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05
Nov
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2:30pm
Market did set itself up somewhat bullishly into tomorrow, but notice that there wasn’t really a market direction all day (after the first pop). We are in a wedge formation here (i’ll post the chart later today), and until we break out of it, i can’t put a strong position on the table. We will have to see what jobs data does to the market tomorrow.
2:20pm
WOAHHHH Dollar SPIKE… loving it! This should hold the market to the downside.. here..I have not shorted this market yet… but i will if we get a strong down draft. Dollar broke it’s descending wedge resistance (assuming it holds it’s ground)
2:00pm
The last 20-30 minutes do provide some bearishness to the market again, you can only go short upon a break of 1060 though.
1:18pm
I have some friends who went long with a stop at 1058.50… I agree, it looks like we could be headed a little higher here if we hold this level a little longer.. XLF long might look good to. This is an anticipation trade, we have not broken out of the wedge resistance yet… which lies around 1065.
12:18pm
S&P still holding that 1061 level… tough to tell… financials still holding up slightly… this is going to be a tough one to tell which side is going to win.
12:08pm
Hedge fund is now buying a half position in STEC at these levels 14.40-14.50… and is hoping to buy another half a little lower… this stock is now oversold… and even though it can still fall to the mid-high 12s.. it’s worth starting to take a small-medium size position in this.
12:04pm
USO breaking down a triangle formation is definitely going to help the bears out here:
11:55am
The market pulled back right under 1061.. now you can either go long or go short with a stop… very easy trade, very low risk. I went ahead and placed PUTS due to the fact that I still believe this correction is likely to continue. But who knows… I bought SWG WY at $1.01.
10:56am
The xlf has broken back above it’s megaphone (widening triangle) formation, which now makes it slightly more bullish.. you are welcome to take a stab on the long side.. with a relatively tight stop… the SPY looks a little stronger than the XLF.. but a break above 14.26 would confirm a strong bullish trend in the XLF. Tech is much stronger than the rest.. with GOOG breaking the resistance line I posted yesterday.
10:36am
Stopped out oout of my SPY puts as we are breaking 1061 (loss 6 cents).. you can take a long with a stop here.. GS is a buy over 174.
10:15am
Today’s action is very very weird… we have had so many flares and divergences in prices from the ask/bid… very weird stuff.
9:55am
Taking an SPY position at SWG WB right at $1.97, as explained last time.. i think 1061 is strong resistance.. and we are approaching it .. i like holding some puts here. East stop if it rallies above it and i’ll reverse to calls.
9:49am
Stopped out of SPY position at 105.95 (-80 cents Loss) on a 1000 share position… this basically takes away my gains from yesterday. A break of yesterday’s highs will be incredibly bullish for the markets.. but until then, i wouldn’t be placing bets. You can go short there with a nice easy stop.
9:41am
If you’re still holding shorts on SPY like me.. you want to see a solid break of 1052 level on the SPX and really on the green line of support like we did yesterday. That would make me want to add PUTS on the market as well. Otherwise bulls want to see another bar after 10am over 1052 and then a break of 1061.
9:29am
The employment news gave us a little pop here right before the market opens…we’re opening ABOVE the 1052 level… and so i’m going to be putting a stop at 105.95 on my SPY short at $105.17
1:14am
Video:
Sorry I was only able to put it on social (youtube had problems):
Technical Analysis on November 4th
I have composed a study that shows OTM puts (>15%) will expire worthless if you buy them on Nov 1st and cash them in Jan 1st, in 100% of the cases since 1964.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/a-44year-time-study-of-the
Note:
- I am not against shorting this rally at all.
- This study shows that if you want to short, do not do it with OTM puts.. Do it with borrowing shares or by buying an inverse ETF.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:16 am
Or with ITM puts or selling vertical call spreads or far OTM puts for well into 2010.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:27 am
We really need an edit button.
