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03
Nov
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3:20pm
You can go short at $104.10 as I believe that would be the level where the bears push this market down below the bearish flag support.
3:13pm
We have a few H&S formations on a lot of 5 minute charts.. but bond yields are rallying quite significantly before tomorrow’s meeting. We can still move higher unless the green support bear flag line breaks, but this action that we have seen these past 2-3 days is not that similar to past sell offs. In the past we started down and rallied 0.75-1.5%… today we started down went up and came back down…
3:03pm
Bear Flag marked on 5 minute SPY by the two green lines I have drawn… things don’t look as bullish anymore.. again 1023 looks good to me, Go short upon break of the green support line:
2:30pm
Stopped at 104.59 with 19 cents profit (not much but it’s 190$). I can see this market falling to 1023 before we move higher… but in any case i’m not playing the market either way right now.
2:20pm
Now keeping a 20 cent trailing stop… and letting it run.
2:05pm
Now i’m raising the stop to $104.55, as SPY… while i’m not sure if this market is bouncing a lot higher (we might need to see 1020-1025 beforehand) a trailing stop means no way to lose money.
2:00pm
I’m raising the stop to 104.42$ on the SPY.. hence now i’m in profit no matter what.
1:40pm
GS is potentially setting up for an inverse H&S here… i’d be buying ONLY upon a break of my blue neckline:
1:21pm
The last 30 minutes of action looks like a bull flag… but who knows if it’ll roll over… just keep the stop under 104 and you got both 50 and 20 sma 10 minute moving average to support you… I have faith that the market can still push higher as the bullinger bands widen a little.
1:12pm
Sorry forgot to say, my stop on the SPY position lies slightly under 104.. that means that even if i get stopped out i’m up for the day because of my intra day AAPL play.
12:43pm
I went ahead and bought about 1000 shares of SPY at 104.40$…also if the XLF breaks 14.20 it’s a strong buy.
12:38pm
We’ll that’s definitely a break… if you were in it.. good for you.. people who are out of it.. wait for some type of pull back. Maybe to 104.40
12:33pm
Well we are trading above the wedge, you can go ahead and place a long… i’m actually going to wait for a 2 bar break on this one.
12:27pm
The market has been trading in a descending triangle (wedge) for the past 3 days… which means that we are likely to get a spike up soon.. you can go long above resistance…
12:19pm
We just hit the target… of 186… i’m putting a tight stop at $186.10 and letting it run if it doesn’t hit it.
12:14pm
STOP now at $186.85… again as long as you have a winning stop it doesn’t matter if you get stopped out because you’re making money anyway.
12:10pm
AAPL short stop now at 107.05$ at a profitable position…
12:05pm
AAPL is about to break a triangle formation downward at 187.20… and it’s target will then be around 186$. Short at $107.10 STOP $107.35
11:32am
I’m not touching this market… i don’t know where we’re heading yet… the whole action from yesterday’s low to where we are at loooks like a bear flat to me… but i want to see us reach 1023 first.
12:36am
The futures are flat, and really I’m not sure yet if the market is ready to rally. It could but until it breaks 1052 to the upside I’m not convinced. At the same time, we hit a low of 1029 yesterday, which is not the 1020-1025 range that I expected. My inclination points to a market that would start weak but reverse higher once the 1020-1025 range is reached. I then expect a more significant bounce to around 1052.
Here’s an SPX 120.. to show you a possible fib target at 1022.50-1023… with the 50% retrace at the 1052 level. Also something to note, when we were crashing in early 2009, 50% fib retraces were most common.
Idan – Do you still think BIDU is oversold?
Thanks
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:04 am
Not necessarily… not in the daily scheme of things.. i think it got a bounce and now it can move down further. It wouldn’t surprise me to see it in the 330s if the market gets weak again.
Futures, as well as all Asia and all Europe dropping hard. If we don’t close, down at least 1% Tuesday it will be completely unjustifiable and shocking!
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:31 am
Dow futures down 1.2% and FTSE in london down 2.3% with a clear bias to
downside. London broke key support and banks getting shelled.
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:54 am
Yep. I would think we should close, down 2%+ regardless of where we open or any day trading. If not something smells extremely fishy in Denmark, as the old saying goes.
