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02
Nov
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Follow me on Twitter: korenidan87
2:03pm
Sorry, i’m going to be busy for the rest of the dya, but I will be buying SPY calls on 1020-1025 ranges… also GOOG broke down it’s bull flag, into a H&S.
12:33pm
Bears are breaking the 1042 level… if that stays this way we can expect this day to end RED which sould be a big blow to the bulls… you can take a short here with a stop above 1042.50. And go long at 1020-1025.
12:00pm
Stopped out at $379.40… with a 1.70$ profit per share..
11:58am
And now moving the stops up to 379.40$… very very tight stops here.
11:56am
And now moving them to 378.40$…
11:55am
Moving stops to $377.70 hence a winning position no matter what…
11:51am
First close above resistance on the 10 minute.. and i’m buying some BIDU here at $377.40..but i have a tight stop at 375.50 for a wait and see approach.
11:16am
BUY BIDU upon break of it’s descending resistance… you can also draw an ascending support line putting BIDU in a triangle, and short upon break of that, but BIDU might be too oversold..
11:01am
H&S on the 5 minute on the SPY.. means 1052 was the high today like we expected.. and we are range bound… we might see more selling. 104.85 is the breaking point.
10:46am
And now raising the SDS stop to 40.34$.. and there we go.. a nice 0.25% profit.. on that one.. I still think we have more upside though… but a gain is a gain.
10:45am
I’m raising my stop on SDS to a profitable position no matter what at 40.24$.
10:33am
Guys we are at 1051 and while we breached 1052 for a moment.. the market has not managed to hold… you can take a short here with a stop above 1052… I’m going to go ahead and buy some SDS at $40.20. A break of 1052 means we go long.
10:28am
This market seems to be wanting to break higher.. we have tested the 105.20 on the SPY 3 times now on the 5 minute… my guess is a shoot higher thus giving the bulls a chance to rally this market. BIDU long above 379 looks like a good trade to me.. I’ll be taking a jab at it then, otherwise… i’m waiting…
10:16am
For those of you trading LVS… we seem to be having a very clear down channel on this name… and even though it might not look like it’s steep.. LVS can lose another 10% before hitting the bottom of it’s channel:
10:13am
And now we got another small push lower from the 1052 level… the bears under this level are still in control. My guess is that we might be range bound today with 1052 being resistance.
10:04am
Wow strong push in the last 10 minutes… that to me suggests some bullishness, i’m waiting for 1052 to break to teh upside before doing anything though, the bears should be trying to defend these levels… otherwise we might be in for another rally.
9:55am
The only reason I would go long, is due the Dow Jones holding it’s megaphone trendline of support. You can play that, but not the S&P.
9:49am
I know people are really eager to trade today because volatility is definitely on the upside now… but sometimes you gotta step away and take a look at the big picture. And the big picture says, it’s hard for me to go long until we see an additional drop today.
12:21am
Market rolling over. Strong bounce off Yearly bear market trend line , snapping of bullish trend lines over this last bear market rally. I’m starting to look in terms of next support rather then possible new highs. I see the next major support at 1014 then 998 . That is also where a number of small trend lines are converging. I think a drop to this area is highly likely. We will then see if the market can find another bounce before the bull 23.6% snaps.
Once we breach 1020 I will be placing a stop on my FAZ and unwinding my EUR/USD trade. If we break down past the 23.6% bull fib I expect a fall to the 200sma around the 935 area at that point. So I will set my stops loose at first and then tighten as we approach that line which should provide good support for a bounce.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Good plan. I’m watching for a possible bounce at Idan’s 1020-1025.
(Glad I held my FAZ this morning…)
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Ditto here. Had to smoke a joint and relax when it rallied up 140 but glad i
did (medical user for memory loss).
the 3 inside reversals will soon have another addition, i don’t think anyone outside
of Japan has ever seen 3 in a month?
Richard, nice buy on SRS this morning. I jumped in DRV at 20.35. Not quite the low of day, but not too bad right now.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
thanks
WOW HERE IT COMES BABY
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:54 pm
This mornings rally might have just been a bull trap and to shake out the weak hands that were short. Stock tock community was smarter than that. Good job folks.
Moving stops to profitable positions.
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Now watch it rally to 1055 lol
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:00 pm
I don’t think so Chacro, I think we’re okay, and will close in red, maybe substantially!
Market is tanking.
