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06
Nov
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4:08pm
Some of my friends started a short position which they’ll also be adding at 108 (if the SPY reaches that) but I believe they might be a little premature on that… there is a potential H&S formation on the daily, but we are in a megaphone formation, and those could mislead traders.
3:12pm
Stopped out… SPY 106.90 (0.00%)… break even, but since we broke to the downside there is more risk for a shoot down.. that said 106.80 has to break as well for a H&S on the 5 minute to take affect.
3:00pm
Moving Stops to $106.90 (at break even)…
2:41pm
Very nice triangle formation on the SPY 5 minute.. break of either side would mean a shift:
2:08pm
I’m adding more to my short position at 106.95… putting a stop at 107.15
1:36pm
Almost about to get stopped out from the small position… market breaking through 107.25 could push to 107.56 (61.8% retrace).
12:59pm
Placing a speculative short here.. the we had a 10 minute push back into the wedge, and then the last 10 minutes we rallied to 107 and the bears brought us back down to the bottom of the wedge at 106.86-106.90… if we break that, we will see a strong down trace to at least 106.70.. if not 106.20. My stops lie right above the last high of 107.25.
12:24pm
SPY has been trading slightly above the wedge, but has not found any strength to push higher yet. This is a hard to trade market… until one side breaks loose… i rather stay out. It looks like we might have strength rather than weakness…
10:57am
The market is STILL undecided, even though we had fakeouts below and above the wedge… we are back in it… resistance at 106.93, support at 106.51
10:39am
The market is now back in the wedge formation and is trying to break south of it… we still see soe strong support.. but if it were to break we can have a strong push lower… the SPY level is now at 106.50ish.
9:59am
Stops were raised to 107.11. Stopped out of the SPY position (0.01%).
9:56am
SPY LONG in at $107.09, stop $106.80, and will let i trail 20 cents after wards.
9:49am
The bears are doing their best to push this 10 minute candle BACK into wedge resistance around the 106.91… but they seem to be failing.. the first close is at 107.02… lets see what happens in the next candle to confirm this.
9:45am
We are breaking to the upside… before you go long, it might be wise to wait for 10 am reversal.. however, taking long position with a stop underneath wedge broken resistance is also a good trade.
9:39am
Wedge resistance lies at $106.90 on the SPY… if the market can break that it’ll be able to rally to new highs shortly.
9:29am
The SPY looks like it’s about to open BELOW the wedge after the relatively bad jobs report data. Even though we did close above 1061 yesterday, it didn’t seem like the market truly chose a side yesterday. Today it has chosen to collapse.. A confirmed break of of the green wedge would be the end of the rally. Wedge support sits at 106.30…
..burned again..I hate those manipulations…downgrades/upgrades….bought more AMZN to maximize my pain…huge losses today….up almost 5%
November 6th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Lost. 13k on amzn. 52k overall in oct. I am up 1700 this week by staying out.
———– THIS LOKS BEARISH TO ME ————- SRS holding the 50 ma
let’s have a vote LOL …. BGZ struggling to stay above the 20 . flip a coin. im out of my BGZ except for 100 shares. in at $20.26 out at $20.28 ………… yawn .. holding the 100
im holding 600 SRS over the weekend. 600 SRS and 100 BGZ my stomach can handle.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
OK … i lied …. sold 300 SRS @ $10.20
hold 300 SRS and 100 BGZ over the weekend.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
THINK THE GOAL OF THE MARKET IS TO CONFUSE ME
November 6th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
actually…it is. haha.
backtested trend line at 1067. could drop to 1063 and hit next trend line there short term.
Above 10% unemployment = Above 10,000 DOW
Come on 14% unemployment.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
i was talking about this with idan yesterday. unemployment rate is a retarded figure. if a person hasn’t found a job for 2 months, and decides to stop looking, then he’s no longer consider in that unemployment number. if all the sudden the job market gets better, and everyone who had previously given up thinks that maybe they should start looking again, then you’ll get a large spike in unemployment even though there may be more hiring going on. the actual number of those unemployed is WAY higher than 10%, i hate the use of the unemployment rate because it skews everything and tells you squat about the actual economy in a recession such as this.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Dow 14,000?
