2:30pm
Market did set itself up somewhat bullishly into tomorrow, but notice that there wasn’t really a market direction all day (after the first pop). We are in a wedge formation here (i’ll post the chart later today), and until we break out of it, i can’t put a strong position on the table. We will have to see what jobs data does to the market tomorrow.
2:20pm
WOAHHHH Dollar SPIKE… loving it! This should hold the market to the downside.. here..I have not shorted this market yet… but i will if we get a strong down draft. Dollar broke it’s descending wedge resistance (assuming it holds it’s ground)
2:00pm
The last 20-30 minutes do provide some bearishness to the market again, you can only go short upon a break of 1060 though.
1:18pm
I have some friends who went long with a stop at 1058.50… I agree, it looks like we could be headed a little higher here if we hold this level a little longer.. XLF long might look good to. This is an anticipation trade, we have not broken out of the wedge resistance yet… which lies around 1065.
12:18pm
S&P still holding that 1061 level… tough to tell… financials still holding up slightly… this is going to be a tough one to tell which side is going to win.
12:08pm
Hedge fund is now buying a half position in STEC at these levels 14.40-14.50… and is hoping to buy another half a little lower… this stock is now oversold… and even though it can still fall to the mid-high 12s.. it’s worth starting to take a small-medium size position in this.
12:04pm
USO breaking down a triangle formation is definitely going to help the bears out here:
11:55am
The market pulled back right under 1061.. now you can either go long or go short with a stop… very easy trade, very low risk. I went ahead and placed PUTS due to the fact that I still believe this correction is likely to continue. But who knows… I bought SWG WY at $1.01.
10:56am
The xlf has broken back above it’s megaphone (widening triangle) formation, which now makes it slightly more bullish.. you are welcome to take a stab on the long side.. with a relatively tight stop… the SPY looks a little stronger than the XLF.. but a break above 14.26 would confirm a strong bullish trend in the XLF. Tech is much stronger than the rest.. with GOOG breaking the resistance line I posted yesterday.
10:36am
Stopped out oout of my SPY puts as we are breaking 1061 (loss 6 cents).. you can take a long with a stop here.. GS is a buy over 174.
10:15am
Today’s action is very very weird… we have had so many flares and divergences in prices from the ask/bid… very weird stuff.
9:55am
Taking an SPY position at SWG WB right at $1.97, as explained last time.. i think 1061 is strong resistance.. and we are approaching it .. i like holding some puts here. East stop if it rallies above it and i’ll reverse to calls.
9:49am
Stopped out of SPY position at 105.95 (-80 cents Loss) on a 1000 share position… this basically takes away my gains from yesterday. A break of yesterday’s highs will be incredibly bullish for the markets.. but until then, i wouldn’t be placing bets. You can go short there with a nice easy stop.
9:41am
If you’re still holding shorts on SPY like me.. you want to see a solid break of 1052 level on the SPX and really on the green line of support like we did yesterday. That would make me want to add PUTS on the market as well. Otherwise bulls want to see another bar after 10am over 1052 and then a break of 1061.
9:29am
The employment news gave us a little pop here right before the market opens…we’re opening ABOVE the 1052 level… and so i’m going to be putting a stop at 105.95 on my SPY short at $105.17
1:14am
Video:
Sorry I was only able to put it on social (youtube had problems):
Technical Analysis on November 4th
I don’t think the jobs number will be terrible tomorrow… but I am wondering if even if it is good if we have effectively “priced in” the news today.
Market rallies on bad news, so why not sell-off on good news?
Mark
I think your mind has been manipulated that less bad is good. If we lose anything over a 100,000 jobs its bad. Mark, you probably think that paying $2.00 a gallon is cheap. Thats not cheap, but your mind hase been manipulated to think that. I love when bulls think like you cause it setsup a perfect risk reward that the market is going down the proverbial toilet. Flush!!!!!!!
anything under 10%, IMO, we rally big. 10% it’s anyone’s game. 10.1 or more SELL.
No – even I am seeing the same on UUP … someting going on … its at 22.70 from 22.49 ..
What is the value of UUP? TDAmeritrade is showing it at 22.69, but that is impossible, isn’t it?
22.92 on my chart –shooting star.