EUR/USD just broke that trend line I was speaking of and fell like a waterfall to the 50% fib. Now you will get some fighting around this level I suspect.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
EUR/USD lost the 50% fib , now we retry to find support at 1.47475 , if that fails we head back to the 61.8% fib (which has provide thus far good support) at 1.47028
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Back test of the 50% about to complete , then the market should be ready to head solidly lower.
the major trend line was slightly broken to the north earlier above the 1040s to hit a fib in the 1051 area, but then the dip back below it is pretty significant. there may not be a chance to recover that line from this point forward. this really may mean the beginning of the P3 has already started.
market is a bit oversold, but there’s still room to drop, coudl see 1029 short term… that’s the next fib.
i drew lines down to 1007, that could be where we’re headed…for the first set of moves…
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
I like 1007 area for a bounce. Right in between my 2 fib lines and convergence of various short term trend lines.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:12 pm
I like 1007 too, that is my target. We will stop dropping at that level for sure.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
good times. always good to get confirmation from others. thanks for the update.
so the 5 minute was really oversold. 60 minute was getting pretty oversold. so we need some consolidation and bouncing.
the 1035.67 area is a 50 retrace of one of the rises to 1100 peak on the 60 minute and should hold or at least create some resistance. i don’t think we break back above that trend line to the north. if i look at it accurately, it looks like it’s at around 1048 or so? correct me if i’m wrong, but we only broke above it to hit the fib, and now it’s very unlikely to go back above it.
here are some fibs that may become significant in the near future:
1034.91
1029.71
1024.52
1034 area and 1029 already have with 1029.71 area being where the market just headed down to before bouncing.
the more these become significant, the more 1007 is a short term likely drop point, doesn’t mean it won’t go lower than that point, just means we’ll see it.
for bulls to still have a chance they need to push this sucker up back above that trend line and above some major fibs in that 1052 area. that is NOT going to be easy.
Just picked up a small position of DXD at $34.46
were are all those snarky bulls..?..
trend has obviously changed..buy the dip has become sell the rally…
hello primary 3
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:20 pm
I still think it’s a good time to start buying long/calls for the long-run as we are getting closer to the bottom.
The bottom is November 3rd (+/-1 day). IMO we bottom this week.. and it could be on Fedday.
I’m invested long for the next 2 months and I am very well aware of the 2-4% drawdown on my equities and 20% drawdown on calls.. I don’t care so much about +/1% movements as I think the S&P is going to 1201 by Dec 30/09.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:27 pm
that would be really interesting…
i don’t know if we’ll see 1200 because that would mean a strong overextension of a 5 of 5 wave movement (if this 666+ move is a 5 wave, and i think it is), but i could see us moving higher than where we are. can’t count the bulls out just yet.
i’m still playing the market by day, until i get strong confirmation one way or the other. good luck!
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Bottom?….many bulls will call bottom durin p3 like many bears called top during p2…
the fun is just getting started sir
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
totally agree gm. if the market were this easy to call, we would all be rich by now, and so many people wouldn’t be telling nightmare stories of june/july when the market shot up ridiculously when everyone thought the top had come in. there were also a ton of people calling for a lower bottom at 666 spx.
never get overconfident, and always tread with caution.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
woo I remember to the day when you called a bottom…I believe you were at 664 but we all jumped in a few points early…I had 25,000 shares of fas at 2.65 or something and GS calls out my butt…If I held I would have been very well off. I will not make the same mistake during p3..I will just continue rolling out my puts a few months ahead all the way to a new low…
thank you for the bottom call in march..are you ready to call the top at 1101?
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:04 pm
haha thanks for remembering. i actually i think i called 666-667 exactly. i have to look back and check though. it was all math though, and everything lined up so perfectly. i remember i sold all my puts there perfectly, and bought a TON of calls there. only problem was, if you remember, there was a HUGE drop passed the 61.8% retrace after a huge rise from 666. it freaked me out so much, that i sold out of my calls, for a small profit, and missed out on the HUGE rise right after. LOL. that’s what i get for doubting my charts haha. i got back in later, but it wasn’t as good position as what i could have had.
i’m not ready to call a top yet. i think i need this week to rework some charts to get a really good number, don’t want to lead you guys wrong. the 1118 chart hasn’t been taken out just yet. i’ll see what i can put together.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
It goes both ways…I made a ton between july and oct and lost a ton in the last few days but in the mean time I lost a lot of hair and got older faster than I should
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:20 pm
My nerves are starting to fray. Smoking more pot to calm nerves during
these violent shakeouts.
Sold my YRCW shares last thurs and was thinking of getting back in this
am. Still shaking, came that close to dumping 75% of invest cash on that
move alone.
Sold my TKO.TO on friday only to see it up 20% today DAM!!!
today does not qual as an inside reversal due to higher close but it came
dangerous close to giving a horrible sell signal.
I just keep thiniking we have some type of impending doom? Not wall of worry stuff, something big about to hit market between the eyes on a
fundy basis?
