3:20pm
You can go short at $104.10 as I believe that would be the level where the bears push this market down below the bearish flag support.
3:13pm
We have a few H&S formations on a lot of 5 minute charts.. but bond yields are rallying quite significantly before tomorrow’s meeting. We can still move higher unless the green support bear flag line breaks, but this action that we have seen these past 2-3 days is not that similar to past sell offs. In the past we started down and rallied 0.75-1.5%… today we started down went up and came back down…
3:03pm
Bear Flag marked on 5 minute SPY by the two green lines I have drawn… things don’t look as bullish anymore.. again 1023 looks good to me, Go short upon break of the green support line:
2:30pm
Stopped at 104.59 with 19 cents profit (not much but it’s 190$). I can see this market falling to 1023 before we move higher… but in any case i’m not playing the market either way right now.
2:20pm
Now keeping a 20 cent trailing stop… and letting it run.
2:05pm
Now i’m raising the stop to $104.55, as SPY… while i’m not sure if this market is bouncing a lot higher (we might need to see 1020-1025 beforehand) a trailing stop means no way to lose money.
2:00pm
I’m raising the stop to 104.42$ on the SPY.. hence now i’m in profit no matter what.
1:40pm
GS is potentially setting up for an inverse H&S here… i’d be buying ONLY upon a break of my blue neckline:
1:21pm
The last 30 minutes of action looks like a bull flag… but who knows if it’ll roll over… just keep the stop under 104 and you got both 50 and 20 sma 10 minute moving average to support you… I have faith that the market can still push higher as the bullinger bands widen a little.
1:12pm
Sorry forgot to say, my stop on the SPY position lies slightly under 104.. that means that even if i get stopped out i’m up for the day because of my intra day AAPL play.
12:43pm
I went ahead and bought about 1000 shares of SPY at 104.40$…also if the XLF breaks 14.20 it’s a strong buy.
12:38pm
We’ll that’s definitely a break… if you were in it.. good for you.. people who are out of it.. wait for some type of pull back. Maybe to 104.40
12:33pm
Well we are trading above the wedge, you can go ahead and place a long… i’m actually going to wait for a 2 bar break on this one.
12:27pm
The market has been trading in a descending triangle (wedge) for the past 3 days… which means that we are likely to get a spike up soon.. you can go long above resistance…
12:19pm
We just hit the target… of 186… i’m putting a tight stop at $186.10 and letting it run if it doesn’t hit it.
12:14pm
STOP now at $186.85… again as long as you have a winning stop it doesn’t matter if you get stopped out because you’re making money anyway.
12:10pm
AAPL short stop now at 107.05$ at a profitable position…
12:05pm
AAPL is about to break a triangle formation downward at 187.20… and it’s target will then be around 186$. Short at $107.10 STOP $107.35
11:32am
I’m not touching this market… i don’t know where we’re heading yet… the whole action from yesterday’s low to where we are at loooks like a bear flat to me… but i want to see us reach 1023 first.
12:36am
The futures are flat, and really I’m not sure yet if the market is ready to rally. It could but until it breaks 1052 to the upside I’m not convinced. At the same time, we hit a low of 1029 yesterday, which is not the 1020-1025 range that I expected. My inclination points to a market that would start weak but reverse higher once the 1020-1025 range is reached. I then expect a more significant bounce to around 1052.
Here’s an SPX 120.. to show you a possible fib target at 1022.50-1023… with the 50% retrace at the 1052 level. Also something to note, when we were crashing in early 2009, 50% fib retraces were most common.
Good news for the bears: SPX 1014 – 1020 support band is not that far away.
Bad news for the bears: The fractals look way too similar to July 8 – 10.
The expectation now is for the market to go up for the next few days. The surprise is for the market to fall off the cliff within one day (FOMC announcement tomorrow). I wouldn’t bet my house on a crash, but I wouldn’t go all long either.
Looks like a bullish falling wedge on the SPX 30 minute from Thursday. If this were the case the target is indeed the 1025 area that many are calling for the final bounce then a breakout into the 1040s, target is the low 1060s. That would make a nice ‘A’ wave of [ii] in the elliott wave picture.
There it goes as Idan has pointed out. I took some profits on my shorts. I expect a wave [ii] to take us back 20 points or so.
Of course we could get surprised!
More Reason To Buy and Hold Gold or PM Stocks . . .
