both formations tend to be bearish, but for now we have more upside to the double top area… and eventually maybe the 50% retrace at 1120-1124.
Spy Daily:
they’re both sitting in the middle of channels. xlf has a bit of resistance around $15 that it needs to break. xlf could go either way with where it’s currently standing.
200 FAS @ 78.00 in the AH
“Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas. Individual creativity, uniqueness, and independent thinking are lost in the pursuit of group cohesiveness, as are the advantages of reasonable balance in choice and thought that might normally be obtained by making decisions as a group.”
I think boards such as stocktock or Kenny’s EW board are victims of this. Need to promote argumentative debate without criticizing ones methods or conclusions, or attacking their integrity.
Granted stocktock was a “Bear” board for many months, it just never rounded the corner.
Now that I’ve posted this, commence with the selloff.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Excellent point Chacro my friend.
Just to remind people where I’m coming from, most of my methodology is pretty basic and simple, and would probably be shot full of holes by anybody with experience, so I choose not to share it. I will never criticize anybody on this board, unless I see somebody trying to rub somebody’s nose in the mud who made some bad calls, just to make fun of them and make them feel even worse.
I always share my positions and my purchases. When I joined this board I mentioned I did pretty well catching the rally from June until mid September or so. Then I sat out for a little while. Then returned with a position of 50% short 25% long and 25% cash. Then 15 days ago I switched to 100% short, which looked good for a while but has now left me about 5% in the red since making that change in positions. My stops are set for another 5% down, which I mentioned I highly doubt will happen. My prediction, a serious correction very shortly, and well before I get stopped out. If I’m wrong, the perma bulls won’t need to rub it in my face, as I’ll already be in enough pain if that happens.
November 10th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
i can see that corrections happening maybe after a spike up, i dont know if that spike has happend yet or will it be the 1120 or a little higher on the spy to scare the shorts to get them to cover if there are that many shorts left, then a big down move, i could see it happening after opex nov. or after dec. opex
November 10th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
There will be no selloff greater than 10% as long as you people on CNBC keep on speculating about it.
Gosh, I wanted to shut the T,V screen at work today. Those CNBC anchors kept on saying suckers rally, suckers rally. Suckers rally you say? I just returned 50% on a 210k portfolio in 5 trading days..
November 10th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
ZEE, congrats if that’s the case. Good for you.
the kiddie style of trading that buys all opening dips and holds for rallies 2
days later is a dangerous format that works until it don’t.
We are already seeing that in massive runups prior to earn releases and sells
the next morn.
Any bull run or bear trap market that does not correct by 10% or more every
few months is setting up for a huge downside move of 30% or more, that is why seasoned traders so fear parabolic rallies.
Don’t know how long u been trading or how bullish you are, just a word of
wisdom from a guy that traded currencies for CIBC and bonds at BMO.. . .
Bear rallies do not correct till it is too late and takes you straight to the gates of hell. Bear rallies look, feel and smell better than the real thing THAT
IS WHY THEY are to be traded with fear.
Regards, good luck, don’t take this the wrong way but if your figures are
for real, you are nuts and assuming way much risk unless its in Monopoly
Money.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Excellent points Palladin, and its a comfort to hear them here on this board.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
well said PAL…..couldnt of said it better myself. there are some proud whiz kids on this board that are going to be humbled very soon. there is alot of strange activity going on in the market…….that is going to lead all of this complacency to a sad ending.
glta
November 10th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
FAKE ZEE: Piss off. There is a well-established poster here – zee – so get a different handle or move along.
You may have valid points and opinions, but unless it is a total co-inky-dink that you chose ZEE without ever reading this board you are a chump with zero cred, and will have zero cred.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
he might have just had on the cap locks
November 10th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
I have seen zee posts claiming he was a prop trader doing billion
dollar spins. Posts are consist and bridge bragging with insane
risk assumption.
I have told them/him that if his posts are accurate, i will be having
lunch with the pope and obamama after teaching Clapton some of
my best guitar rips.
Trader kiddies. Be skeptical, it pays.
BTW i am looking for a proggie that will allow log ins to this and other
sites and vouches for voracity.
To all those wishing me well, tell me, please tell me your not all bearish and losing your asses with short side sweeps in a trending market, i need to hear that !!! Please be honest maybe we can form some
kind of trading coach system.
“Need to promote argumentative debate without criticizing ones methods…”
As Captain Willard said to Colonel Kurtz, “I don’t see any method…sir.” I tend to agree with Russ Winter last week on Radio Free Wall Street. There’s no such thing as investing anymore. The market is basically run by a bunch of young 20-something punks (both pro and retail) trading on their laptops. This is why you see such strange behavior and volatility.
http://radiofreewallstreet.fm/
November 10th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
There is such thing as investing. It’s just different than in 1990 when stocks kept on going up. You need to be smart when trading and take risk..
Also, no real trader trades on a laptop. It’s impossible. If I’m long 5,000 shares in 8 different stocks, I need a mouse and a keyboard to react to market movements.
The market is run by those who can move the markets.. those who trade and are 20-something can’t move the markets. Even with the intraday buying power I have, it’s impossible to manipulate anything. You need tens of millions of dollars.