RIMM took it up the rim 2day and shows just how over owned the
tech sector is. It could ride all the way down to $25 as the smart phone
sector is so over owned. Dot com all over again?
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Market can change direction at any given moment. I took Friday’s “buy” signal and positive dvergence to get in some call positions. I did very well in the morning spike (quick $5k profit), kept some SSO calls to hedge while getting rid of the rest. Now the short shares that I held are doing well, too.
I’m sure we’ll get more spikes like the one this morning, and I’ll treat those as my scalping opportunities.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Fritz, we were watching things last week thinking of you….good for you for putting it out there, and thanks for the postings, also. Amazing turn as you said…
Dunno if any of the rest of you saw that , but it was a beautiful “pause” in the markets both equity and forex for about 10 seconds there before resuming downward.
Wow, my QID position was red for the day when I stepped out and now I see it is green. Wonderful!
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Morris, You should not step away anymore so I can make money
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Sorry, stepping back out again
I wish that I had more time on Mondays and Wednesdays to play these intraday moves.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Good Job Morris, qid has been a good one for me…
I sold my FAZ now with a very quick profit. I would buy FZ again once I see a fake rally at the end of day.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Thanks for the heads-up Sam. I got out at 23.74 for a tidy profit… FAZ at 23.33 as I type. I also like your thinking of looking back at it later.
———- SIMPLY AMAZING ——– how they were able to manipulate the futures higher and pull some bears out and then tank this thing again. never ceases to amaze me how much this market can be manipulated.
——- SRS —– looks like i did the right thing picking the entry at the 20ma
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Feels like second half of 2008 when you can always short any spike in the morning and ride it down until 3 pm ET. Those were fun times to be a permabear.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Don’t you know the market cannot be manipulated? There is no such thing as the PPT. Listen to Morris. He knows everything.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Ha M, I’m still waiting for you to make some trading recommendations! I remember that you suggested being short over the summer months and boy was that ever good advice.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Short smart-assedness.
Didya get the SRS or FAZ at close morry?
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Uh, am I morry? I was just responding to the smart-ass comment from M with some light humor.
And if you scroll down a bit, you’ll see that bought ERX @ 41.00 about 30 minutes before the close.
made money on my wfc calls. lost a little on my goog calls, still holding amzn puts. hoping to get out around 114 if possible, but maybe i’ll just sell at EOD. amzn is doing the best with about 25% profit at the moment… the other two i basically broken even between them haha.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
this market is playing the bulls like it played the bears 1 month ago.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:08 pm
haha tell me about it.
if the market breaks down here we could see 1024 and 1019. i’m hoping it takes my amzn down with it. i was driving to work when the major trend line broke. wish i had gotten in with SPY puts at the mid to high 1040s lol. i need to start driving to work at 6 am…
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Right on Idan. Role reversal.
Once the bears become complacent its time to switch
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Since when is a 7% sell-off in a 60% rally a role reversal, when the average sell-off since March 9th was about 6-7%?
Give me a 10% sell-off since March 9th, 2009. Bears have failed.
Give me a clear break of 1014. Bears fail
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Bears have not proven anything until 1020 breaks to the downside… this correction is for sure stronger than the last 3, but for now we have to think bullish at 1020-1025 for a potential H&S right shoulder formation.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Exactly…… long at 1020 is risk 1% and reward 5-10% depending if you believe we have another leg up.
————- SRS ———– i can see this one stopping around the double top area and having a rest before powering through the key $11 area. not expecint the power through to happen today but im ok with it.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:40 pm
stopped out of SRS
According to Ed’s EW analysis last thursday:
http://www.dcradio700.com/schedule.html (38 minutes in)
Taking out 1035 on the SPX was a strong indication the top is in. He labeled March lows till Oct’s high a B wave,, Saying this could signify the start of the C wave..
BAC hit long term trend line and bounced.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:21 pm
where do you see it from here?? up off the bounce at spx 1020ish then a sell off hard to 12 after fomc???
oh..i hope to god you ain’t texting while driving..
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
hmm…i bought a call position at .60 for BAC $15 calls in november.
15.85 and 16.95 above here are areas to watch. below is 14.12.
break below 14.12 and i’m out. i’ll consider taking out my calls if 15.85 hits again.
fas seems to be holding. xlf broke south of a long term trend line after 4 hits or so though…
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
think we hit 13 in LVS today, so i can get out..
Amazing volatility a day traders dream,if your on the right side that is.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:25 pm
3Xetfs are the dream vehicle to play in these moves..I will wait for the 10X ETF now
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I can’t imagine the stress level owning a 10x ETF 3 times is bad enough..:)
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:38 pm
LOL. The volatility decay of a 10X ETF would make it worthless.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
Not if you pick the right direction.