[Some will debate with me that the options still have time value on Jan 1st so they are not entirely worthless.. so I came prepared and decided to check if they were in the money 3 weeks later on Opex..]
Even in the 4 worst years since 1964, only 1 time was buying OTM (>15%)profitable [and you had to have perfect timing].
In 1969, if you waited to cash-in Jan Opex, the options were worth $0.
In 1973, if you waited until Jan Opex to cash in the options, they were worth $0
In 2007, if you cashed the puts on Jan OPEX they were worth $0.
Only in 2008 was buying OTM puts in november a good strategy. However, you needed PERFECT timing at both the market TOP and BOTTOM. And in the end you likely only made 5-15% ROI since the correction was only 15.5% during the 2 1/2 month period from nov1st to jan 22nd.
Bottom line: Stick to shorts and less to OTM puts.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:35 am
And I know someone is going to mention that I did not take into account if you sell the options early and profit from the intrinsic time value… when you start throwing in factors like these–it’s kind of hard to come up with probabilities..
I have just increased my EUR/USD short again. Yesterday we smacked face first into the bottom side of the bullish trend line that is from the entire bullish move from 2002. We stayed on the bullish side of this line all the way up till the financial crises where we broke through this line going down to bounce soundly off the 50% fib of that bear move. Since then we have failed to move back above this long term trend line.
Yesterday we smacked back into the bottom of this trend line before falling off after the fed. That trend line and the bullish trend lines since March 09 have created an extremely steep rising wedge. The EUR/USD is going back down imo , and when it firmly breaks this rising wedge the move will be dramatic.
The bull scenario would require the EUR/USD to regain it’s bullish long term trend line , snapping the last major fib resistances , and the resuming it’s climb to brand new highs that surpass those set beginning ‘08. I simply cannot bring myself to support this scenario, only massive hyper-inflation could drive such a move. This would be the point for it to happen though and I cannot think of a single reason why without some major event in the immediate future that massively deflates the dollar this scenario would come to pass.
So I’m going out on a limb and saying the EUR/USD is going to collapse. Well collapse might be a poor choice it could take anywhere from late 2010 to mid 2011 to reach the neckline depending. That range would be 1.34505 -> 1.37579 respectively (longer it takes to get there higher the neckline is). Thats what the monthly chart says to me , your mileage may very but unless we get a bullish blow off top I’m staying short the EUR/USD from the point down to that neckline.
November 5th, 2009 at 2:09 am
If this works …. my chart :
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/albums/arcticfire-eurusd-pair-chart
November 5th, 2009 at 2:14 am
Yup that will do , the Purple dotted line is the long time bull trend line dating from 2002. This is the hourly view. At some point when I’m not falling down from exhaustion I will make a social blog post about all this with more charts.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:17 am
Do you get the info that Pete sends out from Citi FX? You may want to look at the chart yesterday on page 3. They caught a very interesting fractual between gold and eur/usd that if the pattern holds shows eur/usd has the potential to rally up quite a bit the over the next few days.
If you don’t, pop open a daily chart on gold and look at the action in gold in the first few months for the last 3 months. Then pop open a eur/usd chart and look at the same time period. It shows that in the first few days of the month gold rallies hard and is then followed by Eur/usd within a few days.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:20 am
sorry, meant look at the first few days of each month in gold action for the last 3 months.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Interesting , I will be keeping an eye on the line in the sand I have for what I would consider a “blow off top”.
I’m expecting a 2% drop today, if not greater.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:59 am
I hope so, but I’m not convinced the selloff yesterday was the start of minute iii down. It could just be b down of minute ii up. If that’s the case, we might shoot up more. Possibly as high as 1080 but I doubt that high. Then we start the devastating minute iii down.
That said, I’m loosening my stop to account for a potential move up to 1080, I assume we will top out before that if we haven’t already.
