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09
Nov
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I will be gone for most of the day… but i’ll be putting up a message every once in a while… As I see it now a break of 107.20 will definitely help us move much higher… I see 108.20 as very very strong resistance… that’s really one of the major potential fights between the bulls and the bears… On a break of 107.20 go long, and go short at 108.20.
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New Video: One year later, reality sets in for the S&P500
New Video: We are back in the gold market.
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New Video: Don't be surprised when one euro equals one dollar!
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New Video: Crude oil breaks $70 a barrel, and we are short...
New Video: Where to place your stops in gold
New Video: How to take money and emotion out of the gold market.
New Video: The S&P 500 went south and we cashed in our chips:
New Video: Pulled the trigger on the Dow
New Vidwo: Is the DOW getting ready to crater again?
Buying AEM.TO DEC $64 calls target of $67, also available on NYSE.
Do people ever take profits anymore?
This bleeping market only goes up……………………..
[Clean up your language or go back to Yahoo. Some of our members have little kids on their laps while trading stocks. -- Moderator]
November 9th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
That’s how the bulls felt in February-March, only the opposite direction.
One scenario which is very likely, and very hated by all the bears, is SPX 1170.
I was a little early on loading shorts, but I am not worry about it. I will be adding to my shorts at S&P 1105. I gues what big boys are going to do is to push this market above the previous high by a few point and at that point most people will be stopped out of thier shorts then market will tank, so my plan is to add another 20% at 1105 with no stop loss.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-32?context=user
is it a possibility the u.s. defaults on it’s debt and the big players are positioning themselves for it.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Its also possible i get a nite with Pam Anderson and she fails to satis me because
she keeps getting up and checking her hair and nails.
Besides, if usa was to default on debt the market would be up 400 on contrarian
buy signals.
Holy Sh*t. . . . take a look at the 3-4 month charts to see the exact same decline after
opex, low set on 1st-4th day of month and mega extension of rally starting on first day of
2nd week of trading !!!!!
BTW it looks like todays move will give us way better rally extension than what was seen
in past 3 months.
No one explained what a gartley pattern was, anyone got an idea why they always go wrong
to the upside?
P2 is not over YET??? New high is coming …….
Since the rally began early last week, overall volume on the NYSE has
contracted steadily, culminating with Friday’s reading of just over one
billion shares, which represents the lowest reading in nearly a month.
So, as prices climbed steadily higher last week, investors have been
increasingly unwilling to commit new capital. Unless this changes in a
significant way going forward, the probabilities that the major averages
break above their September/October peaks remains fairly low.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
I think we’ll test 1100 again if it stalls there is a chance for a double top pattern.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Yeah, except many of the classic reversal signals have not worked since March. I wouldn’t be shorting at this point!
November 9th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Agreed, I would reassess shorting at or above 1100. With no economic numbers
until Thursday I think we’ll drift to that level on low volume with a few boring days.
picked up 1000 ERY @ 11.10 (not a high confidence trade)
Market is going to SPY 1244, Dow 11K+, Dollar to 60’s, Gold to 1300+, Oil $90+, then we get P3, can’t wait to hear where Idan intends to short this market next…but if it is anytime before the above targets are met – do not do it!
November 9th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
it can’t go to 1244 right away…that would be illegal.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
(not saying it is going to 1244)
i say we’re near the top give or take a 20-30 pts, and P3 is about to begin within a few weeks.
i think that if 1130 or 1140 area hits, then my counts get completely disrupted.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
So there’s still P3?
I must have capitulated
I got rid of my JPM short and now riding my JPM calls that I picked up as hedge. Looking good. I am about to pick up AXP Nov 39 puts, this after it’s run up 12%+ in the past couple of weeks. I must have lost my sanity…
November 9th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
Yeah, if we close around here, it will be back to the drawing board for Daneric, I believe.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
how did you come up with those numbers
November 9th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
magic…
or
EW – I have a 5 wave count. the 5 of 5 can’t extend further than the 1.6x of wave 1. that is around 1130-1140 area. i forget the exact number. too lazy to check right now.
the minimum length of wave 5 of 5 has already been met though.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
woo,
If P3 starts then how low would be the max it could go low? I recall you said a few weeks ago that we might go to 800 and then really to 1200, So would you forecast that P3 end at 800 and the P4 start from 800 to 1200, if that is going to be the cast then would see P5 to start at 1200 to the downside? Where were the P1 and P2, and what was the EW count before P1?