The reason you see such strange behaviour is because of algorithms, market manipulation and dark pool trading…
November 10th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
no zee. i have the power to move the markets. i didn’t want to admit it, but it looks like the truth is coming out. *sigh* with great power, comes great responsibility.
sounds like everyone is depressed or frustrated all of the sudden.
buy and hold strategies also known as investing, is great for 15-20 year cycles. good luck to any of those trying to buy and hold hoping we’ll reach 1500+ on the spy in the next 5 years.
stocktock exists because there are people who want to make shorter term trades, not investments. long gone are the days when we think of stock as part ownership of a company, and options as contracts bought to purchase large shares of a company at a specific price.
we try our best to notice patterns whether it’s through trend lines, fibs/EW, and other TA so that we can ride on the curtails of the market as it moves. nobody here will ever claim to know the secret of the market or give 100% perfect advice. anybody who is attempting to make money on the stock market should have the stomach to lose money in the stock market. banks are giving 3% return a YEAR. higher risk/reward. live with it, deal with the consequences, whether good or bad. get better everyday and never blame anybody else but yourself for any trades that you make.
from there, give your opinion and your analysis, bounce ideas, fight, disagree, but everyone here is trying to make money and get better at doing it. nobody is here as an enemy, nobody is trying to take money away from you (there are tons of other people to buy and sell from as it is).
Idan and I will never delete a good post, we leave tons of posts that disagree with our own assessments. even we have slight disagreements in trading or strategy.
i could care less whether 20 somethings are moving the market, or other market manipulators, or if the whole thing is moving by CHANCE. i am going to try my best to make money each step of the way. i actually have a ton of theories, but frankly have no idea haha.
and i don’t think this as much of a recent thing. there is tons of volatility if you look at charts from 30-50+ years back. it’s all cyclical. there will always be bubbles. people are greedy, they will overinflate, they will do whatever they can to drive up numbers, to leverage and take more money. and markets will crash again and again for years to come. so the sooner we accept what we’ve known regularly in economics for the last 100+ years, the sooner we make money on both up and down markets. go team!
November 10th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Awesome Dr Woo
November 10th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
oh yeah, and congrats on the awesome return on your portfolio zee =P that is some gooood stuff.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:48 pm
thanks..
” never blame anybody else but yourself for any trades that you make”.
Very very true indeed!
November 10th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Surprised to hear that even with your massive buying power you can only
defray markets for a while?
zee, r u a 14 year old borrowing his mom’s laptop while she is banging the
milkman?
November 10th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
im 15 thank you very much, and how old are you.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
Pallandin. This is out of line dude! Next time you are pissed go to the woods and take out your frustration on a pack of wolves you sick b***.
Keep it civil pal
November 11th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Im in my 60’s. Used to trade bonds and currencies for major chart banks in canada. did ok, understand dynamics and trrading.
As for JON go call your own wolves, i’m not out of line, i am calling a kiddie trader wannbe for what he is full of.]
He trades 200K for his onw a/c one day with returns of 6000% and is
working a london prop desk the next.
ZEe/Jon. . . if you wanna be good liars, find worse fools than what are
here.
November 11th, 2009 at 1:10 am
You time is UP ole man! bond and currency trader my A***. Liars my foot you jack…take it like a man dude. The 19yr old beat you to it..accept it and move on.
Woo – when you look at charts for tonight could you also look at BAC ….
Thanks in advance
November 10th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
P.S I am holding Dec calls …
November 10th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
Banks are done. round 3 in the foreclosure model is about to emerge and they
have a rocky road ahead.
Consider gold, oil IOC or donuts THI
November 10th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
Anjali,
BAC looks interesting now. Closed above 16 which I think is bullish.
Going in heavy long on JPM on the next dip….maybe sooner
November 10th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
Careful, the next dip might be the last. LOL.
Buy the morning dip and rally the markets is getting tired, when the prop traders
can’t churn out cash they will change the pattern, 2morrow might be the next
or last.
Banks are done for the short term, new groups will assume leadership, try them,
try going long RIM as they rediscover that dog.
Hint. Go look at the heavy shorted to cover ratio lists. Get something sound with a
heavy short sell side bet and go long some calls. Remember PCLN ?
Consider IOC after doing your research and reading my posts on same.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Crazy talk.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:26 pm
This guy is going nuts man! Whats up with you dude! sick of life already!
Just went thru the day’s posts and a few of you sound downright loco.
That’s L-O-C-O.
Zee was 19 a week ago and now appears to have lost a few years? C’mon. 15? His story I guess.
And so far as all this risk going long early in the day? And being called a 20 year old novice for liking the early open scalp play using a 3X long ETF? Sounds like some of you don’t have the bullahs to jump in and sink your teeth into a trade so you toss names around. Yeah I know the Big Boys may change the tune beginning tomorrow AM. If they do fine by me. I’ll change my game plan too.
Let’s try backing off the B chewing on the board. Frustrating day or nt keep it civil crew.
Cheerios. Val
November 10th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Great post Val … I agree …
There are people posting here with great trades / results – let’s respect that vs talking about how old they are etc etc…
This board is all about posting trades / setups that we see – lets focus on that ….
BTW LVS looks interesting if it can bust out of that channel – being cautios being long here … but looks like a great setu – thoughts welcome …
November 10th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
hm…unless you see some great news…why would LVS bust out..its been in a downward channel and heading lower…it just tested the top of the channel and if the market and every other index going to head south soon, why would LVS be breaking out??
i got a small put position nothing compared to the big guns, but stil, unless there is huge news or something massive i just can’t see it going up..
but of course, i’ve been wrong more often than not.
just my 2 cents
November 10th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Just got up and poured my a bowl after reading that. Thanks for the suggestion, Val.