The vix was down almost 4% yesterday, this might be a clue that the selloff was fake. Also, the futures, which were down quite a bit overnight, have recovered somewhat. Oil still looks weak as hell though and the dollar is stronger which makes a good bear case.
This is all moot though if this is P3 my positions will be so profitable all of these squiggles wont matter. Gotta wait and see.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:54 am
Oil looks weak? As long as it appears the obammie admin is intent on destroying the dollar, oil will rally as will gold.
Oil and gold are at the midpoint, not the end of up cycles. We cannot run our
cars or heat homes with iPods.
To quote Barons: “If the economy is so weak, weak that it cannot withstand
2% interest rates to reward the savers we so need. . . . then america is
beyond repair.”
To wit, you can’t repair debt with more debt, cheap rates become expensive.
The financial system is so crippled at this point that fiscal breakdown has been
conveyed to the public purse as it was in argentina, peru and zimbabwe. No lessons have been learned, the price movement in gold is being ignored again.
No one wants the hard medicine. Our leaders sold us out to acquire offshore
bribes in china and viet nam. Funny, the jobs and manu capacity we sold to
china and india on the cheap and subsidized by the american taxpayer is now
needed. Will the far east be as charitable as our bottom feeder politicians
were to them?
November 5th, 2009 at 8:58 am
I wouldn’t be so bearish on the dollar. Although we may see a divergence from the almost perfect negative correlation we’ve seen between the dollar and equities, going short the dollar is about as risky as going long the markets right now. Same with bullishness on gold, you can see even Idan closed his gold hedge last night because the Fed is (without overtly stating it) worried about a deflationary environment. They are not all powerful.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:26 am
Oil futures above 80 and the dollar weakened. People might be waiting to see what the jobs report says.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Why are you expecting a 2% or greater drop today?
Fed rate stays the same. Home buyer Tax credit extended and expanded. More unemployment benefits so those out of work can spend money this holiday season and keep those retail numbers inflated. Dollar falling again. Just more candy for the market to give it that quick burst of energy with no regard for long term effects and lack of sustainable benefits.
Idan. Take a look at a chart that shows the price of gold vs the SP500.
Funny, when the price of gold in dollars crosses the SPU on the way up it results in a crash in
both ? Not a whole lot of data to chart and confirm on this factor, could be coincidental, but worth
a look.
News and the Markets, an interesting study. . . .
FWIW most here realize that stock prices and news have zilch to do with each other, they are
most often contrary indicators. Another good reason to watch CNBC with the sound off.
http://commoditybullmarket.blogspot.com/
So much for the down day..Futures way up after employment news and oil is up dollar down same old reflation trade since march still holds.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I wouldn’t draw that conclusion unless we break into 1080+ on the SPX.
This has nothing to do with news. The news is bullshit they use to explain minute [ii] up. The market drives the news, not the other way around.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:59 am
“The market drives the news, not the other way around.” classic EW statement.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Indeed it is. And it’s true.
I still see what looks like a triangle to me and its intact. A break above 1058 would signal a reversal (my trend lines are out of whack, that’s approximate) a break down in the 1040s would signal continuation to the downside. The EW counters favor upside from here.
good morning all..
idan,
can you look at the 10 min on LVS and confirm if it’s a H and S with a neckline around 14.80? still in the play. kinda hovering in the middle of the BB but still no confirmation if’s heading south.
thanks
November 5th, 2009 at 11:24 am
yeah i could see that… but i’m not sure it will manage to break south.. that’s yet to be seen. I won’t prematurely short that.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:25 am
thanks idan
Why I am seeing messages posted with timestamp 1 hr ahead? Is server time off?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:25 am
yeah it got off due to daylight savings… scott still has to fix it.