November 9th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
i had an updated blog on 10/23 that shows a better count for P1, P2 and P3. if you read the comments, there are some really good questions, an explanation of how i got these counts:
http://api.ning.com/files/Vm-MxveM1Kq4GYClu7WBNvlkdmjV13G6CkMiXwtIe94BrYSzESJpRnBRIKpsAqi-NrgTn6VE0XDZ6GW6*r8H01txDhIB3xQ8/wooEW2year.png
that’s a picture of what P1, P2 and P3 look like.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I was wondering if you gave a correct link, beacuse the link doesn’t work for me.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
It’s not working for me either, do you mind reposting it please and thank you.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
It works fine – just try copy & paste the whole URL – as clicking does not work for sure.
November 9th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
I AGREE!!!!
and with that in mind it’s easy to make money in this market…
I’ve said it b4, I’ll say it again…
DO NOT SHORT THIS MONSTER and buy on the dips.
seriously.
Market is up 200 on DOW and up huge on Nasdaq and S$P but AMZN is flat. or slightly down…. What gives? TIA
November 9th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/wooamzn-3?context=user
amzn hit long term megaphone trend line resistance. not so easy to get north of that sucker.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
thank you master Woo
current update of my 1 month chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-33?context=user
maybe i drew my lines too roughly and i was off by .7 pts lol. then the short term top will be in, and we could see anywhere from 1085, 1080, or 1074. oh well. if it goes higher i’ll buy puts, if it dips, i’ll wait for a better call position.
I got my balls chopped off today. Setting trailing stops after the close as my system will undoubtedly fire a buy signal. My bear bias must switch to a bull bias. This is almost identical to what happened to me in july. Lots of whipsaw.
Still a possibility that we go back down to the “neckline” but its no longer worth the risk. The only thing that will save me from taking my losses are a major down day tomorrow right out of the gate, with few pullbacks upward. (Kinda like today but opposite). Not expecting it, maybe it will happen.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
We get a ratio of 10 dow up 200 point days for every decline day of 200 or more
points since April -09
Look at them rally this into the close, tells you what its about. Sell side imbalances
all around and rally holds strong for a plus 300 close?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Hey Chacro, I’m right here with you. I’ve been 100% short for 2 weeks exactly now, saw profit, left it all on the table and now its all gone and I’m slightly in the red. However as a position player mostly, I’ve decided to stay 100% short. I’ll need to see another 4-5% rally to get out and take my losses. I don’t think that will happen. However everybody has a different style, and maximum pain threshold, so if you bail tomorrow its understandable. I for one do think we have a huge down day tomorrow, but I am of course quite bias.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
I like to think of myself as a position trader as well, I was lucky to take profits and got out in the 1030s, but then I re-entered most of the position in the 1060s. My profits were essentially erased and then some.
You have more guts then me, I intend to take most of it off the table tomorrow, regardless of how it plays out. The only thing that will keep me in my position is immense weakness in the markets, with strength in both the dollar and VIX.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:20 am
Thanks for the reply Chacro my friend and praise. Actually I may indeed not have more guts than you, but instead I’m might just be not as smart as you or more of a gambler or both. In any case, I respect your plan to get out tomorrow, as you will definitely live to fight another day that way. I just feel so sure we’re going down, but as mentioned, I’ll jump out if my portfolio goes down 4-5% more. Lets see what happens tomorrow, good luck to us both!
word of caution, this could just take off hahaha. i think 1093 is the top side to look for, and then if it breaks it could go to 1097.
i’ll take that slightly risk. i’m going to dip in puts soon for december. very small position. hoping for a short scalp into tomorrow.
November 9th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Careful woo, market rallying on news buffett needs to sell stock to complete buy
of railway venture. Sells out on KO and still rallies?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
yeah totally agree. just following the potential in the chart. it went from bottom of channel to the top. i’m hoping for a dip right here, like i said, if it rises, then i’ll get out for a small loss. if it falls to a fib retrace or the bottom of the channel, i’ll make a lot more. i still have a bull bias, but with overbought indicators going crazy and a potential short term top, i’ll take the risk.
just bought in a really small SPY put 108 strike @2.58 good luck everyone! =P
November 9th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I hope your right, trader in me made me buy SRS at close @ 9.26
but small posi also shorted URE but can’t report fill as borrow not confirmed
(TD famous for reporting fill a/h due to advisor confirm of borrow avail).
