I will be gone for most of the day… but i’ll be putting up a message every once in a while… As I see it now a break of 107.20 will definitely help us move much higher… I see 108.20 as very very strong resistance… that’s really one of the major potential fights between the bulls and the bears… On a break of 107.20 go long, and go short at 108.20.
Intraday Commentary ~ 11/09/2009
– November 9, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
Nice gapper it looks like they are going for, let’s see if the futures hold up. I will be focused on the close. Burden of proof is on the bears today.
Whether we like it or not, the decision of whether the market goes up is being made in Washington. This weekend, Timmy urged the G-20 to keep stimulus rolling till recovery was assured. There is no way we will get assurances that recovery is happening till mid next year. With stimulus and massive budget deficits continuing, the dollar will continue to fall and stock markets rise. I am fully invested and continue to be bullish in the short term.
Here was an interesting one on the stock markets, ‘big correction’ talk on the markets-
Receding Tide Before the Tsunami? (chart and analysis):
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=471
hello all looks like wave 2 is over if the count is right and we are in P3. i’m gonna sell TNA position from last week and load up on EDZ, FAZ, TZA with loose stops for today.
As i have been saying all along, if your bearish go gold, junk gold, mid cap gold
or GLD and GOLD or PAAS.
The only thing that will lead us higher is a weak dollar, lower on dollar implode
so gold will lead the way on all instances. Up gold with strong dollar last week
told us something, did it not?
This is where the gold weaklings go parabolic. Apollo gold, gold reserve, paramount
gold. The G20 just lit a fire under the gold bubble and this could go thru 5K before
the counting is done. This is oil in 2008 all over again.
yes indeed……wave 2 is history…..finished….finiddo…..line up your shorts at 108.20 ish
glta
For gold purch or base metals lookit http://www.kitco.com
Nice chart here on mid and micro resource stocks and ratings or recommendations:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/nov022009.html
Hey guys, SPY is trading a few pennies away from 108.20 that Idan mentioned. Short premarket? I myself am not going to add to my shorts as I have taken on enough risk.
Well , I’ll be out most the day (fiance is going in for minor surgery today) , but looks like spx is starting at the magic 1075 number pre market. If only I wasn’t stuck in UYG till tomorrow I’d exit it right here and pick up FAZ.
My Long on thedollar trades got killed overnight. Stopped out completely for hefty losses. If we get the blow off top scenario at least my UYG is action like a hedge I suppose.
why long the dollar? U.S will be the last to tighten poicy, IMO.
All those UUP buyers are going to be wrong.
Charts tell me the dollar is due for a rally.
what would a blow off top look like
Basically the SPX would regain it’s bullish channel/wedge and scream towards to top. We would see 1100 again probably as soon as tomorrow. This would coinside with the EUR breaking to new highs.
This rally is too strong. And dollar is just too weak .
1.) I agree it looks like it could push me out of this market, but we’ll have to wait until the close, I don’t expect a 20+ point up day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the close as ambiguous as possible to keep everyone guessing.
2.) Get out of my pants.
Volume will be the key to watch. Over past few days rally was on progressively decreasing volume
picked up some UCO in pre-m for 13.65
will the resistance at 108ish (top of right shoulder on daily SPY) just slow this rally down for a few minutes (small pull back then rise) or does anyone think this will roll it over?
Hard to say but if it rolls over it will be the right shoulder of H&S all over the place including in the EUR/USD.
I don’t know if flares in the premarket usually pan out, but SPY has a big one today pointing down to 104.50.
Please explain your perception little more?
You’ll have to find the links yourself but see Woo’s explanations in post #28 on the second page of 11-03-2009 and post #11 on the first page of 11-04-2009.
Okay, thanks.
Will be looking to close my ERX position @ 47.00 or higher today. Best of luck to all!
Will also consider closing the UCO that I bought on Friday @ 13.20 if it sees 14.20 today.
If you have been reading my posts you are probably doing well. As posted last week I went long on TNA 500 shares at around 37.86 on Friday and held during the weekend. I am thinking we are going to the 10400′s (at least) with a potential of 10800′s. Short term 10400′s will be reached by opex not sure what after that. But there is strong resistance at 10500′s so it is not going to be easy at that level.