Why is UCO making a huge move in the last 20min! it just spiked
erx looking like it could go north more here. above 50ma. bounced off a major trend line.
Faz back down near 23…Sam when are you looking to get back in?
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Back in 1000 @ 22.67…
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
out at 23.06 may play one more time today.
SRS ———— got stopped out while having a nice talk with my wifey . im glad it triggered. sometimes them stops just get blown through.
FUN ———– still have my puts
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
eariler post … thought it was strange that no volume was coming into SRS. seems the volume picks up on the sell side. burnt bears want out?
was expecting a consolidation to occur in the $10.20 to $10.35 area of SRS which is about the 1040 area on SPX. maybe we get that going into eod.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:50 pm
———– BGZ …………. have an order to fill at $20.26 that expires this week. guess im expecting a bounce that would outperform what happened.
————– FAZ ————– SRS ————— id stay away from these for a bit. the short term charts ( 15min ) looking a bit sickly. im staying out for the right entry. USE STOPS
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
SRS consolidation above $10.40 so far… interesting. this is more bullish but im still not entering a trade.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:09 pm
looks like im going to re-enter the trade $10.45
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
very tight stop….. $10.36 …. it either pushes higher now for the C leg up or its all done the imho. going to trail the stop tight into end of day
Here’s my portfolio. I’ve been averaging down on a couple of my longs.. they are unhedged.
I will average down 1 last time if we dip to the 1020 area. If we break 1014, I’ll go flipping crazy
LT Portfolio:
SYMBOL POSITION PRICE SHARES EQUITY
SPY Dec 112 Call (L) $76.25 400 $30,510.00
DOW Long Stock $23.73 420 $9,976.60
AFL Long Stock $41.00 480 $19,690.00
CYH Long Stock $31.66 620 $19,639.20
AMD Long Stock $4.57 4320 $19,752.40
RIMM Dec 80 Call (L) $33.00 60 $1,990.00
WFC Long Stock $28.00 300 $8,410.00
UHS Long Stock $56.61 250 $14,162.50
MRK Long Stock $31.15 250 $7,797.50
PG Long Stock $58.30 150 $8,755.00
TWX Long Stock $30.12 300 $9,046.00
SSS.V Long Stock $0.12 10000 $1,210.00
Bought aapl puts @5.80
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
sold aapl puts @ 6.20
if SRS goes up in 3 legs…… $11.25 area could be the next target. im still trailing my stop for this trade and will get out of most of it eod. ill only hold 200 overnight.
SRS is now my only position and im mostly day trading it. less stress
still all in 100% short since a week ago today. Got a feeling we close 1/2% down across the board. Sell off coming in the next 15 minutes methinks!
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
hope yer right……. SRS stop moved above entry point … can’t lose unless of course the order slips.
I may take a small position in ERX around 41.00 to try a scalp on another push upwards.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:28 pm
400 ERX @ 41.00
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
boom, up 2% already!
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:40 pm
good buy. i posted in 19 that it should pop. good times.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Yep, I wish it would really run here so I could close it before the EOD. I don’t want to hold it overnight.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:01 pm
holding overnight
doji day?
WHO IS MORE SCARED TO HOLD into tomorrow… that will determine direction. BULL or a BEAR could be getting chopped up in these moves.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:35 pm
My thoughts exactly Richard. I think we’re seeing a head fake at the moment that will reverse in just a few minutes.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Bears will be bolder…the bounce off 1020’s will be fun.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Im not convinced that this is bearish. Looks like shorts unwinding their positions into the close. We’ll see.
huge flare to 105.5+ on spy earlier…
i tried to get in at spy call 104 strike at 2.38, and it jumped to 2.60 before i knew it lol.
————- STOPPED OUT ———— SRS ……………. no re-entry. im mostly neutral on this one for the consolidation to complete. im more bearish but i have ZERO overnight poositions.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:37 pm
62% retrace of the move today would, alas, bring this instrument into the consolidation area ive been looking for $10.20 to $10.35 zone
MAYBE …. JUST MAYBE ,,,, if 20 banks were closed over one weekend we would have a limit down day LOL. not one limit down day in the past year … an amazing feat
Tomorrow @ 10 is factory orders, not too important, 2 pm auto and truck sales, Wednesday the big FOMC. I don’t think the bulls want to hold their positions above 1025 going into Wednesday. Not trading based on this, just a thought.
woo,
final thoughts for the day??/ do we still test 1020ish this week?