GS will engineer the end-of-day stick save to keep SPY green. I shoulda played a short on FAZ to scalp the Trade-bot.
———- will the “REAL” SLIM-BUYER please stand up ———-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9y31LyrtMM
get yourself some new shoes this weekend.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
take a look at the this 15min candle wick on SRS … ummmm yah. talk about wicking the stops out. this is JAMAZING candle range $10.08 to $10.20 going to have quite the tail.
wow…we’re now above the long term trend line…
my small spy december call position is up a bit. lol.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
comon woo…. you have to admit this is making you mental.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
oh yeah definitely haha. that’s why i haven’t taken any positions over the last two days until today where i took a super small DECEMBER call position. i am almost in the money, and fairly confident about my positions. i’m laying low because the risk is so high these days. and i’m not looking for 5 point scalps here and there at the moment because work ties me up sometimes.
i hate this market movement, but i’ve got to admit that they are doing a great job ending and leading to areas that are as ambiguous as possible. it hasn’t been as agonizing for me because i haven’t been playing positions like some other people. and it is hell sitting through this wedging/coiling market with any decent sized position. hell, i had a small position two days ago that barely made a profit, and that was one of the most annoying trading days in the world with all the consolidation. haha.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
i pretty much broke even today. max pain for the SPY is around 107 so there you go. maybe we wiggle above and below this level for weeks.
I’m leaving for the day. I was really busy at work this week and I didn’t have much time for trading. Here are the trades that I did this week:
11/02 – bought 400 ERX @ 41.00
11/03 – sold 400 ERX @ 43.70 (+6.59%, +1080)
11/04 – bought 200 ERX @ 45.00 and 200 ERX @ 44.00
11/06 – bought 200 ERX @ 44.50
11/04 – bought 500 DZZ @ 15.00
11/06 – bought 1000 UCO @ 13.20
I’ll hold the open positions (DZZ, ERX, and UCO) over the weekend. Best of luck to all!
Anyone holding anything over the weekend?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
hardly a thing… dont want to be throwing up. 300 SRS and 100 BGZ
November 6th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
I will be holding cold coors lite watching the New England Patriots other than that im in cash until Monday.
November 6th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
UCO ERX amzn puts and C calls
November 6th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
UCO calls (Nov), BAC Dec calls, PALM Dec puts, MOS Nov calls
November 6th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Long a lot of stock.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Long 1000 UCO
Long 500 ICE
Long 2000 PLD
See Morris, the Mayan calendar doesn’t scare me!
November 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
All my shorts – MWN, MZZ, MYY depending on which account you look at. Believe it or not they are still profitable trades despite a WHOLE week of rallying.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
My biggest long position is 912 Contracts of Dec 112 SPY CALLS.
Average price .7250.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
No. Sold my AXP puts that I’d bought at EOD yesterday (believe I have someone on here to thank for pointing out resistance at 37.8, which held pretty well today). Going to wait and see what develops next week. Have a great weekend guys!
November 6th, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Just a fractional share of Potash (POT) my broker won’t let me sell. I learned the hard way not to hold over weekend. Less gain but less pain.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I’ll take the thank you Slater
– you are welcome !!
November 7th, 2009 at 8:07 am
Thanks, bro — next call’s on me!
Fritz, any closing remarks before Monday?
November 6th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
No, just wait and see. I hedged all of my short positions, so I’m not worried.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Thanks, see you then. Enjoy the weekend.
——— SPX ———- closing price on the 15min candle. highest today : 1069.56 …. first thing this morning…. see if they can beat that at the closing bell
November 6th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
added some SPY 107 PUTS to my positions for over the weekend $1.68
Did you see GS, MS, and C all got H1N1 vaccine before some health centers and hospitals? Apparently, the Gov. also believes they are too big to get sick too. What was that earlier comment about reality hitting the market eventually? I wouldn’t hold my breath.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
Yeah my wife saw that on the news. Shortage of the vaccine and the devils get their doses first. No real surprise I suppose, you can’t have those devils that run government policy get sick.
I bet they all have space reserved in government underground bunkers too (taxpayer paid of course)
Disgusting.
