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2:03pm
Sorry, i’m going to be busy for the rest of the dya, but I will be buying SPY calls on 1020-1025 ranges… also GOOG broke down it’s bull flag, into a H&S.
12:33pm
Bears are breaking the 1042 level… if that stays this way we can expect this day to end RED which sould be a big blow to the bulls… you can take a short here with a stop above 1042.50. And go long at 1020-1025.
12:00pm
Stopped out at $379.40… with a 1.70$ profit per share..
11:58am
And now moving the stops up to 379.40$… very very tight stops here.
11:56am
And now moving them to 378.40$…
11:55am
Moving stops to $377.70 hence a winning position no matter what…
11:51am
First close above resistance on the 10 minute.. and i’m buying some BIDU here at $377.40..but i have a tight stop at 375.50 for a wait and see approach.
11:16am
BUY BIDU upon break of it’s descending resistance… you can also draw an ascending support line putting BIDU in a triangle, and short upon break of that, but BIDU might be too oversold..
11:01am
H&S on the 5 minute on the SPY.. means 1052 was the high today like we expected.. and we are range bound… we might see more selling. 104.85 is the breaking point.
10:46am
And now raising the SDS stop to 40.34$.. and there we go.. a nice 0.25% profit.. on that one.. I still think we have more upside though… but a gain is a gain.
10:45am
I’m raising my stop on SDS to a profitable position no matter what at 40.24$.
10:33am
Guys we are at 1051 and while we breached 1052 for a moment.. the market has not managed to hold… you can take a short here with a stop above 1052… I’m going to go ahead and buy some SDS at $40.20. A break of 1052 means we go long.
10:28am
This market seems to be wanting to break higher.. we have tested the 105.20 on the SPY 3 times now on the 5 minute… my guess is a shoot higher thus giving the bulls a chance to rally this market. BIDU long above 379 looks like a good trade to me.. I’ll be taking a jab at it then, otherwise… i’m waiting…
10:16am
For those of you trading LVS… we seem to be having a very clear down channel on this name… and even though it might not look like it’s steep.. LVS can lose another 10% before hitting the bottom of it’s channel:
10:13am
And now we got another small push lower from the 1052 level… the bears under this level are still in control. My guess is that we might be range bound today with 1052 being resistance.
10:04am
Wow strong push in the last 10 minutes… that to me suggests some bullishness, i’m waiting for 1052 to break to teh upside before doing anything though, the bears should be trying to defend these levels… otherwise we might be in for another rally.
9:55am
The only reason I would go long, is due the Dow Jones holding it’s megaphone trendline of support. You can play that, but not the S&P.
9:49am
I know people are really eager to trade today because volatility is definitely on the upside now… but sometimes you gotta step away and take a look at the big picture. And the big picture says, it’s hard for me to go long until we see an additional drop today.
12:21am
hello everyone
looks like we open green unless the euro does an early morning plunge.
It should be interesting. I’ve got 3 possible scenario’s in mind for the final bell tomorrow.
A) we close, down 2.5%+
B) we close, down less than 1%
c) we close flat, maybe up or down 0.2%
Can’t see any other conclusion, which definitely doesn’t mean it couldn’t very well go completely differently but I would be very surprised. What goes on from the opening bell to the close I have no clue whatsoever.
Wait you basically covered every possible scenario with your A,B,C hahaah. I think idan is right… if we fall to 1020-1025, buy the market hope for a H&S formation. If we don’t reach 1020-1025 anytime in the next few days we might be in for another potential rally.
Thanks for the reply Steven, and that makes sense to me. Idan is quite often right on the money, I do agree!
China pulling us out of recession,put your dow 10000 hats back on
CIT down 11% in after hours action.
Bad CDO and CDS – Enough of those mixed in with CIT to negatively effect many aspects of the banking and financial sectors:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/item.php?&itemid=1125415
Forget about havin’ a logical discussion ’round here brother. One of the biggest mortgage lenders goin’ bankrupt is bullish. Mega, mega bullish.
Had me going ‘M’!
