Comments on: Intraday Commentary ~ 11/09/2009 http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/ The Focal Point for All Traders Fri, 03 Sep 2010 10:54:23 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: 3min http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-94049 3min Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:13:34 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-94049 Confidence shattered Confidence shattered

]]> By: Cil http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93900 Cil Tue, 10 Nov 2009 09:13:11 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93900 Wow. You guys are all on fire tonight. I need to get some sleep but will be taking notes tomorrow. Thanks all, wish you all the best. MAKE BUCKS! Wow. You guys are all on fire tonight. I need to get some sleep but will be taking notes tomorrow. Thanks all, wish you all the best. MAKE BUCKS!

]]> By: JON http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93896 JON Tue, 10 Nov 2009 06:39:32 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93896 Great job Zee! Do you have any pointers to cycle theory reading materials? thanks Great job Zee! Do you have any pointers to cycle theory reading materials?

thanks

]]> By: zee http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93895 zee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:50:32 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93895 Steady gains is the best. There's 2 ways to make money. Either you go with the trend (in this case it's up, so your long stock), or you follow a technical strategy that generates buy/sell signals. With cycles, you only need 1-2 buy/sell signals a month which generates you a 2% return per trade. In total you'll be up 4% in the month If you make a 4% return on your account every month, in 12 months, you will have returned 60.10% on your capital. How hard is it to make 4% in a month? Few can do it. Imagine if you started with $15,000 today in investment capital. Say your able to earn 4% on your capital a month, and you do this for 10 years.. 10 years down the road, your net worth will be $1,659,938.41 Incredible. This is with a 4% return a month (FAZ moves this much in a day!) Steady gains is the best. There’s 2 ways to make money.
Either you go with the trend (in this case it’s up, so your long stock), or you follow a technical strategy that generates buy/sell signals.
With cycles, you only need 1-2 buy/sell signals a month which generates you a 2% return per trade. In total you’ll be up 4% in the month
If you make a 4% return on your account every month, in 12 months, you will have returned 60.10% on your capital. How hard is it to make 4% in a month? Few can do it.

Imagine if you started with $15,000 today in investment capital.
Say your able to earn 4% on your capital a month, and you do this for 10 years.. 10 years down the road, your net worth will be $1,659,938.41
Incredible. This is with a 4% return a month (FAZ moves this much in a day!)

]]> By: zee http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93894 zee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:40:40 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93894 Haha, LOL Jon!! If only the markets would help me with my communications homework for school .. Buddhabill: I will explain to you how I play these mini cycle tops/bottoms. The big cycle lows (6-weeks) are the cycles that generate the most $. The half cycles are less reliable and thus I like to close the position very fast on any sign of a +2% gain. The Nov 17th top is a very small top and it is very flexible. What traders should do is record the S&P on nov 17th, and then one can infer that the market will not go 2% higher than that in the next 5 trading days. (Probability wise it SHOULD not, however they'll always be exceptions! Do not go on margin or leverage on this trade). In those five trading days, the market is likely to be minus 5% to +2% from where it was on Nov 17th given no game-changing news comes out. If Obama declares war on a country, throw the cycle date away and use common sence. How can you play this to your advantage? Short the SPY (DO NOT GO ON LEVERAGE such as FAZ). Normally, I would close the short position on a +2% gain.. if you do this on every cycle that appears in the year, your retruns are compounded and you can make 50-150% ROI with high probability trades that contain little drawdown. (Usually you want to be long on a very strong correction going into a cycle low, and short on very strong upmoves on a cycle peak.) Haha, LOL Jon!!
If only the markets would help me with my communications homework for school ..

Buddhabill: I will explain to you how I play these mini cycle tops/bottoms. The big cycle lows (6-weeks) are the cycles that generate the most $. The half cycles are less reliable and thus I like to close the position very fast on any sign of a +2% gain.
The Nov 17th top is a very small top and it is very flexible. What traders should do is record the S&P on nov 17th, and then one can infer that the market will not go 2% higher than that in the next 5 trading days. (Probability wise it SHOULD not, however they’ll always be exceptions! Do not go on margin or leverage on this trade). In those five trading days, the market is likely to be minus 5% to +2% from where it was on Nov 17th given no game-changing news comes out. If Obama declares war on a country, throw the cycle date away and use common sence.

How can you play this to your advantage? Short the SPY (DO NOT GO ON LEVERAGE such as FAZ). Normally, I would close the short position on a +2% gain.. if you do this on every cycle that appears in the year, your retruns are compounded and you can make 50-150% ROI with high probability trades that contain little drawdown. (Usually you want to be long on a very strong correction going into a cycle low, and short on very strong upmoves on a cycle peak.)

]]> By: buddhabill http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93893 buddhabill Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:25:56 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93893 Also, how flexible is the Nov 17th top call - that is 2 days before OpEx...i guess 'top' means that it can trade sideways for a few before a pullback. Re: EW theory...times are different. The fuel for this rally is Gov't money and Fed monetary policy which operates outside EW's psychological underpinnings, IMHO. I've missed out on so much profit by not betting with the Fed. Silly of me. Plus Wall Street will rally into year's end for bonus' sake. Always does, eh Zee? Thanks. Also, how flexible is the Nov 17th top call – that is 2 days before OpEx…i guess ‘top’ means that it can trade sideways for a few before a pullback.

Re: EW theory…times are different. The fuel for this rally is Gov’t money and Fed monetary policy which operates outside EW’s psychological underpinnings, IMHO.

I’ve missed out on so much profit by not betting with the Fed. Silly of me. Plus Wall Street will rally into year’s end for bonus’ sake. Always does, eh Zee?

Thanks.

]]> By: JON http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93892 JON Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:23:08 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93892 I love it ! Grumpy old men and super ego's are now apologizing to a 19yr old kid :) what a humbling experience... I can say we have a balanced view on the blog now with equal number of bears and bulls each stating their case...awesome. One has to win. I love it ! Grumpy old men and super ego’s are now apologizing to a 19yr old kid :) what a humbling experience…

I can say we have a balanced view on the blog now with equal number of bears and bulls each stating their case…awesome. One has to win.

]]> By: zee http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93891 zee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:21:55 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93891 We're likely going to 1200 on the S&P. Keep it simple. Go long stock on corrections of 5-7%. http://social.stocktock.com/photo/very-bullish-chart-for-2009?context=latest We’re likely going to 1200 on the S&P.
Keep it simple.
Go long stock on corrections of 5-7%.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/very-bullish-chart-for-2009?context=latest

]]> By: zee http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93890 zee Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:20:47 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93890 #17 #17

]]> By: Goingtoretireoneday http://www.focalequity.com/2009/11/09/intraday-commentary-11092009/comment-page-2/#comment-93889 Goingtoretireoneday Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:20:17 +0000 http://www.stocktock.com/?p=18864#comment-93889 Thanks for the reply Chacro my friend and praise. Actually I may indeed not have more guts than you, but instead I'm might just be not as smart as you or more of a gambler or both. In any case, I respect your plan to get out tomorrow, as you will definitely live to fight another day that way. I just feel so sure we're going down, but as mentioned, I'll jump out if my portfolio goes down 4-5% more. Lets see what happens tomorrow, good luck to us both! Thanks for the reply Chacro my friend and praise. Actually I may indeed not have more guts than you, but instead I’m might just be not as smart as you or more of a gambler or both. In any case, I respect your plan to get out tomorrow, as you will definitely live to fight another day that way. I just feel so sure we’re going down, but as mentioned, I’ll jump out if my portfolio goes down 4-5% more. Lets see what happens tomorrow, good luck to us both!

]]>