JROD…….after today’s action….you still looking for 10,400 on the Dow before we head South?
I don’t know why people complain about manipulation, even if its there it is immaterial to making money here. If this is a wave ii it will be followed by a wave iii down and shorting will be profitable. If it breaks out, then the count is invalidated and this whole action off the top is a corrective move that will lead to new highs. I am short with a stop not too far above where we stand now. Monday I expect the market to go down. If it breaks out, I will close my positions and stay in cash. If it holds strong monday, a vlai buy signal (the system I use to determine bias) will likely fire on Monday’s close and I will switch to a bull bias.
The market is shaking out everyone it can before selling off. It doesn’t want you short if its going to go down, this is how it works. You have to take risks and hold your ground. BIG BALLS.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
If it’s truly going to new lows, why not just wait for a braek of 1014. It’s huge resistance + 38.2% retracement + 2cycle lows{Oct 2nd low resistance + Nov 2nd low resistance}.
A break of 1014 would indeed show the trend is changed.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
it would still only be a 38% retrace. and 38% retrace of a wave doesn’t constitute a confirmed new wave movement. technically we could head down to 61.8% and still have a chance for a rise into new highs. probably wouldn’t happen, but be definition the possibility exists.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
I didn’t wait because I use a system to trade. The system is profitable backtested to the 1980’s. It has caught most of the major market moves inlcuding last fall’s crash and the rally since march. The EW squiggles and chart patterns I’ve been glancing at have just been for personal amusement.
Could only go down 38-61.8% and it wont matter to me. If the market bounces there a buy signal will fire and I will take my profits (if they havent been trailing stopped out before then) and go long. I don’t care if its P3 or not.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
think the second to last candle of the day is proof to that in SRS
that sucker went down hard on light volume to $10.08 and then it closes at $10.20. shake em out and go higher ? who really knows.
November 6th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Agree you need big balls to profit. BUT how many people for how long were calling P3?
November 6th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
big balls get caught in vices. ever see how bulls get castrated? The ‘device’ is called a vicks by farmers. funny, must be a trade name?
Anyone here use Point & Figure charts with any success?
Michael Vincent says market is broke and puts on very bearish warning
http://www.stockchartsvideo.com/play-video.php?id=455&eid=821fa74b50ba3f7cba1e6c53e8fa6845&c=2
November 6th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
”’I am 1000% certain that this market is about to plummet.
when i mean plummet I mean we’re atleast going to go 6500 in the next several months. Everything we do now is to the short side. Red now means green for us..This market is broke. Do not be buying stock long. Those who listen to me and listen to my call will conquer throw this next awful period we’re about to enter”
Very interesting. He says were going sub 6500 but yet does not give us any reason whatsoever why. Not one.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
had me worried, i thought it was you saying that?
Who is the guy? What is his record and why should any of us care? I would
love to be bearish and feel this market should fall to 2,122 . . . . i also feel
that the wealth of Saudi Arabia belongs to me and at least 7 harems must
be throwed in for just cause.
My only reason is that i overpaid for petrol last week and feel a sense of entitle’t.
November 6th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Palladin, what are your thoughts on where the market is going next week?
November 6th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
I don’t know. Stuff that is overbought has been so for ages, normal no longer
exists I no longer play short side on idexes, i take sides on individ stock
such as the STEC trade from Adan (played a small position and got out
way early, no guts, LOL). or AONE.
I realize things ain’t right but fear going short or long, my cash posi is held
in PM’s rather than shorts, that has saved this old ass for months now.
The econo stinks, people are really starting to hold back and not spend, i
just feel that 800 is a better level for the market than is 1100. I would not
be a buyer on the way down, just have a horrible feeling of impending
doom of some type?
My trades are way down, not convinced long or short, have been long
PMs since the crash and nice to see gold finally move. I trust metals,
don’t trust this market for a minute. It went from too volatile to overly
placid.
November 6th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
The market always humbles. While I am positioned short and I hope he’s right I wont be surprised if he gets humbled down the road.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
We just finished a perfect gartley pattern at S&P 1070,we are going down now to Nov 20.Book it
November 6th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
6500 is not happening for at least a year. we have not even burned through 1/3rd of the stimulus money (or at least that’s what they are saying.) this market will continue to be propped up with ‘good economic indicators’ until that stimulus money is dried up. Also, they keep extending all the government programs. we’re going to high 10k before breaking 9k.