Thanks for your helpful posts!
just wanted to point out that we are above the 61% retrace of the complete drop…
do people see more than just a right shoulder at 108.2 spy? last time 108.2 was resistance on the left shoulder because of a long term trend line… this time i don’t see a long term trend line there, no fib at 108.2 either…
also broke north of the long term trend line and fib on the 60 minute chart.
i’m raising stops on my spy dec 108 strike. they are up about 20% right now. if it drops here, i’ll lock in a good 10-15% depending on how i change my stops, but i don’t think this needs to drop at all….
then again the monthly is SUPER overbought. i might just limit sell and wait for the market to work it’s way back down on the 1-15 minute charts…
alright sold at a limit. made over 20% on my spy dec calls, which is more than u can ask for a 1 day hold on next month calls.
market may just keep heading higher. with the smaller charts so overbought, a correction or consolidation is going to happen sooner or later.
again i have NO idea what the 108.20 is significant for, to me, it means absolutely nothing. and the only reason i would be shorting this market after a long term trend line break and long term retrace break back to the NORTH side, is to take a small scalp for a possible trend line back test. but i almost DOUBT that the trend line will backtest. we’ve fiddled with it for so long that if this sucker is going to break out, it’s going to just keep going, with small bits of consolidation. doubt we get below 1070 again for a while.
if we do, then i’ll consider a short position, but not until then.
Woo – I have the LT trendline from Mar lows on the linear scale intersecting at the 108.25-108.4 level …. that is the reason why I see it as significant …
i think we’ve drawn that line slightly differently. i show that we’ve broken above that line at the current moment, no?
are you using a daily chart? chandlestick? curious in case i need to redraw my line hehe.
Yes – at 108.5 – we have definitely broken it … I had a confluence of resistance lines at 108.4 – 108.5 … if we confirm a 2 canlde break above 108.5 … then I don’t see any restsince till 109.65 ….
My lines are drawn on the daily … then I look at them in the 10 min
We blew right by 108.20 I think we are on our way to 109.68 that is when i will take a short position.
What was special about 108.20? I know that Idan said it was strong resistance but Woo hinted in the post above that he didn’t see anything there.
small position in sco–gap filled, storm not as bad as first thought.
USO looks like consolidation for a push higher on the 10 min … 40.37 is key … I would enter SCO on a break of that level …
I see it, bought sco sooooo oversold…placing tight stop.
BH – when you see oversold what timeframe do you look at …. assuming this is for a swing trade ?
5, 10 day, but have unlimited trades–don’t have to worry about stopping out in case am wrong, intraday.
If you are patient enough, these latest gaps will close.
i’m going back to sleep. 5 minute RSI at 85 lol. i see first area of significance at 1084.9 area or so. not sure if we’ll get there yet or not. i think this break is a significant and aggressive bull move, but i don’t think i’ll be touching the market anymore today.
good luck everyone!
I was waiting for this level on S&P to start shorting. I just took some shorts and I would be glad to see this market higher to add to my longer term shorts.
About a week back, I posted that I had bought 4K shares of SU (Suncor Inc) at 32.60. Trade is still open and the stock has reached $34.80. It’s up huge today (about 6%). My entire portfolio is being long on gold and oil stocks and doing quite well.
I hope no one followed my trades last week, LOL. I told you I would be suicidal at times like this. I may have mis-timed this one by a few days, but I am willing to give it one more day to run and see.
This action feels very bullish to me, and does not feel like P3 at all, just so everyone takes notice.
Hey Fritz,
I’m in the same boat as you and its just so hard to digest the fact that the markets still continue on moving north but i believe that since the volume is very bleak I think we should see a very strong p3 wave starting withi n the next 5 days…. way over extended
The reason I doubt this is P3 is because of the DOW. The DOW usually gives clean signals with much less fakeouts. The fact that both SPX and Nasdaq broke their uptrends was irrelevant. The DOW never broke its uptrend from March, and now it has made a new high.
The weekly MACDs on the three major index show a potential bearish crossover, but they also show a potential MACD bearish crossover failure, which will be extremely bullish that pushes the DOW to the highs prior to Lehman. They are overextended, but market can stay in overbought territory for a long time.