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:47 pm
there was a HUGE flare north on SPY. and another large flare after that. i think there’s a chance these could play out tomorrow…
slightly oversold, but not a huge amount. i am going to play calls into tomorrow. this 1041 area may hold into closing.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:48 pm
but the market could always end up opening lower, before those flares play out. also flares aren’t an exact science, but flares that large have been playing out for the most part.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
as always, insightful..
if i didn’t know any better, i would think you and idan are alter egos.
damn, way to go guys!!
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:55 pm
i’m still kicking myself for not getting in at the 1035 level. i could’ve sold at EOD for a nice profit chunk without worrying about holding into tomorrow, or at least having better position.
we’re still in between two trend lines, so it could go either way into tomorrrow.
got my SPY calls a little while ago. up slightly. bac calls up slightly. fairly small positions. this is no area to place large bets yet in my opinion.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:56 pm
i sold my amzn puts earlier that i had from friday for about a 25% profit, decided i didn’t want to deal with being in between fibs without decisive moves. will consider a call position at $14 for amzn, but we’ll see how i feel and the charts look when we get there.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Woo,
What is a flare?
Thanks
Well just look at that. Everyone (DOW, S&P, NAZ) are all nice and green. What a co-inky-dink. That of course means a red day tomorrow.
areas to watch are 1034-1035 to the south, and 1050 to the north short term. with all the gaps there are no guarantees we don’t just blow passed these areas though. good luck =P
Wow, not what I expected at all, but we still have 9 minutes to go. Lets see a sell off!
——- SRS ————- im putting a bid in at $10.18 that expires tomorrow in case i sleep in. that is what makes sense to me.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Sounds good to me.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:00 pm
clearly im feeling a little BLIP UP in the SPX in the morning to 1045 or so and then down we go. hopefully im up in time to watch the show and adjust my order and put in any necessary stops. for now i have this order placed.
I expect an up start tomorrow and a slow bleed through out the day to close flat and mixed.
What a joy ride that was today !!!!
Overall today is a big and unexpected OUCH for me and other shorts. Nevertheless I remain 100% short and holding all my positions going into tomorrow. Still a bit ahead since last Monday. Still not too worried, if this is all the powers that be can do with great news from Ford. Anyway, I hope you bullish guys made some money today, I’m eating in tonight, canceled plans for the steak&lobster+champagne dinner out with my girl, but she understands… I think.
That rally was dollar related IMO..
I bought again some FAZ but not a lot. I hope to see a gap down tomorrow to make a quick profit and then going long to make another quick profit to the upside. What I see recently in market is that we don’t have a sustain neither a rally nor a drop. I don’t know for how long this could be the case but that is the way it is now and I go for it. Even if tomorrow we don’t get a gap down as I am expecting I won’t sell my FAZ beacuse FAZ is ready to fly up in near future.
Read some of the postings on the Yahoo FAZ Boards. it’s ridicouslous how many newbie amateur investors are saying they’re buying FAZ because they expect a crash..
The bottom is likely already in. GLTAS.. your going to need it this month.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Zee, thanks to you and others on this board I have converted from a perma-bear to market neutral – watching technicals and talking what the market is giving.
Also, as an amateur I am learning to use my initial impulse as a contrarian indicator: For example I bought 1k FAZ at 22.95 today, then another 1k at 23.84, near what ended as the day’s highs. I should have ran from my greed impulse and SOLD rather than added! I got out with a net profit from that trade, then watched the charts and got in again at 22.67 – support on the 5 and 10 min charts, then got out at 23.07. Too early…the upper trend line which was my technical target showed 23.27-ish, but as an amateur I got nervous and left $200 on the table as it indeed spiked above 23.30 several times.
I’m now hoping for a test of 1020’s tomorrow – I’ll roll today’s profits into 100 Dec SPY 115 calls for under .30, and then I’ll cheer on any rally while I position myself for ‘The Fall’.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Well, in this case, I think those newbies will get lucky.
I’m hearing way too many bears trying to get fancy timing another bounce here. This is not the time to get fancy. Make sure you have a substantial short position and add to it on any strength. Market is very vulnerable right now and I see considerable selling off in the near term. Don’t miss it by trying to get cute.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Unlike most people who argue that there is still a lot of money to be deployed which will keep a bid behind this market for the next 6 to 12 months, I feel there is a risk that people who are actually in the green for the year may find incentive to protect what they earned, and on the heels of a 60% rally there is little rush to jump in and buy into a small correction going into year end. The lack of volume throughout the entire rally since March means any sizable profit taking could seriously challenge the progress made to date.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Skiggy;
Profit taking happenned in July and it is happening now -where have you been?
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:52 pm
zee I doubt you’ll be posting on this board 3 months from today..