CBOT & NYSE have just changed rules to allow PM’s as security vs margin. Used to be
only USD or Tbills/Bonds.
This is ground breaking and telling us something major.
What’s PM?
PM=Precious Metal Stocks
Delete the stock part.
new position on sco–stops at 12.75
more sco
—- SRS ——- this is my last shot at it. stop is in at $10.18
if it does not push higher now… im done for today.
STOPPED OUT…. all done for the day
GOOD LUCK ALL!
Richard – I am eyeing SRS … however there is too much of chop here … am waiting for a break of 11 to goto 13 … would look at something else till then …
SRS is not a good short at this point. It moves side way for last several weeks. I like FAZ much better.
im watching the biggest loser on hulu.
Yesterday I stated that I would not enter fresh shorts Monday or Tuesday. This pop is what I was warning about.
I will delay entering fresh shorts until Friday.
Finally my UCO is up and I can take a breather…
are you looking at the trends? maybe right if it breaks 14.20 range.
I was looking at the 13.20 range which it tested three times since wed 28th and could not break it and today it crossed the 200DMA on the 10min.
who knows where it goes
agreed, but taking sco until it gets to your point. stops in.
are we going to 2100 on the s and p now
lol. I agree. By 2028, we will likely get there.
Inflation adjusted …sure we will
Ok thats iit I am calling the end of correction and its time to move higher
Who else is buying GS? I already picked up some GS calls this morning. I am considering buying more.
Why GS? There is a gap that needs to close at $169.75, you don’t think it will close it I guess.
Gaps don’t always have to be closed.
True but they don’t always stay open either, so it’s a 50/50 chance. I’m just saying do you have another reason for buying at this level.
Theoretically, we are 1% and 1 day away from the bottom in the U.S equity markets. In the end.. this is just probability and math.. but were just not breaking 1020. You have to ask yourself.. maybe we’re just not going to retest those levels.
I think it’s too early to rule out the 1020 level, specially with the fed tomorrow and employment on Friday. It’s possible that we’ve already seen a short term bottom here but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My other reason for buying at this level is that it could lock in a “buy” signal on the stochastic, RSI, and DPO (detrended price oscillator). My target for GS is $176, after which I will be out.
And don’t bet against King Market Manipulator
Just kidding
lmao
I see, good call so far, good luck with it and thx for your input.
looks good on 10 day chart for faz, along with 10 day on GS (175.4?).
Me… 100 at 170.55
If i remember correctly didn’t we run up then sell off even on positive news from the fed,the same could happen tomorrow.
the market seems to have no direction.
we need an enema
I am new, hello.
OK, the dollar is up, stocks want to sell, FOMC will do nothing except, maybe, say we will tighten. I do not see much bullish action out there, but I do not like the action today. It wants to go lower, but gets rejected. Hell, auto sales were not so good either, if Buffet did not do that deal the transports would be leading us lower. I guess I am wondering if I should cover my shorts, I am very bearish, but not stupid to the market in front of me. Thoughts?
right now big struggle between the bulls (the fed) and the bears the retail investor.
I’m seeing a lot of mixed signs. UUP has broken the major down trend line that started in March to the upside. We’ll likely need a back test of that trend line to form the right inver. H&S. Looking at that charts I would say that we’ve seen the top already. But the dollar is up today along with both gold and oil.
I don’t get it.
I don’t disagree that the top is possibly in, however, we might have one more leg up because the bears are failing to push below a key swing low made on October 2nd. You have to ask yourself: will the bears have enough power to break through key support levels at 1020(you know they will be very big buyers at these levels + 38.2% retracement + oct2nd support).
Anyone who knows weak stock that are ready to tank, please share. Someone today talked about FUN which has tanked 20% today. If you know any weak stock like this please tell us so we can have them in watch list.
KGC kinross gold corp only major gold that is down today, big holdings in
hostile south american climes.
critical area on sco–stops in place
I am closing my TNA position right now (1000shares). No need to be greedy here. Bought at 35.76 closing at 37 for 1240 gain in 1 day. I still there is more upside but greed is not good. Might buy a smaller position into the close just for the fun of it (thinking of 200 shares or so).
Can someone look at ICE for me. Excellent earnings this AM…..no negatives! Sold off hard, but bounced off of the 50 SMA. I added 500 shares at 96.84 this AM, so I’m still in the green. I now hold 1500 shares. However, this thing is moving with the market rather than independent of the market, so I’m a little spooked at the moment. Anyone?