The daily charts show that if the market closes where it is right now, there should be a slight to medium pullback tomorrow. I wouldn’t bet on it, and I may close some of my risky positions today and let some hedged shorts run tomorrow.
good info Fritz.
thnx
I didn’t get in this AM. Still can’t make myself chase when the market opens higher and has no early trade am pullback.
sold 600 shares of ERX @ 47.00 (up 5.62% from my average of 44.50); +$1500.00
it could run from here but I am going to be out most of the morning and I want to play it safe with the 3X trades
Great trade morrris, You have been on a roll lately
Thanks man! I see now that I got out a little early but I’m happy with the result. Now I’m looking to close UCO. How high do you think it could go today?
If I had those prediction powers I wouldnt be here
It should have been up a dollar by now
Market consolidating over my 108.5 area … no clean break but looks like a bull flag on the 10min …
Bull flag playing out … next stop 109.65 ….
Nothing bearish here. Bears have 5 more hours to do something meaningful here.
Hibernate – perhaps for the day
Idan the MORON is hiding again
Of course, you hide when he’s right. Which is most of the time. Idan posts almost every day.
Absolutely agreed!
Donot feed the scumbags….
Right my ass idiot
———– I SUCK ———–
Is that a ticker on some exchange?
Bears beware, there are no negative divergences on the 15, 30, or the 60 minute charts on any of the three major index.
The DOW has already shown a bullish MACD crossover on the daily, and I suppose other index will follow. Although the volume has been light, but remember that’s how a slow short squeeze is accomplished, just like a lobster in a pot. The temperature is slowly increased, the lobster is not aware of the change and keeps swim in it. There comes a point when the temperature becomes sufficient to kill the lobster, and the lobster realizes it but it’s too late.
This doesn’t feel like P3, and if it doesn’t seem like it, it probably isn’t.
I am adding my long positions here and getting rid of my unhedged shorts.
If we close anywhere above 1080 I will be joining you.
If so, then best alternate consideration would be 1120 (A) – 850(B) – 1220 (C) of P-2 senario discussed by Wonderful Woo in Sept. I have not thrown out that one yet!!
There are other scenarios if we do rally to new highs- one is simply a fifth wave extension of 5 of C. That would suck.
Also there is a possibility that P3 only exists in DOW/Gold chart. DOW/Gold still in a slight downtrend, but gold keeps making new highs; therefore, the DOW needs to make new highs just to keep the ratio consistent.
with all those put options on the spy if the market was to go down to 850 wouldn’t it be hard to recover back to 1200
Why would it be hard? The market usually tries to pull away from most concentrated options area. If there is a glut of puts at 60 – 85 strikes and not a whole lot above 110 strike on the SPY, chances are SPY closes above 110 to make those 60 – 85 strike puts completely worthless on expiration.
correct me if i am wrong but come opex put options will be negative for the market if they close in the money, so if we were to close below 880 on the spy those options would be exercised and push the market lower.
But the price has to get there first. Do you see any evidence the price is headed in that direction? I’d like to be bearish, but I still cannot find any evidence that supports such a scenario except the negative divergence on the weekly charts. Hwoever, with the bullish MACD charts on the three index, I can even see the negative divergence broken on the weekly or even the monthly.
Where prices close on opex is not relevant to where the prices go after opex, either.
tnx.
Your suppose to boil the water before you drop the lobster, unless you’re a sadist
GEE i wonder why the market failed to close on its highs on FRIDAY …. simple. if it did , maybe more of us swing traders would be on the right side and the market would not like that …. they keep making bearish set-ups and hammering and hammering them. nice.
This appears to be a shorts covering rally.
why? any reasons?
Look at volume.
But read my post at #27 on low volume squeeze.
I thought last week market actions was a bear trap. Volume is decreasing while the market is pushing higher. You think there are so many retail investors to buy stocks at this current level?
Back in the office for just a second; will look to close my UCO position at 14.20 or higher today (in case anyone followed my entry on Friday).
Nice trade Morris
I missed out the UCO trade again.
I took the trade and I’m still holding! Thanks Morris!
Nice
Good luck!
Does today’s move favourable to accomplish right shoulder of anticipated H&S ? Would a further higher move kill it??
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/new-sp500-highs-forecast-by-fifth-sprung-bear-trap/
Thanks for sharing this link.