Anyone knows what a good level is to go short on XLF? Actually I am looking at the max price XLF could go so I can load some FAZ.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Sam are you expecting a sell off today too.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:59 am
No I am not expecting a sell off. I guess we can start reversing slowly at 1070 which is 200MA on 5 min chart.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:36 am
I don’t know about XLF… but I am using BKX to play FAZ/FAS pair. It has worked for me in last 6 trades. 42.62 is serving as support/resistance for BKX… As of now BKX is below it… I will buy FAZ if BKX touches 42.6 and more if it goes to 43.5
November 5th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Sam, did you ever get my response on the EW blogs?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:00 am
no, Which blog??
November 5th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I replied to you I think it was last week. You were interested in other EW sources. First, woo is incredible. I also like Idan’s analysis, but he is more classic TA than EW, IMO. If you want some others, you could try kenny, daneric, shanky, evil speculator….
November 5th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Yes Thank you, I am learning and it is very intersting thing that I guess it takes time to learn it well. Thanks again. I also would like to learn about option price and when is a good time to buy option. For example yesterday when XLF was 14.30 the price of put option with 14.00 strick was 0.37 now XLF is around 14.14 but the put option is the same 0.37. I know by time passing the option price would change but there are other factor I guess that I need to find about. Any thought on this I would appreciate it.
GOOG looking strong here albeit on low volume.
maybe fritz, we make it up to 1120 zee and the christmas rally might me underway or maybe not maybe we make it up to 1080 on the 10th and have a strong pull back.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:40 am
i meant zee’s christmas rally might be underway.
Down flares on FAS…lets see if this one plays out like woo mentioned.
So far it’s playing out like what I posted last night. Just a note: the two big pushes, yesterday and today, have relieved short term oversold condition. VIX “buy” signal has been relieved, too. From this point on, it’s anyone’s game.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:53 am
thinking of buying more march put’s what do you think
November 5th, 2009 at 11:00 am
I’d only buy March puts on 3X (long) ETFs, as they’re designed to be long term losers.
Watching TZA for a decent entry point. Anyone else?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:37 am
I won’t touch 3X short ETFs at these volatile moments. Don’t want to get stopped out as the markets moving up and down. Looking to buy more shorts (SH, DOG or PSQ) @ SPX 1068 ~ 1075 and add 2X short ETFs at higher level if it gets there. GL.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Good advice Anitang!
SPY Calls + 42.07% on 900 contracts.. Jesus.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:24 am
way to go dude! R U ringing the register or waiting …
OIL is flat but the market is up! a good sign I think
November 5th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Thanks Jon, most people would be happy being up 16.21% on their entire portfolio, however, by selling now I might miss out on potential gains. No one got rich selling early
but no one went broke either :p, haha. The theoretical top is November 17th therefore there’’s still a lot of room for this rally to run.
———- SRS ———- limit order filled $9.92 …. . setting a stop slightly below
i never traded yesterday and reviewing the tape im glad to have sat out
November 5th, 2009 at 10:59 am
set the stop $0.20 below …. $9.72
Wow – look at all the flares on SPY – stops getting taken out ?
Yesterdays selloff at the end of the day was very interesting and it tells me that the funds or managers maybe using the spikes to sell positions or the notion of buy the dips has changes to sell the spikes.
i am adding to my FAZ position……. Bot 2000 more at $22.10….. Good luck to all
does anyone think we actually hold these gains at the end of the day? I think they hit the 10,000 and sell into the close
November 5th, 2009 at 11:11 am
No way we hold the gains. We hit the top of the bear channel on the spx , time to go back down.
However … if we break above it I’m getting out of my FAZ.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:19 am
we have already seen the top for the day and yesterdays volume in FAZ tells me that we are being setup for a pull back
Funny, with the spike up this morning, AXP momentum is really low on the MACD. Time will tell if I made the right choice shorting it.
———– SRS —————- looks like i got a good entry at $9.92 …. trailing the stop $0.20
from the 15min closing candle prices. this is a loose 2% stop.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:16 am
stop now set at $9.82
Idan, The stock market are so volatile recently.
Do you expect a sell off this afternoon like yesterday?