Oscar’s new video is out; basically, as he says, “something is wrong with these markets and they look like they are starting to falter here.” It is going “to be hard to move forward.” Should be noted (as he does in the vid) The Transportation Average broke a major channel down, but also failed to break above again..
Embedded here:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=465
Who is oscar and why is he yelling? he should apply for the televangelist
position vacated by Billy Mays.
Whats with all these bipolars in stocks? Cramer and Oscar need to get
scripts for valium filled. Larry Kooklow needs to rediscover drugs of a
moderating type. Is coke use that prev in stock guys?
Or is the irritant burning rectal itch ?
Hahaha
Why are you giggling? NO ONE GIGGLES AT THE ZOHAN,
NO-BODY !!!!
Zee, told you the mini open rally would not hold, they could not even hold
the futures up, lack of buying interest, gold will do ok, not the underlying
stocks but the actual boo-yawn.
Which broke did not allow a short of CIT last week? Its an optionable
stock so shorting is permitted. My limited to 14,000 on the borrow without
fees due to demand (usually a bad sign !!!)
CIT is just not shortable unless you have contacts with the specialist or Route Maker himself.
The new fear indicator is gold. Up 16 in premarket.
The danger is dollar hitting the skids and plunging beyond fears. . . and everyone is ignoring
the Hog Flu impact. Pandemic can bankrupt insurers and gov’t alike.
Higher taxes dead ahead. Gold and short the S&P is the way to go.
this is an awesome site…does anyone know of similar?? esp for options traders?
thanks in advance
lots of guys/gals here trading options
morris any ideas here
I only have one position right now (4000 shares of QID) and I feel good about it as a longer term play. I’m going to wait until at least mid-morning before making any other moves.
new to the option game…win some lose some. trying to get some ideas/plays on what others are doing.
thx
How high do you think we can rally this morning.? It’s probably up to the dollar.
I dont think that it will be a significant rally. I will be keeping an eye on volume today. We might just form a big bear flag and drop tomorrow to form a short term bottom.
I believe this would coincide with Zee’s cycle analysis calling for a November 3 turn date.
The made up headline to explain today’s action will be “Stocks rise on Ford earnings, China Manufacturing data”
sometime these cycle dates can be off a little i think.
Not more by a couple dates.. at least in the past 8 months.
Opening Bell!!!!!!!!!!|
GO BULLS!
Idan, the time needs to be fixed on this blog!
Bought 20 SPY 105 calls @ $2.00
Stopped out of MWN at 33.8, will re-enter in the low 33′s if we get there today.
my trailing stop was too tight. The market spiked and quickly reversed. oh well. Net on the trade was 11.5% for my entire trading account.
transports and tech looking weak this morning
well, they were until that impressive push upwards just now!
Idan,
Where are you looking to cover AMZN? thanks
I covered the AMZN short on friday, i have sold 120 naked calls on AMZN at $5.90… i’m thinking of holding it to OPEX.
Still holding 1K shares of ICE from the mid 90′s. Earnings out tomorrow. Just need some cooperation from the overall market to see this baby pop. Hedge is 1K shares of EDZ. Had 1K shares of TZA, but stopped out on Friday. GLTA.
hey zee there is no way this could be a nov 3rd top right?
Ok, you mean like a 6-week LOW in the market, but a 12-month high because you expect the market to drop in the next 12-months kind of thing?
I don’t think so..
I gotta go.. GLTA
Still having fun holding shorts? I posted the warning on Friday two hours before market closed.
I’m sitting nicely now on a quick $5k profit already.
I escaped some pain and got out on this thrust up.
Might get squeezed some more. I still believe the trend is down but this might be a wave 2 starting to take back some of the downside. I’d rather be positioned for a big wave 3 down, and that means I’m willing to take some pain for it.
Wave 2 has the potential to wipe out almost all of your gains from wave 1, just something to keep in mind.
Fritz- I agree, which is why I took a lot of profits at the open this morning.
Good economic numbers markets are rallying
Wow, I hope you closed that EDZ position on Friday as I advised.
Yes i did Morris thank you for that advice..Im waiting for a good entry later on today if we keep rallying..What do you think or shouyld i wait until tomorrow.