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:44 am
we are closing down 2% +
idan,
whatcha think…LVS to 13 today? it’s bouncing up and down not wanting to break 14
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:20 am
better yet,
spx to 1020-1025 as your projections? before FOMC tomorrow..we might spike on the news and rally a tad, but prob sell off hard the following day which generally is the direction it takes…day two is usually what it wants to do.
just my 2 cents
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:35 pm
you should look at the channel i put LVS yesterday…
We’ve seen this happen before…. and usually it’s the good old USA and a new push of the dollar down that turns things around and gets all the markets to rise. Just something to consider before counting those chickens.
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:18 am
Appreciate the insight, very well stated. I still think we have a mini crash today, but will be cautious.
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:30 am
I believe it was Fritz that observed that the markets correct overnight/outside of trading hours only to rally from 9:30 – 4. Might be the case again? I dunno. Have to wait and see.
That said, I’m short, so I’m happy to see red. I like Idan’s levels, If I have time I’ll be taking some profits in the 1020’s and/or adding in the 1050’s. But I probably wont have time today.
Good luck to all trading.
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:31 am
of course, at this point “correction” is no longer the term i would use. A “correction” would be a move upward since the primary trend is down.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:08 am
Yes, that was the observation, but that’s only valid between July 10 and October 19. The major decline start date I picked out is October 20, so I wouldn’t count the red futures as correction anymore.
All major declines I attempted at front running eventually turn into 10% – 15% decliners. 1101 – 1007 would be close to that, but I still have a hard time seeing the market breaking 1014 with one push down. Right now my short shares are doing very well, but my call options (8% of my portfolio) are getting killed LOL.
Well, this one was quite shocking for me this am -
India buys 6 billion worth of gold from he IMF…
…”The transaction, equivalent to 8 percent of global annual mine production,”
India Makes $6.7 BILLION Gold Purchase From IMF:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/item.php?&itemid=1125536
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:02 am
indians eat gold and sliver. 150% true, was at a Hindu wedding and they forced all
to eat gold and sliver.
With 10 billion people that’s only a dollars worth of food. The PM is beated into
gold leaf and put on cakes and something they call sweets (terrible taste, yuck!!)
For those interested google it. No jokes about the runs or golden shorts next
morning but i did discover i am allergic to super hot indian food regardless of what it
is coated in.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:10 am
And I thought I had relatively expensive meals! Well, I guess with China having locked up so much gold, India had to hoard some for their toppings or whatever. Surely nothing to do with the USD…
For anybody that may be interested in pattern trading (like me). Here is an interesting concept. This subscription is $95 a quarter with no automatic renewals. Their model uses regular ETF’s. I plan on adding my own twist ( 3X ETF’s). I just joined, and it seems like a stress free ticket to profits. Check it out. http://www.clickcharts.com/Default.asp?SID=MDY and http://www.darwinsfinance.com/leveraged-etf-ticker-symbols/
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:53 am
That was cute (try again). http://www.clickcharts.com/
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:10 am
Hey al. . . your related to the ‘Big Al’s Featurette’ that was on rowan and martins
laugh in?
Just dated myself there, didn’t i?
99% of traders here are kiddie-pool material. The patterns we see about to
unfold here will catch all by surprise. We are going lower, crash mode is being
rigged while we speak. Crash 2.0 = more stimulus=lower dollar =another
phony market rally.
Funny, corp america is cutting jobs, shipping them to china and india to meet
stock expects and ruining the country in the process. The best democracy money
can buy.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:32 am
Hey now, I like being in the kiddie pool. All the fun with none of the risk while I learn how this damn market works.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:35 am
Great point about America’s myopic focus on immediate profits eventually being its downfall. Sad really, that a country that achieved success because it was isolated from the others and had to become self sustaining will end up depriving itself as it seeks out quicker and easier profits in emerging countries. Although, in the greater picture, such fallacies are not surprising for what should still be considered a very young country.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:46 am
Welcome to the “kiddie pool” where the water is always warm and refreshing. ha ha ha
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:56 am
Don’t pee in it, LOL.
OK, i gotta ask, how much wieght did u lose Al? I no its not allowed to discuss losses here LOL. I lost 45# over the last 2 years. . . by trading commods on the London exch.