November 5th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Watch Goldman Sachs it is starting to fall if they go red we sell off IMO.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Davesh77, thanks for help!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Maybe, maybe not… it’s impossible to tell we have to see 1061 either hold or break down..that’ll be the first sign.
Short more SPZ09 at 1060.25
November 5th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Or ESZ09…. usually helps to get my symbols right.
What the heck is going on here? SRS Has bid ask at 10.01-10.03 yet is trading at 9.91-9.90? Happening with FAZ and FAS
Interesting article regarding CRE. Makes one think that we might not see the implosion of the Commercial real estate market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-federal-reserve-accepting-illiquid-cmss-collateral-talf-loans
November 5th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Cottonman;
I think the CRE implosion is blown out of proportion. Anything that is hyped in the media is just insane..same goes for this dollar carry trade.
In my experience things are only on media AFTER the event has occurred not before.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:33 am
People have been talking about how CRE was going to be “the next shoe to drop” for over a year and maybe it will come to pass at some point but it is interesting to note how the market has reacted to these warnings since March.
Let’s see, IYR had an intraday low of 20.98 on March 6th, 2009 and is now trading around 41.00 for a gain of 95.42% in this time period.
Hmmmm …
November 5th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Morris:
I think the reason for this reaction is the assumption has been made Treasury and the Fed will provide another bailout for the banks. However, I think it will be politically impossible for the Treasury, through Congress, to act and the Fed has a limit on how low they will let the dollar drop, thereby limiting their action. If gasoline goes above $3/gallon, it will undo much of what has already been done and really hurt Obama and the democrats politically.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:52 am
MJ,
My point really is that market action does not necessarily reflect the sentiments that many people might have about a given sector. We have seen posts for months from bears where they are just dumbfounded by the move we have seen since March. It doesn’t make sense to them based on their feelings about the state of our economy.
So, maybe CRE will crash and may be it won’t . As far as trading it goes, it doesn’t really matter. If IYR is going up, I want to be long. If IYR is going down, I want to be short. How I feel about the state of CRE makes no difference because only price pays in the end.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:34 am
i posted a week or two ago that reviewing some balance sheets in CRE shows a bubble arriving in 2012. however, we can still trade SRS. CRE has rallied alot. take a look at MAC . KIM is on the biggest loser list today.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Richard;
If the economy is improving at the rate that the gov claims then we may not see the CRE crash. Pain can be spread over the years…
Here in Cali Asians from the Pacafic Rim are gobbling up CRE and RE. Still a lot of inventory to go but there are buyers out there with LOT of money
Short some more EUR/USD here with both the pair and the spx hitting the top of bearish channels I think it’s time for a pull back.
So far so good. i will be adding more FAZ as I see the S&P going below 1060 with a big volume but with tight stops…
Right now Holding 4000 FAZ at cost $20.75…..
November 5th, 2009 at 11:43 am
You are brave dude! GLTU
November 5th, 2009 at 11:52 am
I have some at 20.89
—— SRS ———- possible HS pattern developing. interesting. have my stop now at my entry point so i can not lose.
Would love to see 46.00 on ERX today before closing it. Will likely add more DZZ today if we see 15.00 or less. Best of luck to all today!
November 5th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Hey Morris, I’d join you on the DZZ trade @15.00. GL.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Cool! I picked up 500 shares yesterday @ 15.00.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
i wouldn’t touch that trade with a 10 foot pole.
good luck though, you never know!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
I know. Best of luck to you
November 5th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Brave trade Morris.. Best of Luck to you
November 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
It’s a very small position right now (just 500 shares) so I’m not too worried about it.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Anitang what are you seeing in the gold short that makes you so sure it’s a good buy….just that a retracement is inevitable? Thanks,
November 5th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Hi Cil,
I believe gold will retrace a bit once it hits 1100. And I have already held a long term position in gold via CEF. For me it is a low risk play.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
thanks, Anitang….wish you the very best!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
“I know. Best of luck to you
”
Hey, This message was replying to Morris, not Flatron!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Cil, good luck to you too
EUR/USD challenging it’s inter day bullish trend lines.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:45 am
There they go *snap*
November 5th, 2009 at 11:51 am
If the bulls cannot support big rallies two days in a row it’s gonna start looking mighty bearish.
loaded up on putties….here.