Hedged with a long in GOLD for half value.
The measured short squeeze into close was a picasso, a work of art on bad
news and low/no volume.
Only thing missing today was bernanke appearing on cnbc shouting death to
shorts. . . . while throwing wads of cash at the markets.
This will all end badly, very badly. . . . when the last short capitulates and is
buried in a borrowed coffin.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
here, here.
well said.
I went long 500 SDS at the close banking on just a little profiteering pre and early mrkt Tues.
luck to all.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
“borrowed coffin” – that’s a classic.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
15 minutes after the trade a black cat walked into the house while we
were bring in firewood.
Bad luck for them or me?
Funny, last 200++++ rip was on news buffer was buying a railroad and
bullsh*t on america and todays was on news he was selling off coke
and other rail assets because he’s bullsh*t but not insane.
I just hope the old guy is ok, next we get an announc’t he’s buying the same
railroad and diagnosed with advance alzhiemers and the market will go up
another 400 ++++ points having forgot todays rally.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Palladin;
It was rumored that he would sell WFC but ended up selling his other transports…
Maybe this is good for financials?
November 9th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Buy faz in after hours. Alzheimers announc’t will be he misplaces WFC
and wants to sell that when he finds it.
COF capital one and amex both announced they see light at the end of the
tunnel . . . . yeah, its warren in his locomotive.
One additional thing to note: Its another very low volume day, as have most rally days been. Pullback days have all been on high volume.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
U wanna be the one to break the news to my 400# Sumo wrestler wife that we are
down 100K on trading a/c but its ok because its on no or low volume ?
Get her on a diet at the same time . . . or suggest it while she is visiting u in hospital.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Makes sense to me, and I agree its no comfort at all. I’m in the red too. I just felt it may be an indicator of things to come.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
OM double G Paladin. You are keeping this board alive right now. I kept checking in today just to read your posts – good to laugh on a day when I couldn’t make myself go long and was chewing at the bit hoping for some, any pullback/entry. That said, hopefully Missy P doesn’t see your P Anderson post!
November 9th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Valerie is my fav Amy Winehouse song.
My double g_d ? (we jews not allowed to use that term, pls refer to as double
Hashem for benefit of us MOT’s).
Yes, have to admit, as a trader/investor i am a comedian and the money
i made selling jokes to Larry David now taken via shortselling to Goldman Saks.
I want a poll having donations to my comedy act being forwarded to ST.
Hmm…. Interesting…. My highest probability “buy” and “sell” signal system just fired two “overbought” signals on AXP in three trading sessions (that includes today). The last time this happened was June 4 2007, right at its peak price points…
I’m going to look for the same signal on all big cap stocks now.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Fritz, i went short on AXP lost week already down over 5%
where do you see it going?
November 9th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
It hit its rising wedge resistance today, and if history is any guide (not so good lately for the bears), it should fall to the bottom of the wedge for support, which is at $35.
Like I posted earlier, the signal forecasts a 10% down move from its intraday high today. That fits very well with the wedge support.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
LOL, I just found my system acutally is very good at bottom-picking. Signals fired on almost all DOW 30 stocks on March 5. This goes to show why it’s important to revisit your analysis once in a while.
November 9th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
thanks Fritz, I try to follow stocktock but have very biz work schedule and becasue of that many times I short stocks at top but every time I short it create new 52wk highs
I am holding a fairly large postion of AXP and not sure if i should dump it hold.. will to take loss around 38 but the way market is going higher i am getting scare..
November 9th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
If it makes you more comfortable my system that I mentioned doesn’t fire “sell” signal too often, never mind two signals in three days. The last time this happened to a stock is GS on October 14 2009, when it closed at $192.28. On November 2 2009 GS reached an intraday low of $165.30 If only I had taken that signal seriously and took a chance betting against GS… That’s a 14% drop. Of course at the end of a downtrend, the “buy” signal is even juicier, like on March 5 2009.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
still holding 38 nov puts on axp
November 9th, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Did you pick it up today or last week?