I don’t know what is going on, but if the UUP holds up, a crash is imminent!
maybe the tophat guy is to get all the short scared by telling us that the big money is shorting the puts.
Weird…StratergyDesk is showing that too…
Some really really weird stuff happening today on bid/ask flares all over the place.
could be flare, hard to figure–market not responding……………yet.
gap fill in sept. 23.2.
this is interesting the dollar exploding and the spy just sits there
gld just sits there
I don’t think the dollar is up. Look at EUR/USD and CAD/USD, they’re still stuck in a tight trading range.
I would have to think that maybe someone/institution just placed a large market order to buy UUP.
My thoughts exactly. Last week we had the market tanking when UUP moved up 9 cents.
I am entering FAZ as BKX is at 42.62.
2000 at 21.93
i feel like buying alot of puts, anyone
Something huge is happening!
bull sentiment is taking over
uup reads 23.01 !!! up 2.22%
Any experts out there to explain this phenomena
oil or gold not reacting to the that big of a swing
the overall market is ignoring the dollar spike!!! this definitely a “wow”.
23.12 now!!
Look at dollar chart..It did not spike!!!!
Do you just a feeling that some thing very strange is going on today !!! or maybe im losing my mind and need to get away from a computer..
what is going on
anyone know about currency meeting today
They are just F**** with us the retail bulls and bears
lol
I think some large buyer just placed a very large market-buy order on UUP, and hence the spike. Currencies are not trading with large swings, at least I have not seen it.
what’s the point
To perhaps explain the spike in UUP. Not market related.
Someone want to explain to me how an ETF that tracks and underlying market can move so much withing the underlying market moving? One outlying trade being placed that hits stops is one thing… UUP is suddenly trading independently of anything else. No currency pairs are moving against the dollar.
Short UUP as a hedge against shorts. You’ll make money if this is a bogus rise in dollar or make big money in your shorts if this is real.
November 05, 2009 01:31 PM Eastern Time
DB Commodity Services Files with the SEC to Register 100 Million Additional Shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–DB Commodity Services LLC today announced it has filed a registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register 100,000,000 additional shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE Arca: UUP) in order to meet investor demand. Creations of new shares in the fund are temporarily suspended pending clearance of the registration statement by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the National Futures Association and declaration of the effectiveness of the registration statement.
thanks about to have a heart attack
That’ll do it. Thanks.
That’s exactly what I was getting at.
Dam, web trading bots. $20 says they picked up the UUP in their scanners and ran with it!
I don’t see the Dollar spike at all, at least according to INO.com. UUP may be spiking, but it’s probably reacting to the halt/news about it. The Dollar Index is only up fractionally.
bears are set to be killed so be ready!
average volumn on UUP is 2.3 m. it’s traded over 8.7m so far today. Might match what Fritz is thinking.
buck has not budge,nother bear tease
This market wants 1120 on the S&P before Dec 14th….. EW folks predicting a crash and a strong dollar may be right at some point, but this global fiat system can last a lot longer then most think. At any rate, from a global perspective the US still is in the driver seat. How long this lasts is anyone’s guess.
can i have your autograph
UDN is the bear partner to UUP and it is also green (but barely)
So UDN is tracking correctly and the dollar is basically flat on the day.
yeah, basically they bid up the price well beyond the NAV. I think NAV is only about 22.50.
Seems dollar bulls is maybe getting to be a crowded trade now. Maybe because of that Prechter’s bullish on the dollar interview.
Ha, like the dollar is suddenly going to become something rare and precious, and gold is going to $600 yeah right.’ haha.
Are you for real? Dollar bulls was at 3%. I would say dollar bears is the crowded trade, which is why it has been correcting back up.
Yeah I know that supposedly dollar bulls WERE at 3% recently, if that’s even reliable info. What is that figure now though? Have you checked out the huge and increasing volume on UUP in last 2 weeks?
You don’t see them adding 100M shares to UDN do you???
A spike in UUP must raise the dollar. That is because of arbitrage. Those who can trade in currencies can sell UUP and buy the dollar until the two are in equilibrium and make money in the process.
that tells me not to watch uup as an indicator of anything
http://www.netdania.com has free live EUR/USD chart, and you can even draw Fib retracement lines with their java web charting.
how many people you think went short with that uup thing
Weird… share issuance should be dilutive and should make UUP go down, not up… bizzare action.
can somebody explain please? a lagre market order seems impossible but possible
somebody has another reason?