Serious, lost the weight due to higher blood sug count (not diabetic but was
headed that way) and am now fixated and food crazed . . . it could be the
weed i occ’ly ‘abuse’ to help with my memory loss.
May all your losses be from you girth and the devil not learn of your death
till after you’ve been in heaven for a month– — an old Irish/Yiddish blessing.
Lookit them trying to rig the pig in the premarket. London down 2.6% euro and asia down
similar degree. . . . and the riggers are pumping the negative futures to stave off panic selling.
I feel like Pharoa in Egypt asking “How Long Jesus before you set my shorts free?”
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:17 am
Before everyone starts, j/k above. I know JC would never be a short seller.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:34 am
Of course he would be. The meek shall inherit the Earth, right? Short the big boys and destroy their wealth!
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 am
Honestly, verily i ask of you. . . what stock would Jesus buy or short?
Which hedge fund would employ him? What car would he drive and does
Gucci make sandals?
be short and be strong! good karma
Oh-oh.
The mega pumpers are pulling rabbits out of hats this morning to stave off a potential plunge
of the year club.
Buffett just announced buying BNI at $20 over market. Dow cuts losses in half on warries
bet on america via the rails. Europe still falling but the pump priming of Black and Deck and
buffett may save the bulls here.
Not a single word about how the old guy lost his touch and his stock has under performed the
S&P or that his buy of BNI is a senile move by a guy that wants larger model trains to play with?
Futures losses just cut in half, Trannies soar confirming this market miracle and even oil cuts
its loss in half.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:20 am
Johnson & Johnson cutting up to 7% of jobs
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Johnson & Johnson /quotes/comstock/13*!jnj/quotes/nls/jnj (JNJ 60.10, +0.61, +1.03%) said Tuesday it plans to take a fourth-quarter restructuring charge of about $1.2 billion as part of a cost-cutting program to reduce its global work force by 6% to 7% J&J employs over 120,000 people worldwide.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:20 am
Plus, very little mention of the fact that Johnson & Johnson will be laying off 7% of its workforce worldwide. 7%! (BTW, the stock is up, of course)
Good thing Buffet has that railroad, those 7% will soon be hobos and need a place to sleep and travel round the country. This jobless recovery keeps looking better and better.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:26 am
LewDog Great minds think alike …LOL
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:36 am
Props, Dave, for beating me to the punch.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:51 am
worldwide workforce? Closing its facil in Peterboro ontario after taking
advantage of billions in tax incentives to put facilities there.
Formula. Steal tax benefits from canada and usa then relocate promised
jobs to india and any other slave states.
Bottom feeder politicians here and in the usa stay silent because part of the
‘due process’ was millions donated to their campaigns.
The worldwide job cuts will not involve slaves in china or india.
I think this is how hitler ended up in power. His fiscal backing came from
Ford, GM and IBM to mention a few.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:30 am
I see this as a bold move by Buffet. Especially when he himself sees rail car loads as one of the best leading indicators. Shipping (air, sea, freight and rails) is all VERY DOWN. As this video clearly shows (and mentions Buffet himself!):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rutfPRhqaV0
Futures are heading back up I don’t think the Buffet buyout will have much impact.He already owned 34% of the railroad to begin with.
The EUR/USD plunged last night breaking through the 61.8% fib. It then this morning bounced off the 76.4% fib. That’s why your seeing a bit of a recovery in the futures. A back test of the 61.8% fib is all I would expect before resuming it’s downward slide.
Let me be clear , the EUR/USD has lost is bullish trend it’s had since March ‘09. The first fib of that whole bullish move is the 23.6% @ 1.44170. We are currently at 1.46644 , that is a long way to drop. The short term 76.4% fib it bounced off this morning I don’t think has any chance of holding.
The drop from 1.46644 -> 1.44170(minimum) is the short I’m looking for. I expect it to line up with the spx going to 1000 area. If those two events line up I will unwind my short positions for the bounce to come.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:33 am
Sure enough UUP reversed back to 22.70 but should find support here dont you think?
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:16 am
I honestly don’t chart the dollar ETF’s. I trade the currencies directly. So I really can’t comment on how the EUR/USD pair lines up with UUP chart wise.
Another one to the pink sheets.