November 9th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Last week on Friday
November 9th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
eow last week
November 10th, 2009 at 12:03 am
Fritz – was looking at the charts … I see AXP going to 40 (at a min), probably 41.15 or even 42 – at that point, I think it is a great short …
Of course, I know not to argue with your “systems” …
but would be great to see what you are seeing … some more insight would be great …
Well, at this point my hedges are out-performing my shorts. A HUUUUGE thanks to Zee for adding some balance – I picked up 100 Dec 115 SPY calls and they are keeping me off the ledge. In fact at this point I hope we blast off to 1170, I’ll be clean green just on that position alone.
I also doubled-up with 20 FAZ 20 puts on Friday to buffer my 1000 FAZ I got caught with @ 23 from an ill-timed trade. Again at this rate I’;ll be getter off if FAZ tanks another 5 points!
I’m in disbelief like most, but with the dollar collapsing, I guess this was inevitable.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
NP.
I got rid out of my SPY call options EOD. I don’t want to see any loss profits on these bad boys.
My portfolio is still fully long. I’m looking to sell my long positions at 1120 or Nov 17th. Whichever event comes first. I now have extra cash in my account (from selling my calls) which will be used to buy more stock on any drops to the 1050-1075 level.
Dec 112 Spy Calls
Opened Position Nov 02 at 0.7250 x 900 contracts = 66,000$
Closed Position Nov 09 at 1.71 x 900 contracts = $155,833.00
236% ROI..
GLTA
November 9th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
good job, wish i could trade like that, i just can’t pull myself to buy calls
November 9th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Awesome job Zee !!
November 9th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Zee are you expecting a move to 1050 1075 before a move to 1120 ? What are you seeing here ?
November 9th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Hey, I’m not too sure of the intra-day movements.. IMO we see 1120 before 1050.
Here is what I see for the rest of the month: **my targets are assuming we are in a bull market**. I say we are likely going to 1200 on the S&P or some number close to that by Dec 1st or Dec 30th 2009 which will be a -quarterly (yes 3 months) top-.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/very-bullish-chart-for-2009?context=latest
As for the bears, I see the downside as maximum 1030 (previous cycle low). Therefore you will not have a favourable short position until the S&P is over 1120. Even then, don’t expect any big market corrections.
The nov 17th top is a very short-term one and will likely only correct the market a maximum of 5%.. bottom line. BE long for november. Try to get in long in the 1040-1060 area (if the market gives you a correction)
November 9th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
I am curious why you closed your Dec calls today instead of waiting to reach the 112 SPY level – can you share Zee .. what r u seeing ?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:17 am
My trading strategy is to capture the initial 60-80% of a rally with leverage since the beginning of a rally is very predictable when you use cycles. Once I feel the upside is more gambling than probability, (which will be at around 1175 on the S&P), I sell my options or I reduce my position.
In this case I sold 75 points early.. Why? $150,000 of call options was too much for me to handlel. Had my initial position been $5,000-$30,000 of calls, I would of likely kept 75-80% of my position. IMO, the options could still double /triple from here.
Right now I am still very bullish on the market and I am still long stock.
I am going to be buying stock on dips (2%), and buying calls on big corrections (of 5%).
November 9th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
My apologies Zee. I called you a desperate bull last week and increased my short percentage. Now I’m down 12% since April instead of 11%. Congratulations on a good call.
so the game play no is that they will keep $ tanking which will result market to go higher, regardless even if we are in deep shit….
November 9th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
It looks that way, but I just can’t see it continue much longer. Its completely insane how long its gone on already.
November 9th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
I live in VA which is known to easy place to find a job. But it seem impossible to find a job yet how can a consumer driven market is going high
November 9th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
party like its 1929, the gov. is putting money into the market along with a few savey traders.
November 9th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Bro, saw the same thing in 1990, 2001, 2003, etc. Suicidal economy
with destitute workers and rocking markets that would make short
squeeze clowns out of us.
Easy money+ fed buying = ‘miracle saved markets’.
And you just haveta know if they are admitting to 10% unemp the actual is
at least double that. Feel bad for you peep in usa, up here in canada things
are rocking and rolling, gov’t stimulus, grants and easy money as far as the
eye can see. Real estate up here hardly went down and only took a 2 week
vacation.