———- SRS ———– sure feels good to pick the right entry. moving stop up to profit. ive been having a tough time of it lately picking the wrong stocks to short and then getting squeezed out only to have them reverse.
im sticking to short term trades in SRS until we are closer to OPEX
November 5th, 2009 at 11:58 am
yes, you entered in a good place. Nice job. I’ve been going in and out of faz / fas for the past couple of weeks. It is difficult to not sell when it drops, but it seems to keep coming back if you can stomach losses.
Are you watching stocktiger for crossovers, really seems to work for faZ.
http://stocktiger.com/live/faz15.php
November 5th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
i have the stocktiger running for SRS … however, i used the daily chart and 20ma to pick my entry. according to the daily chart this SRS is going to pop.
Financials losing their mojo faster than Idan’s Boca Raton grandfather when he runs out of geritol.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:56 am
LOL……:-)
November 5th, 2009 at 11:57 am
I keep saying if the financials are not leading I’m not following
November 5th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
I agree…we need financial to rally with tech otherwise the market is up for whipsaw
Once XLF breaks $14.05 all hell will break loose….. lets see how that plays out
holding 4000 FAZ at $20.75
Euro retail sales missed big last night. Plenty of EUR/GBP data missing these days. As a result, other than a belief that Trichet is fundamentally more Hawkish than Ben, the whole EUR/USD carry trade makes no sense. GBP/USD, even less. YEN/USD doesn’t make sense either. The only dollar index carry trade that could make a little sense is Canada. AUD/USD makes sense but AUD is not pat of the DXY.
I love it. You can go ahead and place your trade “either long or short.” Also, market up 150 and SRS even. Ha! I love this freakin rigged casino stock market. DON’t trade until we hit 1070 again, then consider going short.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
My thoughts exactly!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
If we had broken past 1065 today it would have exploded to the upside. I don’t see why I would want to short at 1070 if 1065 breaks. The bear channel breaks I’m out of my shorts and moving to a short term long position.
———- ECONOMY RECOVERING? ——- then why are they keeping interest rates at this level, extending EI benefits …. etc. etc. this market action is a mess too. have to be honest, im very confused as to what is going on with the economy. in our area things are crappy.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
In my area things are getting better-they are better than jan 2009 for sure but far worse than dec 2007.
I have noticed you have been playing SRS on a regular basis, and beside your conviction that CRE is going to implode what else do you see in SRS that excites you?
are you still using the nov 2008 high as a frame of reference?
November 5th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
im trading URE SRS because its liquid. and it is moving.
im not sure if CRE implodes but im pretty sure it does not happen until 2012
November 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
on SRS …. the daily chart has a flattening 50 , rising 20, RSI 51 ,,,, this combination is quite bullish. not 100% for sure but it looks like its going to pop. hopefully im in a trade when it does.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
The economy has nothing to do with the markets, zero, zilch. Get your mind out
of that gutter or it will broke you.
If you are bearish, go to gold. It will benefit if makret tanks or dollar inplodes as i
suspect it will.
Shorting, buying puts just induces rallies. Let them pump their own cash in to
support and watch how fast the rally dies.
u can have horrible jobless, homelessness and drug use while a market out performs
the reality. Zimbabwe markets were the best performs last year while the defacto
econo died and rotted.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
And how do you explain last fall in light of your hypothesis that the market has nothing to do with the economy?