CITGQ.PK
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:57 am
Zee, which bork would not allow you a short on CIT ? If its optionable its shortable
my a/c at TDWater would not allow but Interactive and Etrade did not even create
a delay.
Not being a smart ass but if TD is anti short its time to move my massive a/c from
them.
I noticed the same thing when i shorted COCO. Clearly a buy side borker.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:05 am
NYSE Stocks that have received TARP funds and in general and should be non-shortable and you’ll always find exceptions. Why would the government want some short sellers to kill a stock of which they put money in?
I work at a prop shop, so I don’t know ‘who’ my broker is. I do know I have access to some of the finest pieces of trading equipment. (Sterling 250$/month, TradetheNews $400/month).. if my firm, who employs 1200 traders around the globe can’t.. I don’t think a retail investor on IB can.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:45 am
Good to know. I am the prime minister of canada, this afternoon i am having
lunch with the Pope.
My mother is the flying nun.
My fault zee, i asked. Won’t bother asking if you are lying or just deluded.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:23 am
I was actually giving careful consideration to your views. But companies that received TARP funds are non-shortable? I have been in and out of AIG shorts multiple times. Methinks the emperor has no clothes.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:08 pm
You can also short BAC, JPM, and all sorts of other companies that have received TARP funds. I have done it, so I don’t know why zee said you can’t short TARP recipients.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
because if you haven’t noticed Zee is full of shit…
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Zee, master trader and insider he is. . . . harks back to the no short rules
of a year ago and long since withdrawn. You can even naked short all them
tarp traps.
Z it don’t matter if you work for the Queen or a prop desk. . . this is basic
knowledge, not brain surgery. In future, if in doubt email my dog and he
can bring you up to date on SEC bullits.
FWIW Zee was snippy and doubting of Fritz that has passively taught me more about position jockeying and directions than i could ever thank him for. Fritz has been helpful and humble and i thank him for putting up with jerks like me and others.
I have shorted high volume penny stocks on the TSE without borrows or
hassles, tarp or not. It seems to depend on the broker you are using.
I will pick up a few more calls @ SPX 1014 – 1020 if we get there today. I am holding my hedged shorts. Orders in, I will be gone for most of the day.
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:00 am
Where u holding your shorts? LOL, will tell your female staff they are safe for the
day.
I like ADY the chinese dairy with an american name as a short. Now watch my borkers say no borrow.
I told you guys we will open gap lower this morning that is why I bought FAZ before the close yesterday. I just sold my FAZ, I will look and which way market is going to decide whether I should buy FAZ or FAS. My overall view about this market as I said yesterday is that we do not have a sustain move in either direction, so no matter you are long or short book your profit and look quick and wait for another opportunity.
I sold TWX & PG out of my portfolio for a +100 profit to average down on my SPY call options. They’re down 33% from last Thursday..
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:07 am
Zee, Are you holding your RIMM calls?
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:14 am
Yes. Hoping for a rally next week to 65.
Dec RIMM 80 @ .33
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:25 am
Great timing yesterday. I wanted to pick some calls but I was on my $ limit and did not want to break the rule.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Thanks, Zee, helpful information.
Zee, bought 100 Dec SPY 115 calls @ .29 I like the risk/reward for a year-end rally. Gotta hedge both ways, eh?
grand morning. loaded up a bit on more calls at the bottom. up now. will sell for profit if my stop hits. there are some large flares to the north that may not have played out, but this is on a different platform, and i need to see if it’s trustworthy or not.
bac is gaining some nice steam making me thinking financials may gain ground and help push market up above the 1042-1043 area. looking for possible exist around 1050-1051 (unless i stop out)
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:01 am
have to be careful because nothing significant has broken to the north, and nothing significant has broken to the south. it’s neither a bull or bear bias for the day as of yet.
nap time.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:04 am
yesterday we crossed the long term trend line to hit a fib point. there’s a chance we might not cross that line today. i think it’s around 1048. if you’re in a call/long position, you need to be careful there. i may raise my stops if it gets near there, or sell a half position.
Both up and down flares on SPY this morning. Top reached, now let’s see if it heads toward the one pointing to 102.5.
i bot some TNA looking for the wave 2 bounce.