It happened with UNG they issued 50 mil shares and the shares went from $14 to $9.5
Jusbreal: Natural gas also went through a 50% correction during that same time period.
No, there’s no dilution to holders. The NAV doesn’t change. NAV is determined by values of the futures contracts.
HS pattern on the S&P once we hit 1070 then drop to 1040 reversal time
Anyone notice this is exactly the action we saw last thurs before being hit down the next day>
Same dollar action too if i recall right.
Big spike coming.
the dollar is flat
Even the story is the same, rally on better than expected jobs and ism.
about to head out for the day; sell order in place for my ERX @ 46.00
good luck!
Dont be fooled. The spike in UUP will send the dollar higher and the market lower. Do not get stopped out of your shorts. Somebody is playing reverse, reverse, reverse psychology.
what happens if there is one more reverse.
Are you playing the bearish bear, “be short and be strong”. No offense though, just having fun.
I loaded up on AXP puts, I am very short AXP now.
what month
Fritz – what strike / month …
Also, we just broke the resistance on AXP – so why ?
November, all the way from 34 to 37.
AXP resistance is at $37.8, and this is a major one as it is 50% retracement of the entire move lower. My charts are showing divergence on AXP, so I feel comfortable with my position. On top of that, it’s hedged.
just picked up 10 puts on axp, my friend
What did you hedge with?
I don’t know guys, AXP has broken out of a 2 week consolidation, with stochastics and RSI rising, it’s nowhere close to the upper rising channel.
The only bearish sign I can see technically is that it’s gone above the bollinger band. Unless the markets drop tomorrow I don’t see AXP dropping a whole lot.
TD Ameritrade ran out of shares, although I did get a little shorting in first, but if you have access, a short of UUP and an equal short of UDN cannot help but make money. It is how the little guy can do an arbitrage.
This market is being manipulated, but does that really matter? If they want to stop the manipulation, it needs to start with derivative regulation.
If you can’t beat em.. join em..
how you doing goingtoretire?
still working
Too many confusing data. Dollar and market both rally! weird stuff. I think dollar rally is just a short covering though.
no rally in the dollar it’s just the uup
Wouldn’t it confuse even more if the DOW closes right at 10k?
lol:-)
Minute ii is nearing completion. Might top tomorrow. That will start minute wave iii which should take us probably below 1000 on the spx.
as I said my stop loss is above 1080. I would not be surprised to see 10 more points here, but you’ll know its turning when you see stuff starting to break down.
thanks for the post, Chacro
moron
What’s you prediction, so far it’s playing out nicely.
yep-looks like they are going to try to close it on the highs of the day.
There will be no sell off today bank on it.
I really want the DOW to close just a bit below 10k
why
bet they close it at 9999
9999.9
@ Fritz (above)
LOL! I really wish Bullish Bear would make one his “be long or be wrong” proclamations right now. It would give me the courage to short more here.
All kiddings aside I have now just found myself tapping into margin, and this wasn’t planned. I need to grab some call options here.
we could be up till the 10th, so why did i buy puts? i am an emotional trader and need to have my mouse taken away
we could be up till the 17th in my cycles..
I hear crickets chirping..
that is not very nice you go stand in the corner
That is sad dude! Idan add alot of value to the board. no one is 100% correct.
BTW I followed him with STEC dec 15th calls at 1.25
BAD Johnny !
Thank you very little!
———– PHEW ———— checking in at end of day and now i know why i enter and exit a trade and then leave it alone. trailing stops are the only way for me right now.
SRS getting pummelled in the last hour
we may just rally to around the 9th ………… im going to start looking for a turn date and go with that . however , no big positions for me. ive been burned a bit too much in the past few weeks. have a few ideas but nothing concrete until the 9th
if we get a sub 10% # tomorrow and the financials decide to participate, this market is going to sky rocket
If the number shows we’ve peaked.
I would expect Dow +200..
Careful, the good number got bought up today, tomorrow will be down even if
the market gets good numbers.