November 5th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
i disagree for the long term on your hypothesis, but for the short term sure
November 5th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Last fall was a deliberate fraud by the big money asses to con trillions in aid
from the taxpayer. The ensuing panic caused massive dumping of stock
and shorting by frightened panic investors. . .
Cramer telling all to sell and yelling about no advance for 5-10 years (unless he
had a book to tought) was just a transfer of wealth to ruin the retirees of the
future and plant the seeds of a short squeeze that paid for a 60% rally. Same
playbook they have used since 1929.
Eventually, these parasites will bleed the taxpayer and the system they foster
dry. Why hire anyone when work can be done by chinese slaves? Why
worry ? Does cancer care if it kills the host? No, it will move on to china
and find new hosts to bleed dry.
Think back. The 80’s and Japan was to rule the world. It did for a short span
till the stock parasites infected them.
In 10/08 wall street had huge inventories of MBS and stocks it could no longer
carry or foist on the public. Solution, get benny to eat it.
BTW, we will have paid for the 1990 S+L fiasco in 2012 so it was time to
pull another bunny out of the fedora.
…I am burned again..LOL….but I am still holding my positions GS(long) and AMZN(short)…let’s see what happens in a couple of days..
November 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Did u sell BAC ?
November 5th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
No….I did not buy BAC, only GS…At least GS is recovering from yesterday drop…now it is almost even..However AMZN…it is a surprise…but I will hold it
November 5th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
If we are within 50 points range in DOW at close then I think we have a game on…if it sold off again, then I am sure Bulls like me will be shitting
SRS pull back on very light volume.
50ma is $10.22 and it needs to power above that level in order to prove
the bullish technicals. its a squeeze play with 20ma $9.86 and 50ma $10.22
November 5th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
stopped out ——- done for the day
good luck all!
ANSWER: if we all knew that in 2012, the world won’t exist, then what happens to the mkt today? most of you would probably say SELL!!! but interestingly, mkt wud rally today. WHY? let me know your thots….
November 5th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
If I knew the world was going to end in 2012, I would sell all of my positions and do nothing other than enjoy wine, women and song til the end of time. I sure as hell wouldn’t indulge in anything that causes the kind of stress that this market causes!
Suddenly being long FAZ doesn’t feel so good anymore.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
still holding on 10 day.
As predicted up big today. Tomorrow we will retest the top at 10100. I am selling now my long position as indicated yesterday. I typically do very well during FED meetings week since it is too easy to read the market (at least for the last 7 months it has been that way I will be 100% cash into tomorrow I will then go long if we trade above 10125 since I am thinking that by expiration we will be at 10400’s at least. One note is that the key level to observe is that double top area, we break that you can bet the house on reaching 10400’s. Fail to break we could retest the short term bottom at 9690’s or so.
did the uup stop trading
Institutions selling S&P downside puts according to Mr. Topstep… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qloHA747hE
Not good if you are a bear.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
not till after december expiration.
Didn’t you just buy puts Idan? Now go long? Which one is it?
November 5th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Very easy, you buy puts.. it goes above 1062.. you get out.. buy longs.. it rallies to 1065.. you get stoppe dout at 1064 with profits… you gotta keep changing based on what happens in the marekt.
Not liking the action at this bear channel trend line , scaled my EUR/USD down and set a stop on my faz.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Stopped out @ 21.77 (entered at 18.00). A profit , but I exit the position grudgingly , I don’t like the bullish scenario but withe spx breaking the bear channel I have to give it respect.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Man, I would be exiting that position with great joy given that you made a 20.94% profit on the trade!
November 5th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
I think today’s action is a bit much and prices in whatever we see tomorrow on jobs.
What happened to the uup short squeeze
November 5th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
what the crap uup up alot or is my broker not right
November 5th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
gap fill? your broker is correct.
November 5th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
shooting star to 22.92
The market just tilted its hand with the retraction of this small run up we just had. Going short SDS, TZA, FAZ. Im backing up the truck on these in advance of tomorrow terrible jobs number