Stumbled on it this AM. The chart is looking green.
———- SHORTS COVERING RALLY ———– whatever. shorts cover , buyers buy, money flows into and out of the market. the same people who short go long and who knows who is doing what when.
im short RUS.TO and LONG OIL
got out of BGZ and SRS and SPY puts .. took my licks.
IM GONE FOR THE DAY.
I’ve seen this kind of intraday charts before. There may be a slight dip during 12 pm to 2:30 pm, and then a straight up rally towards EOD. A close above 1087.1 I will be out of ALL of my short positions except extremely overbought stock(s).
What will you be buying on the long side Fritz?
Just SPY calls I guess. Try to stay in cash and not over-exposing myself to risks.
what are you doing with axp
Insanity, holding it. LOL. It has met my criteria for a 10% down move soon. It’s hard to get the price, but if it has hard time breaking $39.30 I will short more.
those are november puts right?
I assume this question is for me? Yes, those are November puts. I’m looking to add short position on AXP at 39 strike, but breakeven on 37 and 36 strike, take minor loss on 34 and 35 strike. The 39 strike puts I plan to buy will be December puts.
If it goes above 1087, I believe that will be a break above the multi-month bear trend line that held back when the SP500 was back around 1101. It is already closer than last time though.
Yup. That’s my big daddy trendline. The bears need to defend this or I am going to hold my nose and go long over the next few weeks.
For those who need a bit of mid-day humor…CNBS is about to cover something about the GS CEO ‘doing God’s work’. Ought to be good for a grin/sneer.
there’s a fib projection in this area towards 1122 on the 5 minute. this would allow for the 1118 on the 60 minute chart as well.
i would like to see a move south here down to 1080 or 1075, for a good spot to get in, but it doesn’t need to drop. it could go to 1092 first. if it hits 1092, i’ll consider a short term put position.
i’m even considering a put position now, but it’s 6-7 points up or down, which is a pretty risky short term play…
Wow, last time I saw this little volume was at a mime convention.
sold 1000 shares of UCO @ 14.20 (up 7.58% from my entry @ 13.20 on Friday); +$1000.00
I’m now 14 for 15 on UCO/SCO trades since early August.
Are you still comfortable holding QID here? Or do you see this rally extending?
That is a good question. I think the market will experience a decent move downward at some point but I am no good at timing such things. I do not need the QID funds for anything right now so I am content to let the position ride indefinitely until it becomes profitable (or unbearable to hold) while swing trading for profits in the meantime.
The only other position that I have right now is DZZ (I entered @ 15.00 last week with 500 shares so it is a small position). I’ll wait and see how things develop today before entering into more swing trades.
Best of luck to you!
Thanks Morris. I appreciate all of your posts. I remember a time when you were growing weary of the excessive bearishness here, but I’m glad you stuck around to share your insight. Good luck to you, too!
Morris do you still have a DZZ position? If so, what is your sell plan?
I just have the 500 shares that I bought @ 15.00 last week. I’m down about 100 bucks on it right now; no biggie. I don’t need the funds for anything else right now so I’ll let it ride for a bit. I may add another 500 shares if it dips as low as 14.00. I hope you and yours are happy and well!
Thanks Morris, best to your as well, and I always appreciate your posts.
find it interesting that AMZN is underperforming compared to the rest of the market
most exciting tick of the day. looks like its going to break out. Maybe capitulation top but I’m guessing a break out.
I am closing all of my unhedged short positions, loss or not.
It’s getting to a point where I cannot trade this market anymore. Zero participation on updays, and zero participation on down days…
The whole vix extension was only to draw in short money to fuel next move hi.
As i said, if your a bear, play gold long. Don’t feed the traders at goldie, you
know that tomorrow will be a down 250 day to set up further rally and miracle
reversal. Problem is bears have a better memory than bulls if a lower a/c.
Sickens me to think that i have contri’d to goldies 100MM /day god’s plan.
Hey Cottonman, are you still holding your UCO?
I am still holding …
What are you looking to see short term?
Yes, still holding at the moment. Got busy and missed an op to sell at HOD!
Morris, I think your exit point was the HOD. I’m looking for a small bounce to the $14.15 range to exit.