Good number on jobs or unem dollar will rise and market will end up lower
even if surge on news.
Just remember, we did exactly this last thrus with a 200++ point up day only
to tank the next day. Dam right history repeats.
I know, but if the unemployment has peaked, CNBC will be all over it..
Imagine if the Unemployment # drops? +200 for sure.
Any upside surprise will propel it higher early on…
Many Bears always point out the “job numbers” in their argument so any posittive news will start a short covering
I think we are in the process of putting a right shoulder on S&P for a top head and shoulders which could take us to 1075-1080, unless of course the data tomorrow morning is worse than expected, then the right shoulder would have to be smaller. The neck line would be around 1025. Of course this is all a possibility not a probability.
UUP is trying to issue 100 million new shares (no, that’s NOT a typo) due to “unprecedented demand”. Until then, all new share creations HAVE BEEN HALTED! Which means UUP will trade to a premium to its NAV. I am short November 23 Calls and Long December 23 Calls in a 1×2 spread (Short 10 November $23 calls, long 20 december $23 calls). This could be why the dollar spiked all of a sudden. Everybody and their cat is short the dollar either through futures or short UUP. I honestly think a massive short squeeze can form here and we can be off to the races to $24 on UUP in no time.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uup-halted
Bob Prechter: Bear Market Rally Is Over, Stocks Headed For New Lows
Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March, now says the stock market “is in a topping area.”
Why?
Several factors:
Slowdown in upside momentum. Recent intraday rallies are petering out before the close.
Bullish Sentiment. Investors who were bearish near the lows, are now just as bullish after a 60% run in the S&P 500. To Prechter, “that’s a dangerous place to be.”
General overvaluation of stocks.
He’s predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below this year’s low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents for now and wait out this bear market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367008/Bob-Prechter-Bear-Market-Rally-Is-Over-Stocks-Headed-For-New-Lows?tickers=spy,qqqq,dia,%5Egspc,%5Edji,uup,udn&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Prechter is a fucking moron who should die
i guess you lost money, just be patient and you can make it back.
Ew has predicted this market to a T since the top so far. You must not know what you are doing at all, John.
interesting….. many think like this due to the recent action. however, today’s action speaks loud and clear…. bullish. no sell off at the close today.
That dude has been saying that since Aug, tell me why we should believe him now?
My advice, follow Elliot Wave if somehow you believe it helps you, and it somehow gives you clarity, although I don’t see how. It’s definitely not for me, but to each his own.
But, avoid like the plague Prechter’s “religous” cult, and those that parrot and promote him, like Daneric. The only genious that guy has is attracting followers. He’s got some really warped beliefs, IMO.
No sh*t, I saw phrases like these on Daneric’s Blog;
“Your word is scripture”
“Take us to that peaceful abode on top Mt. Olympus, that Prechter has spoken about”
LMAO
GS is playing games again.
The S&P closed at 1066.63 —>*66.6*
So I got myself in a pickle holding 1000 faz and I anticipate an initial drop tomorrow. I can either:
a) take my lumps now a/h
b) sell short against it, cover if we gap down, then be patient as the much-anticipated right shoulder completes
c) ride it out (I’m hedged with 100 Dec SPY 115 calls in case we go straight up)
I’ve been highly successful with FAZ scalps, I just got caught napping and broke my own rule and let the loss run. Grrrrrr. Happens, though.
Thoughts?
p.s. Vix calls are getting tempting if one believes in the H/S pattern…
I have some… should have sold at 24.00 the other day. Then rebought later, resold at 23… etc…
If the rally continue tomorrow then I guess it would be leading by energy. Although I am going to consider going short on SPY around 1070~1075
I am betting on OIL and ERX to go higher if we get a decent job number….they lagged today
Added to sco–now 19,700 shares. Will add again if spx gets to 1070 in morning (or tonight). Figuring stops at this point–still playing with house monies.
limit on partial–13.11, 13.4, some stops at 12.2.
does this feel like july august to anyone
Naw. A lot choppier. Much more overlap. Even less volume (yes – price trumps volume, yada yada). Being a bear has been tough, but we are topping. We are seeing large-scale distribution and preparation for a crash.
Crash = Fritz’s 10% over a few days.