———— SRS —————- as expected , i slept in a bit
7am in the West.
my $10.18 target hit and filled my order. PLACING MY STOP AT $10.08
flare down to 103.8 spy.
Hey Palladin. Some of your posts are a little interesting (#8) but the rest of your replies are rude and abrasive.
Why not step away from your machine for a few minutes and try being a bit more civil when you return? What keeps ST members returning is the supportive atmosphere.
thanks.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:31 am
agree Valerie, everyone please just post pertinent trading information and the odd joke and keep smiling
nobody gets every trade right so jabs are not going to encourage the free flow of information necessary to make ST great.
don’t risk more than you can afford to lose and use stops if you cant sit here all day. remember, stops can’t be trusted wholly so its best to limit your positions if you cant watch the tape.
I still have the 4000 QID that I’ve had for a while plus the 400 ERX that I picked up @ 41.00 yesterday as a shorter term trade (will likely close it today). Best of luck to all!
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:26 am
ERX is a good bet. I would have bought it too if I had some funds
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:36 am
both positions are green on the day right now; amazing!
idan,
where do you see LVS today? 13? better yet, spx to 1020-1025 as your projection
FOMC tomorrow..might be slow heading in and a pop right afterwards, but generally day 2 action dictates the market
———– SRS ———– as stated for the past few days i expect SRS to consolidate in the $10.20 to $10.35 area before making a breakout from its price channel. of course i have no idea which way it will go for certain. just a bias to the upside based on daily indicators. it is in this consolidation now. USE STOPS
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
50ma $10.27 20ma $9.85 (averages flattening)
daily RSI 51 (just over 50 is the POP zone)
in order to get more bearish on the market SRS 20ma needs to point up steeply and more preferably cross through the the 50
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
The Dollar could fool everyone …
Just as Foreign countries are diversifying out of the Dollar … just as the Dollar’s carry trade is being overdone, the Dollar is poised to make an upside run.
Take a look at today’s chart and what do you see?
The Dollar just started to break above its 8 month resistance line. At the same time, its Relative Strength has been trying to move above a resistance line for 7 months … until yesterday when it broke out above it.
Granted, the RSI is still not very strong, but if it starts to trend up and can make it above 50, then the Dollar could catch fire on the upside. Right now, our Accelerator is a strong positive indicating that the RSI should move up higher from here.
If we get a significant up day on the Dollar soon, it could be a game changer because too many investors and countries are on the wrong side, which could initiate a short covering rally.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:53 am
Funny how gold is going up with the dollar and the stock market is barely down on a huge jump in the dollar. SOmething is out of whack and will change quickly as soon as it confuses enough people to make money for whoever is keeping it out of whack.
I would really like to see a full back test of the 61.8% short term fib on my EUR/USD pair , however right now it’s looking unlikely. If not we could see a big red day in the markets. Which would annoy me from the perspective of wanting to increase my leverage short at that 61.8% mark again today (so far I have increased my original position by a factor of 6 on the rips).
I am still playing for the EUR/USD to reach my long term 23.6% fib @ ~1.445 before I start scaling out of my short position.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:55 am
Woot back test time. Just a smidge higher and I can get my trade in for the day.
———- FUN ———- have a GOOD laugh at me. i sold my FUN puts at yesterday’s lows thinking any profit is a good profit, concerned about the oversold conditions, and thinking it could reverse hard……………………. look at FUN now. HA HA FUNny
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:36 am
ouch man. You seem to be having a rough month.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:37 am
Not fun..
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:43 am
this is why im only day trading SRS now. ive been a day early on the sell side and cover side on too many trades. leaving money on the table when im right and losing my %$&&A@ when im wrong. im cooling it for a bit.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Im doing the same with EDZ it’s showing a nice little profit of 0.15 today but nothing special.I hope to hold until the employment numbers on Friday and the Fed announcement tomorrow.I remember last time the fed made an announcement the market rallied then sold off afterwards.
———— SRS ———— doubled position here just above the 50ma Daily price. $10.30
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:47 am
using a manual stop now of $10.16 …………. if you can do this do it. a stop limit order does not always work in quick moving ETFs
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:48 am
SRS is running out of time IMO…… so i expecting a move out of this area soon. one way or the other.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:53 am
STOPPED OUT OF THE WHOLE LOT…….
kids are up.. mom aint… probably the best. gone for a bit. good luck!