The danger in canada and australia is hyper inflation as money chases
housing and drives prices into the strat. Look at asset inflation in hong
kong, its insane.
added my daily SPY – cleaned up the trendlines for accuracy, pretty straightforward gap above resistance was a big sign that the bears were about to get probed today.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A36499
We’ll see if we confirm tomorrow or if the bears push it back down. It’s a big trendline to overcome but I think that the bulls will eventually succeed. That will work the bearishness off of the retail investor.
Well thank the gods that I was away from my desk all day with the little woman’s surgery. My UYG of course did well today , and because I was out all day I was unable to play the currency market so was out of and sustained no losses
Today brings back into play the possibility of the SPX running up to the multi year bear trend line and finally touching it. I think I will still exit my UYG tomorrow even though some more upside is possible. I want to see where we go tomorrow , the H&S theory is still in play but any move above 1101 will invalidate that.
Srcoll back thru the day’s posts crew. If an indicator of market top (bottom) is when everyone piles into the long side (short side) then we’re getting pretty darn top heavy.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
maybe it will take till zee’s turn date of the 17th to get us there
November 9th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Nov 17th is the date where the market should theoretically make a short-term peak and take a breather of a couple percent and then resume it’s uptrend. It is not to be confused with a ‘turn date’ that indicates a market reversal.
Anyone see the following…….http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/
November 9th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Thanks Cottonman.
Found this vid on the blog.
May be too long to post here but is well worth a cut n’ paste.
A scathing interview by Rep Grayson to Alvarez re the fed’s role.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VPJHfmP3g4&feature=player_embedded
Is it just me or is Elliott Wave Theory just a bunch of horseshit? I cannot believe the lack of accountability from some of these blogs and sites. I won’t name names. You know who they are. And it’s not just the ewavers either. All those astro weenies calling for Bradley turn dates and combusts and all that other pseudo-wiccan astrology horseshit also curiously went silent or disappeared today too. These people infuriate me. They talk and talk and talk and draw all kinds of fancy charts Fibonacci levels in rainbow colors, yet when the time comes to put up or shut up they go dark.
Sorry for the foul language. I just had to vent.
November 9th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
I think where most traders go wrong is to call tops and trying to decipher random market movement.. EWT loves doing both of these and I laugh at them so much when they write we’ve topped or that we’re in minute wave ii and then minute wave iii will take us to 1000, etc…. The truth is that if Kenny and Daneric were making so much money they wouldn’t have time to post intraday comments. If this is truly P3 why are they even posting intraday comments? If the inevitable is going to happen, then bet on it. Go all in with SPY 60, 50, 40, 30 , 20 and 10 puts. Come back in 12 months.
Another flaw of EWT, is that they constanly love to change their count. In charting, either your wrong or right. When you find yourself adjusting waves, or when things are not happening your way, chances are your underlying hypothesis (P3) is incorrect.
Me, I’ve never adjusted a single cycle chart, and I don’t do intra-day analysis. I get the trend right and play it for the entire month.
If Kenny and Daneric are reading this, to improve your calls, maybe you should wait for a 10% correction to be calling P3 (we’ve never had a 10% sell-off since March,9th, 2009). I keep on stressing this, that with anything you need confirmation. EWT love to call P3 before the fact that it is confirmed.
To conclude, I honestly think Kenny & Daneric are paid by GS to promote P3. I mean who can be so stupid to think the S&P is going to the 100-300 levels.
There is huge resistance (cement hard) in the 1014-1030 area and 870-880 area. Anyone who thinks were breaking those levels without a catalyst should not be trading.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Your record is good and i apologize for being brusk with you in past.
BTW who are the 2 your ref’r to?
Right now you have the benefit of having been hot/correct. that cange in a minute.
Precter was right in calling the 87 crash within days and points of the crash, he
has been a perma bear ever since and casts doubt on all elliot wave crap.
I am ashamed to say i pay for sub’s to EW services with guys that have been
great pickers and timers in past (Sheppard) and they had me long at bottoms
in Nov’08 and mar’09 which they called with good accuracy .
Many of these guys turned ultra bear back in July 09 and are convinced the
endo times are upon us. he advocate short markets via SDS QID or
Gold.
Funny, Sheppard was/is wrong on his short call, except that he saw the chance
to buy and hold gold & PMs as the ultimate contra play.