Good ‘ol sell on news. That’s perhaps it.
Yeah, always happens to anything I own! Fritz, your thoughts from a TA perspective?
102.81 on 10 day. Questions on 1 month. You were swing trading……………..Stochastics and MACD look good for a hold, but depends on your period. Would defer to Idan and Woo–take profits and look for new position. Positive is good!
————- FUN ———- i just FING love it. its down 24% today. the person who took my puts yesterday is having a good laugh. sold them for $0.70 each. they are now $3.00 each.
Have seen that happen to me a lot too – hate it when it happens
Idan,
Do you see aapl carving a head & shoulder top on the 5 min chart, considering to buy puts if it breaks $188.
I would only start buying PUTS upon a break of 187.60 to the downside… and buy calls upon a break of 189.10.
Appreciate your thoughts Idan.
Last position on SCO–stops in.
sold 10% on 20, with profit–keeping rest for now.
will likely close ERX @ 44.00 if we see it again today
Yup good thinking…44 seems to be resistance
Are you still in uso?
Yes I am ….5800 shares total
I meant uco
what is your average? Also, do you have a sell point on SPX (1120)? Further, do you have capitulation–seems like you bought these stocks at a much higher level.
I am up $950 as I type on that trade (UCO 14.08)….if this drops into half then I will capitulate
.
This is a hign conviction trade from me so I am holding till oil reaches 85 or so…I may get into it again if OIL breaks 85
Trying to understand–see the uco hitting the 14.20, then possibly fading (daily)–just my chart. Don’t know your time frame for holding, but personally making short term trades.
By the way, do you have a short term bottom for buying UCO? I am looking at charts, don’t know at this point?
If I had anymore funds I would have added to my UCO position around 13.25.
I will sell 1/3 when it reaches around 15
Just picked up a medium sized position of BGZ. Got a feeling we sell off hard the last half hour.
WTF is going on with RIMM????!!!!
Does that make sense to anyone?
way over sold my man! Where can you find companies which are growing at 40% annually!
C is postive for the day AFTER a long time- I think it was down for the last 9 days ot so
I wonder if it’s a good short at 60?
closed 400 shares of ERX @ 43.70 (up 6.59% from my entry @ 41.00 yesterday); +$1080.00
I would call today very bullish for the spy, but then again what do I know?
I think it’s up from here.
haha what a day. i made 2 cents on my SPY calls, and i made like 5 cents on my BAC calls. lol. at least i didn’t lose money.
no positions into tomorrow. i think aapl might be setting up for a big down day tomorrow though…
woo, why do you think tomorrow will be big down day?
i just got stopped out of both of my positions. i’m not really leaning either way into tomorrow. no positions, all cash.
the market needs to push above the long term trend line. it needed to consolidate in this area to give bulls hope, and scare bears a bit. great market manipulation. i have no bear or bull bias right now, but i think we’ll rise in the morning to help explain the peaks of today.
I had calls on the only major gold stock down on day. Lesson learned in
staying with market leaders.
KGC kinross could be the short of the decade, lol.
if KGC gets to 12 back up the truck.
i hate it when you think you’ve got a great spot, and it turns out to not be, or a major trend line or fib breaks. i think some stocks wait for me to purchase before breaking lol. good times.
Expectation is for AAPL to go up tomorrow, but if it surprises to the downside, it could really hurt AAPL bulls (like how RIMM bulls got hurt?)
an other fked up day for me… I shorted GG around 39 i hope it goes down tomorrow
FOMC meeting, what will happen?
As of the close, here is what I am seeing and expecting into tomorrow:
DJIA – Stochastic, RSI, DPO locked in “buy” (oversold), and on top of that it is near the lower Bollinger Band; suggesting a bounce tomorrow
S&P – Stochastic, RSI, DPO locked in “strong buy” (very oversold) signal, and on top of that it bounced off the 4-month MEV (moving ‘expected value’) yesterday like it did on July 8. Must be scary for the bears now since it has potential to go all the way to 1065 in one bar.
Nasdaq – First to break out of the falling wedge, what more can I say?
VIX – did not lock in a “sell”, but did close back inside the BB. We could be looking for further drop in volatility tomorrow, or a sudden spike up.
Dollar – “sell” signal triggered (what do we expect after a week or so of strong spike up?)