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:57 pm
and by the way the bulltards can be found on the FAS board talking about s and p 1250 by the eoy…
so it works both ways..if your long the market because of the bearishness on a faz board then grab your ankles
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:00 pm
goldmansuchs;
Zee and many other post their trades here..do you care to do the same?
The true bears on the board, S135, Shanky, Mohan have dissapeared so far..are you next
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
+ Uner..
Uner was def. a perma bear.
Go back to April-June.. He gave a zillion cases for the bear case.. I admit I really liked them (mostly because of his aesthetic charting skills and not the content, lol). I’m not sure what happened to him, he used to be Mod here and poof he dissapeared.. I hope he’s doing well.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:39 pm
I miss the perma-bears. BEARGASM BEARGASM BEARGASM. LOL!
Shanky posts on his own blog but now he lives over at Kenny’s EW blog. The rest of them, well, who the hell knows. They probably got sick of being mocked for being wrong about the market. It’s a shame people feel inclined to mock others when they are wrong. I am perfectly content being right and making my money.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Being right or wrong about the market isn’t really relevant, what counts is whether you’re profitable as a trader.
This morning was a prime example of that. I bought a bunch of call options thinking that today we’d have a big green bar, which was what my charts and simple fibs were suggesting (I can’t do the complex fibs that woo does). I was right up until SPX 1052, and then the market slowly bled down. Right then I sensed danger and got out of my call options for $5k profit. What happened later actually surprised me. So I was wrong about the big green bar that was not meant to be, but I still have $5k to show for a spoiled effort.
I will not be 100% right all the time, but what I try to do differently is to quickly adapt to the fast moving market so that I don’t lose. We all need to learn how to adapt to the market instead of trying to force our trades on the market. Best of luck!
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:15 pm
The problem with a number of the uberbears that were here earlier in the year is that they wouldn’t bend in their views of the market no matter what the price action said. The would spin the charts and TA to say what they wanted them to say. It was hurting the site because people would come here and see a bunch of terrible calls day after day.
Who wants to visit a site where the opinions on the market are consistently wrong?
People that were here during that time know that I asked over and over again for more balance on the site (as I was one of the only bullish posters here during the summer months). I think I pissed some bears off during that time but I don’t care. Even Zee was bearish then as I remember him asking me to justify being long. Anyway, I think we finally got some balance because the uberbears just threw in the towel at some point.
So, while I do hope all those guys are doing well, I think the site is as good now as it has ever been if not better. You can look through the posts on any given day now and see very good trading ideas that fit a variety of different styles and levels of risk.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:56 pm
haahha yes, I still remember that 1 post too Morris!!!
Not ever going to forget it.. you were one of the only longs when the market was ripping higher.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:28 pm
my puts..
60 spy december 80’s
20 spy december 90’s
40 spy december 95’s
60 spy december 100’s
12 spy jan 100
20 spy march 80’s..
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:16 pm
I’ve been here since JAN 2009 !
I have called every cycle top and bottom since August so get your facts straight. I have charts and postings to prove each and every one of my calls. Don’t believe me? Go to ST photos and view my cycle charts. They have been bang on everytime..
I called a bottom on Sept 3rd, 3 weeks in advance.
Check the ST postings/archive on SEPT3RD to see how everyone doubted me that we were bottoming. I’m serious go check. You’ll see the same sentiment you see today. Disbelief that we were going to go higher.
I called a bottom on Oct 2, 3 weeks month in advance.
Check the ST postings on OCT 2ND to see how everyone reacted to me saying we were bottoming.
I am calling a bottom on November 3rd, and I have been doing it since Oct7th, 2009.
Check the ST postings from October30-November 2nd to see how everyone does not believe me that we are bottoming and are likely to atleast retest 1100.
Will history repeat itself. Most likely yes.
Here are my bullish points.. These are not emotion statements.. these are facts.
- We still have FED DAY, THANKSGIVING and SANTA CLAUS RALLY ahead of us.
- NOV/DECEMBER ARE historically BULLISH MONTHS
- The CYLCE LOW OF OCTOBER 2ND (1020) still has not been taken out.
- The $CPCE is at its highest level since all 3 previous CYCLE LOWS (MARCH 9TH, 2009, SEPTEMBER 3RD 2009 & OCTOBER 2ND 2009)
- We have had CIT bankruptcy and the market is UP 0.8% on that news?
YOU, CRAMER, AND THE WORLD IS BEARISH.
What does that tell you?
THE WORLD IS HOPING FOR A CRASH BECAUSE THEY’RE PISSED THEY DIDN’T INVEST AT 666.
What does that tell you?
EVERYBODY IS EXPECTING 1020?
What does that tell you.
My final words.. It pays to be a contrarion.. This is the time to be one.