I got out @ 14.20 and the high of the day (so far) was 14.28. I’m in SCO now so we are on opposite sides of the trade now. Best of luck!
Meant to say near the HOD. I’ll be selling and joining you in SCO soon. Don’t like betting against you!
Well, I’m not super confident in my SCO entry right now. We’ll see what the final hour brings.
current 1 month chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-31?context=user
Woo – based on your chart if we get to 1085 – it should be a good buying opp ?
depends on which calls (nov/dec) and which strike.
i wouldn’t be surprised if we dipped to the bottom of the channel. EOD that’s around 1080. if we hit 1092 at EOD, i will grab a very small put position into tomorrow, hoping that we drop to that channel bottom.
it would still be risky, because we could rise above 1092 and consolidate there and just keep popping into new highs, so it would be december close strike puts.
if 1085 hits, i may consider a very small december call position, but until the bottom of the channel rises a bit more, there’s still a 5 point drop to the south from 1085 that is very possible. so it’s not the optimal entry point.
1000 SCO @ 12.70 (not a high confidence entry)
will consider adding more @ 12.50 or lower
2:00 folks. If the bears don’t show up its bad news.
There broke and dead. Bears and shorts don’t send markets lower, its commercial
liquidation unless its seen at open.
Don’t listen to a word i say, own the only golds on toronto that are down today and
John Paulson must be cursing my name for buying stuff he did, LOL.
Next key level looks to be 109.68 lets see if we can get there..If we do i will go short at that point.
buying shorts
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p85981072778&a=178843475
Seasonal influ sez no shorts needed for santa and thinxgiving rallies that will
accom new dollar downfalls.
Bears should look at gold or leave all assets to goldman in wills instead of markets.
I think we still have one strong downtrend before opex to suck in bearish sentiment
and sell off worthless puts and create further upside squeeze.
FWIW the small 5% correction (which is nothing to be bearish about, btw) generated
vix upside of 55% and a monster put/call ratio which put the seal of doom on the
bears.
Think gold not short. How many traps have to bilk you before understanding?
i’m going to take a small short/put position at 1092, but i’m getting out the next day, and grabbing calls.
i don’t understand those who want to short this market right now, other than for that small scalp to 1085 or 1080.
there’s a chance we could drop to 1074-1075 though. that would be the first retrace of one of the rises, but when the market moves like it’s moving, it doesn’t need to retrace at all, not until the major wave is finished.
also, a smaller retrace of that wave that i mentioned already retraced, so it doesn’t NEED to go to 1074-1075.
i’m going to wait for 1092 to slightly break because the 60 minute has a very high 1092 number, which needs to hold a bit before creating resistance.
Small Caps moving big time, went long a few days ago, will sell today. 6 percent gain. Not bad for 4 days.
Not me. I’ll close ALL short positions tomorrow and grabbing calls I can get my hands on. The Grand Bear Market trendline is about to be busted, what does that signify?
why not today
i believe you are correct. unless there is a BIG reversal on the daily, up, up, up.
Even if there is a big rev on the daily its just setting up a trap to the upside,
today’s rally and last weeks amazing uptrend is courtesy of that 55% increase
in vix and goldman selling all the puts it could margin.
It will be done again, it always is on the tues before opex.
BTW, no bullish bear posts, no quotes of Atzteck calendar predicting doom,
and all that talk of retail investors reading weekend papers and screaming
sell at broker may have been wrong?
Do they actually still publish papers or is it just me that don’t see them ne more?
agreed, just looking for a place to get out of my shorts.
Here is your 1092 but will it close here or higher thats the $$$$$$$$$$$$$ question.
probably close around here, or maybe even slightly higher.
60 minute says 1092.9
5 minute says 1092.3, but has a trend line above the 1092.3
this would mean, a break north of 1092.3 to hit the trend line. for 1092.9 to be solid on the 60 minute, we need slight consolidation around 1092 area before anything else happens.
that trend line has been holding for a while with only breaks above and below the channel for fib hits.
i’ll wait a bit when 1092 hits before grabbing a small december put position. i rarely like playing puts when the bias is bull, but today i will play it. if i’m wrong, with the overbought indicators, i’ll lose a little bit of money. if i’m write the payoff is much greater.
Wow what a rally