A very boring day in the markets.
I’m out for the day.
fellow citizens….time to look at long-term logarithmic chart of NAS….draw a trendline from 2000 peak….you can also take a look at the plunge in sept 2008 and how that violated the rising trendline from 1991 low. happy halloween! by the way….SPX shud be sub 500 by 2010 halloween, that will be the real spooky one
Does anyone know why there is a sudden spike of gold and silver prices today? UUP is up slightly but gold and silver are both breaking out upward… something weird going on?
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:18 pm
looks like Gold and Silver are decoupling from stocks and breaking out. If this continues it is a big change.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
The news was that India has bought a large amount of gold to hedge their bets against the falling US dollar.
India backed up the truck this morning on gold
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:26 pm
Is this a prelude to the dollar resuming its donwtrend ? Only time will tell.
Once the EUR/USD hits 1.47021 we should be all set for a nice sell off into the close of the markets. That is where I will increase my short leverage yet again (if I get the opportunity). The market has so far been completely Unable to show any strength even during this tiny run up of the EUR/USD. leads me to believe we sell off in the markets into close , possible hard.
I will have to see how the pair is lining up when spx hits the 1020 area , that will be the indication to me if or not we head for 1014 for a bounce or 998.
lots of weddings in india this december….
Still in EDZ will try to hold until Friday employment numbers it could hit 10% and the market might react.The Fed announcement comes tomorrow and the last time they met the market sold off..The only other long position i have is DDSS a biotech company that announces earnings on Friday and is launching a new antidepressant drug in January.
I think we are near to get a sizable sell off. Get your trigger ready.
The 4-month MEV (moving ‘expected value’) that supported the July bounce (remember that?) is now at SPX 1028. With the market so oversold for the short-term, this is not going to be easy for the bears.
I am using this correction to buy gold and oil. Last week, I mentioned that I had bought a large position in ABX (Barrick’s Gold). It has paid of handsomely today. Since this correction started, the commodity gold had dropped only about 3% to 4% from its all time highs. Yet, all major gold minimg companies had dropped 20% to 30%. This was a fantastic buying opportunity. Today, with the India news, gold has exploded higher along with mining stocks. Up over $40K on this trade.
Today, I bought SU (Suncor Energy). In this correction, crude oil is 3% to 4% from its highs. Yet, Suncor is down 17%. Its close to its last major low ($32). If crude oil goes up to $85 or $90, this stock will go higher as it has a large oil sand production base. I can take the risk of it falling a further 5% to 10%
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:33 pm
You are up 40k on the ABX trade? The recent low (over the past 2 months or so) was around 34.50 on 10/28 and it is trading around 38.50 now so you would need to have about 10,000 shares (with an initial investment of about 350k) to have a 40k gain. That was a major play for one trade!
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Not if you’re doing it through options.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:53 pm
I’d love to hear how it was done so I could try it myself! I don’t trade options but I’m looking into it and any ideas are helpful.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:18 pm
I want to find out too. Options can make or kill you. So far net net I am negative on options. Its a tricky play …
My best option play was amzn bought at 1 sold at 8.90 overnight. My worst – well too many to list
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:39 pm
I bought 13K of ABX shares. It was a major trade for me. I still have those shares. I think it will go higher. My logic was based on 4 factors.
1. ABX had closed most of its its gold hedges last qtr. This is one of the factors that was holding it down. The market likes unhedged players.
2. It did not participate in the upside runup when gold broke over $1000.
3. Its production costs are not going up. South african gold companies and Kinross have said that their production costs are going up.
4. EPS of $0.54 for last qtr. They will earn more in next few qtrs as gold price goes up. I bought it at $35. The P/E is about 16 or 17. Most other major gold companies have P/E of over 25
5. It was close to its major low (technically a good buying area)
I strongly believed in this trade and bought it
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Awesome work! In the future, please do post these trades in real-time if possible.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Sure. I posted the trade, not the number of shares I bought about 4 or 5 days back.