Can somebody figure out an empirical correlation between Yankees winning the World Series and bullish movement prior to the game.
Same as super bowl factor. Worked good last year.
I feel they are just making crap up to push or pull markets in the way that best
suit the gold man position for the next day?
THE TIME IS FIXEED!!
WOOT
Steve Grasso, trader who seems to live on CNBC and called 1000 and 1100 ages before they happen, is now a bear. States “we are on the edge of something and I don’t think it is something good” and he points out the anemic volume, which on the SPY today was horrible… http://www.cnbc.com/id/33656473
I am looking for one stock that should go to zero on Monday.
which one
What the average investor does not know, is that volume is not the same as i used to signify..
With so many dark pool, rebate traders, and HFT, volume IMO means very little.
If you have a stock that trades say 1million shares a day, if you have 10 people on my trading floor trading that stock, we could easily do 1 mil volume pushing the volume to 200% its avg volume. Does it mean anything no? The 1 million volume we put on is simply ‘liquidity added’ and not ‘accumulation’.
I sometimes trade 200,000 shares on Citigroup in a day.. some people on my trading floor trade 2 million shares of C a day.. My company hired a HFT who trades in Singapore who trades 50+million shares a day and 5-10mil shares in C alone.
So when you hear low volume, know it could just mean buy programs/HFT don’t like the order flow, and if you hear high volume, it could mean manipulation by HFT..
In the end, volume is very hard to interpret.
Zee whats you take on C. I have some jan 11 5 calls
Zee trades millions of shares and has time to post here every 3 minutes?
I must be warren buffett.
hi warren, i think zee can do it he had been right all year and thinks truly contrition and has the feel of the market down.
dude! post your trades like he does and we can call it even. Stop babbling and start posting trades.
where is mr Goldmansucks and his sidekick today
JON, honestly I don’t know what C will do in the future but GL on your calls. I personally own stock at 3.97 but only to be quickly flipped in the 4.30-4.60 area.
Know this though, it has failed to rally above $5 numerous times showing it’s bearish nature. The day that it holds $5 for a month is also the same month where C will push to $7 very fast. Remember when C becomes over 5, mutual funds/financial institutions will be allowed to add C into their holdings, also when C pushes above 5,.
Also check out the ST blog, I backtested an technical strategy on Citigroup.. I think you’ll find it interesting.
LOL.
You know the saying?
If you can’t dazzle ‘em with brilliance, baffle ‘em with B.S.
Palladin: I’ve had the swine flu and have been told to stay home from work for 2 weeks, that’s why you see a ton of intraday postings..
Take care buddy! I have kids in school and some one in my daughters class got it too, she is doing fine now.
take care…I have C in my long term account at $1.45 average 1/4 of my kids college fund.
Market topped imho……we will look back on today as the ‘blowoff top’ everyone was waiting for………….. Dow 10k backtest and Down Elevator…..
As history has shown during this 7 month rally, calling the top has just not worked.
According to cycle low, we have not topped.. this is just the beginning of the rally.
If you go back to pre-2000, and 2002, we went above and below the 10k mark 50+ times..
It is unlikely we have topped just because we’ve backtested Dow10,000. If that’s your reasoning it is weak, because 10,000 is a psychological number anyways..
Right now all we are doing is backtesting a recent decline Zee… you have a H&S in the market potentially forming and you have the 20ma at 1070 and 61.8% retrace of the recent decline at 1073.
Wow what a day$$
Volume was lower across the board today suggesting proffesionals did not participate much again in the rally, a possible red flag.
There was a whole slew of awesome earnings reports today, with VERY few on the ugly side, if you can really even call them ugly. i love Thursdays. Really all week have seen really nice E/R’s.
About 270 E/R’s last night/today here are the really exceptional ones;
FSYS SANM ROCK KAI DGIT RSTI SNTS CNU FARO MELI HT WG CHUX PAET KSWS HURN JAS LAMR KOP COGO MEND ABMD MITI INTT SCI THOR PDC GIVN PPO CECO SCI GIVN LINC PRSC HIL USPH ONNN ATRO ADEP MPW PSEM CELL MED WWW SXCI
And here are the baddies, nothing too awful at all;
SMSI PL ELMG WFMI ANDE ARO and CVS?