I HAVE MY STOPS AT 1014.. are we getting there, the answer is NO.
Can you give me technical fact we are going to 900? No you can’t except for that wedge breakdown.. Well I’ll counter what about the parallel channel? Technically were still in a parallel bull channel, no?
Technically you sholdn’t even use 666 in TA because it’s an outlier no?
..
give me a cold hard case that the bear is here to stay.. you bears can’t even sell-off more than 7%.. pathetic.. atleast the selloff in july was 8%.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:40 pm
Cramer was very bullish last spring.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:30 pm
you sound like you want a cookie..
alls I heard was blah blah blah blah ..i’m right i’m right..bull market to the moon..give me a cookie cause I was good…
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:55 pm
It’s my track record and it’s not too bad.. why not be proud of it? I mean i’ve worked bloody hard over these past months.
I don’t see any charts or analysis on your part?
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:00 pm
Zee, I don’t always agree with your calls, but I will say that I absolutely respect and appreciate your willingness to share your work here.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:03 pm
what kind of cookie do you want?…
I have chocolate chip or oatmeal..
you really sound like a child…I could care less about your track record…there were guys on this board who made and lost forturnes lon before you came along…everyone that gets hot for a few months thinking he can’t lose and has everything fig. out..while most of them go broke…a few guys remain..idan/woo..
your really nothing but a bull flash in the pan to me cookie monster…enjoy your beating..its coming soon..
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:42 pm
I’m the one who sounds like a child?
Who’s the one talking about cookies?
Trading account is in high cash, IRAs heavily short still.
I expect a wave ii to take us back to near the GDP highs. This will shake out the amateurs thinking we are moving to new highs. I do not expect us to take out 1100 SPX for a while though. The market trend is down until price action proves otherwise.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:08 pm
Charco;
What do you mean by “market trend is down”? Just curious on how you qualify a down trend since you have risked your retirement money on the short side.
thanks
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:10 pm
A few quick facts.
1.) I am about 40 years away from retirement.
So I am taking some risks and learning the ropes now. I use 3x etfs on my trading account which is more or less shits and giggles money, not big money like some of the other folks here. I do not use 2x or 3x usually on my IRA.
2.) I use a system-based trading scheme from a website that signals trend changes using the value line arithmetic index. Comparing week over week changes and volume. Their signals are more than 50% accurate, and using trailing stops, losses are fairly minimal, but when they are right, they are really right. E.g. buy signal 3/13. some bad whipsaw signals in early summer, then another buy in mid july. The most recent signal- Sell on 10/26.
3.) I put the above system in an Elliott wave context. I wouldn’t be shorting if I didn’t expect an imminent P3 (we might already be in it as many believe). If we crash 1500 points on the dow and confirm P3, and then a buy signal is fired a week later, I probably would just move to cash and wait for the next leg down. Conversely in a bull market, I wouldn’t short, I would simply move to cash on the sell signals and wait patiently.
4.) I always use and currently have trailing stops all in profitable prices on all of my short positions, so with this trade I’m guaranteed profits. I typically dont risk more than 4% on my IRA trades initially, but my trailing stop might be wider. People risk that and more with a buy and hold strategy in my opinion.
Wow that was longwinded.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:49 pm
I agree 100% Chacro, the trend is indeed down and should continue.
I picked up some more call options towards EOD. The DOW, SPX, Nasdaq all locked in “sell” continuation, but I am not really looking for a continuation to the downside. I still hold shares short, so realistically I don’t care. What I am really looking for is a surprise to the upside, as the reward will be greater. This is evident in today’s drop after the initial spike up. The spike up (according to my charts) was expected, but the drop was a surprise. If you shorted at SPX 1052, you would’ve made lots of cash real quick. That’s wht I am hoping for going into tomorrow.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:10 am
Fritz – can you elaborate on what signals you look for in the “buy:” and “sell” … so that we can understand this better for those of us who are swing traders …
TIA ..
anyone playing SRS should be watching SPG. if you aren’t already. something is going on with that pos stock. Look at it last Friday when SRS was trying to bust out. srs was actually going down as the market was. crazy. I sold out of my srs today at 10.86. my cost was averaged at 9.55.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:06 pm
You are correct about the SRS, something was fishy that I did not understand and I think Richard was suprised too.