November 6th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
Well…..I’ll tell you who this guy is! He is the one that is solely responsible for me getting out of the market on 9/11/2008. His videos over the course of that prior few days, convinced me that we were headed South, and in a big way. Look at the charts in that timeframe. He said he was seeing things in the charts that he had never seen before, because it involved many charts rather than a few. Based on my knowledge, I now believe he was talking about bearish engulfing candles. Nevertheless, I heeded the immediacy of his dire warning on 9/10/08 and called my broker to sell all long positions on 9/11/08. I sat it out for months and saved my self a ton of coin as we collapsed to 666 on the S&P. Unfortunately, I did not follow him much after that, so I’m not certain if he rang the bell to buy in early March of this year. Some advice I heard recently (I don’t remember the where I heard it) was to rely on the source that provided the most accurate information in past circumstances such as we are now facing. And that is exactly what I intend on doing. As investors we hear so much mixed information that we are always analyzing and filtering. At some point, you have to trust something or someone, whether it’s Elliott Wave, TA, fundamentals or a gut feeling. For me, I call bullshit on the economy and the market. Anyone who thinks we are on the road to recovery is either delusional or still on an acid trip from the 60’s. Hopefully I can still move out of my long positions with very little downside. GLTA!
November 6th, 2009 at 11:30 pm
I just find it hard to believe someone who just keeps telling you to sell sell and sell without even one reason to do so. What is he seeing on the charts? Is it a gut feeling? What’s his logic based on?
November 7th, 2009 at 7:46 am
I have followed Vincent and his video’s for two years. His individual picks suck put he has been 100% correct on market tops and bottoms. He was screaming buy in Feb and March and has only initiated his bearish calls in October getting stonger language up to yesterday. I to pulled everything out in September and it saved my ass to make a ton this spring. He is a 28 year veteran and his primary reason for the call is the head and shoulders on short and long term charts.
I think next week will bring a great time to go long.
The trend is still up IMO.
November 6th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
No real news next week, bears get crushed. Low volume market with GS in the drivers seat.
November 6th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
Idan/Woo,
we have Cpn, Zee, Shady, Michael Vincent think markt will plumet due to head-should formation, Gartley pattern, etc. On other side. Jim and Flatron think next week will bring a great time to go long. The trend is still up. A great fund manager, Ken Fisher on Oct 15 said in Forbes wrote that market will go up 15-20%. For me, Daily SSTO, MACD (5,7,3) is uptrend and low RSI14 (is low 41.3 from bottom up which all seems showing market is uptrend. The one make market crash must be based on wrong fundamental. What factors can make markect crush, job data, GDP, earning, or others? Which side can be more right?
November 6th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
hey buddy, i tend to agree with you but the MM’s will arrange a bid down day
on mon or tues to draw in short and squeeze higher into opex. There is a
pattern to this.
WTF is a Gratley?
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091106-715607.html
NOVEMBER 6, 2009, 4:23 P.M. ET
S&P 500 Composite Third-Quarter Earnings Seen Down 15%
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
With 88% of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having reported, composite third-quarter results are expected to fall 15% from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters, though earnings have come in better than anticipated.
Last week, the forecast was for an 18% decline; the percentage shrank on better-than-expected results from Ford Motor Co. (F), among others.
The composite is calculated from actual results as well as estimates for companies that haven’t yet reported.
Of the 440 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted results, 80% reported earnings above analysts’ expectations, 6% matched and 14% missed estimates. In a typical quarter, 61% of companies beat estimates, 18% match and 21% miss. The highest percentage of companies reporting earnings above expectations for a quarter is 73%, in both the second quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2004.
November 6th, 2009 at 11:10 pm
thanx for bring to my attention. look at chart for 04 first quarter. After reporting they
sold the news. . . LOL sold the market after reporting and bought gold and oil
setting up the bull run in PM and energy that crashed in 08.
Can u say history repeats?