FOMC announcement tomorrow could provide us with that catalyst. I am expecting the market to shoot up. I still kept my hedge short shares in the event that the market surprises us to the downside (via a crash, that’s the only way to destroy all the signals). Personally, I am not betting on a crash.
I currently hold SSO, DOW, GS, JPM, and HD call options in addition to hedged shorts held over from last week.
If SPX 1080 gets taken out this week or next Monday, you could be staring at 1120 or higher by end of the month. Bears need to defend SPX 1075 like there’s no tomorrow.
interesting. thanks for the comments.
there was a possible flare up to 105.5+ on spy. we’ll see if that plays out or not
woo, what are some of the books that taught you how to do all the fibs and projections? So far I can only do simple fibs, and although I have a system that has worked well for me, I’d like to learn other perspectives also.
(LOL, if I do that I might actually destroy my trading account by becoming too complicated.) Just thinking out loud.
haha. projections are a dangerous game to play. i start with strict EW definitions and then work from there. i’ve read a lot of different websites, articles, and general books. there are tons of variations, but i like the general rules that almost all agree are the basic definitions of EW. it took me a while before i really got used to liking and trusting my own projections. and it helps to have an overall EW count before making any projections. the shorter picture always needs to fit in with the bigger picture, and vice versa. each projection also takes time to fill in to be supported or denied. it’s a lot of work but i think it pays off when you nail it, and i’ve lucked out by getting a pretty good amount of short term tops and bottoms while trading properly and being patient. i would say the best advice is to look at previous wave patterns and get used to recognizing how you can get potential end points on unfinished waves. sorry really vague answer…
I am new to EW so still learning. My philosophy has always been that I don’t take trades with less than 90% chance of a success, and I would not hesitate to take profits when I see something I don’t like, even if it means missing out on possible further gains. Discipline pays off.
Also helps by keeping things simple sometimes.
yeah going into fib projections will complicate things a lot more, but it will also give you more to take into consideration. sometimes if you’ve got something that works, it’s better to stick with it till it breaks haha.
charting and TA is only 50% of the work, the other 50% is trading, which is just as difficult a discipline. you’ve been nailing some great traeds so far fritz. keep it up=P pm me if you have any specific EW questions.
Woo, do you know any source (website, books) that teach an amateur person like me how to count EW waves?
you can even start with wikipedia. get the basics down first, then go from there. don’t try to take on everything at once or it’ll get overwhelming and not make sense. most important thing is to get started on charting though, and start seeing what works and doesn’t work for you based on your trading strategy.
Woo many us would like to know what a flare is?TIA
ok….here we go….maybe i am insane, but here is my mentality of why flares play out.
first thing. a flare is basically a hammer on the 1-5 minute charts. you see a huge candle wick down south.
hopefully i don’t need to explain how a candle is formed.
but specifically for a hammer (which is an initial bull sign), what happens is a large amount of shares are bought at one time, and the market is brought down to a point where stops are taken out, then the market is brought back up to near the peak of where that 1 minute or 5 minute or daily candlestick point started, creating a hammer.
this generally means market manipulation.
so step by step:
1) hammer (flare down) = bull (short term)
2) hammer = market manipulation down
3) in order to maximize profit on the wiped out stops at the extreme low, they also manipulate the market higher very quickly, to sell at maximum short term profit (so quick deflation first, quick inflation after)
4) due to overinflated short term prices because of market manipulation, prices DEFLATE
and end up going back to the flare or bottom of the hammer, before correcting to normal prices
it’s like a rubber band that you stretch out.
when you push it down, it shoots up, then shoots down before going back to normal.
so on a daily chart if you see a daily hammer, then that market manipulation gives you the sense that they want to push the market higher to maximize the stocks that were bought at that extremely low price where stops were clustered. so the next move should be higher, so market manipulators can get out for a nice scalp. well on a 1-5 minute, you get the deflation, inflation, then deflation all occurring within the span of an hour, or that day.
some things to note. if a flare (or hammer) happens near the end of the day, remember that it has all AH and PM to play out, so don’t really pay attention to those because there is not much of a daytrade/scalp opportunity and may not play out. if the flare/hammer is not that large, then it might not be enough to offset the current movement of the market. e.g. – imagine a giant wave in the ocean as the market movement, if a small wave (market manipulation) comes across it, the big wave is not really affected. if a bigger wave comes upon it (larger flare north or south), then it has the ability to disrupt the market movement short term.
hope this makes sense of the hammer/flare, short term, long term, and why the wick of the hammer candlestick generally plays out if it is early to midday. again, this is not an exact science.
thank you for that very interesting descript . . .
have been around stock for long time but was not aware of that fast
scalp (far more evident on repeat basis on toronto exchange)
perhaps you can do a morning or after noon tutorial/s. i know i would
benefit.