IMHO this commercial crash is over blown. This summer I drove around the US (10K miles) and I was surprised to see construction in the private sector! Hotels, restaurants etc. In my town Central California-one of the hardest hit housing sector- we have two brand new shopping centers with grocery stores along with a new walgreens, MCD and others.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Good to hear Jon. I made a trip all around Southern California where I live and found the exact opposite. Closed business after closed business up and down each street, along with for rent and vacancy signs all over the place.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:33 pm
this guy is flat out full of shit if he lives in california and says business is good and is seein new construction…come to irvine and see millions of sq feet of empty office space ..next to thousands of condos unfinished…you bulls are in for such a kick in the teeth..you’ll all deserve it too for jumping on the last 5% of a 55% move…
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Well Good Luck.
Seems your very diversified with this portfolio:
60 spy december 80’s
20 spy december 90’s
40 spy december 95’s
60 spy december 100’s
12 spy jan 100
20 spy march 80’s..
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:05 pm
who said that was my portfolio…those are the options pos. i hold in my trading account…you have 0 idead how much cash I hold. If i hold any etfs or if I hold any investments.
by the way in a time of massive deflation like your about to see..being divers. doesn’t work..
i’m tired of this convo.. by Jan 1 will fig. out who can get all puffy chested my lil cookie monster..
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Yep, agreed 100% GS. I think some people are living in a fantasy land wearing rose colored glasses.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Its a joke..when people start to justify a bear market rally with “better then expected” earnings based on cost cutting not top line rev. growth then yap more about losing less jobs then expected and GDP based on govt. spending you know nothing but bad is coming..
Its all good though ..we need bulltards to buy and hold dips all the way down even when it is clear the trend has changed
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Very true GS, this is absolutely NOT an organic rally by any means. Could it go up, sure, but I truly think not, at least not for a few months at least.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:09 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVZjgqK5i4hY
wilbur ross is not one to take lightly….
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Yeah, he wieghs over 300#.
Fix ur clock doode!!!
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:49 am
goldmansucks ! chill out dude.
You sound pissed man! I would too if I missed the rally and kept shorting and loosing. Very few here are prema-bull or bear, but the majority just follow the trend.
Mohan, S135 and Shanky were great when the market was going down and we all benefited from them, but they were too attached to the downside and lost their way.
Keep the mantra “The world is ending” so others can eat your lunch
Ok, Goldmansuchs. Let’s stick to facts and technical analysis.
I have posted my bullish $CPCE down in the StockTock photos. Do you have a counter-argument against it? How do you explain the fact that so many investors are buying puts.. Since when have the majority of investors been right at market reversals? This is the sole reason why I don’t believe we are at P3. Goldman hates when the retail guy profits from the falls..
BTW, do you have any technical analysis charts of your own?
Can you post your intraday trades?
You love to talk but yet you fail to give us any valuable insight we can use except saying this is P3 or were going to 750.
I have posted my track record, not for my own benefit, but for others to see that Cycles are no bs and they have worked in the past and should not be ignored.. I post my technical analysis in the ST photos. I don’t post on emotion, I post on what I see. And what I see is a small downtrend that is unable to take out the Oct2nd low. If we take out the oct 2nd low, I’ll get bearish, until then I have to buy the dips.. thats what the chart tells me.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:11 am
zee, i subscribe to a mr. jim shepherd, you can look him up. and he has not call the crash yet,
he has a model that takes interest rates into account and gives them a value and right now interest rates are too low, but if the go up too quickly or too far that could cause a crash,
my guess is like yours the gov. and gs will exhaust all the shorts and put buyers until it is time to bring the market down, but our gov. and gs. are not all powerful and can’t do this forever, but maybe till early next year.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:25 am
I searched him up, he has a good track record. I assume hes market neutral short-term and bearish long-term?
I don’t expect interest rates to increase until end of 1Q.. As long as interest rates are low banks are going to make lots of profit. They receive money at 0% from the Fed, and then proceed to lend it out to borrowers at 5%.
The market, theoretically is due for a major correction in 1-2 months time due to a very big cycle peak that should technically happen first week of December. I am not ignoring the bear, I just think for the month of November it’s best to shy away from it because we are entering a new bull cycle. Who knows how high we’ll go?
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:37 am
thank you, for your work.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:44 am
Zee, I am new and have no idea what I am doing, I just learn from you guys.
Fundamentally, 3.5% GDP seems a great number for economy, and could boost 10% up for stock market. But on the second day, SP sank 2.8%.
Today ’s low 55.33 on IWM is lower than the low (57.53) Oct 2 and close to the low (55.21) on Sept 2. Roussel 2000 show double tops with trend reversal signs for both MACD and RSI. It also falls off the wedge support. Please help me understand if these signs can be explain potential market topping and trend reversal? It could be sign that market slightly drops first following a big moves up?
A currency trade is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another one. The currency combination used in the trade is called a cross (for example, the euro/US dollar, or the GB pound/Japanese yen.). The most commonly traded currencies are the so-called “majors” – EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.