Look at gold and see that open interest agrees with him and the other followers
of EW that saw gold as the play to hedge the market downfall and dollar
collapse which they seem to have timed.
Zee, what is your background and how do you come to your conclusions?
If you say mayan callendar or gartley turn dates. . . .
November 9th, 2009 at 11:28 pm
AMEN
November 9th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Kenny called a head and shoulders top the other day..so what happened to it? did the right shoulder grow a new head? Same with Daneric. They’re both complete morons.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
We will break 1015 before this month ends.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
the way things are going we are going to be in wave 2 for the rest of our lives.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
Hey Zee your Nov 3 call looks damn good,great job,shoud of listened to you.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:49 pm
what was the catalyst in the 1929-1932 crash, just curious.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Confidence shattered
November 9th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Zee whats your roadmap say into EOY.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:21 am
We’re likely going to 1200 on the S&P.
Keep it simple.
Go long stock on corrections of 5-7%.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/very-bullish-chart-for-2009?context=latest
Tha constant changing of the count drives me completely crazy. Drawing in 3,4,5. Calling a top. Top doesn’t come. Move 3,4,5 to the right. Rinse. Repeat. Enough already. STOP.
this is what i think of elliot wave v=zffVd6OgWtA
Zee …
I am curious why you closed your Dec calls today instead of waiting to reach the 112 SPY level – can you share what r u seeing ?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:20 am
#17
November 10th, 2009 at 12:23 am
I love it ! Grumpy old men and super ego’s are now apologizing to a 19yr old kid
what a humbling experience…
I can say we have a balanced view on the blog now with equal number of bears and bulls each stating their case…awesome. One has to win.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:25 am
Also, how flexible is the Nov 17th top call – that is 2 days before OpEx…i guess ‘top’ means that it can trade sideways for a few before a pullback.
Re: EW theory…times are different. The fuel for this rally is Gov’t money and Fed monetary policy which operates outside EW’s psychological underpinnings, IMHO.
I’ve missed out on so much profit by not betting with the Fed. Silly of me. Plus Wall Street will rally into year’s end for bonus’ sake. Always does, eh Zee?
Thanks.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:40 am
Haha, LOL Jon!!
If only the markets would help me with my communications homework for school ..
Buddhabill: I will explain to you how I play these mini cycle tops/bottoms. The big cycle lows (6-weeks) are the cycles that generate the most $. The half cycles are less reliable and thus I like to close the position very fast on any sign of a +2% gain.
The Nov 17th top is a very small top and it is very flexible. What traders should do is record the S&P on nov 17th, and then one can infer that the market will not go 2% higher than that in the next 5 trading days. (Probability wise it SHOULD not, however they’ll always be exceptions! Do not go on margin or leverage on this trade). In those five trading days, the market is likely to be minus 5% to +2% from where it was on Nov 17th given no game-changing news comes out. If Obama declares war on a country, throw the cycle date away and use common sence.
How can you play this to your advantage? Short the SPY (DO NOT GO ON LEVERAGE such as FAZ). Normally, I would close the short position on a +2% gain.. if you do this on every cycle that appears in the year, your retruns are compounded and you can make 50-150% ROI with high probability trades that contain little drawdown. (Usually you want to be long on a very strong correction going into a cycle low, and short on very strong upmoves on a cycle peak.)
November 10th, 2009 at 12:50 am
Steady gains is the best. There’s 2 ways to make money.
Either you go with the trend (in this case it’s up, so your long stock), or you follow a technical strategy that generates buy/sell signals.
With cycles, you only need 1-2 buy/sell signals a month which generates you a 2% return per trade. In total you’ll be up 4% in the month
If you make a 4% return on your account every month, in 12 months, you will have returned 60.10% on your capital. How hard is it to make 4% in a month? Few can do it.
Imagine if you started with $15,000 today in investment capital.
Say your able to earn 4% on your capital a month, and you do this for 10 years.. 10 years down the road, your net worth will be $1,659,938.41
Incredible. This is with a 4% return a month (FAZ moves this much in a day!)
November 10th, 2009 at 1:39 am
Great job Zee! Do you have any pointers to cycle theory reading materials?
thanks
Wow. You guys are all on fire tonight. I need to get some sleep but will be taking notes tomorrow. Thanks all, wish you all the best. MAKE BUCKS!