While i don’t live and die by t/a nearly all fund managers do so we best
get onside.
BTW, what program or charting service is it you use or follow to
retrace in real time?
currently mainly use stockcharts.com and have their real time service for stocks. also use think or swim and occasionally glance at zecco, but don’t really like zecco very much.
i don’t know if i have the time to actually put on tutorials with my day job taking up most of my time as it is….and maybe after 1 too many tutorials i won’t be needed anymore hahaha!
like you said, the big money leads the market. majority of traders are market riders, not market movers. glad what i wrote made sense to you and you see the pattern too Palladin. it’s not something that i use to make my trades with, but i’ll use it in support of conclusions made based on other TA. good luck with your trades!
Fritz – can you elaborate on these buy and sell signals … what timeframes / setting do you use and what do you count as oversold and very sold ?
TIA …
Woo/ Idan. How could I learn to do day trading with options. I know it is risky but I like to risk and go for it. I have bought calls/puts sometimes in th epast but usually it did not make any money for me although the stock went the right direction. I guess there some techniques in option day trading thta I do not know about.
There’s actually no easy way to do it…. we don’t just day trade with options… we hold the options until we dont think it’s worth holding anymore… sometimes it’s a day trade, sometimes it’s a short swing trade. We use fib retracements to play it.
Another way to try and play it is to look for the most important resistance and support lines and once they break play the options…
Idan, Do you mean fib retracements and support/ resistance works for option price movment or you mean I should apply them on stock price? I have seen days that a stock goes higher and then the call of that stock goes lower. I know it has to do with volatility or somthing else that I don’t know about. I guess there should be some secrets that I like to learn about. Any idea?
He means the stock price.
Google ‘Black–Scholes’ if you are interested in how options are priced.
The most important factors are time until expiration and volatility..
Pick up some option books & read investopedia.com..
How do you apply TA to options? You apply it it to share price. What you do is say you see 170$ is strong resistance on GS.
Therefore you think GS is going up to 175$. What you do is buy 175$ GS calls..
Hmm. those that sold the news (or shorted) EMS today on e/r were very wrong. Wow what a turnaround. 16% red to 7% green
STEC tanking more in AH on e/r and guidance.That knife is razor sharp.
Idan, SP500 final 20 minut go up, and do you still belive SP500 will retest 1020 – 1025 tomorrow? only based on support and resist or if you have other bases to support your belief?
I am not shorting a hyperinflated stock market with lots of worthless bonds sitting on the sidelines just waiting to move into equities or precious metals. We are going to have a blast in gold to 1150 and silver to 19. imho 7 I believe dow and S&P will remain flat with slide upwards pressure due to falling dollars. Next bubble t
wasn’t finished….. Next bubble to pop will likely be the bonds. Strong upmove in TMV in the recent days. Today it really wanted to run. Looking forward to more and mores speculation regarding rising interest rates.
Well just got home for the day job. I see that the dollar decided to fall a bit more then I had anticipated. Looks like instead of just a back test of the short term EUR/USD 61.8% fib , we are going to back test the long term bullish trend line that was broken.
A recovery of this trend line tonight would force me to unwind my position. I am not overly worried about this atm because so far all we have gotten today was a bounce off the bottom of the bearish channel which I expected (just not quite this strong of a bounce).
I still favor a move down in the EUR/USD to the long term 38.2% fib 1.42742 area. That is the alignment of a couple massive fibs which would provide excellent support for a bounce. It would also coincide nicely with a move to the 1020 area of the spx I believe. This is what I have been playing for and this is what I will continue to wait for. When we get there then , I will reverse to bearish on the dollar and move from FAZ->FAS (well maybe UYG will have to decide at that point).
Formulate and stamp indelibly on your mind a mental picture of yourself as succeeding. Hold this picture tenaciously. Never permit it to fade. Your mind will seek to develop the picture…Do not build up obstacles in your imagination.