FYI, today I bought 4000 shares of SU (Surcor Energy) at $32.60. I am more a position trader than a day trader. When the price reaches a sweet spot, I tend to buy (or sell). My logic for buying this stock is simple. Oil is down 2% to 3% from its top. SU is down 17%. They need $80 oil price as it is expensive to produce oil from oil sands. It is also close to its previous major low of $32 (which should act as resistance).
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:04 pm
bought ego at 10.85 yesterday (10,000 shares), sold at 11.92, looking for new position. Yes, Morris–some people have significant monies to play in this market. Decision to buy and sell was based on trendlines.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Blackhawk, I was just asking rocky_40 how the trade was done. If it was not done via options, I was just saying that it was a huge trade (which requires more cajones than I have). I am sharing my current strategies while also trying to learn some new things.
I didn’t ask you anything at all so I’m not sure why you mentioned me in your post. I know that some people here have big portfolios.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
No problem–post just seemed to question his capabilities.
anyone else watching the small triangle on the S and P between 1042 and 1037? – bets on which way it will break out? My guess is south with a small position in SDS, stops are at 1044. If it goes according to plan, ride down to 1025
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
S&p should move up,dollar scaling back oil moving up
aapl is in an intra day triangle, it can break either way. I think there is a bigger chance of an upside break out. I’ll wait to see which way.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:40 pm
aaple is breaking down from its triangle, although it’s very very slow in moving. I had a nice trade on it this morning so I wouldn’t take a high risk trade here. Indicators look over sold though, just waiting to see.
———– SRS ———- fighting for the 50ma again. im taking a small position and using a stop. $10.24. have to go out again. hope i come back and have a green trade. the short ter chart is starting to shape up better.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:38 pm
doubling my position earlier and moving my stop up was clearly an error. SRS now needs to hold $10.25 IMO. short term indicators are strengthening.
I have been really busy lately and not able to post much. I am in cash since the 10050 since we never broke my entry level of 10125 at the double top. I will be going long in about 10 minutes once we hit 9690 or so. The lower band of the upper channel stands there and i do not think it will get broke today (given the Fed meeting tomorrow). I will have a tight stop but I consider it a safe bet. Planning to buy 1000 shares of TNA for this purpose.
ERX holding up well right now
Wow on the gold deal. Seeing a massive short squeeze on PMs as the large broker-banks
are short that complex if we can go by data by Commit of Traders.
Gold stock are underperform metals by huge margin, this is usually a flag of overextended
price of underlying commod.
Buying junk golds, they will over and out perform. AGT or APG.TP TKO.TO RBY
and the longshot here is WTM.TO which is due to report an extension to its drilling finds in
the west timmins camp.
Anyone interested take a look over at http://www.kitco.com on the work they are showin on the perf
of junk golds during the 70’s and 80’s during the last gold rush. They see these junk golds
as potential 25 baggers.
The real long shot ffor the hardcore gamblers here is Breakwater Res BWR.TO and CZN.TO
which look to repeat the ten bag rallies they had in 2005.
BTW sorry to those so upset with some snippy remarks i have made. But some people are
just soooooo full of it. You can guess the rest.
Didn’t hit my target before falling down
ah well. Will have to wait for the eventual retest of the 76.4%
almost 1 million shares just got traded on aapl, bought aapl calls @4.35.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
I dunno man , AAPL looks like it’s about ready to fall off a cliff to me.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:49 pm
sold aapl calls @ 4.70. It tanked first and I was sweating a bit, then it roared back
Somebody just sold 400K shs of GOOG at 532.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Was it a D print?
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Guess you can check it if you have 2nd level, or 5 min chart.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:12 pm
On the same token, somebody just bot 400K shs too….:)
I have bought 1000 shares of TNA at 35.78. I have a trailing stop on it of 0.60 cents of that price. Will ride into tomorrow unless I get stopped out. I am willing to loose 600 US$ on this trade. But I like this entry point for a long position.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Looks good.. This puppy can fly…
—– SRS —– trapped between the 50ma and Upper Bollinger band on the daily chart.
trapped between the 15 / 30 period moving averages on the 15min chart.
only have 600 shares….
if you go by the daily chart it is a perfect set up to blast higher. in this market, a perfect set up and the obvious are a bit scary sometimes. im staying with just 600 shares.
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:19 pm
short term moving averages also held higher lows