I am waiting and watching right now. I don’t plan to enter any shorter term trades until later in the day (if at all). Best of luck!
Anyone else having issues with Strategydesk again ???
I called TD ameritrade and EVERY single software is down…
Perfect … am blind w/o my charts ..
Idan – I know you use the same for your charting…how do you function in these scenarios ?
I use 3 different softwares…. I think not having it right now is good though the market is very very ambiguous…
If today ends with a big green bar, I’d get out of all of my options except for my protective calls. The reason is after two huge bars (one big red, possibly one big green today) it’ll be theta burn usually (and timing is perfect as FOMC meeting starts tomorrow).
Zee – What is your next cycle high date? Will we make a new low after this next high? (I’ve see this said elsewhere).
Your thoughts are appreciated.
NO, this is the final low of the year.
somebody stole my lucky charms
Mondays and Wednesdays are my busy days at my real job so I will be out most of the day. Best of luck to all!
Potential P3 alert! Check out this site http://www.urbansurvival.com. I think their work is fabulous. It might seem off-topic at first, but not the case at all. We may be entering one of the scariest times we’ve seen in years. Everything is lining up for a catastrophic event that could initiate P3. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. I would bookmark this website and make it part of your daily reading.
LMAO were 5% off the highs of the year and were in P3?
Read my post again Zee…..and stop laughing. It says potential P3 alert. Let’s see how hard your laughing when this thing gains some traction. I’m sure many were dancing and laughing just prior to the burning of Rome. Arrogance is no defense for unseen calamity!
Dollar looks to be following market today rather then visa versa. This needs to be the end of the equity rally or my EUR/USD trade is going to come unglued
Highlights
Coincident and lagging indicators, not leading indicators, gave a big lift to the ISM’s manufacturing index which jumped more than 3 points in October to 55.7. Employment, a lagging indicator, was a standout, at 53.1 for a nearly 7 point gain to indicate, at a plus 50 reading, that manufacturers actually added to payrolls in the month. The rise in the workforce is in response to output needs as the production index, a coincident indicator, rose more than 7-1/2 points to 63.3. Inventories, like employment a lagging indicator, also gave a big lift to the index, rising nearly 4-1/2 points to 46.9 as the destocking phase in manufacturing moves to a restocking phase. Price increases were steady in the month, showing little change at 65.0 vs. 63.5 in September. Delivery delays were also stable, at a moderate 56.9.
The major leading indicator in the report, new orders, showed month-to-month improvement but at slower rate for a second month in a row, at 58.5 vs. September’s 60.8 and August’s 64.9. The latest reading points to a lower month-to-month percentage gain in October for durable goods orders which jumped 1.0 percent in September. This is a major offset to other gains in the report, suggesting that forward momentum is not accelerating. But markets are definitely accelerating in reaction to the report, with stocks and commodities shooting higher, especially oil which has jumped more than $1 in immediate reaction to $78.
Brian Shannon in 5 min..
http://www.stocktwits.tv
—- SRS —- $9.83 is the 20ma and when it held that i jumped in. managed a fill $9.87
—- HAR —– take a look at the daily chart lol. it is one im watching. what a squeeze.
going to use a $0.20 trailing stop. sadly i did take a few hundred shares for over the weekend in case we gapped lower. a few banks failing aint gonna do it.
—– FUN —- $10 NOV PUTS. patience pays off ?
——- LACK OF LIQUIDITY ——- in the markets will lead to greater swings. the FED pumped up the volume but as retail investors slowly pull out because they need the cash to survive, we may just see choppier swings.
Retail l investors pulling out? you gotta be kidding me? There are NO retail investors left after the 2008 carnage. Those who have money are scared shit to invest.
The only time Retail investors would come is when they see employment close to peak and every thing rosy and dandy IMHO.
Jon, you nailed it beautifully.
Idan, do you believe there is another shoe to drop in the financials… they just don’t seem to be participating post JPM earnings announcement in much of any of the upside. I know the deferred tax assets thing has been floating around, but are you hearing anything else?
