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05
Nov
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2:30pm
Market did set itself up somewhat bullishly into tomorrow, but notice that there wasn’t really a market direction all day (after the first pop). We are in a wedge formation here (i’ll post the chart later today), and until we break out of it, i can’t put a strong position on the table. We will have to see what jobs data does to the market tomorrow.
2:20pm
WOAHHHH Dollar SPIKE… loving it! This should hold the market to the downside.. here..I have not shorted this market yet… but i will if we get a strong down draft. Dollar broke it’s descending wedge resistance (assuming it holds it’s ground)
2:00pm
The last 20-30 minutes do provide some bearishness to the market again, you can only go short upon a break of 1060 though.
1:18pm
I have some friends who went long with a stop at 1058.50… I agree, it looks like we could be headed a little higher here if we hold this level a little longer.. XLF long might look good to. This is an anticipation trade, we have not broken out of the wedge resistance yet… which lies around 1065.
12:18pm
S&P still holding that 1061 level… tough to tell… financials still holding up slightly… this is going to be a tough one to tell which side is going to win.
12:08pm
Hedge fund is now buying a half position in STEC at these levels 14.40-14.50… and is hoping to buy another half a little lower… this stock is now oversold… and even though it can still fall to the mid-high 12s.. it’s worth starting to take a small-medium size position in this.
12:04pm
USO breaking down a triangle formation is definitely going to help the bears out here:
11:55am
The market pulled back right under 1061.. now you can either go long or go short with a stop… very easy trade, very low risk. I went ahead and placed PUTS due to the fact that I still believe this correction is likely to continue. But who knows… I bought SWG WY at $1.01.
10:56am
The xlf has broken back above it’s megaphone (widening triangle) formation, which now makes it slightly more bullish.. you are welcome to take a stab on the long side.. with a relatively tight stop… the SPY looks a little stronger than the XLF.. but a break above 14.26 would confirm a strong bullish trend in the XLF. Tech is much stronger than the rest.. with GOOG breaking the resistance line I posted yesterday.
10:36am
Stopped out oout of my SPY puts as we are breaking 1061 (loss 6 cents).. you can take a long with a stop here.. GS is a buy over 174.
10:15am
Today’s action is very very weird… we have had so many flares and divergences in prices from the ask/bid… very weird stuff.
9:55am
Taking an SPY position at SWG WB right at $1.97, as explained last time.. i think 1061 is strong resistance.. and we are approaching it .. i like holding some puts here. East stop if it rallies above it and i’ll reverse to calls.
9:49am
Stopped out of SPY position at 105.95 (-80 cents Loss) on a 1000 share position… this basically takes away my gains from yesterday. A break of yesterday’s highs will be incredibly bullish for the markets.. but until then, i wouldn’t be placing bets. You can go short there with a nice easy stop.
9:41am
If you’re still holding shorts on SPY like me.. you want to see a solid break of 1052 level on the SPX and really on the green line of support like we did yesterday. That would make me want to add PUTS on the market as well. Otherwise bulls want to see another bar after 10am over 1052 and then a break of 1061.
9:29am
The employment news gave us a little pop here right before the market opens…we’re opening ABOVE the 1052 level… and so i’m going to be putting a stop at 105.95 on my SPY short at $105.17
1:14am
Video:
Sorry I was only able to put it on social (youtube had problems):
Technical Analysis on November 4th
about UUP today..
Didnt some one mention heavy call activity for the front month contracts and today we had the unusal spike .
Insider trading at its best…its funny they are booking people for small 10M-20M amount
November 5th, 2009 at 10:55 pm
that was on fast money last night.
fishy, fishy.
I will not make any trades tomorrow except to close some of my AXP puts (34 to 36 strike), and hang on to NOV 37 AXP PUT. I will be focused on finding the stock that should go to zero on Monday. I will also monitor the financial sector, and if I see something that interests me on the short side, I will buy SKF at any cost.
November 5th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
I’m holding FAZ and stalking more. Will be interested in your thoughts tomorrow, as always.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Methinks todays 200 point padding was to protect a big negative job loss
and to accomplish the obvious squeeeze.
All asset classes in bubble state. Everything is up and that can’t go on
much longer.
BTW Geitner invited bloggers to discuss economy and market direction:
For real. . . .
http://acrossthecurve.com/
Guy was on bnn.ca speaking of his sales pitch from treasury.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
I think I have found the stock that should go to zero on Monday, but I don’t think I can short that stock and it won’t make sense to buy puts on it either (and no, it’s not GS
).
I will buy SKF calls instead, as I speculate that the shock level it causes should be half as decent as Lehman. Positioning for Monday.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
C’mon, give us a clue at least ?
Is this the real fritz? Whisper it in zee’s ear !
November 5th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Fritz,
I found a stock/ETF too that will go to the moon on monday
November 5th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
Here. I’ll share this goldmansucks article with you if you’ll just tell zee to whisper the prize stock to me after you whisper it to him after…after. Oh hell. Just make a filthy killing on it and then split the goods with all of your ST cronies.
But here’s the article wh/ makes for a good bedtime read…
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/is-goldman-sachs-controlling-washington/16198
November 5th, 2009 at 11:54 pm
I guess he’s referring to this post?:
By Bradley Keoun
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) – Citigroup Inc. and JP Morgan Chase & Co. are hoarding cash as if another crisis were on the way.
Citigroup has almost doubled its cash to $244.2 billion in the year since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, the biggest such stockpile of any U.S. bank. The lender, which last year came so close to a funding shortfall it had to get a $45 billion government infusion, is under pressure from the Treasury Department and regulators to keep more money on hand for emergencies, even as markets improve.
The caution, which may help restore confidence in the financial system, offers little comfort to shareholders, who can expect to see shrinking returns as banks put money into liquid investments that yield one-twelfth the interest rates of loans.
Idan,
Just wanted to say thanks for all your hard work and I hope you are getting enough rest.
November 5th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
I will echo that. Some guy insulted Idan today. If traders get that emotional when a guy offers free advice they shouldn’t be trading.
November 5th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
Idan is a great, kind, and noble guy like many wonderful traders in StockTock. He helped so many people for free advice in his busy schedule. because Idan is a great trader so people trust him and listen to him so much. When he was wrong, people lose money. However, nobody in stock market can be 100% right. We need to take his/their advice for consideration and know they could be wrong. The final decision is ours. We should be responsible for our own act.
If we hire profesionals to manage our moeny. 2% capital plus 20% from gain in addition, they only manage money with >$1 million dollors more. We all should thank Idan and other traders in this site for their help.
In addition,
November 5th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
I second that.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
I third that. . . but noble ? Don’t put him in company with that big eared
moron charlie, lol.
I’m with you guys. My little options trading account is up 50% since late Sept, thanks in large part to Idan’s identifying probable support and resistance on the S&P and suggesting where to set stops. If you’re losing big, I suggest you buy a good book on money management — and emotional management, while you’re at it.
November 5th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
if that is true i hope you click on the donate to idan button once and a while.
November 6th, 2009 at 12:50 am
shill
November 6th, 2009 at 8:53 am
nerd
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