This market has a nice inverse H&S that broke out today… we moved up to 1052 on the SPX… a retest of that would be around 104.50 on the SPY… If we fall below 104.50 and sustain it.. then yes.. i would go short, there should be another huge shoe to drop…
But now.. too early to tell. The market can still make new highs. Like i said early today 1052 is the top and we are range bound between 1052 and 1042… a break of either side would mean continuation on that side.
For me, no fresh shorts will be entered today or tomorrow. I will enter them on Wednesday, only on overbought stocks. This opex is going to be awesome for me as I may go right back to making thousands per day during opex week. The previous three opex weeks (August, September, October) were terrible as there were no clear direction or good enough probabilities.
Woo!!! you out there? what are you thinking?
Tried and failed at the 1052 resistance yet again. I increased my short percentage the last time it hit, so now I wait and see.
UCO approaching 200MA again after thursday. It needs to break it convincingly for OIL to go higher.
Yes – watching carefully !!
Idan – what is your tgt on BIDU breakout ?
My first one is 388 (if it breaks to the upside) – are you thinking this goes higher than that ?
It doesn’t matter if you have a stop…
But no.. i don’t see it going to 388 today… i see it only as an intraday trade.
Sold 20 SPY 105 calls @ 2.32, bought @ $2.00 at open.
SPY keeps bouncing off 105, I decided to take profits.
Sold half of my Nov VIX 30 calls at open, bought fri @ 1.05, sold @ 1.50, holding the other half as a hedge against upside plays. I’d be thrilled for the VIx to drop back down below 25 again, even if I close the balance of this position at no gain…the violent upside action has me licking my chops for another run at it.
—— MARKET IS MOVING QUICKLY. —— SRS alreaady above my avg. cost. stop is in place. it is looking more and more bullish on the daily chart. esp the way it pushed back strongly off the 20ma and the RSI looks ready to break above the 50mark.
however…. the volume in this spot is extremely light.
STOP MOVED UP to a profitable trade
BIDU seems to be forming either a bearish flag or pennant.
GOOG forming a ditribution diamond again.
let’s see what eod brings.
Financial will be the downside leader that is going to drop hard. buying FAZ is a good idea.
I tend to agree…C broke 4 today….
bought 1k @ 22.95. $.60 trailing stops may be tight for today but I’m playing with profits from an earlier trade.
idan…
since your post on LVS..it’s bounced around..what do you see it doing today? targets?
bought a small position on it ..just curious as to why you signaled it out.
thanks..and awesome call nonetheless.
I singled it out because people were talking about it on friday, but nothing too special about it just a clear down pattern.
RIMM is getting hammered…Idan, do you see any support before it completely fills the gap from aPRIL?
Well i see the FEB gap support…. there.. but RIMM is going to have a lot of problems..
——— MARKET SWINGS ———- just crazy
Bizzare action today… like I said digging down into it ISM data isn’t so great, but even so a headline number as good as it was and GDP last Thursday, yet market doesn’t seem to be able to sustain much upside, particularly in the financials. Something smells awfully fishy to me. I’m wondering if there is another shoe to drop out there… I know there are some more Galleon type issues that are out there from friends in the business, but I’m not sure if that is enough. I’m wondering if some financial insitution might be tettering on the edge that the general public does not yet know about. Just idle speculation at this point, but something doesn’t feel right… and that VIX spike on Friday was way out of line with the % drop in the mkt.
——— SRS ———- expecting some consolidation in the $10.20 to $10.35 area
loosened my stop to $0.30 behind the closing prev closing high for 15min candle
CHA CHING
GS went red.
The small caps are DOWN. The smart money is selling folks.
Just went short..
EUR/USD trying againt to crack a trend line. If it looses this trend line here the markets will turn red as the EUR/USD falls towards the 50% fib again
can anyone tell me if Combust on the 5th or 6th if that is a turn date or a positive or negative for the markets
the is also and important currency meeting on the 5th or 6th one that has not be held since 1985 when they wanted the dollar to decrease in value.
Just added some more SRS and a medium sized position in SDS. I think we close in the red.
WOW, As soon as I said financial is leader to the downside, FAS start crashing down. I see this market crash hard. It has to get to a comfortable point before we could condsider going long.